Lol - I thought the only “Williams” was "Larry - until someone mecntioned “Bill” a while back - so now we seem to have a “Tom” as well.
So we have a “prile” - I’ll Brag ! 
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Crashes are things that have always interested me. Usually, I like to read the trading media like Yahoo finance, and it is amazing what you find when you do sometimes. Late last year, the stock market tanked, and went down by around 20 percent. Right before it went up was when I started to read articles on Yahoo finance where some hedge fund manager was saying we are in a bear market. They were all the sudden coming out of the wood work and trying scare people. I always think that if they were actually selling, there is no way in heck that they could ever afford to tell every other idiot in existence to sell as well. If they did, they would seal their fate, and they would no longer have any capability to sell. So, you probably see where I’m going with this. They were coming out of the wood work, because they were busy doing massive buy orders. They were working to scare the masses so that they were sell to them. It is the story of how the rich poor gap just keeps getting wider. So, just keep in mind that if the market is going to crash, most likely, at that time, the stories in the media will be positive. That is because people like those hedge fund managers are selling. So, it’s no wonder that the dumb money of the world just can’t predict crashes. There are some cool fundamental data out there that can actually help to tell you when a crash is more likely to occur. Banks have a tendency to start to tighten on their lending a lot not long before a crash. This helps to squelch economic activity in the US debt based financial system. So, they actually help to create the crash. Now, I doubt they do it on purpose. They just see risk and react. But, you might think of these crashes as a vicious cycle with many factors that feed in to create it. It is strange though that most people out there have no idea how much banks actually end up causing crashes to occur. Now, on the other end, usually you really do have an overvalued stock market at that time. Stock market valuation is tricky. Some people use P/E ratios or whatever. But, I somewhat think that the real valuation is only really seen during crashes. and that is only really an rough estimate. Before a crash, the market is over valued. After the crash, it is under valued The real value is somewhere in between. Now, the real value of the stock market runs in some way along with the rate of inflation. So, it certainly increases with time. Anyway, there’s a lot of money to be made in crashes. What a fun time to come.
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Now, here’s my personal opinion about predicting crashes. I really don’t think anyone really predicts the top. I don’t really even think that the banks know. It is just a point where the market goes down. Now, that is not completely true. I think there are a lot of insiders who may actually know pretty early on. These are people who should be in jail. After the market goes down about 10 percent, and it is floating around sideways, this is the time, I think that the banks get wind of what is going on. This is where I think you can consistently predict crashes if you look at the right data. Then, you can buy put options in the stock market indexes. If you are right, soon after, you will see a big job cut on the Nfp. When the market takes the steep fall, and the VIX spikes, this is when you options will become incredibly overvalued. Index option values spike with the VIX. So, when you get that massive VIX spike, and it hits maybe 60, you take your profits. Then, after that, turn around and put that money back into the market and sell cash secured puts in the indexes and wait for the recovery. Now, as for right now, I don’t realistically see any signs of a crash to come. But, things can turn around fairly fast. So, maybe in the next year to two, we’ll see.
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The biggest single chunk of change I ever made speculating was in the October '87 stock market crash.
I was loaded for bear with October puts on the OEX, purchased when they were out-of-the-money.
I cashed out in the late afternoon of Friday, October 16, because that day was options expiration day.
The crash that began that Friday was nice (for us bears), but the drop that day was only about one-fourth of the real crash, which occurred on the following Monday. I sat out the Monday crash entirely. I knew that I had been been greedy enough the previous week, taking huge risks and getting away with it, so I was content to bank my winnings and watch from the sidelines.
I was trading through a small brokerage in Washington, D.C., at that time, having followed my broker (a buddy of mine) to his new firm when he changed employers. October '87 bankrupted that D.C. brokerage, the circumstances of which I once knew, but have forgotten.
A couple of months later, my broker-buddy was selling water filters in some sort of multi-level-marketing scheme. He called me one evening, and laid the hard-sell on me to join his water-filter gig. I declined.
