Macfibo system

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592

The purpose of your discussion is definitely worth it, on the other hand, unfortunately, I’m not experienced enough to say a definite for or against in it. Personally I would still go with the full size of the position even when I aim for 127.2 (as you have correctly underlined this I usually do on long “sentimental” candles), but that’s just me.

I would like to review some of the Macfibo trades for today, was an interesting day indeed:

Number 1. EURUSD H1
Played a trick with signaling to sell, reversing and hitting SL @ 38.2 and hitting the initial 161.8 TP in a few hours with that huge candle:

eurusd h1.jpg700×302 41.4 KB

Number 2. USDJPY H1
Perfect trade with TP hit @ 161.8 unless you set it a bit too high and was forced to exit with 5x8 (on the other hand there was no loss either), but 161.8 was hit anyway with the huge candle:

usdjpy h1.jpg700×302 43.9 KB

Number 3. GBPUSD H1
Ideal Macfibo trade for today… Just see yourself:

gbpusd h1.jpg700×302 42.8 KB

Number 4. XAUUSD H1
Shaky, but… Great success!

xauusd h1.jpg700×302 41.6 KB

593

CryAgony, just my two cents:

Having multiple profit taking levels does wonders for a trader’s state of mind. You get to cash in some $$$ along the way and this keeps you in a healthy mindset, even if the trade should then turn around and stop out the rest of the position.

However, this method of trading over the long term is simply less profitable. It’s simply maths that you can go do and I did already. Keeping your full amount of lots on, targeting the ultimate take profit level will definitely be more profitable.

You DO however have a good idea with the 127% fib level :wink:

…here’s what I’ve been doing: as soon as price closes above 127%, I move my stop to break-even. I don’t mean to disrupt your train of thought because you are certainly on the right track with the tweaking of this method, but for interest’s sake go ahead and see how many losses you would have saved if you moved it to BE after close above 127% :wink:

We’ll catch up again soon!
Cheerz

594

Hello yucca!

[I]What are you doing when 5x8 cross and trade is not loosing but even hit 161 fibo? I know that is not happening every day but I saw this setup in backtesting…
[/I]
[B]I am sorry I believe I am not sure what you mean buddy. Did you mean what do I do when there is a 5x8 recross before hitting 1.618 but ended up hitting 1.618 anyway? Sorry, can you rephrase your question. I am more than happy to help.
[/B]

[I]At the beginning of this thread you mention you have EA for 5x8cross trade exit would be possible to share it?[/I]
[B]I do have plans to share this Macfibo Exit EA but one trader reported a bug so I will have to check it again before sharing it to all of you. I don’t want to publish faulty EA.[/B]

[I]another think is that I`m trying to do back test logs for my strategies but as I can see from your answers you have much more information in your backtest log then I have. Can you post a few lines of your journal or back test log? [/I]
[B]Did you mean you want me to extract some stuff from my backtest logs? Like sayings, findings? I am sorry that i don’t completely understand your request. Rephrase please.[/B]

595

[B]In response to CryAgony’s positiong scaling out idea And Cyanidez trade management upon hitting 127.2 idea :[/B]

Hello everybody!

First of all, thanks very much for the interest of the system and the thread so far have served two of my objectives : Help new traders to trade objectively and taste some profits AND ‘provoke’ ideas to make MACFIBO an effective system, perhaps turning it from 65% winning system into say 70-75%.

In CryAgony’s idea, I must say it has come to my mind over the years. Infact I even experimented with a lot of random levels such as 1.500, 1.518 to where I should start ‘managing’ my trades. . The idea is brilliant actually. Removing 50% of your position when hitting 127.2 and move SL to BE is to make sure WHATEVER happens, you will not lose the trade. There are two ways people will see this… that kind of trade is “glass is half full” or “glass is half empty”. It is obvious the advantage of this technique is to remove RISK as quickly as possible.

Cyanidez idea is different as well, when price close above 127.2, he moves his entire position to BE without taking any his position off, this he risk not getting ANYTHING but not risking any losses. This idea is brilliant too. Infact, I’ve tried this when I decide to babysit my trade. Advantage is you are up to take the WHOLE wave providing price makes strong higher highs candle after candle (for a buy ofcourse) or lower lows candle after candle (for a sell).

One idea, as Confirmado prefers, and I think the most basic but yet gets good statistics over 3+ years… just take your full position and TP it at 1.618 (or 1.272 if certain conditions led you to TP it there such as S/R or news candle) and just detach yourself from the trade (ofcourse set your fixed SL!).

All are brilliant ideas and i believe it is up to you to backtest this and see if the results after 100-200 test trades (I call this PHASE 1 BACKTESTING… oh which reminds me I haven’t post my way backtesting… soon) meets your objective. As I said before earlier in the thread, Macfibo is a decent system but it is not a one-size-fits-all. Some might add price action with it, some might just TP 10 pips below 1.618 just to make sure he doesn’t get [B]1-pip-short-of-TP-and-reverse-I-Go-Crazy[/B] syndrome!

Thanks for the contribution guys! It is awesome.

596

Confirmao are you trying to make me look lazy??! HAHAHAHHA… Awesome updates buddy! Thanks a lot. I am sure readers of this thread will find it helpful too!

597

MACFIBO SYSTEM UPDATE 04/04/2012

EURUSD

Not a particular good day for EURUSD Macfibo trades. There were two signals yesterday and both failed to hit 1.618… well the second one did, with the help of that FOMC minutes but meant nothing as both exit styles were triggered (fixed SL at 38.2 and 5ema 8sma cross).

