EURCAD - does not move for a whole week and today, following my decision to syeer clear, drops almost 100 pips before bouncing back up to the 1.460 region . Can’t dwell on this too much and also it looks like the EURCAD will continue its decent down unless it breaks the 1.47 barrier and finds some support.
Gold is another one that does not seem to be going anwhere. It has been consolidating above 1410 since Wednesday but, now consolidating between 1400 and 1405 . Whilst it was consolidating above 1410 I was planning to go long on Gold providing it broke through the 1416 resistance barrier however, that did not mayerialise and it may be trending down. Will be watching this closely to see if it can find a direction.
Where shall I start today? Lets start with the disaster because I told myself I won’t do this but, I did it again
I wasn’t planning on trading oil but I ended up going short at 57.49 after markets opened at 11:00pm yesterday. I normally set my SL around 150 pips from my entry point and I’ve been doing this from previous experiences where I set it lower than that and have been closed out before the trade began to move back in my directo. Despite making this mistake during the early days of my learning and telling myself I won’t be doing that again I did just that yesterday. Instead of setting my 150 pip SL I set it at 80 pips and guess what happened…price moved against me and closed out my trade at 58.30. Soon as it closed my trade it moved back, surpassing my entry point and closing at 56.60. Instead of being down 80 pips I should have been up 90 pips . I would have been banging my head against the wall if it was on the live account, only god send is that I did this trade on a dummy account:
The loosing Trade:
Closing Price:
On my post yesterday I said Gold is something that we should be watching and we finally seem to have some movement. Price dropped down to 1400 before bouncing back up to 1426 where it closed today. Looking at the monthly chart gold has not been this high since August 2013.
Gold has certainly been the one to watch on Thursday. After moving up to 1426 at close on Wednesday I decided to go long on the trade, entering the trade at 1428. I set my SL at 1380, resistance level that has not been breached since mid June and TP set at 1450, a level that has not been reached since August 2013. I waited all day Thursday for the price to start moving up and thought here we go again when it dropped down to 1420 in the afternoon. However, price eventually started moving in the direction I wanted it to move, hitting 1450 TP whilst being out for dinner with the family. It was nice to come home and find 22 pips in the pocket, more positive pips to come:
Note to onself, a very important one too. When price is inbetween EMA 50 and 200 it is said that you continue with the trend. However, ensure that price does not drop below the lower band on a up trend or vice versa. This is exactly what happened the day I made a mistake with my SL on oil.
Two threads earlier I was complaining about how I got caught out by oil because my SL was not wide enough. That was one key thing, another which I did not mention at the time is that there was a clear change in trend taking place right in front of my eyes.
My point of entry was 57.49, on the chart below I can see the price had already tested the water below the lower band two candles earlier on the H4 chart and on the next candle it closed below the EMA 200:
There was some retracement after I entered the trade, loosing out on a trend down of almost 300 pips because the SL was not wide enough to cover the retracement.
I’ve gone over this again as I was looking at AUDUSD and I can see the same thing, only this time it is looking like the trend is changing from going down to moving up. Looking at the H4 chart, the first point on this is that EMA 50 had crossed over the EMA 200 starting an upward trend. The upward trend continued and price had broken through 0.705 before re-tracing back below this level. Ever since 0.705 has become a resistance level that price is struggling to break through:
The daily chart is showing that the EMA 50 and 200 are coming close together, if a crossover does happen then it will begin a upward trend on the daily chart as well. The key to this is can price break through 0.705 and find support. I’ll be going long on this pair if the 0.705 resistance is broken and finds new support. However, if the price drops below 0.7 then we could possibly see a continuation of the downward trend, down to 0.69 with the EMA 50 and 200 crossing over again on the H4 chart.
