Macfibo system

graph with ATR AND ADR

TAKEN LONG so far 8 out 11 in green …thnaks


Hi Steo,

Granted there was a 5x8 recross to the direction of the Macfibo. Just to recap, I am pretty rigid with Re-entries (infact it is part of my solid trading rule) that re-entry candle should solidly close above/below S/R. I was hoping the bearish candle to close atleast 10-20 pips below yesterday’s low. I didn’t get caught as I didn’t take it as a valid signal (on re-entries) anyway.

Just to clarify, incase those trade Macfibo with live account, NOT TO trade re-entries yet, not until I’ve released Macfibo PDF ver 1.1. You can paper trade it or demo trade it though maybe you can found something interesting.


i c…overlooked yest low :frowning:

Sufian Said, Have you entered in this trade?


Update: Because of Major News release, I am on the sideline now. Closed just above the BE.

Yes i have. SL at 38.2 for now. tp@ 1.618.

I m in this trade as well, but have SL at 61.8 tp at 1.618. Its going down at this moment

Hee hee… JPY.

Ready to long again at US open.

Same here bro, I am waiting for the signal
EUR JPY is also showing the buy signal

Setup forming on GBPUSD H4, waiting for confirmation candle :slight_smile:

QUICK MACFIBO UPDATE

My SL got hit, a positive housing data failed the Macfibo EURUSD buy. Not much success for Macfibo in EURUSD so far (eventhough now record still LWWWL). I see some success on other crosses such as EURJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY and XAUUSD. It’s a week for crosses and Gold.

There is a sell signal but the size of the candle and my lack of knowledge in housing data, makes me want to skip this signal. One of my trading friend told me I was wrong to buy EURUSD since it was too close with significant resistance. Not surprising that he thinks so because he is very rigid with S/R lines with both re-entries and basic entries. He did not trade it because 127.2 more or less equals to that resistance.

Well, 30 pips loss is a slap. I’d take that loss over 100 pips loss anyday. :smiley:


I will be in the chatroom, room “macfibotraders”… for 30-50 mins or so… if you wanna chat and ask questions etc… I’ll be there. cheers.

http://forums.babypips.com/addonchat.php

I am trying this system on the H4 Chart. Let see what happens

Lost pips on the first trade aswell, same TP, same SL. On the other hand I didn’t hesitate to get on the recent sell Macfibo EURUSD, though I simply set the TP at 127.2;)

Is macfibotraders a room you have created for those of us who trade the system because I just went to the chatroom and I didn’t see the name macfibotraders anywhere?

Its open to everyone actually, I got disconnected last night (blackout). Sorry about that. :frowning:

Just to share something to this thread subscribers, I’ve read a comment by Marshall Clarke about Macfibo (who is he?). In short, based on my own intpretations anyway, he believes that Macfibo is very subjective. Though he made valid points such as fibonacci projections, S/R lines can mess the system up when it is ‘automated’, but I don’t plan and will never plan to to EA-tized this system. It is true and I agre that this system is not suitable for this particular contest IF the contest is about converting the manual-based system into automated system. I missed that one part out hehehe. Do you guys think Macfibo is subjective (ignoring news candle rule which I know is discretionary)?
[B]
Can it be EA-tized?[/B]

I was a programmer myself (during my teenage years) and though I think picking PT A is straightforward, PT B can be tricky to code (Do you determine recent fractal or recent daily high as PT B?). TP-ing should be straightforward to, basically you calculate 61.8% of the range of PT A and PT B… though PT B should be determined correctly, hence this is where a potential Macfibo EA could fail. In picking significant S/R lines, this can be left out. I mean I’ve mentioned how I am rigid with it interms of re-entries, not basic entries.

My conclusion, though he made valid points, I do not believe Macfibo is THAT subjective. hehehe

Is any body using the alertfx for crossover alerts? I tried to set it up twice and I have not recieved an alert yet? I tried it with Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf and a crossover just occured on Usd/Chf but I recieved no text. Any suggestions?

Unfortunately I don’t use it buddy. Sorry can’t help.

I must say I am impressed with your work. So basic yet functional. Well done! It is showing some promise.


MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 29/3/2012

I did not enter the 2nd EU signal (which was a sell). Unlike Bernanke’s comment, housing data is something I did not understand and I wasn’t sure how it would effect the price action. However, I will record that activation anyway to 2012 Macfibo Statistics. There was a potential 40+ pips to be harvested, using 5ema 8sma recross, you’d lose 20 pips.

Before you go, take a loot the scary looking chart…

A trader I’ve known for 3 years asked me last night :“EU hasn’t hit 161.8 Four Trades In The Row, should I panic? Is this a sign Macfibo doesn’t work anymore”

After one bad week? There is a word in soccer towards goal-scoring strikers that I like to use “You don’t become a bad player overnight (not able to score goals in 3-5 matches in a row)”.

Like other system, particularly MA crossovers, will go through a ‘losing streak’ due to Ranging markets. Am I bothered by this… 4 times in a row not hitting 161.8? As far as I am concern, this year, there has been 67% winners based on BASIC ENTRIES without taking account on news candles and S/R lines and re-entries. I can tell you now, though you dont have to believe me, that year in year out since 2006 data until end of 2011, every year the win rate averaged 68.8%… based on basic entries. Worst losing streak this year is 3 losses in a row. From these 4 trades, only 2 became losers (first two raking 40 pips and 5 pips respectively).

Statistically, Macfibo still doing ‘fine’ this year. You can’t explain everything in technical terms why EU unable to hit 161.8 from the last four valid signals (I didn’t find the last signal as valid but that is my own discretion, why i strongly suggest you all disregard completely, keep it simple) but you can somehow explain in terms of the fundamentals. It has been a rollercoaster. First it was German IFO, then it was Bernankes dovish comments (weakens the Dollar), then the Consumer Confidence and then the housing data (which contradicts my own sentiment that the dollar has weakened based on bernanke’s comment)

I am not saying this to ‘defend’ my baby (Macfibo)… not at all. All I am saying ALL SYSTEM go through bad spells… some up to 10-15 trades in a row. I remember following Rob Booker via twitter, when he was in a very bad run around April-May 2011 trading EU using his Wallaby system… and he is a very very very good technical trader. Macfibo never go through a 10-losses-in-a-row bad spell. The worst that I’ve recorded was 4 times in a row… raking 110 pips (EU)… i believe it was in 2010… So what we are going through now is ‘not a bad spell’.

Another reason I am stating this is because one of my mistake when I first started trading, I CHANGE SYSTEMS THAT SUITS ME AFTER A BLIP.. I don’t want the newbies here (both silent observer and contributing members) to do that mistake. If you strongly believe Macfibo is for you (and trade the EU), then do not panic. All systems go through bad spells.

Thanks.