Kiss principle trading

MON20JUL20: WHEAT SHORT 4H CHART: Closed @+0.9u :slight_smile:

Sell @ 529
S/L on entry @ 548
S/L Now @ B/E
TP @ 498
Closed @ 515 (+14points)

To be clear, I am bullish on Wheat, however, after a sharp up move and break of the last high (of the down trend), AND intraday divergences plus bear candle signals there, I feel this commodity is due for a retracement.

While I wait to enter LONG at the Fib 61.8 (hopefully), I am trading this short.

I will get out at any sign of weakness in the 4h or higher timeframe.

MON20JUL20: CORN LONG DAY CHART: Staying Out
I am a bit in a crossroads with this one. If I just focus on the Daily timeframe, I am clearly Bullish
However, I always prefer to have a Divergence plus a Break of a Trendline when I first enter a trade, this commodity has shown a oversold in the Weekly timeframe but not yet a divergence or a break of the inner down trend line yet… Now, this is far too larger timeframe anyway, but I have been looking at the longer timeframes to ride in such direction with my commodities trading.

In anycase, I am going with the Daily. Having said that, I am entering only 1/2 my size, and the other 1/2 at the fib 618 of the intraday chart’s recent upswing.

I am kind of 60% incline that it will resume a bullish trend and break the Weekly Downtrend line without a Divergence, so I am betting on that side with those odds…

SUPER KISS TRADING 30m Chart
The principle shown here is the one I use to enter most of my Weekly, Daily, 4h timeframe trades. The key is that for a long time I felt this simple principle didn’t work in any other shorter timeframe like 1h or 30m. But, after a few months of side-research and live demo testing, I found out it is possible. You just need the time to spend in front of the computer! I have done this over months because I do not have that time. So using some “back testing” combined with any opportunity to “live demo test” I believe this is feasible.

Hope you have some success using this very simple approach in the 30m short time frame. Good luck!

Tools

  1. Drawing the “Inner Trend Line”
  2. RSI Divergence
  3. Candlesticks
  4. Fibonnaci

MON20JUL20: AUD/USD SHORT 30m: S/O -0.5u

Woods. I forgot to end my message by saying “i’ll try”…

TUE21JUL20: EUR/USD SHORT 4H: S/O -1u :frowning:

Sell @ 1.1455
S/L @ 1.1470
TP @ open will move until an opposing 4h signal shows

TUE21JUL20: SOYBEAN CLOSED @ +1.5U :slight_smile:

GBP/JPY 4h Chart: GETTING READY
We have two possible options for this cross in the 4h chart.

Option 1: It will retrace to the 61.8% or 78.6% from here. At which point we will option buy (green rectangle / B arrow). The stop will need to be at the last low or at least below the 78.6%. However, we will need to have also a Bull Candle pattern to confirm our entry.

Option 2: It will form a new high whilst creating a RSI Divergence (red).

Either way, I am patiently waiting for this set up which should occur this week …i hope

Wait and see

THU23JUL20: GBP/JPY SHORT 4h Chart: Closed @ +93pips :slight_smile:
As per my analysis above, we kind of had a bit of both scenarios, albeit GJ missed the 61.8% by a far bit, stopping at around the 50% fib. Nevertheless the 2h & 4h charts has clear signals of:

(1) RSI Divergence
(2) Bear Candle signals such as Engulfing candles

SELL @ 136.37
S/L @ 136.87
TP OPEN

So I have entered short. As it is with trading, there is always a chance for what I call a “3-point divergence”… that’s, the cross making yet another high and the RSI failing once more.
So if we are in this situation, we got to make sure NOT to miss the next short opportunity…

Wait and see…

closed @ 135.40 +93pips

THU23JUL20: AUD/USD Short Day/2h Charts: S/O@B/E
This entry could be slightly premature… The best entry should be once the Day chart has formed a Evening Star (which is the only one left to form here), this is tomorrow. But that means that our short will be at a lower price…and I just like to gamble.
So, based on the Day Doji, the Day RSI Div forming with the 2h Chart Divergence and Bear Engulfing Candles, we are short now.

Sell @ 0.7135
S/L @ 0.7185
TP Open

Wait and see…

Coffee TP 105.45 hit +1.61u :slight_smile:
But there is a lot more room! I didnt get the chance to push my tp higher and wait for a Day RSI Div or O/Bought…

THU23JUL20: SOYBEAN SHORT DAY CHART: CLOSED @ 891 :slight_smile:

entry prices and reasons can be seen in print screen…

FRI24JUL20: GBP/USD SHORT 2H CHART: -45p :frowning:

ENTRY AND OTHER DETAILS SHOWN IN SCREENSHOT AS USUAL…
NOW WAIT AND SEE…

MON27JUL20: GBP/JPY 4h Chart Short: [email protected] +157pips :slight_smile:

Note: Alternative S/L location is just below the Day Hammer/Doji at 134.88 (65 pips risk)

Technicals:
Day Chart: The sterling entered the “Buy Zone” on the 23rd - 25th June (a month ago) when it broke its Down Trend Line and formed a Bull Engulfing Candle. That was our first Daily Buying opportunity (albeit a bit expensive in pips terms). The second buying opp presented on 30th June after a Bull Harami at about the 78.6% Fib levels.
This takes us to now, where the sterling has been in a new up-trend (temporal or otherwise we will need to wait and see) ever since 23rd June. Whilst we are trading the 4h chart to get a few more trades in (up or down) we need to favour the “Bull” side at least for now.

