Post deleted. Stupid double post…
This having to double post is really annoying me…
Tomorrow EU will long. I have limits in place and will be exiting my sell trade when my buy limit hits.
I’m entering long at 1.358, 20 pip sl. Open target.
Will post todays trade result in the am. Happy trading
I had a great place for the limit order last night… But unfortunately the market reversed… took out my sell stop and then dropped 3 pips from my buy limit order. I watched the market almost hit my order and decided to place a new one at 1.36 with a stop at 1.358.
Yesterday lost 20 pips. This week, still up a total of 20 pips…
Current trade: +4.4 pips
I love what I am doing and working towards. My signal is excellent, however I am missing one key element I desire. Assuming I have direction all figured out, I’m working on an algorithm and going through some old ones to help me identify which pairs I believe are going to move the most the next day. In the past I had a few that seemed to work semi well that where based off of Price Area, might have to take a look back into that. Hopefully I get to stay long EU tonight and carry the trade, right now it’s looking very likely according to the data… Be back later tonight with an update.
Made a decision early tonight. the data looks great on EJ, I said Screw EU… I’m thinking EU is going to move very little tomorrow. EJ on the other hand, looks nice.
Took 4 pips in EU today. pretty sad but hey, I’m done with EU for a while. EU is a super slow moving currency now. Therefore I dislike EU.
I went ahead and entered because EJ is at a nice level of support and I expect it to bounce here or around the 138.45 level.
Trade: EJ Long at 138.669 SL: 138.38 (A little further than my normal 20 pip stop…)
Anyhow, I’m hoping I can catch a nice trend in EJ on the daily. We’ll see what happens tomorrow though. Happy trading.
Currently up 8.2 pips in EJ. It seems no matter what I do right now, I seem to pick the slow pairs… Very annoying.
EJ does look good though, It appears my long signal is golden. Be back later with an update.
I know you like to use math for entries into the markets and this may be a silly question, but, have you considered trying to couple in your strategy with key pieces of event risk which induce market volatility?
Have you ever considered using an ATR or currency strength meter to find pairs which are “moving”?
Jake
Thanks for stopping by Jake! I appreciate idea’s. Those are definitely some smart questions you have. To be honest I am somewhat stuck and I am quite happy you noticed and are willing to help out. I’m not sure what more I can extract from excel document. I have what everyone wants, at least for starters… direction. I’m missing two key elements to build my most revolutionary system. Entry and picking the “expected” furthest movers from open. I have heard of ATR, Average True Range correct? If I have used it, it’s been a while. Point me in the nearest direction for some insight on where to begin? As far as key pieces of event risk, do go into some detail. I’m guessing you are referring to high impact news etc?
To give you a brief idea of where I am headed. I’m looking for something to help with entries. I want to be able to keep a 20 pip stop on a trade I can hold all day, or all week if it works out the way I desire without getting stopped out unless I am truly wrong. As you know, I get daily signals from my excel spreadsheet… So I basically want to pick a good pair to trade for the week (one that is going to move the most ATR?)… pull the direction signal, then proceed to get in at the best price possible (ATR?)and hold it until I get a signal that the next day will reverse then repeat.
So I have direction… Now onto those other two important pieces. Do share some insight when you get the chance. Thanks
Okay currently Im up 2 pips in EJ. pretty sh–y if you ask me considering I was up a good 20 pips earlier. However, this is a longer term trend trade I am fortunate enough to get to carry at least through tomorrow. Just pulled the data, got an absolutely beautiful EJ Long signal for tomorrow. This is one pattern I see very rarely and in the past it meant excellent movement. It’s rare I can project high movement, but tomorrow is easy for me. As far as stop loss goes, I’m keeping the same stop as yesterday. My exact stop is actually 138.38. Once again, target is open. Anyhow, no one knows what these mean but myself so the numbers I will be posting in the future at the bottom of my posts are for my own eyes in the future.
