Macfibo system

MY ‘SIGNIFICANT’ SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE - Macfibo Aid

The last thing I want to do now is to overcomplicate things. So, once you see the chart and don’t know what I am talking about, just ignore it and keep things to the utmost basics. I just want to share my thought process for next week. Identifying significant S/R is vital in my trading. The chart below (levels) are the several moves I am anticipating for next week and will plan react accordingly.

Objective Method Identifying Support And Resistance

I firstly pick previous day’s atleast for the past 3-5 days previous hi lows and mark it and see how many times had it been tested as both Resistance and Support. I mean, today’s support can be tomorrow’s resistance. Vice versa. If the level have been tested atleast twice, I will keep it in the chart (or mentally remember it, or write it in a posted notes and stick it where you can see).

Incase you ask the following questions :

Why past 3-5 days? Isn’t the last say 10 days high lows is not important? : It is still important but EU ranged between 120-150 pips so I am focusing on S/R levels that is within that range at the time of my trading day.

Does the day’s high and low have to be tested twice inorder for it to be qualified as ‘Significant’? : Not necessarily. It is worth noting though because it could be a place where price could reverse again. It helps if some strong reversal signal occur in the previous hi lo area. But I take more attention on previous high lows,that is within the range, that had been tested more than twice… the more the merrier.

Do you see higher timeframe to plot ‘Significant S/R Levels’? : I do but I will not take any attention from it if it still far away from current price action. Like I said, within the range.

Can I ignore S/R Levels and just trade Macfibo and TP at the fibonacci levels : Ofcourse you can! :smiley:

Will having S/R Levels improve the effectiveness of Macfibo? : I believe less is more in Forex Trading. More indicators mean more conflicting signals. Same with this. If you think it just confuse you even more, just trade Macfibo in how it suits you. Based on how I trade and my personality, having S/R levels doesn’t ruin my ‘objectiveness’ approach in trading, it might ruin yours.

You mentioned Daily/Weekly Pivot, how about those? : You can add it to the chart as well. But I recommend just use previous day’s high lows. How I use the daily pivot is a bit different. But thats for another day.

Which is more important? Macfibo Levels or S/R Levels : I can only answer based on how I analyse and trade. I look at the Macfibo Levels first then I look at S/R Levels. If the levels almost equal (1.618 with previous hi low), then I will tp it at 1.618, if S/R level almost equal to say 200.0… well… I still tp at 161.8… those ‘remaining’ space can come in handy in ‘re-entry’ signals.

Can you explain it even more clearly, I am sort of new to this. Sorry if I am bothering you much :slight_smile:

Thank you very much for the recent posts, sufian! In my opinion, they really fulfill Macfibo and help to understand the re-entering mechanism aswell as S/R impact. This info will certainly contribute to v.2 of the system!
In addition, thanks for constant updating and an open-minded approach towards other traders, commitment is really important;)
Keep up with all the good work!

Hello Everyone,

I have been following this thread for a while now and used MacFibo a few times with success. I cant wait to put my hands on the 2.0 version!!!

For those like me who are occasional traders and have a day job, I use AlertFX to warn me where there is a cross between the EMA and the SMA. I have AlertFX send the info on my cell phone by SMS. This way I dont have to look at the charts all the time… :wink: Of course, I use fixed SL and TP since I cant be there monitoring all the time.

Here is the URL for those interested: Alert FX - Forex Alerts for Free

Happy Pippin!!

Thankyou very much for considering the request.

By skype i only wanted to have live text chat and there we can also share charts as well. Other fellow members can also advise for better options.

Regds

First let me say how impressive this forum thread is including the insightful discussions are great. I do however question the
mechanical aspect of entries, targets and exits with this method. The organic nature of market movements makes me
wonder if this method really can be long term successful in a constantly changing market. Is there a plan for avoid range
bound periods of time?

That being said this method has been presented and well documented here in this section of baby pips. Can a mechanical
method produce in an random and chaotic market. I would be interested in any feedback to this question.

Hi Greg, Thank you for that good but difficult question. I can only answer your question based on how I’ve performed as a trader since I first started playing around with candlesticks 5 1/2 years ago. Will this method work in the long term? I do not know actually.

Like you, I am vary wary how market changes ALL THE TIME. GBPJPY for example, it was a beast back in 2007-2009, with daily range can explode up to 400 pips… but the last 12 months… GBPJPY average range have shrunk from 200+ to 140 pips. That fact alone, very little fact, is proof that forex market is very volatile and changes constantly. Its like the earth we lived on, it constantly moving but we don’t feel it (except for earthquakes). Same thing with the forex market.

[B]Changes I’ve made on Macfibo since 2008[/B]

As you know, I traded Macfibo with GBPJPY, EURNZD and EURJPY before and it worked well for me for a year or so… but after string of losses, I had to fine-tune Macfibo interms of adding/removing trading filters, conditions and even pairs to trade it with. Now, currently I am trading live with the refined parameters of Macfibo with considerable consistent result.

What I’ve learnt so far in my very short trading ‘career’, the worst thing you could do is to stop learning and think you’ve made it. I try to fine-tune, experiment with several trading parameters with Macfibo in the sidelines when I am not trading or during weekends and I log it. Incase you haven’t noticed, I am currently testing Macfibo with fixed SL, which I havent done in 2010-2011… I only started to use Fixed SL this year… because I’ve noticed 5ema and 8sma gives ‘fake’ exit signals more than ever now… just an example how we need to fine tune your system. Which one of the reason why I posted this system here in the first place, to share it so other people can test it, try to make it better.