Yesterday I was talking about EMA 50 and 200 crossing over after price had broken through the upper or lower band, focusing on the AUDUSD. The pair hit a resistance at 0.705, had it broken through 0.705 it would have strengthened the case for a upward trend. However, the move did not materialise and price has dropped down to the 0.70 region (currently around 0.7004. With key data due out in 15 minutes there will be some movement however, once price settles and if it breaks below the 0.700 support then we could be looking at a shift down to 0.69.
I’ve decided to touch the subject of price breaking through the upper/lower band of EMA 50 and 200 because look what is happening to USD/CAD:
I’m watching this with keen interest because if price breaks through the EMA 200 band then we could see another trend reversal taking place. Preparing for a long position if price does break through and finds support. If it rebounds of the EMA 200 line then we will continue to see the downward trend.
In my previous post I was looking at the AUDUSD which was showing a possible change in trend had the 0.705 resistance been broken and that the down trend would continue if the support line of 0.7 was broken.
Price did not break the 0.705 to develop an upward trend however, it did break the 0.7 barrier to continue the downward trend. I entered trade at 0.6986 with SL 150 pips away whilst my TP was set at 0.69 and as expected price continued the downward trend. Being an amature, as soon as it had moved 20 pips in my favour I had moved my SL 10 pips below my entry, securing 10 pips and not allowing the trade to breathe. Following the the change there was a retracement which took out my trade with 10 pips gain before moving further down, currently trading at 0.6835…that should have been 86 pips to my initial TP of 0.69. It is currenly trading at 0.6835…150 pips
I also mentioned that USDCAD is showing an upward trend, price potentially moving above the EMA 200 as well as a potential cross over betwee EMA 50 and 200. Price has now broken through the EMA 200, aided by the rate cut announced by FED and the EMA 50 and 200 are close to crossing over:
It is very tempting to go into a trade however, with NFP due out on Friday I will wait until the market has settled after NFP data is released. Once the market has settled I will be looking at go long on this trade, could be looking at target of 1.34
On my last post I was looking at the USDCAD, price had moved above the EMA 200 whilst on a downward trend and EMA 50 and 200 were on the verge of crossing over, changing trends on the H4 chart. I wasn’t expecting the cross over to take place on Friday but, it did. Look what happened to the chart:
EMA 50 and 200 crossed over on Friday after the NFP numbers came out. Price did not get affected by the NFP numbers much and there was no movement yesterday either. However, it has taken off today, hitting 1.3290 before re-tracing back down to 1.3280. I’m expecting price to reach 1.34, providing POTUS doesn’t tweet anything that will spook the market.
This also is changing to an upward trend, EMA 50 and 200 have not crossed over yet but, on the verge. Another good long trade in the making, lets see if it follows the same pattern.
Things have slowed down quite a bit since my last post. I was looking at the USDCAD and EURCAD. EMA 50 and 200 had already crossed over on USDCAD and price had shot up whilst EMA 50 and 200 had still not crossed over on EURCAD. Since my last post EMA 50 and 200 had crossed over on the EURCAD too. Below are how things stand at the moment:
Lower highs have formed however, it is still on a upward trend. If price breaks above 1.485 and finds support I’m expecting the rise to continue, targetting 1.50.
Latest on the two currency pairs I’ve been tracking and there are two very different stories for both the pairs.
Looking at USDCAD first there was some retracement last week where the price had dropped significantly below 1.33, on 16th Aug it closed at 1.3260 which was just above the EMA 50. It looked as though the trend was going to change however, price accelerated up above 1.33 again today. I am expecting some retracement however, if it can find solid support at 1.3310 and breaches the 1.335 barrier I am confident the trend will continue up. However, if it fails to find solid support at 1.331 then I can see a reversal of trend forming:
EURCAD on the other hand has gone completely the opposite way. The trend up formed but, it did not last with EMA 50 and 200 about to cross over again on the H4 chart:
It has already formed lower highs and though today it made quite significant move up I cannot see it breaking through the 1.48 resistance. I am anticipating EMA 50 and 200 to complete the cross over tomorrow and move down to strengthen. I have set my TP at 1.46 but, there is a resistance point at 1.47 that will need to be broken first.
