T10 COPPER SHORT TRADE NOW @+4u LP 
T14 TUE28JAN20 AUD/CAD LONG: S/O -1u 
Entered long at the bottom of a range where AC has been sitting for a few weeks. Also, we had a 4H Bull Engulfing. However, I have given this trade a bit of room since there was a Day Hammer wick low sitting just below this range.
T17 WED29JAN20 AUD/USD LONG: S/O -1u
On a Fib 79% and a nice Day Harami, I’ve entered this trade Long. Although, I am kind of putting a double bet on AUD (long AUD/CAD and long AUD/USD), the signal was strong enough to consider adding this trade.
Wait and see…
30JAN20 ANALYSIS: COCO
A couple of possible scenarios with Coco. Since I missed out on the short, we might have an opportunity to enter on a Possible Bear Gartley.
Coco likes Gartleys, as shown, it had a Bull Gartley in the 4H Chart prior to the recent rally. So, if the Day Divergence which triggered the short (that I missed) at the beginning of this week, is to hold, then we could see this Bear Gartley forming around the Fib 61.8% or 78.6% (area marked in Red)
Wait and see…
The second scenario could see Coco heading up towards the 2 x 127% Fib Extensions (marked in “pink”) around the 2,115-2,127 area, invalidating the recents Day RSI Divergence (shown below)
31JAN20 COCO FORECAST ctn’d: TO SELL OR NOT TO SELL, THAT IS THE QUESTION…
Ok, so as per my prediction above, Coco went and hit the 78.6% Fib retracement level in the H4 chart pretty much by the pip! and retraced forming some sort of candles…but is this a “Strong Bear Candle Signal”? I don’t think so. If I am wrong, I simply will miss out on riding this Coco trade once again…that is the worse of it. If I am right, I will lose 1unit…had I entered.
Having said all of this, When I re-visited the Day Chart, I had been of the impression that Coco had formed a Divergence (shown in my red dot lines), however, this is (I now believe) NOT Correct!
The last 2 highs are not in RSI Divergence, both RSI and Coco price had formed “higher highs”.
CONCLUSION: I am 80% incline to believe that Coco will take “scenario #2”, that is, will head towards its 127% extension(s), at the 2,100-2,130 area FORMING A RSI DIVERGENCE in the process. Therefore, I should stay out until this happens…
I got to say though, that the 20% is quite tempting. Like I said many times, I am a punter, and I rather “risk to lose 1unit on a possible winning trade than missing out”…
Anyway, staying out for now…
T10 COPPER SHORT TRADE CLOSED @+6u 
T19 30JAN20 EUR/USD LONG TRADE H4 CHART: S/O@+1.5u
It hit a 162% extension on the daily chart plus a H4 Div. I am trying to ride the retracement of this long term down trend. Will exit and go short around the 61.8% area which is where I placed my TP for this Intraday Trade…
Note: The trades I based purely on Intraday signals have not been as successful as my entries based on either Weekly or Day Chart. So up to you to follow this one or not…Having said that, I am looking to change that pattern…
T20 31JAN20 USD/JPY LONG TRADE H4 CHART: -1u
Fib 61.8% on Day Chart with H2 Bull Engulfing candles and Divergence in both H2 & H4
Unlike T12 U/J Long trade, we now have the RSI Div on the Intraday candles and at precisely the Fib62. I only got stopped out by a few pips. As mentioned in some of my previous posts, “my success rate when entering earlier than a Day candle by using an Intraday Candle signal has been lower than using the Day candles”…So, I am looking at improving this rate by example of this trade.
If this trade still doesn’t work, then I will considering NOT using Intraday in the search for cheaper earlier entries (before a Day confirmation).
On the other hand, after a Day Candle (say Hammer), once can argue that only then you can look for a Intraday signal to give you that better entry, this however carries the risk that the market just takes off without giving you that chance. I am confident enough in my trading to take the Day candles signals unless it is well above 100 points (GBP/JPY 200 pips entry was not one to take).
Anyway, wait and see…
T21 31JAN20 COPPER LONG TRADE H4 CHART: -1u
A combination of a big drop in only a few days, plus Day RSI O/S, plus Intraday Divergence and Bull Engulfing Candles, let me to take this trade.
