I’ve concluded like a year ago that Macfibo suits better with Majors, not so much with crosses… atleast not good with 5ema x 8sma exit mechanism. Did you set a fixed SL? I don’t have big sample to suggest GBPJPY will work or will not work though. However I traded GBPJPY when I first started trading live and used earlier version Macfibo religiously (note, without 5x8 exit system, exit is discretionary and 5x20 opposite, not so much a system… I know)… and it was on H4 (due to my limited time to trade in those days).
Tweaking might be needed to trade this system with volatile pair like GBPJPY. I made it work back in 2008-2009, I decided not to trade the pair anymore as I have realised volatile and violent pairs just isn’t for me. I have ideas how to fine-tune Macfibo for crosses but it needs thorough testing. Maybe someone interested to spend 1000 of hours testing this ‘idea’ in over 500-800 trades…
I agree, an activating candle that is ‘against’ the wave (bull activation candle for bearish signal, bear activation candle for bullish signal) is quite scary. But I’ve jotted down somewhere in my journal that I’ve concluded that it is ‘insignificant’.
I understand the ‘fear’ especially with this trading system with ‘weird’ fibo pullups… but I can assure you, after trading/testing it atleast over 100-200 trades, you’ll become more comfortable and perhaps, become more confident with the system (goes with any system)… but I bet all of you know that already :D.
Thank you guys for taking interest in using/testing the system. :18:
A pretty ‘weird’ Sell activation, as a BULL candle was the activating candle for a Bearish Signal.
*****I take this opportunity to state that, in this case, PT A will be at OPEN, instead of CLOSE. Same thing when a BEAR candle was the activating candle for a Bullish Signal, PT A will be at OPEN, instead of CLOSE.*******
One advantage of this kind of activation, you have ‘more’ room to trade. Technically, you open a trade ‘before’ 100.0 level, so you have 5-10 pips more than the actual projection. Hence, instead of fear, I actually welcome this kind of setup. It was a very quick Macfibo (how I like it ) and hit 161.8 within the hour. For this trade, I put SL @ 38.2 as there were several economic news coming later that day.
Another signal came but we will not take it, it was more or less after London Close.
Talking about statistics, I always thought knowing the % percentage not necessarily can reflect how good/bad the system. I mean, it is also about wether the system could give positive results week in week out. I mean, losses always happen, especially when the system is dependent on MA crossovers. I also believe that how well the system stay in a ‘winning form’ versus ‘losing form’ as vital as well.
I’ve gathered statistics in this quite seriously. Macfibo this year so far suffered THREE losses in row, raking 87 pips. Say If I started trading in those days (Trade Signal #1 21/2/2012 #2 21/2/2012 and #3 22/2/2012), I’d get a losing and bad start… will 87 pips blow my account??
The best run this year is TWELVE wins in a row, raking 502 pips. But checking in the past 4 years, 12 wins in a row only happens 2-3 times. Average winning run is between 4-5 wins… averaving between 120-150 pips. This statistics study helps me to determine my MM and Risk Management. Ofcourse past data doesn’t predict future but it helps to determine patterns.
I mean, if today and tomorrow gives BAD trading signal… I can take the losing trade to the chin and say “I am 1 to 2 signals away to start in a winning run again”…
One study I’ve started to indulge is EURUSD range. As I was reading through my old journal… I said I want to study more on daily range… Now that i’ve read this : Best Days of the Week to Trade | When Can You Trade Forex? | Learn Forex Trading , I think it is important to know which days are the most profitable (within Asian-London open) and see any correlation between false macfibo with days that range are mostly small etc etc…
I did. But I bottled and took some early manual pips when it started to look like going the other way. Never mind. Would have been ok at 1:1 RR as well. I need to be more mechanical about this!
I have been reading this topic, and it sounds fantastic to me, I m trying this system on USD JPY right now and 77pips of profit at this moment.
I have a little tip for stop loss though, people here seems concerned about it.
I use a trailing stop system with 80 points which means the price will be followed 80 points away from your entry. I use MT4
It did reach 130 pips, but reversed, I banked 68 pips
5ema crossed above 20sma. It is a valid signal. I see you already LONG the pair. Just exit mechanically, stick to the cut-loss exit style of your choice (5x8 or fixed SL).
) and hit 161.8 within the hour. For this trade, I put SL @ 38.2 as there were several economic news coming later that day.
anyway seems today looks like a long re-entry but i could be wrong 
