WE ARE SHORTNG ALL MAJORS AGANST USD
AUD: Another day in paradise!
AUD/USD
After a perfect entry on the AUD & CAD (EUR & GBP ended up S/O at B/E) we are now targettIng the H2/H4 F127 on both.
EUR/USD
Meanwhile we will turn our attention to the EUR/USD which has formed pretty much the same set up on the Day Chart as the AUD did last Friday. But this time the Day Candle is much clearer: Harami. So we expect the EUR (and possibly the GBP as well) to move South following the AUD & CAD. BUT as usual, this is our analysis and we can be right or wrong. We’ll soon find out
THE PLAN:
(a) Enter SHORT at opening using the M30/M15 chart to set up our S/L
(b) IF market gapped down, we will set up a Limit Order at the Friday’s close AND seek to enter SHORT using the M5 chart. Whichever happens first.
MON 03/10/22: SHORT ENTRY: M30 TRADE M30 F127 TP1
RISK: 27 pips TP F127: 88 pips
GBP/USD:
Unlike the EUR/USD, this cross has not formed any candle signal (all we have currently is a Doji) that might be turning. This can mean that the next day candle will be a bear engulfing (eve star) or it will continue north (meaning we will be also wrong with the EUR/USD)… There are some H4&H2 bear signs plus not to mention that we are at a strong resistance level (like the EUR/USD)
So we will watch this one for an entry as well.
MON 03/10/22: SHORT ENTRY M30 TP1 127:
RISK: 45 pips TP1 F127: 185 pips
NOW WE WAIT…
TUE 4, OCT 22: AUD SHORT: Profits Taken. @17:30 we will get further confirmation that we are now moving to a Green Zone… (already taken some small profits on the way up since 16:30)
At 9:30 the H4 candle formed a Bear Harami at Resistance Level (time marked in dash green line)
Any entry on the M5 Swings from here.
We are targetting the H4 EMA21 support which coincides with the F38%
TUE 4 OCT 22: AUD LONG:
Now during the UK session it seems we are going to be looking for LONGS pretty soon. The H1 already has formed a Bull Eng plus the EUR we know is already moving north.
Regardless at 17:30 the H2 Candle would’ve formed a Bull Eng as well plus the H4 a bull doji or hammer.
This puts us on the Green Zone. We will enter long as per our strategy on the 1st M5 Swing at a 76% Fib preferably or at least a 62%, which we believe should happen since most hammers are usually tested.
We took a few pips long but a H1/H2 Fib 79 and Res turned us to red zone (short)
Kiss stands for “Keep it simple, stupid.” However, it is unclear. Please elaborate so that we can learn something new.
Hi HoodeBender, thank you for watching. As much as I try to make trading “KISS” it is hard still to explain simple concepts in writing. I will try in the near future to post a video. I have recently moved from Swing Trading to Day Trading simply because it suits my personality better, yet I am still trying to describe what is in my head.
So be a bit patient and as I move along (I am currently extremely busy with my house build), I will be posting step by step and/or videos of sample trades…
Here is a short version:
Step 1: Find a H4/H2 Candle Signal at a significant S/R. e.g. at a Fib 78.6%
Step 2: Instead of entering the trade immediately after such signal, we wait for the first Retracement Swing in the M5 chart. This will give us a “cheaper entry” by means of having our Stop at the High/Low of such M5 Swing instead of the H4 Candle Signal.
Step 3: Target either the M5 Fib Ext 162% or if one feel that the H4 Signal is strong enough (ie is in clear direction of the trend, bouncing of an EMA and/or TL as well) then one can target the H4 Swing Fib Extensions. The TP is up to each trader’s personality.
Below I am posting my next trade. Even though it is my method, the Day Trading is new, and I am still mastering it. Today I hesitated with the H2 & H4 Signals on both Gold and AUD (which usually move in same direction), and got lost with the M5 “noise” so I didn’t enter until the next swings…
Hope I can make your learning easier moving forward
Thanks for being a follower
TT
THU 6 OCT 2022: UK SESSION
This morning I missed out on a nice entry at 9:00am after having a H4/H2 Bull signal in the AUD and Gold. So I have been waiting all day for direction. Finally at 17:30 the H4 & H2 in both AUD and Gold provided such direction. A failed up swing at the 79% with a Bear Engulfing H2 and same H4 coincided.
BUT, I was hesitant, so I didn’t enter when shown by the arrow. I entered once we went below the M5 EMAs. But the risk is quite minimum since I used the M1 chart for these entries.
Anyway, as I mentioned above to our reader, I will try (this will be AFTER I settled in my new home sometime in november I hope!) to prepare some videos explaining step by step this simple method.
I believe is simple, because in reality I only use Candles & Fibonnacci, plus the H4/H2 EMAs to help me determine if we are trending or not. I have opted to not get mixed up trying to also trade the M5 (this is my second strategy) at least not yet. First I am mastering the “1st M5 Swing Strategy”… But Like I said, please be patient and I will try to post my 2 strategies in the near future.