EURCAD has finally seen EMA 50 and 200 cross over again, changing to a downward trend and fortunately I managed to catch 30 pips having entered the trade at 1.4771 price had moved down to as low as 1.4704 before bouncing back up again. I had set Tp at 1.46 and shifted my SL to 1.4741, price did not breach the 1.47 support and bouced back up closing my trade 1.4741 and it currently hovering around 1.473 and 1.474:
It looks like there could also be a change in trend on the USDCAD which has failed to leap above 1.335, price is currently hovering around the 1.33 mark having gone down as far as 1.325 before bouncing back up. I have entered a trade at 1.328 but, as I have already mentioned price is currently hovering around 1.33, it has failed to breach 1.332 twice after it had dropped from high of 1.3346.:
Having seen the pattern on EURCAD, I have entered the USDCAD trade sooner than I entered the trade for EURCAD, hoping to catch more pips. It is still early days but, we will see where this takes us.
Whilst keeping an eye on EURCAD and USDCAD I had also entered a trade, over a week ago, on GBPUSD. I did not do any analysis on the chart, went into the trade strictly on a tip off that price would could be dropping down to as far as 1.195 as it almost hit 1.120 before bouncing back up. As well as a tip off, 1.195 was also being touted on a website which provide analysis on FX trades. I entered my trade at 1.197 and afterwards when I looked at the chart I had realised that 1.120 is as low as price has been in the last 10 years, in fact the last time it went this low was not even on the monthly chart.
Lesson I have learnt is that when price hits that low (or high), there is only one direction it is likely to go and that is the opposite way to it has been moving, and it is exactly what started to happen. Having waited for a week to see what happens, there was good economic data out of the UK which had set a upward momentum and today after the meeting between PM and French President price had jumped above my SL which was 150 pips from my entry point .
The momentum had changed on EURCAD but, it didn’t go without a fight as there was a sudden change in direction on 23rd August when price sky rocketed above the 1.48 mark, reacing as high as 1.4863. However, normality has been restored today as price went back to where it was before the spike on the 23rd August, currently trading as low as 1.471 and it is looking like that psychological point of 1.47 might be broken if not tomorrow then sometime this week:
USDCAD seems to be following the trend set by EURCAD. there was a lot of movement on this pair on the 23rd August related to trade war between China and US however, the weekend has given the market time to settle. USDCAD is currently trading around 1.3250 and price has still not dropped below the EMA 200 on the H4 chart:
That drop looks like it could happn very soon, and when it does I’m looking at the psychological point 1.32 to be tested, if this falls then 1.31 will be in line.
On EURCAD I was expecting price to drop below 1.46 and it did before jumping back up and reaching a high of 1.4766 this morning…something to do with new from Italy with a new coalition government forming may have had an impact. However, it is currently trading at around 1.475 and I am still expecting price to drop down back to around the 1.47 range again:
EMA 200 is still above the EMA 50, only just, and I’m expecting this to continue as the gap widens to carry on with a downward trend. Keep watching this.
USDCAD has seen a lot of volatility since my last update. On my last update I said price had not dropped below 1.325, day later price dropped below 1.3250 at one stage trading at 1.3224 and below the EMA 200 line:
It appeared to be the perfect setup for a trend reversal however, price jumped back up again, currently trading around 1.3308 after reaching high of 1.3319. I am expecting another drop down below 1.33, close to 1.325 where there might be some resistance. If this resistance fails my first target is still 1.32 followed by 1.315 then 1.31.
It spike up on 23rd August following trade war retaliation between US and China, I’m expecting this upward trend to continue and have a TP set at 1,600 whilst SL is at 1,525.
The gold trade did not last long, though it looked like a positive one at first with price reaching 1,550 there was re-tracement sending gold down to as low as 1,519 which is the weekly low, taking out my SL at 1,225. Looks like Gold will be heading down in the short term but, moving up in the long term.