19.27, 6.29
Got stopped out of course. Figures. I reviewed a few pairs today and I just can’t accept that I am wrong. I am that confident in my signal I still expect EJ, EU and AJ to long today. That being said, I reentered EJ at 138.118 with a stop at 137.918. Currently the market is climbing and I am up 8 pips. If All goes well, I will take a good 60 pips from this trade if not more. Be back later with an update.
Trade update: EJ +30 pips. Nice. Should keep climbing above 138.71
Love interacting with dedicated folks like you, no need for any thanks!
You’re not alone here…getting the best entry and setting accurate targets is challenging for every trader. Here’s something which helped me a ton: We know the market moves in waves or legs right? Instead of trying to hold yourself to capturing 100% of the move, which is nearly impossible, be okay with nailing 65-75% of a move. You’ll give your psyche a break, and really start to pull small chunks out of the market, which add up over time. No one captures 100% of a move, 100% of the time.
ATR is a great tool for gauging market volatility. Check this article out. Basically, it’s a great tool to aide in determining where you should set profit targets and stops. If a pair’s ATR is 50 pips and you’re trading with a 10 pip stop- chances are you’re going to get whipped out of a position.
As for event risk- I was just trying to say that coupling a pair which has a relatively high ATR with a key piece of event risk (yes- high impact news release) could be a great way to trade a pair which is destined to move far and fast- quickly.
What’s the reason for a fixed-pip stop loss?
In my experience, this is very dangerous unless you have an air-tight method which has been back/forward tested like crazy and is incredibly accurate on entry points.
If you’re using D1 data, and placing a 20 pip stop on a pair which has an ATR of say 50 pips, you can potentially be setting yourself up for failure out of the gate.
Having a 20 pip stop, and planning on holding a trade all week sounds a bit aggressive. Why are you against having a wider stop, but just position-sizing accordingly?
I like where you are going with all of this. Sounds great. Will check out the article after I post this.
- Capturing the whole move
I see what you mean and I agree. However, what I am trying to capture is open to close on the daily. I’m not interested in capturing smaller moves, or whatnot. Reason for this is because of my job and what I do after work etc, I’m rather busy and like to monitor my trades on my phone but I do not like to necessarily get in and out multiple times a day nor am I able to check my phone whenever I want. I could possibly make more money watching the charts and getting in and out at good levels and possibly by setting take profits etc, but I’m trying to trade 1 trade per day with a well placed entry (non time dependent) and a set exit (time dependent) which is close on the daily. I may hold 1 trade for a day, two days or if I am extremely lucky a whole week… that all depends on the signals I get. As much time and work that I have put into building this system, I’m more interested in holding the trades for as long as possible until I get a reversal signal for the next day. In essence I’m trying to squeeze every drop out of the market minus the highs and lows that occur so that I am able to maximize return off this system without any additional risk. Yes it’s a little greedy, but as rare as it has been lately… If i pick the right pair and the pair goes up 150 pips from open and I have a measly 40 pip take profit and it gets hit, I would be upset. After all, I predict the entire day open to close regardless of how much movement occurs, not moves within the day, mini moves are pointless to me. Most of the time it would appear if I had a 40 pip TP it might get hit often but not always. However, If i take that 150 pips in a single trade in only a day… that would put me ahead of schedule (my real goal is just a measly 20 pips a day). The buffer I would receive from the big wins when I get them would allow me to lose more often if I do not place well enough entries and still grow my account quite nicely. If I predict a day, why not take the whole day? Otherwise I might as well make a new system xD.
- ATR
Definitely going to look more into it and read that article. This could be excellent. As far as event risk goes, this is a good and a bad thing. I want a very tight 20 pip stop which means my entry needs to be right on point. Lately I have been doing well on my entries, not great but pretty well. Most of the time I do not get stopped out and am able to hold the trade all day which is my goal. Back to event risk… High impact news is great for volatility but like previously stated, without a very very good entry, I take huge risk of getting stopped out. So it might be better to stay away from pairs with high event risk except when I am already in the trade from a previous day or two and I am green enough the spike won’t take out my original stop. So that is something for me to ponder about. With that in mind I will be certain I try to look at the news before it happens to see if I have a greater chance of getting stopped out.