AUD:
STEP 1: At 17:30 AUD completed a Bear Piercing Pattern at major Resistance Level
STEP 2: Right after 17:30 we start looking for a retracement in the M5 down swing. at a Fib level + M5 EMAs convergences. This happened at 17:55 (black down arrow)
We go short with target at the M5 F162% or further. The TPs are up to each trader!
GOLD: Pretty much the same for Gold, except that the first swing actually formed a “Double Top” in the M5 with a beautiful Shooting Star turned into Evening Star (18:30-18:35) Black down arrow.
THE IDEA OF MY "1ST M5 SWING’ STRATEGY is to “Enter after the H4/H2 signal formed BUT at a much CHEAPER cost in pips” this allow us to buy or sell more lots than otherwise we would have using the H4/H2 candle high/low for stop loss.
**FRI 07, OCT 2022: AUD LONG: 1st M5 Swing TPS 127 & 162 HIT
Post Trade Note: we were stopped out by 1-pip! This is because I entered this trade prematurely using the 61.8% rather than the 78.6% as per my rules! If the market price is not bouncing of the M5 EMAs then it must be a min 78.6% Fib that we use
So we re-entered on the 78.6 candle confirmation only 10’ later!
New trade is now at BE!
Strategy**
Entry: 0.6412
S/L: 0.64057 (6.3 pips)
TP1: 0.64293 (17.3 pips) F127%
TP2: 0.64365 (21.3 pips) F162%
Step 1: H4 Bull Harami formed at 9:30am
Step 2: M5 Bull Piercing Pattern formed at 9:35am at F61.8%
Re entry:
FRI 7 OCT 2022 16:15 SHORT #2 TP HIT
This is on top of our previous entry. Also now at B/E…
with the 1st trade at +4pips currently
Sorry but being a H1 > M5 trade it is hard to update posts and explain them quickly!
STEP 1: H1 BEAR HARAMI @ 15:30
STEP 2: M5 BEAR HARAMI @ 16:15
STRATEGY #2: M5 EMAs
Now that we had our few wins from my STRATEGY #1: 1ST M5 SWING, we have the opportunity to keep entering short using my STRATEGY # 2: M5 EMAs
As shown…
Note: However we have to be careful at this juncture. There is strong Support and I would prefer to wait and see.
I prefer to trade my Strategy #1 mainly, simply because it has a much higher win rate (at least so far) and this is because it works even in “choppy markets” like we had recently
It is "choppy"at the higher timeframes but we always have a “1st Swing in the M5” to trade and get out quickly at its correspondent Fib 162
I think this is it for me for this week
Have a great weekend!
BULLISH: LESSON
After a good day of shorts… Now at 18:30 AUD formed a H1 Bull Candle at a strong support (as mentioned above).
At 18:35 the M5 1st Swing Developed…unfortunately I was in the shower since I was done for the week…
MONDAY 10TH OCT 2022: AUD LONG
We have pretty clear signals:
At Support Level: H4 Harami, H2 Harami, H1 Morning Star
Of course the market will gap up so we will enter on the first M5 F79% retracement as per our “1st M5 Swing”
Let’s start the week with a winner
AFTER NOTE: This trade didn’t develop. We started at 9;30AM and the market had already moved down to form a further Divergence on the h2 & h4
However, we are still back on what I consider a Green Zone (Buy Zone) based on my Day Trading Strategy. See post below.
MON 10 OCT 2022: GREEN ZONE: H1 Trigger
As per my note above, the market has formed a H1 Bull Engulfing plus the H1/H2/H4 are in RSI Divergence. I am using the M15/M30/H1 timeframes Bull Engulfing plus the RSI Divergence as “Trigger” for this trade.
Next step is to enter on a Fib Retracement 79% (if no EMAS) or any other Fib if bouncing of an EMA
Good luck
TRADES: pROFIT HIT
TUE 11 OCT 2022: "GREEN ZONE"
AUD/USD H4 shows a significant RSI Divergence + Support at the F127% + Bull Candles in ALL Intraday Timeframes
We entering LONG using M5 until the zone changes…
AUD & CRUDE
Yesterday we were too early on the AUD. But today we are freerollng on both AUD & CRUDE
Same method. But the Crude was trggered by a DAY Chart
FRI 14 OCT 2022 11:30AM GOLD SHORT
The best entry was at 9:30AM with the H2 Harami
Gold Day Chart is in a Down Trend (below the EMAs)
Gold H2 is also in a down trend below the EMAs unlike the GBP above
So we are using the Intraday H2 chart to go short here (since we missed it a few days ago!) and we will set a target using the Day Chart. We have to be mindful of the Day Counter 79% support where it previously bounced from…