I hope I’ve learnt my lesson, I will be continiously referring back to this post on trade entry. Before I go further into it, below is current standing for month of April:
There is one position still open, it won’t be closed in April that is for sure unless it is stopped out overnight or tomorrow:
Back to my earlier point about trade entry, as you can see from above I took a 268.5 pips hit at the begining of the month, purely down to bad analysis. I took a short position on USD/CHF, see my entry point on the chart below:
With price previously having broken through the 95.00 barrier then jumping straight back up, there was another drop down to 95.00. Rathern than waiting to see if price breaks through 95.00 again I assumed that it will and jumped straight in shorting USD/CHF. Just have to take another look at the chart to see what happened next. Did I learn from that experience? No. That is the reason why I am still stuck in the only open position I have at the moment
Trade entry is my achilles heel. Having taken 268.5 pips loss on USD/CHF and then being stuck in EUR/USD since mid April, I have been working on where to enter trade, that work enabled me to end the month well. I must have done the same thing at the end of March but see to have a memory relapse at the begining of the month! I’m going to stick to this formula that I have been working on. Since I’ve opened the long position on EUR/USD, I’ve gone back to some analysis I had done previously and opened four new trades which all closed with profit, one of those trades was long position on AUD/USD.
I trade the H4 chart, looking at that chart I can see there was an upward trend, price was above the EMA 50. Before entering the trade I reviewed the daily chart where I can see there is an upward trend with price having just entered the vacuum between EMA 50 (green line at the bottom) and EMA 200 (red line at the top) as per the screen shot below:
With daily chart showing an upward trend as well as the H4 chart, I took a long position as per below screen shot:
As you can see from the chart, price has moved up significantly currently trading at 65.55, I had closed my trade after my trade encountered some resistance at 65.00 but, I believe that price will reach 66.00 where it will touch the EMA 200 line. That is a critical point and my belief is that if price breaks through 66.00 the trend on the daily chart will change course to an upward trend. Failure to break through will lead to price dropping again.
I used the same analysis for AUD/JPY, AUD/CHF and AUD/CAD. Though I have closed my trades, using this analysis all four trades returned 335 pips. Had I stuck to my instict and remained in the trades that number would have been significantly higher. However, I am keeping track of AUD/USD as well as the other three pairs that I traded to see if my analysis is correct. Wait for the next update, to see if AUD/USD does reach 66.00, if it does then what next?