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Wow. Some fantastic posts appearing on THIS thread let me tell you.
Could it be that we’re starting to “trim the herd” here??? LOL!!!
Will comment more shortly. And for sure going to find my “October ‘87 Crash & Comeback” and upload it. Should be of interest to some (if only for nostalgic purposes) (even although I wasn’t around it still gives me chills as does all of this) (not to mention that all of this still has bearing today mainly because we’re human, have a propensity to repeat the same mistakes, and fear and greed will always be alive and well).
Found it. Always the last one under the pile huh!!!
For your enjoyment: CNBC’s October '87 Crash & Comeback.
Lovely to see some of the classy old timers again e.g. Wolker, Greenspan, and good 'ol Leo Melamed there.
P.S.
If it gets deleted by Messrs. YouTube & Co. because CNBC has issues I’ll upload to my Google Drive (if this happens and I don’t notice then please just let me know).
Hey.
Didn’t realize you’d been at this for as long as you have. I think I’d only been WORKING for three years when this happened.
But nice to know a bit more about you. And thanks for the great post. Matter of fact the Friday to which you refer is given a mention in the video.
Hey.
And where have YOU been hiding on these forums??? LOL!!!
Most impressive (both your posts).
Hello.
Let’s see:
We have BILL Williams, LARRY Williams, and now we have TOM Williams!!! LOL!!! Pretty sure there’s a few more Williams’ around!!! LOL!!!
Love your posts on the topic.
Am going to start a thread today for Bill WIlliams’ MFI, VSA, and hopefully will get some contributions re: Wykoff etc. Pretty sure there’s something very sweet in all of this.
Nice seeing good 'ol Maggie there again. Been wracking my brain trying to think of something Billy Connolly said about Thatcher and her not wanting “an unelected body pharting about with finances of this country” with reference to the House of Lords and the single European currency!!! LOL!!!
Well, that was interesting. — A whole, bloody pissing contest deleted, like it never happened!
Talk about erasing the past — the very recent past, in this case.
I read your deleted posts, and can’t figure out why they were deleted. They were quite entertaining, in my opinion. I have no problem with pissing contests, even when the piss flies somewhat off-topic, as long as the fight is generally respectful, actual ideas (rather than ad hominem attacks) are offered up, and the writing respects the intelligence of the readers.
Your little dust-up met all of those criteria.
Anyway, your posts are now obscured from everyone, except those curious folk who go to the trouble of clicking on the little red “edit” counters in the upper-right corners of your deleted posts — and then try to read what you wrote through the red screen that covers it (hint: use your mouse to highlight it in blue).
As for the past, and especially the '87 crash, I’ll conclude this ramble with one last thought —
"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
George Santayana
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LOL!!!
I didn’t realize that posts could still be read after being deleted. So pretty pointless deleting them then I guess.
I deleted mine because my friend there deleted his for some reason so mine looked ridiculous out there on their own.
Oh well. Should make @Falstaff’s day if he happens to mosey on over here again!!! LOL!!!
Nice quote. And obviously I agree. As was stated during the pissing contest!!! LOL!!!
And I assume you saw my reply to you and the video. Not that you HAVE to watch it. But it did take me THREE HOURS to rip it from my DVD, convert it, and upload it!!! LOL!!! But no worries. Glad I found it i.e. a lot of my stuff I cannot find since having had to move not so long ago. Found my copy of “Floored” too yesterday so all good.
Wasnt a pissing contest. Get out of that kind of thinking. Was some sort of call to sanity. But calls to sanity are rather useless these days, hence deleted.
Uh oh. Do I need to upload my popcorn GIF now or can I pop out (no pun intended) to the shops first??? LOL!!!
Exactly. I rest my case.
Sorry. Couldn’t help myself!!! LOL!!!
