Hey Lea, thank you for your comment. It’s lovely to see a fellow Queenslander
You are correct, I enter a trade at the close of the breakout candle. Feel free to refer to my examples above in this thread and if you have any other questions, just let me know
Broke to the upside but reversed, did not hit SL but closed at end of session in a loss.
Note here that it did break out to the down side first, but I did not enter as it shown a massive rejection and pull back in the box. At signs like this I will not enter the trade (rule of thumb or simply if it breaks the range but reject and show a very long wick unless it breaks out of the range clearly).
Overall: 3/3 with 3TP, 2SL and 1 closed at partial loss
Still came out profiting $406 for the night/day. Not a bad trade return with a 50% win rate. Keeping in mind though that I am risking USD $200 per trade (2% of my account I am using to trade this strategy).
I might be dropping the 2 USD pairs soon though as they are not performing so well lately and might check out some other pairs, if no good I will just stick with the 4 main EUR & GBP pairs (would have made $700 yesterday if that was the case).
Overall: 3/3 with 3 trades hit SL and 3 trades hit TP - another 50% day with $300 profit for the day/night.
I am definitely dropping the 2 USD pairs after this week - they have not been behaving and not ideal to trade during the London session. Would of won $700 once again yesterday if those two weren’t involved.
Nice work Cloud. Well done. Can I be a pain in the A once more as my old head is slow to grasp information, mainly the entry point. Take the GBP/USD yesterday as an example. The three candle range of 5am, 6am and 7am closed at 12417.4. Extending that range to the right we see the 8am candle with some of its wick below the rectangle and closing at 12409.7. The 9am candle is similar and closes at 12411.0. The 10am candle has half its body inside and a longer wick to the downside closing at 12397.6. The first candle to form completely outside the range is the 1pm candle which closes at 12381.5. Is this our entry point or is it 12409.7 which is the close of the 8am candle?
Sorry if this looks long winded but dummies can be painful. lol
As I’ve already said I trade a variant of the London Opening Range Breakout strategy so I’m very much behind this approach.
But I’ve got to point out trading multiple pairs like this leads to correlation issues - for example GBP/JPY and GBP/USD have strong positive correlation, EUR/GBP and GBP/USD negative. Are you intending to keep on with these trading in parallel?
Hi Mick, it is right at the close of the 10am candle that we enter the trade because it CLOSES outside of the range. the 8AM and 9AM candles both broke out but then pulled back inside the range hence why I did not enter the trade there.
If you wait until the whole candle form from open to close outside to enter a trade it may already be too late.
You can see when I enter after the 10am candle, my position is slightly off the close as it can never be perfect because the market is moving at that time. But regardless, when it closes outside of the range you have determined, you enter the trade.
That’s a good point to consider. As I have said, I am not a professional by any means so I am still learning along the way. Might be something for me to look into with my data from trades I have taken. Thanks.
Im still a little confused Cloud. Both the 8 and 9 am candles closed outside the range even if they did pull back. According to my IG charts, the 8am closed approx 8pts lower and the 9am 6 pts lower. The 10am candle is obviously trending down and 20 points outside the range at close of 12397. So, here’s the kicker…how many points outside the range do you decide to let the handle go with the hatchet and enter the trade?
Hey Mick, that’s the tricky part. Each broker is going to be a bit different in terms of prices and it’s up to the trader to decide when to pull the trigger, you can’t really set a rule for how many pips below or above of the range as it can easily reach out then pull back. Also during the run of the candle, it’d be too quick to react. If you set a pending order and it’s too close, it can reach out, gran your order then run the other way. That’s why for me, I enter at the CLOSE of the candle if and only when I see a clear breakout.
You mentioned in your comment that both 8am and 9am candle closed outside of the range, but if you look at my chart, they did not, even though they did technically stretched out during the run of the candle.
If I see a long wick reaching out side of the range but then the candle closes either inside the range, just on the line of the range or out but only by a little bit, I will wait for another candle for futher confirmation.
If you look at any other examples of mine either winning or losing, you will see I will only enter if the candle breakout then CLOSES outside of the range CLEARLY and STRONGLY.