- Fixed Stop
Somewhat already addressed above but I will go into more detail. If my entry is at a good support or resistance level… Either 10 pips or so above or below (depending on my entry direction) and I have the correct direction, I shouldn’t have an issue at all about getting stopped out even with the 20 pip stop (as long as event risk is low as well). Another reason for the tight stop is because I put half of my account into the trade, but with the 20 pip stop I can only lose 5% of my account if my stop gets hit… Maximum profitability with the ability to lose several times in a row and still be able to put in the same amount of units per trade. When I have my 2k, I want to make at least $50 a day (thats only taking 20 pips). However, with 1k in the trade and I hit one of those big moves which will inevitably happen… I will take $500 off of just a 100 pip move (25% of the 2k in one trade only risking $50 worse case scenario having 1k in the market). Once again though, it’s very important I get in at a very good price. Support and resistance levels are key for this. Throw some ATR in the mix when I learn it thoroughly, and I should be golden!
Hope you understand why I want open to close movement and my tight stops. It’s going to take some time, but I have a month or two before I have the money in place so I should be fine.
So I came to conclusion I was wrong about EJ today. No big deal, its actually pretty thrilling. Just like most others, any losing trade I analyze what could have caused the loss etc. My two golden eq’s are not always perfect. However, I did revisit some of my other calculations within the same sheet and I am thrilled about finding an excellent match to help out with my two golden algos. NCM, short for Non Canceled Money. Something I invested a lot of time in a few months back. Paired with some sound logic and my two favorite calcs, I think i have myself a baller signal. That being said, I been pulling data pretty early lately and already have my trade set up for tomorrow. I’m sticking with EJ. My EJ projection is short for tomorrow and a nice short I expect.
EJ Short
Entered at 138.32 with a stop at 138.6. I wanted to wait until it hit 138.4 again but I’m not going to give the market a chance to screw me like it did the other day. It’s at a good level now so I am not worried. Be back tomorrow with an update. Hopefully I can take upwards of 40 pips tomorrow.
This sh-ty market is really pissing me off. I’m sick of the whip saws and low liquidity in the pairs I have been trading. Was up 30 pips in EJ only to hit break even again. I closed EJ, screw EJ. Anyhow I pulled a few more pairs and I am back to EN and GN for the time being. I like to see pips, and lots of them. No more of these p-ssy a-s currency pairs. Yens basically suck now period. Maybe once in a blue moon they move a wopping 50 pips. wow.
Anyways. I am in GN today. Got an excellent buy signal so I entered. GN is going to be tricky though. I have no choice but to use wider stops because she moves so much. I expect a big move sunday.
GN Entry: 1.94148
Stop Loss: 1.9335
Target: 1.96
My target is a about 200 pips putting me at a 3:1 risk to reward ratio. Can’t wait til Sunday to see what happens, but I am very confident in a long. Anyhow, Happy trading and have a great weekend.
I noticed some really heavy institutional buy volume right before close. I’m glad I longed GN, it’s certainly going to be a fantastic trade! Spread is absolutely ridiculous though… I’m down 68 pips which to most would be insane. I also moved my stop down to 1.93 in case there is some sort of spike at open. When I have my grands in two months or so I’m just going to have to lower risk and put a 100 pip stop on GN… and not trade high impact news days just to be safe. However, I’m quite happy about this trade and look forward to a great weekend and hopefully a nice gap come Sunday.
Happy trading all and have a great weekend.
Hi Leg0nd, yes it’s been a while 
I’ve read some of your recent posts and would like to offer a point of view; which of you are welcome to take onboard as little or as much of as you like.
Imagine a guy walks into a car dealership wanting to buy the fastest road legal production car available; so the salesman takes him over to a Bugatti and a Koenigsegg and says “Take your pick”.
Now you tell him,“It also has to be good off road”.
He now takes you over to a supercharged RangeRover or something similar. You give him Gazzousands of $$$ and off you go.
