1. Current trend of the currency pair AUD/USD
At the beginning of this week the currency pair AUD/USD has traded not far from the strong support level of 0.9600. On Tuesday “bears” tried to break down this key level, however they failed, as the pair did not have strong drivers to trigger decline. Pushing off from the level of 0.9600 the pair started to correct and at the moment traded near resistance level of 0.9670.
2. Important levels (support and resistance)
At the moment situation in the market is ambiguous. On the one hand the pair lacks sufficient drivers to decline and break down the level of 0.9600; on the other hand economic situation in Australia impedes the rise in the pair. It is likely that downward trend will continue and after breakdown of the level of 0.9600 the pair may drop to 0.9530. At the same time we cannot rule out a chance of long-term upward correction to the levels of 0.9750, 0.9830, 0.9900 and 1.0000. In the current situation it is recommended to hold short positions opened earlier. Short-term long positions can be opened from the level of 0.9700.
3. Technical indicators
On the daily chart “Bollinger bands” indicator is directed downward; the price chart is in the bottom band. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the oversold zone, volumes continue to increase. Stochastic lines are directed downward and may soon enter the oversold zone (20), forming a sell signal.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/CAD. Investors are waiting for the data on Canadian GDP
1. Current trend of the currency pair USD/CAD
The currency pair USD/CAD started this week with the growth in quotes. In the middle of the week the pair gained about 140 points. On Wednesday the price has reached new highs since June last year at the level of 1.0420. The US data on consumer confidence index for May was the main driver for the growth in the pair. Index was above experts’ expectations, amounting to 76.2 points, which is the highest level since January 2008 and a strong indication of economic recovery in American. However, the pair failed to break down resistance level of 1.0420 and shifted to downward correction. The rise in the Canadian dollar was driven be the fact that the Bank of Canada left key interest rate unchanged at the level of 1.99%. However representatives of the Bank did not rule out a chance that interest rate may be lowered in the near future.
2. Important levels (support and resistance)
At the moment the pair traded near support level of 1.0350. It is likely that the price will go up to the levels of 1.0405, 1.0480 and 1.0560 in the near future. Note that GDP of Canada will become known on Friday. Experts expect that domestic gross product may fall to 0.1%, which will trigger the rise in the pair. However, temporary downward correction to the level of 1.0285 may take place during the day as well, which will be followed by ascending movement. In the current situation it is advisable to open long positions from the level of 1.0375 with profit taking at the level of 1.0480.
3. Technical indicators
On the daily chart “Bollinger bands” indicator does not demonstrate significant divergence of the lines, both of them are directed upward; the price chart is in the upper band. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone and in the near future intersection with the signal line is not expected. Stochastic lines are in the oversold zone (80), buy signal is not expected.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
1. Current trend
The currency pair USD/JPY still traded in the sideways channel. This week “bears” made repeated attempts to go down below the level of 100.55, as this would have opened them the way to the lower levels below the 100 figure. However, this level was strong and they could not break it down without additional support. At the end of this week USD/JPY traded in the channel of 100.70-100.60. The main target of the “bulls” is to go back to the previous highs and consolidate above the level of 102.5.
Technical indicators do not give clear signals. Stochastic is below the moving average line and both of the lines are ready to cross, giving a buy signal. MACD shows growth: the signal line is directed upward, histogram is tending to the positive zone.
2. Trading tips
It is likely that the pair will move in the narrow channel. It does not seem feasible that bears will go further down; therefore it makes sense to open long positions with profit taking near 102.00-102.50.
The currency pair AUD/USD started the week with the rise in quotes. On Monday the price reached two-week highs at the level of 0.9790. Growth in the pair was triggered by weak American economic data. Business activity index in manufacturing industry of the USA was below the forecast in May, amounting to 49.0 points. Note that the index fell below important threshold of 50 points for the first time in six months. Some deterioration American economic performance gave investors ground to believe that quantitative easing program will not be terminated in the near future; therefore the American dollar will not strengthen sharply either.
