Held both trades through the weekend. But I intend on closing out of my AU position at open if possible. I’m expect AU to short on Sunday and EU to continue long. Back back tomorrow. Have a great weekend.
Ended up holding both positions. AU long and EU Long. After some review I can see why I was inclined to short AU Sunday.
Anyhow, I am holding both long positions until I get the new signals tonight.
AU Long at .9292
EU Long at 1.34
Up about +60 pips right now. Trades are looking good.
Holding both positions. AU Long and EU Long
Unfortunately I was completely wrong on the signal last night. Added it to my archive to help me in the future, damn do I feel stupid. Signal was already crazy looking, my fault for even taking it. Anyhow…
EU stopped out, loss of 40 pips
AU still in, holding until tonight’s signal +10 pips
Yo brother- have you thought about decreasing your position size on small trades like that (-40P on EU), and increasing your stop to allow for more room to “breathe”?
Jake
Hows it going Jake? As far as decreasing my position size goes, I have considered it but haven’t done it. As far as increasing the stop goes, I would really like to get back into a 20 pip stop but I don’t think that’s plausible at this moment in time. As bad as It was to take a 40 pip loss, I’m glad I got stopped out for that trade. I was dead wrong on the signal. If I had given the market more room to breathe a still would have been wrong and lost even more pips. However, I do need to do some more research on where to place my stops I think. Usually I use previous highs and lows to help determine the stops on the hour chart, any suggestions though? As far as decreasing position size goes, how would you recommend doing that? Every 20 pips or 10 pips close out of x percent of the position? Thanks
Oh a little insight. My risk model is quite different I’m assuming than most. For the past two or three weeks I have been trading the exact same amount of units with great success. Until I hit a certain predetermined account balance I will continue to keep the same trade size, once I hit the desired account balance I will proportionally increase my trade size. I find that If i lose a trade or string of trades and continue to use the same amount of units I can recover from any losses much faster (usually within one or two trades) and my ability to make consistent profit has increased exponentially compared to the past few months of trading. Now I lose less, make more profit and can afford to lose a several trades and still end up profitable. So far so good.
Ok So I lost 40 pips on that EU trade and closed the AU trade for +8.5 pips profit bringing my net down to -31.5 pips for the week no big deal. I checked three pairs last night, EU, AU, and NU. Got short signals for all of them which appears to have been right on point. Problem was I put my limit orders way to far away from open. Was possibly expecting a fair amount of draw down last night so I put the limits too far out. I still have yet to really figure out volatility using data, but I might have to check out that indicator again that Jake suggested a week or two back.
So, I was right on direction today, but unfortunately didn’t get to enter. Oh well. None of the three pairs moved a significant amount anyhow. Will see what tonight brings, I might even through in some yen pairs as well tonight. Be back later, Happy trading.
Got my trades all set for tomorrow. I decided to just stick with EU and AU.
AU Short: .924 (not a great price but I should be fine) SL: .928
EU Short: 1.33562 SL: 1.33962
Be back in the AM with an update
Normally I don’t do this but I added a third position. Couldn’t resist a nice hedge.
NU Long: .8445 SL: .84
Code red???
xD I’m a little confused by code red lol.
Got stopped out on AU and EU losing a total of 80 pips today. The losses could have been avoided had I decided to put in some more time and work with studying my spreadsheet. I feel pretty stupid, a buy was somewhat in plain sight in AU and EU. I overlooked a particular set of stats that would have saved me from placing the sells and instead placed longs. Those particular statistics are more valuable than I thought and will now be added to my signal decision process. Not a problem. I still have a few months before I will finally have the two grand I would really like to be trading with. Pretty soon I will be trading a couple hundred. I can’t wait. Fortunately I’m still trading macro and have plenty of time to actually study and nail out all the ranges and rules to determine the signal.
As far as NU goes, it was a well placed trade. The signal was easy to interpret and everything lined up great, So I am glad I took the trade.
So far I lost a total of 112 pips or so this week. This has been my worst week in 3 weeks. No big deal though, I’m still on track.
NU: +30 pips so far. Hopefully I can hold through the weekend. Will find out if I can or not in a few hours and I will be sure to post. I may add to the position later as well. Will see.
With my NU profit if I where to close the position, It would bring me back down to only 80 pips or so lost this week. Even so, that’s not bad at all considering how long I usually hold my trades and how many pips I take from them. Be back later. Hope everyone else had a good week for me.