Back to the two currency pairs I’ve been following, beginging with EURCAD has dropped below 1.47 again, dropping as low as 1.4687 before bouncing back up but could not break above 1.47. It is currently trading around 1.4695, I’m still expecting the trend down to continue although this could take time now with big data due out of Canada today (30th August) and next Friday (6th September):
USDCAD also appears to be moving down following the re-tracement which saw price move above 1.33. It dropped below 1.33 on the 29th August and has not managed to move back above this price throughout the day. Currently it is trading at 1.3285 the latest candle stick so far is showing that the move down is gathering more momentum:
Both, EURCAD and USDCAD, will have an impact when the Canadian data is released today. This could accelerate the down trend if the data is as expected or better than expected or could take some more time to reach the targets I am expecting it to reach.
Price is currently sitting below the 1.4650 despite the bounce back up, when the market opens again on Monday I am expecting the drop to continue.
USDCAD also dropped, below the 1.32475, literally touching the EMA 200 before bouncing back up again. The bounce back up was aided by better than expected economic data coming out of the US causing a spike up that saw price jump up as high as 1.3333. However, at close price had dropped back below 1.3320, despite all its efforts to keep up with the upward momentum I’m still expecting price to drop but, it is not going down without a fight:
It is only the middle of the week and a lot has happened GBP looks like it is on the up again though that could drastically change in the next month or so but, it is one to keep an eye on in the next few days.
Going to back to my analysis on EURCAD & USDCAD, there’s been plenty of movement on those two as well. I’ll start with EURCAD first where the 1.46 barrier was breached twice early in the week before it bounced back up again. Today, finally it has breached 1.46 but, not until after it reached a high of 1.4692:
This pair has been trading above 1.33 until today when price finally dropped, currently trading around 1.322. EMA 50 has started to point down following the drop suggesting that we could finally see that downward trend developing. This is defnitely not going down without a fight and if it drops below 1.32 we could potentially be in for a ride all the way down to 1.30
Both the pairs have been influenced by the BOC’s decision to hold current rates. There’s is still NFP and Unemployment rate from US and Canada out on Friday, there’s going to be a lot more movement on these two.
What a two day it has been for the two currency pairs I’ve been looking at. Firstly, price on EURCAD is hovering around 1.46 or just below, having dipped as low as 1.4554 before bouncing back up again. Momentum is still on the downward trend, aided by the stronger than expected data coming out of Canada yesterday (4th Nov 2019).
My target on USDCAD of 1.32 was reached this morning, closing out my trade with having pocketed 80 pips. I thought about going back into the trade however, with NFP due out tomorrow at the same time as Unemployment Data coming out of Canada I’m going to stay away from this one until Monday. Below is another trade I’m in at the moment:
The pattern on this is following the patterns I have been analysing on USDCAD and EURCAD, lets see where this takes us. I’m expecting the trend to change as price has risen above EMA 200 and it is shaping up for EMA 50 and 200 to cross over:
USDCAD has dropped below 1.32, currently trading around 1.316. The NFP numbers were dissapointing whilst data coming out of Canada was impressive which aided to USDCAD dropping below 1.32. I’ve not gone back into the trade as yet as it has it a support line at 1.315 and bounced up again. I’m expecting a re-tracement up to 1.318 before shorting again.
EURCAD is going strong and there could be further movement down this week when ECB decide what it is going to do with interest rate. It is currently trading around 1.455 having dipped as low as 1.4503 before bouncing back up. I expected this move up and now am waiting for another move down, which could possibly see breaking below 1.45:
My second trade, CADJPY is also going well, having accumulated over 50 pips and has hit a slight resistance at 81.50 which I believe will break having already breached it temporarily:
. Can’t dwell on this too much and also it looks like the EURCAD will continue its decent down unless it breaks the 1.47 barrier and finds some support.
. I would have been banging my head against the wall if it was on the live account, only god send is that I did this trade on a dummy account:
more positive pips to come:
