Kiss principle trading

5th April 2019 USD/JPY LONG TRADE

STOPPED OUT -1u

TRADING WEEK STATISTICS +15% (+5units)
Finally I was able to bring up some statistics from my software a bit easier. I can’t count pips but I can count what matters: Bank % Increase, Win %, average R:R

All statistics are on CLOSED TRADES of course:

Total Trades: 19

Win Trades: 9

Losing Trades: 10

B/E Trades: 0

%W: 47%

Average R:R 2.1

% Bank Increase: 15%

OPEN TRADES: 2
PAPER P/L: +4units

8th Apr 2019 GBP/JPY LONG TRADE
As shown, we are trading this cross today.
PS I am looking at moving my TP up and target the 4hr 127 extension whilst using the 30m as my stop loss for this position. Therefore the profits may be higher than shown here.

8th Apr 2019 USD/CAD LONG TRADE [FR]
I am now long on USD/CAD as shown. This is a Fib Retracement trade

08/04/19 STOP LOSS HIT (-0.5u)

8th Apr 2019 GBP/USD SHORT TRADE 4H CHART [FR61.8]
I have entered short on GBP/USD as shown.

09/04/19 STOP LOSS HIT (-0.9u)

8th Apr 2019 AUD/USD 30m CHART TRADE SET UP: BULL TTR
A possible trade coming up…if the market retraces that is…

The AUD/USD is taking out the last high in the 30m chart, all previous steps of a TTR [Gartley] has been completed, now we need it to make a High “A” and retrace to a Fib “D” or Right Tip. We are using the Left Tip [LT] to give me us a guide as to where it could retrace to give us an entry

09/04 Never happened. It just took off. :frowning:

8th Apr 2019 COFFEE LONG TRADE [TTR 618]
I have entered Long on Coffee on a TTR [a.k.a. Gartley] 61.8% with 4h Harami.

STOP LOSS HIT (-1u)

09/04/19 COFFEE LONG TRADE [TTR 786]
The 618 didnt work, so now entered the 786. If this one last trade doesn’t work, then I will give up trying to interprete the Gartley’s on this commodity :frowning:

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_COCO TRADE UPDATE: MY STAR TRADE : +112 pips locked in :slight_smile: _

My star trade has been Coco, and now it is time for me to lock in some profits. Although I believe it still has so much room to move since the week candles were 100% bulls! including with a Engulfing Bull Candle the week before last.

Yet still, time to lock in some 112 points

11/04/19 STOP LOSS HIT. I jumped the gun since there was no Day RSI Divergence.
One lesson for the knowledge bank…I was a bit excited with the huge win, I had to give some back :frowning:

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09/04/19 USD/JPY LONG TRADE

09/04/19 AUD/USD SHORT TRADE

09/04/19 STOP LOSS HIT (-0.8u)

09/04/19 NZD/USD LONG TRADE 61.8/Support/Day Har

12/4/19 S/L HIT

COMMENTS:
Not a good start for the week. After a +15% bank increase for last week, I am at -10% from the last week’s last bank balance (not including current open trades of course). One change I tested this week was to “trade the 30m-1h charts”. I know I only entered two or three but what this caused was for me to be back in “overload mode”. And this is the opposite to KISS TRADING…:frowning:

So, I have cleaned up my charts layouts. I have reduced my products to 4 currencies (AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY) and 4 commodities (Coco -my favourite, Coffee -the one I wanna beat!, Crude Oil -the one I will only trade Week Chart and waiting for Bear Gartley point “D”, and last but not least Gold.)

LESS IS MORE…MORE IS WORSE

I will continue to target 127% Fibs whilst using the intraday chart to trail my stops.
And where possible move the TP to 161.8% and trail the stop if the market is showing still signs of strength.

I needed to test things, and for me there is no point to do so in a Demo account, coz the “emotional” factor is just not there.

Let’s hope to recover and end up in profits this week!

Happy trading :slight_smile:

09/04/19 COCO: EXIT & REVERSE: SHORT TRADE
I have now cashed in my profits on Coco and reverse the trade going short
I have daily signals of RSI o/b, Hanging Man, Bear Engulfing, plus resistance levels
The problem is to know when to exit this trade so for now I placed my TP at the 61.8% retracement at which point i intend to go long once more since I am bullish on Coco

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10/04/19 USD/CAD SHORT TRADE

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**11/04/19 EUR/GBP LONG TRADE [FR61.8] **

The EUR/GBP has broken an intraday inner trend line after a 3-point RSI Divergence. However, at the same time it was unable to take out the last low of the up trend, attempting 3 times. At this time also showed a RSI Possitive Divergence.