Here’s what I was getting @
Say you wanted to go long.
Instead of buying 10K w/ a 20 pip stop, buy 5K w/ a 40 pip stop?
I’m of the camp that fixed stops simply don’t work in the FX market- they need to be placed well past logical support/resistance zones (since this market is notorious for fake outs).
Yeah I get what your saying. That’s what I started doing. Here’s how i determine risk.
When I have 2k It will go like this assuming I choose my high risk tactic if I am ready by then… If not these numbers will be reduced by half (when I start trading with a few hundred it will be proportional to this type of risk management)
2k account balance.
2 trades per day or however long I can hold them
Each trade will have $500 invested in them, so that’s a total of $1000 invested of my $2000.
Each trade will have a 40 pip stop
So If both trades lose, I will lose a total of $200.
If both trades win I should take roughly $500 just by hitting 100 pips. (past few weeks my trades have been averaging around 100 pips and should continue to stay that way if not improve)
Now lets say I win my first trade and take $500 or whatever. This is where it gets interesting. I would still only place $500 in each trade until my account balance hits $3000. When I hit $3000, then I would increase trade size to $750 per trade etc.
Now assume I lose my first trades and possibly a few more on top of that (worse case scenario). Until I my account balance gets pretty close to $1000 would I then cut my risk, If I went down to only $1500 or like $1200 or so, I would still continue to put $500 in each trade. This way If i lose a few trades I can still make all the losses back faster than I lost it. And, I would be taking full advantage of a nice winning streak as well rather than cutting my risk because my account balance and not taking full advantage of the streak.
I still have to work on entries. That will greatly reduce my chances of getting stopped out. Days like 6/05/2014 EUR/USD are days that I am most worried about. Depending on where I got in and even though I got the right direction and longed EU, I could easily have gotten stopped out due to the crazy amount of draw down EU had that day. I do not want to get the signal right and still get stopped out, that is highly upsetting. I’m still working on how to predict future movement and draw down but that’s coming along nicely (I have a few nice ideas I’m toying with).
Now onto logical support and resistance levels. I agree on the numerous fake outs etc. That’s why I try to make sure my stops are at least 15 pips (the goal is 20 pips or possibly more) away from the highest high or lowest low.
Pulled the data a little early because I won’t be back in time to pull it before market closes. From what it looks like, NU will actually short on Sunday. It’s possible, but unlikely, that my signal will change in 2 hours and 15 mins or so. I’m going to hold the long through the weekend and then close out at open on Sunday and hopefully short if I get a good price. I may just close the position now, I haven’t decided yet. Will post what I do in a few hours when I get back.
Well I wasn’t able to get out of NU which is fine. However, I can’t pull the rest of the data until Sunday which totally sucks. I will probably be back to post lots of statistics in my journal tonight to help me create an online cheat sheet as a backup in case something happens to my computer. I’m going to post why I would long or short as well. For some reason I can still get tripped out and am trying to simplify the process in my head. It is simple, but everything has to go in a particular order. Anyways, be back later. Hope everyone else had a great trading week.
Sweet the picture uploaded and I can read it. These are crazy looking days, these patterns are more and more prevalent I have been noticing. I’m also going to upload some what I call normal looking days if not tonight definitely tomorrow. I got a lot more crazy looking days to add as well.
If a dude is hella consistent, eats 2 losing trades in a day in which usually only 2 trades are on the menu and then goes in for a 3rd…and i quote “[B]Normally I don’t do this but I added a third position[/B]”
I have to ask said dude if the state of alert has escalated to code red? 
Your following posts have calmed these fears.
Was able to get the last of the NU data and It appears NU will buy today. I’m holding my trade.
This is what the numbers look like:
Found a nice short position in EN. Shorted EN at 1.5836 with a stop at 1.588
NU still holding up well. Up +20 pips or so
Up almost 30 pips in NU, and EN is looking great. I’m up roughly 20 pips in EN. so far all is good! Great start to the week. will be back at midnight with the new trades and signals.
Took 22 pips or so in NU and 10 pips in EN. Closed out both positions for an EJ short. EJ looks like the best trade to take tonight, so I am just going to take it.
EJ Short: Entered at 136.879 SL: 137.279
Be back in the AM with an update.