S/R analysis is pretty new addition to Macfibo trading. Back in 2008-2010, I was still learning and so naive and thought all i needed was moving average crossovers and fibonacci. I began to study on pure price action, so religiously until I spent months not touching any indicators, but learning naked price action. I am not saying I am an expert on the subject… far from it but, but i’ve learned one or two things about it and so far I believe forex indicators come and go (whatever happens to Silvertrend, williams, gators, parabolics, CCI etc…) but price action have sustained to the test of time… Support And Resistance. I’ve added S/R analysis to further filter Macfibo signals.

Learning on the fundamentals is also another addition to Macfibo trading, which I totally ignored until late 2010. I tried to find reasons, technical reasons that is, why price suddenly spiked to the opposite of my position etc etc. Hence, I put a rule into my trading, to manage my trade before news time or put fixed SL during news time. Understanding the fundamentals have improved my trading as well.

Plans incase EU hits range-bound? I do hope Macfibo can sustain in those times since the system’s edge is to project exhaustions point anyway… so perhaps right now 1.618 target would give me 30-40 pips now… perhaps it will be just 10-15 pips. Will mechanical systems work in chaotic random market? As i said earlier, it serves me well so far so I want to believe it can work as long as we dont stop learning, studying and try to make your current system better and prepare to accept your system won’t work anymore and start again (developing a new system).

Wow! Very well said. A very good answer to a difficult question. I’m glad you were not offended. The key I think is like
you said being welling to learn and adapt. I have learned a great deal from your blog here on baby pips. I have adapted what I have learned on this blog and I’m beginning to experience some success. My signals do not depend on a specific cross of
ema/sma but rather a retrace within a trend and then enter as it returns to trend. Stops and targets must be adaptive to the specific conditions presented by the currency and market. I believe that there is organic aspect to the market that cannot
identified by a mechanical signal. Specific outcomes can be expected if certain conditions are met. It is never the exact same way. Similar to chaos theory patterns. A snow flakes have common patterns but never the same. In addition those that
argue that price action alone are silly because indicators themself can be read just the same as price bars. Indicators are just tools.

The normal activation :

5ema cross below 20sma. Sell Signal. Candle that activates the crossover is Black Candle. Then PT A will be at CLOSE.

5ema cross above 20sma. Buy Signal. Candle that activates the crossover is White Candle. Then PT A will be at CLOSE.

The ‘weird’ activation :

5ema cross below 20sma. Sell Signal. Candle that activates the crossover is White Candle. Then PT A will be at OPEN.

5ema cross above 20sma. Buy Signal. Candle that activates the crossover is Black Candle. Then PT A will be at OPEN.

Offended? Why would I be?? Hehehe. It was a good question and that have crossed in my mind everytime I open a trade and wondered “Will this system works for the next 10-15 years?”. I am glad you’ve learn something from this thread. Keep reading and posting and also, ask questions buddy. :smiley:

Thank you for the interest of the system. And thanks for sharing Alert FX with everyone. :smiley:

Thank you for answering :smiley: Helped alot

sufiansaid, how does the competition work?

You have done SUCH a wonderful job of helping all of us, updating the thread with your trades and most importantly actually having backtest proof of your system - I’d love to give your system my vote! :slight_smile:

Keep up the great work, MUCH appreciated!

Same here, I 'm keeping an eye on the forum for the poll to open. Let us know if you see it!

Thank you for the kinds words but I think I am just doing what other traders here would do. :slight_smile: I am not sure how it works…
Click here I think to learn more about it…. It would be nice to be voted but as I said in earlier pages of the thread, doesn’t matter if I ‘win’ (if you call it that anyway)… I just want to help others. :smiley:

Happy to help. :smiley: You can ask as many questions you need… just dont ask for my ATM card pin number LOL…

MACFIBO EURUSD ANALYSIS 26/3/2012

To those who entered a re-entry trade and let 5ema 8sma to decide when to exit the trade, if I may give you a tip, move your SL to breakeven (or move to give yourself 5-10 pips) and enjoy the risk free trade because worst case scenario right now is you lost nothing :). Awesome right? No recross as of now, since it’s Monday Asian session, I usually expect quite snoozefest price action.

What am I anticipating?

Today I want to add something new to my usual EURUSD Analysis post, adding S/R levels that I defined as ‘significant’. It will help me to further filter and ‘predict’ (not that I can… hence the air quote) price movement. Price is now playing around inside 200.0/261.8 gap. Price could continue to move up today and test 261.8 (with H4 Macfibo have been triggered, I am not surprised it could move further up).

Should EU wants to be evil and start ranging today, I’ve projected the SR Lines where price probably be ‘dancing and bouncing’. The one move I prefer is a retracement towards 20SMA and make a quick Short trade on Macfibo Sell trigger. However… Anything can happen today. It could range (see chart and arrows), it could break resistance and hits 261.8… or it could… well move according to what I prefer. We will take one activation at a time and be wary of the S/R lines and also the
Fundamental Stuff today

Happy Trading.


Short EUR, target 13229?

I took a look at Data Window (MT4), 5ema is still 4 pips above 20sma after that candle close. We will wait after this hour’s candle closes later… in less than 30 minutes. No signal yet.

EDIT : I took another look on your chart, it seems there is a valid signal on your chart though. My chart says different thing. One of those moments… but yeah…

Thank!
My (MT4), 5ema have crossed the 20sma already. Will check again
Any way, waiting for: German Ifo Business Climate, before take trade is not bad ideal.