On the other hand, we have hit an “overbought” level in the Day RSI a few days back, which only tells me that we might soon be looking to favour the “Bear” side after a Day RSI Divergence (if and when it forms). Or a Break of this new Up Trend Line, if and when it happens.

For now, we have hit a 61.8% fib as shown and formed a few Hammers, Bull Engulfing & Doji at this level whilst have NOT closed below the last low (level of support). All of these, points to me towards a buy. We can however, have better entries (cheaper entries) possibly, in the next few hours, maybe even hitting the 78.6% with a nice hammer/doji. Who knows that far…

4h Chart: This is pretty clear shown in the pic.

TP: For now, I will be looking very closely at the Day RSI Divergence, which will require the GJ to make a new Day High (above 136.63) whilst failing to do so on its RSI.

Now, wait and see…

GJ S/L @134.88 (65 pips risk)

TUE28JUL20: AUD/USD Day Chart Short: S/O -67p :frowning:
Divergence and 4h bear candles formed at this juncture to enter short
SOLD @ 0.7131
S/L @ 0.7198 (67pips)
TP @ 0.6770 (360pips)*

  • TP is Open

FRI31JUL20: GBP/JPY SHORT 2h/4h Chart: Closed @ 137.42 (-34p) :frowning:

Anticipating the 4h Divergence in the forming, but using the 1h, 30m RSI divergences already formed, we went Exit and Reverse from our previous long.
We are however still in a Day Chart uptrend, so I am cautious on this trade using only 1/2 unit. Having said that, I will add 1/2 more at the completion of the current 4h candle IF there is a 4h Bear Confirmation by means of Bear Engulfing at this stage.

Nevertheless, we will keep a close eye on this short

Entry price, stop loss and tp in picture
wait and see

Entered a bit premature. We will wait for a proper 4h Chart Divergence in the next few hours to re-enter short if so required

GBP/JPY LESSON LEARNT
In the last three GJ trades I had 2 wins and 1 loss. The latter, came not only at that price but the fact that I missed out on another 200 pips! in just the very next day from my Long Trade.

As I had mentioned earlier, the GJ is in an Uptrend (Day Chart), and as such I must (at least for now) favour the long trades if in doubt or at least to “ride the trend” while is still intact.

The day chart had not shown signs of turning around yet, it only just (after my last short) shown an overbought as it was to be expected. But certainly there is no Trend Line Break or RSI Divergence that tells us this is turning around.

I made the mistake of using the 2h chart and mis-reading the RSI divergence which I had used for my 3rd last trade (short with +90 pips profit above), and use it again as a 1-2-3 point divergence which DIDN’T HAVE a 4h Bear Candle Signal at all to support such analysis.!

This costed me another 200 pips in profits, given that I “Exit & Reverse” on the next trade when the 4h or Day chart signals are there.

The signals I so much refer to are the same I used to show the 30m “super kiss trades” for GU.

  • Day or 4h Break of Trend Line, and/or
  • Day or 4h RSI Divergence
    AND
  • Candlestick Signal

Other entries come from Fib Level retracement, Gartley.

This is what I call “KISS” trading. As long as two of the above occur, then I am due to exit/reverse my trade. It is simple.

Based on my live trades and research on GJ, this approach when executed perfectly, has provided the following results:

+5,527 pips since 3/9/19 until a perfect execution of the last buy (which by the way, we should still be long and using 139.00 as an exit), with an average of only 2 trades per month and 9 days per trade.

I am happy with simply trading this way, it requires only to spend 5 min analysing the Day chart once a day and then checking the charts for another 5-15min every 4 hours! What can be much simpler than that! :slight_smile:

So, all in all, I didn’t execute my last long perfectly, only 50% (200 out of 400 pips), at least for now.
But I intend on improving on my performance from here on!

You will notice that I will be only posting trades for the GJ from here on as well.

I am also increasing my investment per trade to 10% of my trade capital, since it is almost the equivalent of trading 10 instruments at 2% and having 5 out of 10 active trades… 2% x 5 = 10%

I also will be using WD Gann’s pyramid approach:

10% on entry
5% on retracement
2.5% on next retracement

Let’s only hope that my execution rating increases from 50% to 90% and I should be happy! :blush:

Happy trading!

TT

TUE04AUG20: GBP/JPY SHORT 4h CHART Closed @+27pips :slight_smile:
We have a 78.6% bear engulfing candle at the 4h chart with a 2h candle that has closed at the south side of the recent inner up trend line.

On the Day chart we are in a possible “Positive Divergence” forming. Therefore, rather than waiting til tomorrow, I am using the intraday charts to give me the go ahead as described above.

Now, wait and see

FRI07AUG20: THE RIGHT ENTRY IN 4H CHART
Since I entered this trade, I have been sweating it. I jumped in based on what it appeared to be a “positive divergence forming” on the day chart. There was NOT a divergence in the 4h chart nor bear candles to warrant entering short when I did. LUCKILY, now we have the entry. It happened at 00:30 last night after a RSI Divergence formed and Bear Candle (Evening or Engulfing depending how you see it).

The entry should’ve been 20pips cheaper, but I take it! So now, I can let this one do its thing without staring at the charts all night!

Wait and see…

THU06AUG2020: GBP/USD SHORT 30m Closed @1.3067 +100p :slight_smile:
Once again, Divergence and now trying the small time frame and see how we go.

SOLD @ 1.3167
S/L @ 1.3187 (20pips)
*TP @ OPEN

post trade note: this trade has now become a 4h chart trade since we got a 4h bear candle and div confirmation. So our TP is now OPEN. All good news since it only costed us 20pips to begin with…for once I got the trade at a great price. now, it just needs to go our way.