The Equity markets pouted all yesterday morning on the fresh data, only to bring the indexes close to unchanged in the last hour or so of the session.
Overnight, some Australian news came out which blasted the AUDUSD through the .9210 resistance. It also cleared .9250-60, which is now acting as support.
A stop move is in order soon. Where, I’m not sure yet.
Happy Holidays to all!
B Stop moved to .9130[/B]
The Aussie broke it’s trendline from March. After bottoming around .8950, price has now started to ease back up to the broken line.
Will it bounce back down & confirm a switch in sentiment?
Will it remain stuck in the .89-.94 range?
Was it merely a headfake to clear out the excessive longs built up?
Only time will tell… I’ll take my 25 pips and run to the sidelines for now!
Last significant correction ran all through June.
The current correction hasn’t extended as far in price or duration… yet. Behind both corrections are very similar price patterns. Impulsive at first, smoothed, then again impulsive and finally the correction. Both bull runs spanned ~14 weeks & corrected for ~6.
Will price behave similarly after a little more bear action?
…I drew some lines while lusting to buy the charts & decided against it. Had there been a short squeeze mixed with buying pressure the IB moves pre-retail would’ve been larger, I think. (than 100 pips)
There should be an opportunity to get in at a better price soon.
Me thinks me drinks on this fine Sunday eve!
Cheers.
The daily complete a wave down and is now retracing lets see if it breaks the previous high or turn around before it breaks the high to complete another down wave.
Hi guys, I am new here and still working on my practice account 
I have been looking at the aud/usd and I think I see some momentum building considering the rate news tomorrow. Thinking of going short at .9300. Seems to be some resistance at that level and with a fair amount of risk appetite and the interest rate news I think it can be a good opportunity. Any thoughts?
Got a fill at .9130 at the rate decision. Up about 20-30 pips instantly.
Let’s see what happens.
Stop @ .9030
I think your idea is sound Reckamech. I personally still hold a long term bullish bias, so I wouldn’t take the trade. If i had to put my 2 cents in I’d say set a realistic profit target, and don’t be afraid to get out with a winner quickly. If I’m right, any weakness won’t last for long, and if I’m wrong, I’m sure you could re-enter on bearish confirmation!
In the spirit of keeping my win rate up, I’m moving stop to break even.
Meager As It May Be…
…it’s profit time.
Stop moved to .9140.
Not meager anymore
This is what I’m watching at the moment on 4 hour chart. Will see if retail sales tonight can reverse this.
knock knock knockin on 93’s dooooooor…
Will they let us in?
Nine One Eight Oh
STOP MOVE
NFP was a huge surprise, and though it is a bullish sign for the economy people raced to the dollar suspecting rates may be hiked much sooner than previously thought.
Stop was triggered at .9180 for +50 pips
I’ve re-entered at .9150 just now, with a stop at .9050
Hopefully, people have bought enough dollars already today, and the positive sentiment can return giving the trade some tailwinds. Also, I’m noticing a pattern that a lot of the AUD’s action for the week is happening during Interbank trade, pre-retail hours on Sunday. Those crafty folks are getting the move and then sitting pretty while everyone else scrambles all week for 10 pips.
Have a great weekend!
[I]"…And your Long View thread on AUD/USD is great! I went short AUD/USD on Wednesday and was sweating it out Thursday. Came within 9 pips of my stop. Is your bias still long AUD/USD?.."[/I]
Jason! I had the same experience last night, through the looking glass. 4.2 pips away from .9048…
Thanks for the kudos, I’m having a blast.
I still have a long bias, but I must admit it’s faltering in the short-term. If we run up again and fail to break short-term highs I really feel that’s confirmation of a range-bound market.
The pair essentially could still break WAY lower to around .8500 & still remain bullish in the long run, but if that’s the case a quality entry is a ways away.
Thoughts?
The 4H seems to be forming an inverse crown, which is a strong bullish signal. On the daily we are still above the up trend line, if it breaks the daily support then its possible it might drop lower but for now I still have a long bias, also its possible it might consolidate for a while.
…hopefully the dovish stance bodes well for the USD carry.
Cadarkitek, I hope your view works!
See red line at the top for stop level 
.
I think I’ll be closing this one out in a couple of minutes.
I still have a long bias, but I must admit it’s faltering in the short-term. If we run up again and fail to break short-term highs I really feel that’s confirmation of a range-bound market.
I haven’t had a strong bias on AUD/USD for the past month. Only reason for the short was due to failure to make new highs since mid-Nov. My gut tells me to stay on the sideline until first week of January.
I like using the DailyFX Plus SSI data but it’s been lackluster for AUD/USD. Positioning is nearly 50/50 between longs and shorts indicating possible range trading.
I think range trading the last month would’ve been the better stance anyway.
I think your January view holds water.
Is there any particular reason you hear in chatter as to why the AUDUSD seems to be neglected? It’s traded quite neatly compared to other pairs as of late in regards to price action… Seems a technicians friend.
Are the smart one’s just long from the .8000’s and on to more intense & actively managed positions?
After apx. 1 1/2 hours of torture (price flirting with my stop,) I finally got booted a few minutes ago.
-101.7 pips
Now’s a good opportunity to sit back, relax and re-evaluate the market from the sidelines. It’ll take some progression in order to really determine whether conditions are range-bound, or possibly even bearish.