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Watchout at shops, coke doesnt cost a nickel these days anymore 
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Damn right. It’s a travesty. See: this one of the reasons the World is in such a mess. But I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before a bunch of people get together and start rioting in the streets and burning things down and protesting about the price of Coke. You know: go burn down Coca Cola’s head office and depots. Then complain because there is no Coke on the shelves and when stocks are replenished the price has gone up. Or throw bottles of Coke at Law Enforcement and expect them to say “hey thanks for the Coke” as opposed to retaliating.
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Sorry, I meant to thank you for the '87 Crash video. I thoroughly enjoyed it. Thanks for posting it.
Your video was a chance for me to re-live an exciting event from the past — one that, for me anyway, had a profitable outcome.
Among the many blasts-from-the-past in your video, it was interesting to see Bill Griffith and Sue Herera, as they appeared back in the late 80’s. I used to watch Bill and Sue on the Financial News Network back in the day. Interestingly, they are together again on the Nightly Business Report, which I frequently watch. Bill has aged pretty well, but Sue (unfortunately) is about twice her former size.
Don’t know whether you’ve seen the Nightly Business Report. It’s highly US-centric, so possibly not of the greatest interest to you. HERE’S A SAMPLE, if you want to check it out.
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You could not be more wrong!!! LOL!!! Trust me: big fan here. Thanks for the link. And sincerely my pleasure.
Hey. Here. Just for you. And roughly on the topic of our little interaction of last night too (about the population).
Guy’s name is Bill Burr. And if you want to get an insight into my personality then watch this dude’s stuff!!! LOL!!! He’s from MY generation. You know: ye olden days!!! LOL!!!
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Thanks for that, I was wondering who said it first 
I was a little surprised that it was deleted tbh, but I had taken a stroll over here last night and read it before they were.
I remember thinking (of your friend’s last post) “That’s interesting - I’ve never seen him play the ‘victim’ role so clearly before.”
Perhaps I should explain ;
One of the most popular Games in the world is “Drama triangle” and it is a fascinating destructive game. It used to be played often (but not always) by women often by playing two competing males off against each other - competing that is to “rescue them”.
The rules and definiion of “Games” can be found here
There are multiple reprints, and I find more clarity in the older ones in truth.
Karpman was one of Bernes students and investigated “the Drama triangle” - I don’t seem to be able to find his own work, but here is a half-decent one by “others”
By way of completeness, and if ‘Transactional Analysis’ intrigues you as it does me, here is a great book about the destructive effect Games have on people’s lives (especially children - highly recommended for those with small children)
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I do find it entertaining that the whole of “Group Identity Politics”, MArxism, and the “Postmodernist neo-Marxist Agenda” can so readily be understood in terms of the “Drama triangle”
Where we have ;
- ‘Victim’ - Any number of “Oppressed minorities” - Particularly the ‘women as teh oppressed’ so beloved by “Feminism”
- Persecutor / Abuser - Almost universally White males, often in the form of “Patriarchy”
- Rescuer - Various self righteous - SJWs, Feminist Activists, Multiple other “Campaign groups” purpoting to “Act on behalf” of their chosen “Victim” - often to the intense annoyance of the ‘members’ of that particular ‘victim group’ - who often have no particular gripe at all with their own lives. - This part is the “Twist in the tale” nowadays - the “Victim” doesn’t actually WANT to be “Rescued” - This intensely annoys “rescuer” since all “his” wonderful efforts remain unrecognised - We’ll have to wait and see how this “Plays out”
Now the irony of this particular Game is how the participants switch positions regularly
If you take a look at the “SQUAD” who are currenty demanding “Action against Trump” for “Racist Tweets”. See what they have said in other places about others and their intolerance for people who just want to be “brown” without actually campaigning for “Victimised browns” - that is just an example - she goes through multiple other “groups” in the same vain.
Anyhow, as I said, I was quite interested by your “friend’s” post.
Abd I see a different (more usual) instruction here to Clint in response to his perfectly reasonable post ;
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