Commodities:
Coffee: Bull Rally expected We are waiting for coffee market to open tonight to go Long on a Double Bottom +Bull Engulfing candle formed on the Daily Chart.
Current Price (market is closed) is 95.75. Our stop will be below the day support level of 92.48 with a TP of around 100.00 (below the 61.8% of the last downswing)
Copper Cash: Bear Retracement expected: We have entered short based on the Daily Chart hitting the 161.8% extension of its recent rally from the 38.2% bounce. This level also shows a RSI Over Bought signal plus Doji Candles. Whilst in the 2H Chart we broke the short term Up Trend and entered the Sell Zone…
All in all we entered the following trade:
Sold @ 294.73
Stop @ 296.53 (18 points)
TP @ 288.23 (65 points just above the 38.2% fib of the current up swing)
Because we are basically trading against the prevailing Day trend, we are actually trading a possible retracement, our TP is somewhat “arbitrary” we do not have a Fib Extension to place it at. So in this instances as long as I can get a 2:1 min I can close this trade when I feel the market may turn alternatively I used a Fib Retracement as target, in our case this is the 38.2% which give us about 3:1 return…
Crude Oil: Bear Crown / Gartley:
I was happy when I picked up a nice short trade which surpassed my TP (25/2/19 avo). I entered upon a break of the most recent 4H Up Trend Line. Oil then went to hit the next longer term up trend line and of course bounced from it. This is giving us a Bear Gartley / Crown opportunity at the current 61.8% bear swing levels. Although I am not 100% happy with the “lack of candle confirmation” I still took the trade on the SHORT side as follows:
SOLD @66.205 (61.8% fib and possible Right Tip)
STOP @66.705
TP @ 64.705 (last low)
If this trade fails, I expect to trade the 78.6% possible right tip with a proper candle confirmation. I suggest to wait for this second opportunity or to be in the look out for a 2h - 4h candle confirmation at the current 61.8% levels before entering…I am a higher risk trader and prefer to enter a trade I have 50% + confidence than let an opportunity pass by.
Having said that, when I have situations like this, I only enter about 60% of my stake whilst I entered the remaining 40% plus a full 100% stake on my “safer trade” if the first one fails…
More of this in later posts…
Gold Cash: Heading towards 1,375 high?
Gold has been rallying nicely since 16th Aug 2018 bouncing of fib levels 62%, 79% and even 50% and 38.2%. Currently is sitting at the 62% of the most recent upswing, however the speed of the recent uptrend since Nov 2018 has been a bit “faster” than the rallies between Aug-Nov. Furthermore, this recent rally is accompanied by what I called a “3-point RSI divergence” (last 3 day-chart 4/1, 31/1 and 20/2 highs). This usually means a reversal or at least a break of such a trend line to “adjust the speed”.
In Summary: Wait for at least a 4h if not a Day candle bull signal at the current levels as long as the TL is not broken. If no such a signal and the market breaks its current Up Trend Line then we will be looking to enter short on any rallies or to buy a clear bull candle at a resistance levels (one of the day lows). Further analysis will be required but it should be defined in the following days… Keep an eye for updates on Gold Cash.
happy trading
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!! For me, though, it’s out of ignorance. I had seen some Gartley’s on a chart and it seemed interesting. I did the the googleplex, read some posts, watched some youtube, downloaded a PDF Book - forget which one - on gartleys and it was HUNDREDS of pages long, full of bats, boars, bears and all sorts of Rorschach patterns. For me, too complicated.
