Journey of an Amature

Two open trades at the moment.

First one is AUD/JPY opened on the 4th March 2020.Price was at 71.295 with target at 71.6, touching the EMA 50 line:

Things started well but, did not touch the EMA 50 line. Instead the trade went down hill. Still in the trade but long way away from entry and even longer from target. Will ride this out, see what happens.

Second trade is AU/NZD on a upward trend price is sitting above the EMA 50:

Entry was 1.04889 with target at 1.06. Got my :crossed_fingers: for both trades.

Not going very well, both the last two trades ended up hitting the S/L. Can’t seem t get the entry right and end up going the wrong way :man_facepalming:. Current standing for the month:

No open positions at the moment.

Some people think that forex trading can make them rich overnight. They come in and put their money in one basket without any strategies. They receive loses for being naive. They have to learn first before they can trade, its all about skills. if you dont got them then you are wasting your money.

Totally agree, if there’s no strategy then give it up now. I do have a strategy, just need to get the entry right which is letting me down.

Current open trades:

The three trades have all come home, all achieving their target. AUD/JPY and USD/JPY closed hitting the target when I woke up in the morning. AUD/USD took a little longer to get there however, this allowed me to move SL beyond the original TP target. Below is the current standing:

Current month latest:

Current open position:

AUD/JPY closed with 100 pips. Current standing:

Price is below where my trade closed but, I’m expecting it to move up again therefore, I’ve jumped back into the trade. Current open position:

The AUD/JPY closed with 79.8 pips, current standing:

Added another two trades which have now closed, bagging another 235.5 pips in the process. After a poor start to the month it is turning into a good ending to the month:

March is not over yet but, looking to carry this momentum into April :pray: :crossed_fingers:

March is gone and we’re in April. Not much happening, two trades currently open:

Still room for improvements, that trade USD/CHF opened just above the resistance line of 0.95 and look where I am now :man_facepalming:. I really should have waited to see if it drops below 0.95 before opening the trade.

It’s been a disastrous start to April, the USD/CHF closed 268 pips in the red:

Even the huge dissapointing number out for NFP wasn’t enough to weaken the $USD. Hoping this will only get better from here, have a lot to make up already. USD/JPY is still open though, that has also taken quite a swing. Was going really well then a sudden swing has lead to being over 90 pips down

It wasn’t a great start to April but, things are looking a lot better:

Current open position:

I hope I’ve learnt my lesson, I will be continiously referring back to this post on trade entry. Before I go further into it, below is current standing for month of April:

There is one position still open, it won’t be closed in April that is for sure unless it is stopped out overnight or tomorrow:

Back to my earlier point about trade entry, as you can see from above I took a 268.5 pips hit at the begining of the month, purely down to bad analysis. I took a short position on USD/CHF, see my entry point on the chart below:

With price previously having broken through the 95.00 barrier then jumping straight back up, there was another drop down to 95.00. Rathern than waiting to see if price breaks through 95.00 again I assumed that it will and jumped straight in shorting USD/CHF. Just have to take another look at the chart to see what happened next. Did I learn from that experience? No. That is the reason why I am still stuck in the only open position I have at the moment

Trade entry is my achilles heel. Having taken 268.5 pips loss on USD/CHF and then being stuck in EUR/USD since mid April, I have been working on where to enter trade, that work enabled me to end the month well. I must have done the same thing at the end of March but see to have a memory relapse at the begining of the month! I’m going to stick to this formula that I have been working on. Since I’ve opened the long position on EUR/USD, I’ve gone back to some analysis I had done previously and opened four new trades which all closed with profit, one of those trades was long position on AUD/USD.

I trade the H4 chart, looking at that chart I can see there was an upward trend, price was above the EMA 50. Before entering the trade I reviewed the daily chart where I can see there is an upward trend with price having just entered the vacuum between EMA 50 (green line at the bottom) and EMA 200 (red line at the top) as per the screen shot below:

With daily chart showing an upward trend as well as the H4 chart, I took a long position as per below screen shot:

As you can see from the chart, price has moved up significantly currently trading at 65.55, I had closed my trade after my trade encountered some resistance at 65.00 but, I believe that price will reach 66.00 where it will touch the EMA 200 line. That is a critical point and my belief is that if price breaks through 66.00 the trend on the daily chart will change course to an upward trend. Failure to break through will lead to price dropping again.