2. Important levels (support and resistance)
At the moment the pair AUD/USD is experiencing downward correction and traded near the level of 0.9710. It is likely that downward correction will continue in the near future; the price may fall to the level of 0.9670-0.9650 and after that the price may reverse and resume ascending movement to the target levels of 0.9790 and 0.9890. Note that on Wednesday the data on Australian GDP for Q1 will be released. Experts believe that GDP will increase up to 0.8%, which may trigger ascending movement. In the current situation it is advisable to open short-term short positions with profit taking near the level of 0.9650. It is also recommended to place pending order "buy limit” near the level of 0.9670
3. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart “Bollinger bands” indicator demonstrates some divergence in the lines. The price chart has recently broken down the upper line and is now tending to the moving average, giving a chance of downward movement in the price to the levels of 0.9670-0.9650. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the overbought zone, volumes continue to increase. The lines of Stochastic are crossing the overbought line (80) from top to bottom, forming a sell signal.
On the four-hour chart the line Tenkan-Sen is below Kijun-Sen, both of them are horizontal. The line Chinkou Span is under the price chart; current cloud is descending. Following the fall of last week, the pair slowed down downward movement and rolled back to the line Tenkan-Sen, which will become resistance level (0.9517). Estimated support level is one of the previous extremums of the line Chinkou Span (0.9454).
USD/CHF, D1
Look at the daily chart. The line Линия Tenkan-Sen is above Kijun-Sen. The price has broken down the levels of Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen and consolidated below the latter one. The line Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The nearest resistance level is the line Kijun-Sen (0.9542). Next obstacle on the downward movement of the price will be the upper limit of the cloud (0.9366).
Key levels
Support levels: 0.9454 and 0.9366.
Resistance levels: 0.9517, 0.9600 and 0.9542. Trading tips
On the four-hour chart downward movement has slowed down. The pair will again try to test resistance levels of 0.9517 and 0.9600. It is expected that “bearish” trend will continue on the daily chart. For opening long-term positions it is recommended to wait for the confirmation signal from the line Chinkou Span.
Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
1.Current trend of the currency pair GBP/USD
At the beginning of this week quotes of the currency pair GBP/USD went up. The rise was driven by weak data on business activity index in the U.S. manufacturing industry, released on Monday. The index did not meet expectations, declining to the level of 49.0 points. This fact triggered the rise in the price up to the highs at the level of 1.5370. Today, after minor correction, the pair resumed growth. This time investors’ optimism is associated with publication of the data on business activity index in the service sector of Great Britain, which amounted to 54.9 points in May. The price reached resistance level of 1.5370; however did not break down this level yet.
2.Important levels (support and resistance); best entry/exit points
At the moment the pair traded near the level of 1.5350. In the near future temporary downward correction to the level of 1.5330 may take place, which will be followed by ascending movement in price to the target levels of 1.5370 and 1.5410 and probably up to 1.5440. In the current situation it is advisable to open long positions from the level of 1.5330 with profit taking at the level of 1.5410.
3.Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart “Bollinger bands” are directed upward; the price chart is in the upper band. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone; in the near future it may cross the signal line from bottom to top, which will be the signal for ascending movement in price. The lines of Stochastic are crossing the overbought level (80), forming a buy signal.
[B]USD/JPY: The pair continues to decline (12.06.2013)
Current trend of the currency pair USD/JPY[/B]
On Tuesday, quotes of the currency pair USD/JPY went down; the price reached support level of 95.80-95.60, but failed to exceed it. The decline in price was a result of market reaction to the meeting of the Bank of Japan, where it was decided to keep monetary policy unchanged and refrain from its further development. Strengthening in Yen was also triggered by the rise in business sentiment index in large industrial companies of Japan. The index rose up to 5.0 points in Q2, which is the best result since 2011. The rise in business sentiment index in industrial sector along with significant GDP growth in Q1 gives hope for the recovery of Japanese economy and continuation of descending movement in the pair.
2. Important levels (support and resistance)
At the moment the pair has slightly corrected and traded near 96.30-96.60. During the day upward correction may reach the level of 97.30, however it is more likely that that pair will resume downtrend and the price will go down to 93.70 or probably up to 91.30. In the current situation it is advisable to open short positions from the level of 95.60 with profit taking around 93.70.