At the first set of traffic lights you come to there is a “loser” in a Ferrari 599. The lights turn green and he leaves you behind in a cloud of dust and thoughts of what would have happened if you had bought the bugatti instead…[I]maybe you can get your money back[/I] lol
If you want a 20pip SL everyday regardless then you want predictability so a ranging market would suit. Easy to pick your entry and exit… but you then sacrifice volatility which of course is where the big moves are.
As you already know, a volatile market or pair will take out your 20pip stop often but when you win your winner will be bigger. Nothing new there 
BUT you are now into the realms of lower win rate with a higher potential potential return. Is a fixed 20pip stop and a fixed daily close the best way to achieve this and more importantly…can you trade that way?
I could be completely wrong, but from what i have read you seem to need to have a high win rate to be “emotionally” calm as it were. How many losses before you want to totally change or overhaul your system or engage in fire fighting?
Essentially the situation and conditions you have are…1) You can’t put in a lot of screen time at the moment 2) The market is not making big moves right now 3) You need a high win rate emotionally
Starting with a clean sheet,what would you suggest as good parameters, styles and strategies to meet those conditions?
Welcome back WinPsych! It’s been a while fore certain. I’m glad we have some of the A team back on baby pips. Your analogies are always on point and great to read, I love them.
I will address some of the concerns you have. First the 20 pip stop I have been getting some fire from lol. After Trading this week with the 20 pip stop I have come to conclusion I need a variable stop dependent on which pair I choose to trade. GN for example, Had I not put my stop 80 pips down, due to the spread at close and the volatility that precedes close, I would have gotten stopped out even though price borderline closed right at if not a little above where it opened during those highly volatile minutes. News spikes also have me concerned somewhat. The only reason I wanted such a tight stop originally was to give my risk and acceptable value. Now I am just going to have to change my predetermined position size to accommodate that. AJ, EU, NJ, UJ, AU and pairs like those… I can run a 20 pip stop all day with a fairly well placed entry and I have no fear I will be fine as long as I have direction correct. GN, EN, EJ, GU, GJ and pairs like those I will not be able to run a 20 pip stop. So, you guys are right about those stops.
As far as using close for exit, due to the amount of profitable pips I have been losing due to this tactic, I have been seriously considering placing my target at psychological levels/Support and resistance levels that are an acceptable distance away from my entry. Take this GN trade I am in… I have a target at 1.96. The pair may not go up quite that far in a day, but if it spikes and nails it, I would be happy with that. If GN does not spike and hit it within a day or two, I am going to work on just getting out when I can at another acceptable level.
High win rates. My mission in general is to have as high a win rate as possible of course lol. I’m sure many others feel the same way. But to be honest, the thing that upsets me the most and causes me to loose my cool is not whether I win or lose. If I win awesome, If i lose great… Losing grants me the opportunity to study, determine, and correct a flaw if one exists in my logic which caused me to enter in the first place. However, what really upsets me is volatility. Low volatility irks the sh=t outa me. I hate thinking I found a nice setup only to reveal it closes 3 pips from open and I held onto the position for 24 hours. Low volatility = highly upsetting.
A clean sheet and a possible new system. As you probably know I’m a mathematician at heart. I couldn’t fathom it during grade school nor did I ever expect I would turn into one, but here I am today. Market math as I call it, purely excites me and drives me. Considering the resources I have at hand, Microsoft excel is my best choice to create such a system that I would be interested in trading. With that being said, over the past year I have been using excel in such the manor I have been, I have at least a hundred or so of previous systems, plus the one I currently trade all inside the excel document I already use. When a system or calculation I used failed, rather than open a new document and start over, I kept the calculations in the sheet and built onto what was already within the sheet. Like a mason, every brick (calculation) lays on top of one another to eventually build a wall, walls then form a building etc. However, I have the ability to look at each brick, and pair it with any other brick or sets of bricks to form new combinations in attempt to find the right combination to create a balanced and highly accurate system. That’s where I am today. I have created so many different kinds of calculations I have almost run out of valid useful ideas to calculate. Therefore I can finally look back and start matching the pieces of the puzzle to form the best picture possible. Assuming this GN trade works out, I really feel like I found the missing pieces I was missing back in late march early april. NCM, and CM paired with SUMB and SUMS has created an airtight signal I believe. Only one way to find out, this GN trade as well as future forward testing.