I used the same analysis for AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD. Though I have closed my trades, using this analysis all four trades returned 335 pips. Had I stuck to my instict and remained in the trades that number would have been significantly higher. However, I am keeping track of AUD/USD as well as the other three pairs that I traded to see if my analysis is correct. Wait for the next update, to see if AUD/USD does reach 66.00, if it does then what next?

AUD/USD did not quite reach 66.00, just above 65.50 was as high as it got and then there was a huge change in direction which saw price drop to below 64.00. Looking first at the D1 chart, you will notice two things:

  1. Price failed to reach the EMA 200
  2. The upward trend line has been broken.

Despite the upward trend line being broken price has not droped below the EMA 50 line so there could still be a bounce on this line (63.40) which could spark another surge up. If price drops below this then I’m expecting a drop down to the next level of support which is 62.00.

Looking at the H4 chart, I’m looking to short on this pair if price drops below the EMA 200:

It’s been a while since the last post, almost two weeks. I’ve not been trading this month due to other commitments however, have been keeping track on AUD/USD. In post 88 I said that if the AUD/USD price reached 66.00 then the trend on the daily chart would change, this initially did not happen and you can see that on my last post price dropped down as far as 63.75 which turned into a support zone. I also said on my last post that on the daily chart as long as price stays above the EMA 50 then there could be another surge up and that is exactly what happened:

Above is the daily chart, and you can see that price has reached 66.00 and has hit another set of resistance here which I expected. 66.00 is just above the EMA 200 on the downward trend, if price does break above 66.00 and finds support then there could be a move up to 68.00.

Below is the H4 chart and you can see that price did break through 66.00 but, could not find support. I believe there will be another push above following which 66.00 will form a support zone. Only then will I be going long again on this:

May has been a quiet month, with only four trades placed. Before I start looking at the AUD pairs I just want to go back to April when I opened a long position on EUR/USD at 1.0985. On a numerous occassions I thought about closing the trade however, I let it run with the stop loss set at 300 pips from the opening price. Since then the opening price dropped to as low as 1.0725 and at times I did think about just closing the trade and accepting the loss.

Instead of closing it I decided to let it run and run it did.It never hit the stop loss and and started recovering. It reached 1.1016 on the 1st May at which point I did think about closing it but, left it open. It dropped again to 1.08 before making another push up, breaking through not only the 1.10 resistance but also through 1.11, reaching a high of 1.1143 on the 29th May. I had already moved my stop loss to 1.11 at which point the trade closed with 115 pips profit after price had retraced from high of 1.1143. Must admit I was lucky with that.

Moving on to the AUD pairs, on my last post I mentioned that AUD/USD needed to break through 0.66 resistance and find support and that is exactly what happened. Below are my current open positions:

As you can see from the H4 chart below, price has found support above 0.66 and has rocketed up:

If the momentum continues then I am expecting price to reach 0.69

The 0.69 barrier got broken, AUD/USD price went through the roof reaching as high as 0.69815 where it encountered resistance. Price re-traced from there, dipping below 0.69 before bouncing back up again. I had already moved mo SL to above 0.69 and got stopped out during the early hours of this morning. Due to the re-tracement I lost out on 60 pips but, given I locked in 280.7 pips there isn’t much of a complaint from me. I also had open position on AUD/JPY on which I locked in 369.8 pips, bagging a total of 650.5 pips from two trades:

Current standing for the month:

If price does not dip below 0.69 again on AUD/USD I can see it reaching an high of 0.72. My current open positions below:

The two open positions on CAD/JPY and EUR/CAD have been closed. I must admit I panicked as the price moved on the opposite directionI decided to close the trades despite being well within my S/L, below is how it finished:

It was a mistake to close these as price has moved above my T/P on both pairs :man_facepalming:. I have opened two new positions as per below:

What started of as a good month is turning into a nightmare. AUD/USD broke through 0.70 twice, each time dropping below 0.70 immediately. The second time it dropped has had a significant impact, anticipating further move up and placed a long position and it back fired. I’m stuck in this trade, currently 156 pips down.

It was a classic error, rather than wait to see if a support zone develops at 0.70 I went straight in assuming it will. Unless a miracle happens I’m looking at being at the receiving end of a loosing trade as the trend appears to be changing with the AUD/USD currently trading at 0.6867/0.6868.