3. Technical indicators
On the daily chart “Bollinger bands” indicator demonstrates divergence of the lines, confirming downtrend. The price chart has recently broken down the bottom line, giving a chance of temporary ascending correction to the level of 97.30. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the oversold zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are crossing, forming a weak signal of downward movement in price.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
[B]1. Current trend of the currency pair EUR/USD[/B]
The currency pair EUR/USD continues trading in the ascending channel; On Thursday the price has reached four-month highs at the level of 1.3390. The rise in Euro was triggered by positive data on the volume of industrial output in Eurozone. In April this index amounted to 0.4%, which was far above expectations of expert who believed that index would show the decline to -0.2%. Nevertheless, today the pair may shift to downward correction, which could be driven by the data on the US retail sales for May, as the index is expected to be positive.
[B]2. Important levels (support and resistance)[/B]
At the moment the pair traded at the level of 1.3320-1.3340. In the near future the price may go down to the level of 1.3170. However, from this level the price may reverse and resume ascending movement with a chance of reaching the level of 1.3650. In the current situation it is advisable to open short-term sell orders from the level of 1.3300 with profit taking near 1.3170.
[B]3. Technical indicators[/B]
On the four-hour chart “Bollinger bands” indicator does not demonstrate divergence of the lines; all lines are directed upward. The price chart is tending towards the moving average line, giving a chance of downward movement to the levels of 1.3280 and 1.3170. MACD histogram is in the overbought zone, its volumes are decreasing. Stochastic lines are directed downward, also suggesting that downward movement in price is possible.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
1. Current trend of GBP/USD
On Wednesday the British currency continued to go up slowly against the USD, which was triggered by the positive data on British labour market. Number of applications for unemployment benefits fell by 8.6 thousand in May. The pair had reached the level of 1.5700 and shifted to sideways correction. However it is obvious that the pair slowed down its upward movement and investors do not rush to invest into overbought Pound and some investors prefer to close their long positions. Today the pair slightly declined due to poor European data. British economic news is not expected today, while US economic data will be worth of attention. Experts believe that number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will slightly increase, which may have a negative impact on the YSD rate and support the pair GBP/USD. However the data on US retail sales is expected to be positive.
2. Important levels (support and resistance)
In the current situation growth may continue; however the pair is unlikely to go above the level of 1.5750. In future the decline by 200-300 points is possible. US macro-economic statistics suggest that American economy is stabilizing, which can indicate strengthening in the USD soon. The demand for the Pound is gradually decreasing and in this situation the pair is likely to move to support level of 1.5490 (1.5400).
3. Best entry/exit points
It is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5490 (1.5400). It makes even more sense to place pending short positions from the level of 1.5750 with profit taking at the level of 1.5400.
4. Supporting facts
On the four-hour chart MACD histogram shows the decrease in volumes of long positions; histogram is still in the positive zone and is directed downward, indicating the beginning of the downward wave in the near future.
[B]1.Current trend of the currency pair EUR/USD[/B]
The currency pair EUR/USD continues downward movement, caused on Tuesday by the news about the rise in the number of unemployed in Spain by 127.2 thousand people in June. The number significantly exceeded experts’ expectations. As a result, by Wednesday the pair has lost about 100 points and continues to decline to support level of 1.2920. It is likely that the price will continue to fall in advance of statistics from American labour market on Friday, which is expected to be positive.
[B]2.Important levels (support and resistance)[/B]
At the moment the price continues to decline, trying to reach the level of 1.2920. So far the price has failed to break down this level. If this level is exceeded, downward movement may reach the level of 1.2840 or even the level of 1.2750. However, there is a high chance that the price will reverse from the level of 1.2840 and shift to the ascending movement. If the price breaks down the level of 1.2920, it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.2840.
[B]3.Technical indicators[/B]
On the four-hour chart indicator “Bollinger bands” demonstrates divergence of the lines, confirming downtrend; the price chart traded in the lower band. Histogram of MACD indicator is in the oversold zone and its volumes are increasing. However it should be noted that histogram has all signs that it may merge with the price chart, indicating possibility of ascending correction. The lines of Stochastic are directed upward and also suggest that temporary ascending correction is possible.
Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
[B]1. Current trend[/B]
At the moment the pair traded in the ascending channel near the lower limit of the channel, getting technical support for the further rise. Fundamental news, which may trigger the growth will come from the USA and Canada. A lot of data is scheduled for the release today. It is expected that number of jobs in the private US sector will increase, as well as business activity index in the non-production US sector. At the same time experts believe that number of claims for unemployment benefits in the USA and Canadian trade balance will reduce. This data can trigger the rise in the exchange rate.
[B]2. Levels of support and resistance[/B]
Resistance to the growth will be the local highs of 1.0583; upper limit of the sideways channel is 1.0583. Support level is the lower limit of the ascending channel; local lows of 1.0526.
[B]3. Trading tips[/B]
Buy from the current level of price with the target of 1.0583. If this level is broken down and the price consolidates above this level, I would recommend to place protective stop order in the black zone. If the price fails to break down this resistance level and remains in the channel, it makes sense to sell from this level.
Kamil Avad,
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
[B]1. Current trend of GBPUSD[/B]
Last Friday the pair was still declining because of the positive statistics of the Nonfarm Payrolls. In spite of the estimated 162 000 the figures had reached the level of 195 000. Favorable figures consolidated American dollar and GBPUSD fell to the new local minimum 1.4855. After an abrupt descent investors are apprehensive about depositing to the oversold pound. However if we consider future macroeconomic data, the pound will have an opportunity to restore its position. Leaders of Bank of England are going to broach an issue of changing of monetary policy. The majority makes a stand against increasing the volume of asset purchase program, referring to positive macroeconomic statistics and British economic recovery.
[B]2. Important levels: support and resistance[/B]
In the near future it is probable for the pair to go down and to reach key support level. The fall will be followed by a considerable rebound up to 1.5000, 1.5050. Many analytics and investors assume the consolidation up to 1.5200 to the begging of August. We also can not ignore the possibility of resistance level of 1.4840 breakdown. This scenario is highly probable if The Bank of England decides to enlarge the asset purchase program or if the third round of Quantitative easing of FRS curtails.
[B]3. Best entry/exit points[/B]
It is suggested to open long positions with Take Profits at 1.5000-1.5050.
[B]4. Supporting facts[/B]
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone under the zero lineand is directed downwards. It means the “bearish” trend will continue.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Gold. General analysis
On the four-hour chart gold continues to slightly strengthen. The closest resistance level is around 1280 dollars per troy ounce. The breakdown of this level will allow the rise up to 1300-1320 levels.
These days gold consolidates due to increased demand from the Asian countries. Thuswise, higher rate of consumer price rise in China makes gold more attractive investment. They invest in gold in order to protect active assets from inflation. However, globally speaking, the world economic statistics are against the commodity. According to CFCT data, gold volumes in EFT went lower than 2000 tonnes, it’s the lowest level since May 2010.
The possibility of the cut of the quantitive easing program and economic recovery makes big investors to sell the commodity worldwide. This policy ensures the growth of American dollar and undermines the gold price. Political and economic problems with which EU is struggling create an extra demand for American currency.
As trading strategy we propose to open short trades at 1280 with Stop Losses at 1290 and targets at 1256.
[B]NZDUSD. The pair rises, but the reversal is probable
Current trend[/B]
At the beginning of the week the pair were consolidating after an abrupt fall. Last Friday the price fell 150 points down and hit three-week lows at 0.7690. The strengthening of American dollar was caused by positive statistics from labor market. The optimistic data may speed up the curtailment of quantitative easing program. However the decrease of the price has reversed to uprising correction and now the pair has regained its position. 2. Support and resistance levels; best entry/exit points
At the moment the pair is aimed to resistance level 0.7875. If the level is passed the pair will go further up to 0.7915 level and maybe to 0.7980 level. Nevertheless the reversal from the level 0.7875 and downward movement to support levels 0.7820, 0.7780 and 0.7740 are highly probable. Considering the conditions it would be rational to open long trades only after the solid consolidation of the price above 0.7875; short positions can be opened at 0.7850.
3. Technical indicators
On the four-hour chart indicator Bollinger Bands does not show any divergence/convergence, moving average is directed upwards. MACD histogram has reached the overbought zone, producing a signal to buy. Stochastic lines are on the border of overbought zone, a signal to buy is expected soon.
