Thank you! Will continue reporting, if you want any pairs added I can do them too, hope this helps someone:)
Have a nice weekend!
Thank you! Will continue reporting, if you want any pairs added I can do them too, hope this helps someone:)
Have a nice weekend!
to add to sufian, even if the H1 is counter trend to the larger time frame i feel it is still valid as in the H1 TF the prices will pullback/retrace without regards to the main trend. remember the H1 actually tells us where the direction will head earlier before the larger TF shows us
I couldn’t say it better myself.
Those who trade GBPJPY here, I want you guys to read this :
http://forums.babypips.com/gbpjpy/43952-gbpjpy-daily-range-studies-post337342.html#post337342
okay thanks, but the problem is, since H4 showed Buy signal I went long with the pair. And now I have 2 positions one Long (H4) and one sell (H1)
How should I deal with this situation, I m abit new to this …
Info is great and presented clearly, but is it only GBPJPY you’ve studied range projecting on?
It’s wrong to have such a situation actually :S
Just follow them as 2 “different” trades, checking macfibo signals on different TF for different trades
Well yes it’s the same thing I said xD
What do you mean with “wrong”?
I know it was not done with this purpouse, but basically you find yourself in a position with 2 trades on the same pair, a long and a short, “compensating” each other, which goes against one of the Gann’s 24 rules.
It’s quite an uncomfortable trade, once again: I’d follow them as 2 different trades, wathcign them from the two different TF, hoping to catch the TP of the H1 trade without hitting the SL of the H4 one, but sounds unlikely to me
good luck mate!
Lets see what happens when the market re-opens. I was in profit in H1 sell trade at the time the market closed
Sufiansaid I have noticed that the 1.27 gets hit alot even when the 1.618 doesn’t. My question is have you ever tested how many times the 1.27 gets hit on the Eur/Usd, if so what did you come up with and thanks again for all your help.
You know i have buddy. The stats are around 75% but i havent identified any definitive patter when price will stop there apart from when this level equals to significant SR or activation by a huge candle. I have several ideas how to take advantage of the amazing percentage price hitting 127.2 but haent found the time to proprly test it yet.
hi sufian just wondering if last week was the longest losing streak u ever seen in ur 4 years of live trading the macfibo?
In term of consecutive times it doesnt hit 1.618’ nope that is not the worst. In terms of consecutive losses, it is not the worst. the worst run in terms of not hitting 1.618 is 5 times, without inclusion of filters such as SR analysis. Worst losing streak is 4 times. But that is just based on my memory, i will check my log once im at home and will post the exact stats. Cheers.
Just some time before trades are open again quick signal warnings update:
EURUSD H1 possible Macfibo buy activation:
USDJPY H4 indicators are close aswell:
GBPUSD H1 indicators go really close to each other, could be anything really, but a push down will activate Macfibo sell:
Hello Muneeb,
I am very happy that you have this great determination testing and trading Macfibo system. That you deserve a praise. The more you trade/test the system, the more comfortable you are going to be and dozens of AHA moments will come to you and add that to your trading edge.
Each person has their own style of trading and you trading two different positions in the same pair isn’t really new, I know some pro traders do it. However, in terms of Macfibo, I believe it is best to stick to one timeframe at a time and one activation at a time. It is ok that you have done this. It is a good learning process.
Once I am on this, I also don’t really reccomend trading a pair that is correlated. For eg if you already long EURUSD, I don’t think it is recommendable to short USDCHF as these pair heavily correlated. Some will argue ofcourse as this will diversify their risk. But I won’t reccomended (mostly due to I never see the point of it, you might do) it. Stick to one activation. If you still want to trade both, you might as well trade EURCHF activation.
So to summarise :
a) One activation at One timeframe at a time
b) Choose one pair from two heavily correlate pair
[B][U]Money Management and Exit Strategy[/U][/B]
I’ve mentioned in the PDF that Money Management and Exit are the two most important thing in trading, infact, the 95% (I think i said this also in me blog) deciding factor wether you are going to be successful in trading or not. (discipline is important too!.. discipline is sticking to your exit rule!)
Successful trading is measured in many ways. Person A definition of trading success might be different to Person B. I harvest in average of 250 pips per month using Macfibo system for the past 3 years. Some months are good (more than 250 pips), some months are less good (less than 250 pips)… and some months are horrendous (less than 100 pips). My good months is what my gauge as ‘successful trading’. Some might think it is not ‘successful trading’ as their definition is harvesting how much I make in a month in a single week or even day.
No matter what is the gauge, Money Management is the key to achieve this, ne it 100 pips an hour or 10,000 pips in two weeks.
When some cousins or friends of mine wants to start trading Forex or Stocks or Commodities, one of the first questions I ask them is ‘how much money they are willing to lose’… because trading is all about “managing how much we will lose in a trade”. They were puzzled and though forex is about ‘managing how money we will make’. Thats what I thought too. But it is not the case… based on my own experience anyway.
The truth is EVERY MECHANICAL METHOD WORKS. I mean, you can add any random indicators (providing you use it correctly ofcourse, I mean you don’t want to buy when stochs says overbought won’t you?) and more often you will get good trade signals. Add any random numbers in your moving average, any breakout of the moving average will give you decent signals. But no system will work without money management and thorough study on exit strategy.
Like mechanical trading methods or MA crossovers methods, there is no “MAGIC” number in ‘picking’ the right risk percentage. Same goes to money management. Do you HAVE to risk less than 2% (like what I suggested in my blog)? Can you risk up to 10% in a trade like most trading gurus will tell you NOT to do?
New traders will always acknowledge “Yes, we need to have proper risk/money management”… but then come the annoying subjective part…“How much to risk? 2%? 3%? 5% 10%?” The answe is “Up to you!”. When I said Up to You doesn’t mean you just decide out of the blue and decide “Ok… I will risk…ermmm… 5%… no no… 10%…yes 10%… i will risk 10%”. In my opinion, it is entirely up to how your trading method perform in the last 500-1000 valid trades.
One forum member ask me how much do I set my SL when I trade macfibo without setting a fixed SL. What I my position size. How I set my money management is considered ‘weird’ to some people, but it has worked for me so far. My risk profile is highly dependent on the trading method I use. One stats I really look for when backtesting a system is what is the worst losing streak this system will produce in the last 500 trades? 100 pips loss? 70 pips loss? Then I will work with that number with how much risk I am willing to risk in one trade. One rule I set is I want to risk the certain amount of %, that even after suffering 10 consecutive losses, I still have 50% of my trading account.
Macfibo after tested over 1000 trades, the system, so far, NEVER gives me 10 consecutive losses and the worst losing streak is below 100 pips and the average loss is 30-40 pips. From these numbers I work how much I will risk and so so. It fits to my personality. I risk no more than 8% and not less than 3% in each of my single trade. If I plan to open two positions in a day, I will divide the risk or I risk more to the trade setup that is more probable to be a winner (which is quite weird because why would u want to be in a trade that has no good probability to be a winner in the first place… more on that in the future).
Money Management and your exit strategy is very important. In Macfibo, there are two ways you can cut your loss. Fixed SL and 5ema and 8sma. Up to you how you work with this. WIll you combine the two like you set a fixed SL incase an ugly news candle hits while you will exit when 5ema 8sma recross before the loss gets worse? Or you think statistically sticking to 5ema 8sma recross exit strategy increase the chance of you limiting losses or fixed SL to give Macfibo more room and time to develop and hit the TP. Backtest the trading parameters, obtain stats on average losses etc and work a numbers on it (risk).
I hope you get what I am trying to say here. My english is not as good as it should be. Any question please do ask! i think that is the best way to understand about Macfibo’s MM.
Just to summarise :
a) There is no fixed one size fits all ‘number’ in risk percentage
b) Study and obtain statistics on losses numbers in your system
c) Work the numbers together with how much you willing to risk, see if it is compatible
d) Always risk 2% or less when you just starting live trading
e) When designing a system, spend more time on exit strategy (cutting loss)
f) I might not mention this above, but “you must not risk more than 2%” is a myth.
Thanks for the report buddy! I am not on my chart right now. So these update chart really helps. Thanks.
I’ve studied obviously EURUSD, GBPJPY, GOLD, EURJPY, GBPCHF, Brent Oil. Yes I’ve studied many, only because Excel is Da-bomb!!