I am curious, have I sent you my sheet yet for review? Thanks again for stopping by man, It’s been a journey.
I found it! Looks interesting, I’ll try to read through some tomorrow.
Mr Leg0nd!
Yeah we all want higher win rates on our chosen strategy/ style but what i was alluding to was the old win rates versus $$$ banked and how the correlation is non linear, risk reward blah blah blah…especially employing a “trawler” strategy with adjusted/ adjustable parameters. However if i was wrong on the win rate emotional thing…then it’s a non issue anyway.
It would be interesting to know though if you have any forward testing stats on your system with unadjusted parameters over a decent sample size?
I know from the thread you have gone down myriad of avenues in search of an “edge booster” as it were lol It’s all experience man, and it all comes in handy at some point even if it isn’t always in the way we think it is… well thats my experience anyway
When i said looking at things with a clean sheet i didn’t exactly mean with a new system what i meant was “[B]noislessly[/B]”… is that even a word?
Your screen time situation has changed and so has the market… in essence you don’t want to be that guy running around with an umbrella looking for rain.
Have seen some great concepts in this thread, and it’s a very different approach to what is essentially day trading. Love the idea behind the concept and the issues it covers sort of thing.
From what i have seen your strength is direction. The way the market was before your strength in getting direction right allowed for the “trawler” entry and exit where accuracy is “less” important. In this market i can understand that on exit you are now getting hit by what i call “drift back” and hence your idea of trying out psych levels as an alternative. With regards to entry… less volatility requires greater accuracy to pick up those pips ([I]direction won’t cover it[/I]), being screen time limited in your current situation doesn’t help does it?! 
Tbh i have made all my pips noiselessly trading the news and sentiment swings the last 6-8 weeks, pretty screen time dependent with regards to pulling the trigger.
You were going to send me a video pre sending the sheet if remember correctly. I have overhauled my time management “system”, send what you have and i will put it through the system and send you some feedback when it comes out the other side lol
XD. Take your time. I’m glad you are interested. Let me know what ya think
Alright… Wins turn xD.
About those forward tested unadjusted parameters… The actual sheet and all the calculations are the same as they where back in march. I haven’t adjusted any of them lol but I have added one concept. It has to do with additional buy and sell volume I was able to calculate. Since I have so many resulting calculations at bottom of the spreadsheet… you will see when I send it, all I have been doing is trying to find one that is compliant with my main signal provider and hopefully eliminate all inconsistancies (higher wick - lower wick)/(open to close) or better known to me as SUMS and SUMB.
The sheet itself I have been forward testing since March, so I nearly have 4 months of forward tested data over a myriad of pairs. GN, EN, AJ, EJ, EU, GU, NJ, and UJ. The beauty of this concept and system is that it is not pair dependant. Theoretically I could test indexes, futures, stocks, oil, gold, chickens you name it if I could get D1 data for what I am testing. I can’t wait to test stocks at some point… however… where to get D1 data for real? Imagine if I knew exactly which penny stocks where about to jump. You called me the direction guy lol.
Okay about the market changing and screen time. The market has changed you say. Mathematically you are correct, if every day was it’s own formula (I believe it is believe it or not) the resulting formula would always be different from any other day and rightfully it is. However, how I measure each “variable” in the resulting formula that represents the market that day is what I get my signal from, not the whole formula itself. So in a sense I have a timeless system. Theoretically the way I choose direction will never need to be adjusted or changed tomorroe, next week, or 10 years from now. It’s truly phenomenal. I’m measuring any and every aspect of each individual minute in the market which allows me to predict the future with such accuracy. Proof of this is that I took a month break and came back a week ago trading the same exact way (except I added stops) with borderline the same accuracy if not better. I need change, change is my friend. Without the market changing I wouldn’t have a valid system. It always spits out two new and never before seen integer values in my SUMS and SUMB equations I primarily use for direction. If I got the same integer values, It wouldn’t be possible to have a flawless system.
As I reread your post a couple times I will continue to update this post