[B]1. Current trend[/B]
On the chart with H1 timeframe we can clearly see a formation of uprising channel. The price is moving towards lower border of the channel, but the fall below 1.0517 is highly unlikely.
In the future we expect the price to rise to the upper border of the channel. The rise can be supported by macroeconomic statistics from the New World. Experts anticipate decrease in housing starts data from 200 000 to 189 000, on the contrary NFIB Small Business index increase up to 96.2. These data can trigger the considerable rise of the pair USDCAD.
[B]2. Support and resistance levels[/B]
Levels 1.0517 and 1.0510 will act as a support to an ascending movement. As for resistance we should pay attention to the several local maximums marked on the chart. Tomorrow’s statistics are expected to be positive and provide a new impetus for an uprising trend.
[B]3. Technical indicators [/B]
If the signal line of MACD indicator breaks through negative histogram, the signal to buy will be confirmed.
[B]4. Trading tips[/B]
I suggest to buy at the current price with the targets at 1.0608. Do not forget about Stop Loss orders, I would advise to place them at the lower border of the channel ― 1.0510.
Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
[B]1. Current trend [/B]
This Monday euro began to rebound slightly after an abrupt fall. The pair has won about 80 pips due to the growth of demand for the currency of the eurozone. Besides, the positive factor for euro is that ECB, IMF and European Commission have come to an agreement on the further recovery of Greek economy. Negative macroeconomic data on Germany haven’t affected the pair fluctuations much. Today’s economic calendar is almost empty for the eurozone and U.S.: there are no important meetings or key releases. We’re anticipating tomorrow’s economic statistics on France and Bernanke’s speech on Economic Policy.
[B]2. Important levels: support and resistance[/B]
While the economic calendar is empty we presume the consolidation of the pair and a little rebound followed by descending movement as American dollar strengthen. If Ben Bernanke announces the stabilization of U.S. economy and curtailment of the third round of Quantitative easing of FRS, the pair EURUSD may fall to the key support level 1.2750.
[B]3. Best entry/exit points[/B]
We suggest to open short trades with Take Profits at 1.2750. Pending short positions can be placed around 1.2900-1.2950 with Take Profits at 1.2800.
[B]4. Supporting facts[/B]
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone above the zero line and is directed upwards, which indicates the beginning of uprising correction.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
[B]1. Current trend of GBPUSD[/B]
This Tuesday British currency was fluctuating around key support level 1.4840. Several attempts to break down this level had failed. The pair was rebounding but under pressure of weak macroeconomic statistics on UK pound fell down to 1.4835 again. GBPUSD started today with an uprising movement and consolidated above 1.4900. Now investors wait for the U.S. statistics release and the main event is a speech of chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke.
[B]2. Important levels: support and resistance[/B]
The situation is controversial. From the one hand strengthening of British currency and rise up to 1.5100 is highly probable. There are a lot of favorable factors: positive economic statistics of Britain, the overbought of the instrument and increase of demand from the investors. From the other hand Bernanke’s speech can support dollar and press pound down below key support level at 1.4840. In this case the next step for the pair is a decline to 1.4700 level.
[B]3. Best entry/exit points[/B]
It is rational now to open long positions with Take Profits around 1.5000-1.5050. It is also possible to place pending sell orders below the support level 1.4840.
[B]4. Supporting facts [/B]
MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone above the signal line and is directed upwards, which indicates the beginning of uprising correction or reversal of trend.
Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
1. Current trend of AUDUSD
From the beginning of the week the pair has been rising. Today’s economic data from China, the main trading partner of Australia, has influenced the pair’s movement. Export from the Heavenly Empire decreased by 3,1% in June, and import — by 0,7%. These data can provoke further weakening of Australian dollar.
2. Important levels: support and resistance
Now the price is still going up to the level 0.9270, this level doubles moving average line of Bollinger indicator. If the price overcomes this line, the new targets will appear at 0.9450 and 0.9580. Otherwise we anticipate reversal and return to three-year minimums. Though the uprising movement is more believable. Stochastic and MACD indicators also signalize the “bullish” trend.
3. Trading tips
With the situation in hand it will be rational to open long trades if the price breaks through 0.9270 level. We recommend to place Take Profits at 0.9450. Short orders can be open starting from the 0.9200 level.