In the past, I used to be unable to “decide” which side to join. Mainly because I used to give more weight to the fact that the market had broken a Trend Line meaning it would be in the “Sell Zone”. However, after months of reviewing trades, I realised that my confusion was caused by “drawing a baby trend line and giving it too much weight”. I had to draw these baby trend lines mainly to highlight a “possible gartley” coming up but NOT to confuse me when the market doesn’t take the swing low (in this case) specially after 3 attempts.

Of course, a portion of those trades will, in this case, go south. Still I need to keep an eye for a possible “Bear Crown/Gartley” despite the fact that it didnt take the “last low”…

Having said the above, and based on “Prevailing Swings Lows” I have to favour the Bull side for now. The TP is at the Fib 161.8 extension.

Now, let’s wait and see…

REVERSED SHORT ON BEAR GARTLEY: It appears that now the EUR/GBP has formed a Gartley. Despite of not quite had taken out the last low, it has now formed a 2h Evening Star at the 786% of the last downswing, also on the other side of the trend line. This would change my view. I have exit/reverse and I am now short
however, only 1/2 unit.

S/L Hit.…not a good move swaping views against my first analysis. Luckily I minimised my entry to only 1/2 unit

GOLD LONG TRADE UPDATE: +2units locked in [+13points]

Another good trade with gold, I now have trailed my stop to lock in 2 units (or +5%). Need to recoup some of my early week mistakes…

Part of mastering trading I guess…
on to the next!

12/04/19 UPDATE: GOLD HIT OUR TRAILED STOP. +2units
This was kind of expected, I missed out on noticing that there were bear signs at the 78.6% of the last swing. Gold has now formed a Bear Eng Candle on the Day chart, which points towards the G2222 gartley I mentioned weeks back when we first traded the “D” point of the Gold Bear Gartley. Refer to my latest post where I have placed a Limit Order to sell the 786 in the intraday chart, looking for a better price entry to short this commodity.

11/04/19 AUD/USD LONG TRADE [FR618]
I am “Bullish” on the aussie dollar in the “longer term” and as such, am trying to get back in the bull wagon which left while I was buying my ticket!

I have entered this trade, using the 2h chart and setting my TP at the “Day Chart Swing 127%”.

S/L Hit

12/03/19 AUD/USD LONG TRADE: 4H CHART - FR78.6%: +5units [+63 pips or 12.5%]

We are buying AUD/USD on a 4h Fibonacci Retracement trade with 4H Harami Candle formation.

We had a Day Bear Engulfing candle that is opposing our trade, that could counter act. If you are less of a risk taker, stay out of this one.

12/4/19 18:30 Update: S/L now at 1/2unit risk

13/4/19 9:30 Update: TP Hit @ +12.5% or +5units [+63 pips]
LOOKING TO BUY AGAIN ON RETRACEMENT
These are the trades we need when we had a streak of losses. A quick win.

I am now looking here for a retracement to buy once more. I am bullish on this cross so I will not be attempting to go against the trend for a “quick short”… This has costed me dearly this week with Coco and Coffee…

12/04/19 GOLD: LOOKING TO SHORT ON A RALLY TO 618/786

Gold has formed a nice Day Bear Engulfing Candle at the 786 of the last swing, however, this is not a good entry from a Risk:Reward ratio. The good news is that the Intraday Chart (4h), is showing signs of a rally. I have placed a Limit Sell Order at the 786 however, I will be looking to SHORT GOLD today if the market forms a 4-hr Bear Candle at the 61.8% or 78.6%.

13/04/19 GOLD: Still looking for an opportunity to enter on the Bear Side. I believe Gold is heading south to at least 1260 which is the Day G222 I mentioned in a few occasions before.

I always debate between leaving “money on the table” in order to stay on a trade longer whilst keep pyramiding on it as the market swings. But there is some times, too much money left behind on the table and the hope to re-enter in the very next swing is too tempting… Point in case, I have been trying to enter short for a while, luckily we pick up extra profits on the bull side for a quick ride recently…

12/04/19 COCO: We are still SHORT on this commodity. There are better signs supporting our trade.

13/04/19 S/L Hit

12/04/19 CRUDE OIL: WEEK BEAR GARTLEY COMING UP
The long awaited Bear Gartley on this commodity is near. Once again I face the dilema of the 618 v 786. But as mathematically proved, losing 1 unit is better than missing out in X units. Since when we “re-enter” the 78.6 we are doing so at a higher price which gives us further distance to our fix 127% TP.

This trade however, is at least one more week away. I am trading this commodity Weekly which means that we should look if the Short is due on 23/4/19 (after Easter)

Otherwise, it will continue for a few more weeks until it reaches the 78.6%

Note that the Week RSI is NOT at 70% and I doubt it will hit it this week. But, this is not a show stopper if we end up with a nice Evening Star for instance.

Happy Trading :slight_smile: