Not really. You could look at certain events like the big pull-back in gold. That certainly doesn’t help the AUD.
But the biggest reason for me personally losing faith in the continuation of the AUD/USD is because traders are scaling back on their short AUD/USD positions. In fact, they’ve turned positive as of the last reading. I watch the SSI data on DailyFX closely for my trend trades and recently traders haven’t been very committed to their long USD positions.
To me this doesn’t mean the AUD isn’t a good currency to buy anymore…it’s just telling me that we may see a consolidation and I need to be patient for the next entry level. I’m looking for some sort of catalyst that will push AUD higher. Gold consolidating before a push higher could be one. Though a good gold consolidation could take weeks. I guess that’s part of the reason I’m looking towards early January for an entry. That type of waiting for a trade will drive most people crazy
I hate to sound like some crazy Fundamentalist, but the catalysts to push AUD to the upside are running out for me. Gold is dropping, RBA minutes were dovish yesterday… If GDP disappoints tonight, we could see the 90 level tested.
Price has touched the 100 sma on the daily chart. There’s been a slight bounce, but not much conviction. The reason for entry last night was that price broke through it’s 24-day lows, something it hasn’t done since July 8th. Indicators were much more bullish on that occasion, which led it to rise to where we’re at now.
Very little data coming out for AUD through next week to stop the slide. I’m watching the 8800-8750 level in near term as a target. Looking to test the top of the consolidation pattern from back in September at a minimum.
Bearish sentiment has remained, keeping the pair below .8900 which bodes well for the trade. Dow’s up near +100 for the day, and the Aussie doesn’t seem to mind.
[I]update: Moving stop to .8940 to remove some risk. This is today’s low plus some ATR based wiggle room. If it nears there a re-entry should be planned.[/I]
… a very heavy Aussie. It’s pushing towards new lows as I speak. Moving stop to breakeven which is apx an ATR length away from the lows.
I’m so tempted to take profits and run, but the trade is only yielding a ~1:1 r/r ratio right now. This would maintain my Sharpe ratio, but not improve it at all. I need a good 200-400 pip trade to really start beefing up the stats.
The next major support is around the 8590 level. Here’s the 8 hour chart I’m watching:
My confidence level in it dropping further is not as high as my last post due to the holidays and distractions from the market.
On that note, I wont’ be posting again until January 12th. Going to clear the head with a long vacation and will hopefully get some clearer insight on the market to start the new year.
While the retail market closed for the holiday around .8825, interbank trade brought the pair up near session highs at .8850-60
It’s very likely we’ll get stopped on the open today, in which case there are some very attractive short entry areas to watch for.
On a H6 chart, the medium-term Triangle/H&S pattern has it’s neckline at ~.8970. This is the bottom of the range of interest. Above there, a 144EMA rests at .9040 and further up lies the top of the bear channel at .9060. If a fib range is calculated from the last downswing, this .8960/9060 range intersects the 50% & 61.8% retracement lines.
Most likely scenario, I think, is that the bearish bias holds but the unknown variable is how deep a retracement we’ll see.
Keep in mind, long term trends can take long term ‘breathers,’ and that trend is still up-up-up since March. It’s possible at any minute that the bulls will stampede the forest, sending the bears back to hibernation.
but I gotta vent just a little bit. I am flippin fed up with forex!!! To me there is no more logic in it anymore, things just don’t make sense, the movements the patterns. All these patterns they teach us suck! How many times have I seen failed head and shoulders! Failed triangles, short of fibo, in between fibos, bullish engulfing this, bullish engulfing that, 100 day sma, 40 sma, yeah they all work when I don’t need them too. They show us all these clean movements and they all suck, what gives doesn’t anything work anymore? Don’t even get me started on fundamentals, economy this economy that.
When I need support/resistance the price just blows right through!!! When I don’t need support/resistance, man the price stops and turns on a dime right at the support /reisiatnce point! What is going on here???
I have been trading fairly regularly for like 6 years now and I seem to be getting WORSE! I can’t hit a successful trade for the life of me anymore…and it’s not like I’m greedy AT ALL but jeeze I like just a little meat on my trades and I barely get a bite. I got on major hot streak in early June and since then crash, nothing. I though I was getting better but now I realize I just plain suck at trading and I am still convinced I will become a master trader one day! I just can’t hit on any kind of trend!
The only logic I seem to find is that I should do the complete opposite of every trade I make but then makes no sense to me and would just be random.
The Aussie had every reason to stop in the .8900-.8910 area. 38.2 retracement of the 5 waves down from .9192, and MAJOR resistance area but NAAAAAAH, I’ll just blow right through the area as if there was nothing there. Another MAJOR resistance at .8940 but it’ll probably just blow right through that too. Why? Just because.
So much for that nice and clean head and shoulders top which is supposed to go to .8500ish. I mean it’s not dead yet but if it goes much higher you might as well kiss that pattern goodbye. I mean I wasn’t expecting it to go straight down and was fully okay with SOME retracement and correction but this is getting ridiculous!