However, when once takes this type of trades, there is not a clear guidance on the Profit Taking location. So far I am looking at the 382% fib, NOTING that I AM BEARISH ON COPPER, just trading the retracement. I will monitor it closely, to see if it heads towards the 61.8%
The 382% is a 3:1 R/R
31JAN20 COCO FORECAST ctn’d: TO SELL OR NOT TO SELL, THAT IS THE QUESTION…
Ok, so as per my prediction above, Coco went and hit the 78.6% Fib retracement level in the H4 chart pretty much by the pip! and retraced forming some sort of candles…but is this a “Strong Bear Candle Signal”? I don’t think so. If I am wrong, I simply will miss out on riding this Coco trade once again…that is the worse of it. If I am right, I will lose 1unit…had I entered.
Having said all of this, When I re-visited the Day Chart, I had been of the impression that Coco had formed a Divergence (shown in my red dot lines), however, this is (I now believe) NOT Correct!
The last 2 highs are not in RSI Divergence, both RSI and Coco price had formed “higher highs”.
CONCLUSION: I am 80% incline to believe that Coco will take “scenario #2”, that is, will head towards its 127% extension(s), at the 2,100-2,130 area FORMING A RSI DIVERGENCE in the process. Therefore, I should stay out until this happens…
I got to say though, that the 20% is quite tempting. Like I said many times, I am a punter, and I rather “risk to lose 1unit on a possible winning trade than missing out”…
Anyway, staying out for now…
T22 FRI31JAN20 SHORT SWI20 INDEX: S/O @ 0u 
I have been waiting to short this Index but when it opened this week it had gap too much. Since then I missed out for a better price yet two other times. So I am taking this one.
T23 MON03FEB20 SHORT GBP/EUR: Closed+1u
Update: because I missed out in entering this trade early this morning my entry was quite late. As such I am protecting myself by moving to b/e early. If i get stopped out so be it. It has moved 50puos since my entry
The rsi on the smaller times are quite o/s
T26 WED05FEB20 LONG COCO H4 F50: Closed @2.5u 
Coco will be closed upon opening and reverse the trade to Short.
T27 THU06FEB20 GASOLINE LONG D1 DIV: SL@B/E
MON10FEB20: I believe this trade has further been confirmed by a beautiful Weekly Hammer, “Tweezer Bottom”, plus the fact that the bounce happened not only at a 127% Fib extension but a Week Swing 79% Fib Retracement. All of this on top of the Day Chart Divergence shown.
Nevertheless, anything can happen. For now, we are long on this commodity
Wait and see…
T28 FRI07FEB20 UK100 SHORT ID F79: S/O @0u
Note: 4h chart formed an Engulfing Candle, now this trade is confirmed.
T29 MON10FEB20 COCOA SHORT D1 DIV: SL@BE
As per my comments above, I exit & reverse my long coco trade and we are now short.
Divergence on Day Chart plus a beautiful Day Shooting Star to boot.
Although there is always other possible scenarios when doing technical analysis, I tend to apply the KISS principle and I also rather enter a trade than missing out on potential profits. I have the facility to do this because I do not seek to have 100s of trades a week, but rather a handful. Coupled with my 2% risk only, plus the fact that I only look at about 15 instruments over 3 groups (currencies, commodities, indices) from which I tend to enter only 2 trades per group (total of 6 trades or 12% risk), I can take some “riskier trades”.
Reason I commenting on this, is because Coco still has the potential to run north towards the 127% extensions of two major upswings (week and day charts). as shown by the pink box.
So for those of you that have many trades and want to be more picky, you can wait for this scenario to enter short, and stay on the long side, or wait for a Bear Engulfing Day Candle to confirm the current short trade.
Up to you…
T30 LONG EUR/JPY S/O -1u
I was just about to post this trade and i get the stopped out signal… 
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T31 THU13FEB20 AU200 INDEX SHORT ID/D1: 0u
Based on a Day Chart Divergence / Double Top and a 4H Shooting Star at this juncture, I have gone short. Once again, the best price was this morning at 10:30am but I am all over the place with my work times at the moment due to being between houses…