Thanks Cloud. Much appreciated.
When I said outside the range I meant the PRICE and not the candle.
I feel the entry point is high in the priority list of dos and donts.
I didn’t know that prices change from broker to broker as I thought (wrongly) that
price was determined by demand and regulated by a central exchange.
Doesn’t this give brokers liberty to manipulate prices , stops, etc. to suit their pockets?
I’m not sure what you meant by the price is outside the range but not the candle? The candle move with the price.
The rules are simple, once there is a breakout of the determined range and that candle has CLOSED outside clearly, you enter the trade. If this is still a bit hazey for you until this point perhaps you will get it eventually after doing some further research as I think it can’t be explained much more than that
Prices does vary from broker to broker, hence why some broker have higher spreads and some don’t and you are also right, untrusted brokers have done that in the past where certain long massive candles have longer wicks than usual to catch people’s SL. Regulated and properly licenced brokers (like IG, ICMarkets, FOREX, FXCM, OANDA etc.) won’t be doing this though but of course, prices are stil different broker to broker regarldess. You are essentially playing in THEIR market and have to abide by the rules they set.
Hi Cloud…the example i gave above and earlier in the thread is what I mean by visibly inside or outside the range. It appears from what you say that PRICE is the focal point and not the CANDLE.
Hope I haven’t incurred the wrath of intelligent subscribers here by harping on an issue that’s probably obvious to the more enlightened.
The drinks are still on me and thanks for your patience Cloud.
I think you might be looking at it wrong fri 26th June GU. The range 5am, 6am, 7am lowest point is the low of the 7am candle at 12406. Therefore it’s the 10am candle that breaks and closes below the low and closed at 12388.5 so you take the sell here. Even if the next candle goes back in it doesnt matter. The 1pm candle is the 2nd time it closes outside the range. Just have another look at the chart see if it’s the same as mine.
I will keep posting my results for this strategy until the end of this week. That should give you and anyone else new to this thread an appoximate idea around how it works and how it performs generally. Of course you can backtest further to figure out it’s capabilities.
Here are my trades from yesterday Monday 29 June 2020. Keeping in mind as per my previous update, I am only trading the main 4 EUR and GBP pairs now as I have dropped the 2 USD pairs.
Now with this trade, I was in a real hurry to go so I actually entered prematurely (3 minutes before the candle closes but it still manage to pull back in the range within that timeframe) which rewarded me nicely. Regardless, if you have entered as per the written guide, you’d still close the trade in profit at the end of the day. I’m just reporting how my trade actually went.
Well done Cloud and thanks for charts. You seem to have it cracked.?
Thanks also to Rikster for trying to straighten a dummy. I had another look at that chart for Friday 26th and our IG charts do not match for the close of the 10 o clock candle. Mine closed at 12378.0 while you say yours closed at 12388.5. My close was still outside the range so that is the entry point in any case.
Since last week and since my first post, the strategy has been doing really well without even one losing day yet (touch wood). I am expecting it though so it does not hit me as a surpise as mentioned before, nothing is 100% in this game and a losing day/week is inevitable.
In terms of the issue you are having, I think the point or the lesson to take away from it is for you to set rules and disciplines for yourself to follow. For me for exapmple, if I see it breaks out of the range only slightly or show a rejection (wick sticking out of the range), I will not enter it.
By having a set of rules that you follow religiously, you are able to takeaway guessing when trading which can cause serious issues in the long run.
To help you out further, I just realised I also happen to have an IG account as well. So I went in and check on the particular scenario you mentioned, and I have attached a photo below.
As you can see, this is drawn on exactly the same currency pair and timeframe you’d be looking at.
The first 3 candles are the 3 candles we draw the ranges from. Then you can see it’s not until the 6th candle that we have our breakout and we enter the trades at the CLOSE of that very candle (not when it breaks the range, but when it CLOSE), so we’d enter at the 7th candle as it opens and yes, it does go the other way but you can see it then returned to the trend and goes towards TP.
Might be worth checking whether your charts display bid, mid- or ask price. Charts are usually drawn from the the bid prices but sometimes there is a setting for the others that can be set, this can upset chart comparisons due to spread.