1024×459

Not a good day for EURUSD yesterday but I am sure some other pairs did pretty well such as GBPUSD and USDJPY.

Macfibo Last 10 Trade Signal Performance

Allow me to discuss on Macfibo’s performance on EURUSD so far, especially since the start of ‘bad run’ at the end of March. Four losses in a row but far from the worse this year (check the Updated PDF attached below or in first page). The worst run of loss was 87 pips (over 2 losses in a row), if in terms of number of consecutive losses without taking note the total number of pips, then this 4 times in a row loss is the worst this year.

The last 5 trades form as of today it is WWWLL (Net pips of 45 pips). The last 10 trades form as of today is WLLLLWWWLL (Net pips of 14 pips… oh, not a loss).

As i stands now this year, the worst run is still 87 pips, overshadowed by the best run of 502 pips. The average winning run is 98 pips, whilst the average losing run is 39 pips. In terms of consecutive run, the average best run is 3.8 trades in a row. The average worst run is 2.4 trades in a row.

MACFIBO STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 04/04/2012)

Average Win : 23.3 pips
Average Loss : 34.6 pips
Net Pips : 846 pips
Win Percentage : 62.5%

XAUUSD STATISTICS 2012 (Updated 04/04/2012)

Average Win : 53.2 pips
Average Loss : 61.9 pips
Net Pips : 1215 pips
Win Percentage : 66.6%

MacfiboEU_record_2012_04042012.pdf (116 KB)

MacfiboGOLDRecord_04042012.pdf (119 KB)

598

MACFIBO ANALYSIS : SIGNIFICANT S/R LINES

Inspite of what others might say, identifying these S/R Lines is NOT subjective and it is not that difficult as well. To recap, the simple way is idenfity recent day’s fractal or day’s highest/lowest price and then mark and see how many times that ZONE (10-15 pips above and below the level) have been tested and obeyed. If its obeyed more than once, then thats significant. Simple right? This is why I will slowly but steadily, to introduce this analysis to Macfibo because it is important (while I still maintain trading Macfibo based on the utmost basic rule is still profitable)

Below is my current Significant S/R Line. I’ve included touch-counts of the level. The more it is tested and obeyed, the MORE meaningful that price level is (a lot of interest in that price!). Currently EU price right now testing the previous support (tested twice, will it be obeyed the third time?). I suggest to practise this because it is quite essential for Macfibo ver 1.1 and beyond. Any urgent questions, you just Private Message me if you must.

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599

[I]kzzzrrt beeeeep boooop[/I]

Greetings, sufiansaid! I’d like to congratulate you for winning the Best Forex Trading System for the month of March! Your system really is top notch!

As you may know, your victory entitles you to $50 to donate to a charity of your choice in our [B]Golden List of Charities[/B]. Please let us know once you’ve decided where you would like to donate your winnings.

Thanks and congratulations once again!

600

Haha, sufian, no way! :slight_smile: I’m just interested in the whole thing and trying to contribute what I can, besides I’ve only started trading both demo and live last month, so I’m really into all your posts concerning answers to questions which I may have questioned myself, suggestions, analysis, system updates, they have a lot more to say than I do! Thank you for them, I’ll keep on posting since I have noticed aswell that we have quite a difference in time, usually you’re up when I’m still asleep and vice versa:)

601

Hi Sufian,

What are you doing when 5x8 cross and trade is not loosing but even hit 161 fibo? I know that is not happening every day but I saw this setup in backtesting…

I am sorry I believe I am not sure what you mean buddy. Did you mean what do I do when there is a 5x8 recross before hitting 1.618 but ended up hitting 1.618 anyway? Sorry, can you rephrase your question. I am more than happy to help.

I ment this setup


TP was not hit, 5x8 cross above “buy price”
and my question is: When you will close this trade?

another think is that I`m trying to do back test logs for my strategies but as I can see from your answers you have much more information in your backtest log then I have. Can you post a few lines of your journal or back test log?
Did you mean you want me to extract some stuff from my backtest logs? Like sayings, findings? I am sorry that i don’t completely understand your request. Rephrase please.

I`m just wondering what every information you are loging about one single trader (backtest trade)
for instance
DATE TIME, CANDLE SETUP, NEWS RELEASE, POTENCIAL TP etc.

I`m sorry for my english
thanks for understanding

602

congratz sufian!!!

603

congrats sufian!

604

Congrats Sufian - a well deserved win for March!

605

Congratz for the win!

And yes indeed Sufian, the point is to reduce the risk, but not only, as at 127.1 you take out a bit of profit already!

And is not a “must” that in this way you result less profitable:

  • when is a “regular trade” that goes up till 161.8, splitting up the position will TP in 2 different times… but the profit in the end will result the same.

  • when the trade goes up till 127.1 and then reverse, like this you dont lose anything, and even take a bit of profit.

Of course I agree that all we talked of, vary on how we like to trade, but I think you’ll agree with me that trading is a matter of probability, so cutting the risk is the way to be consistent (imho)

606

CryAgony, interesting observations!

To put it into a practical example, let’s say you open a trade of 4 lots of EURUSD.
At 127% fib (25 pips), you take off 2 lots - $48.
At 161% fib (40 pips), you take off the remaining 2 lots - $80.
[B]Total, $128.[/B]

Conversely, lets say you keep the full position.
At 161% fib (40 pips), you take full profit - $160.
[B]Total, $160.[/B]

I haven’t done it with Macfibo, but with my logs of last year’s trades, it always seems that in the end you come out more profitable this way. Taking profit at 127% saves you from a break-even now and again but that happens much too infrequently to justify it for me personally. I’d rather have patience and see it ride out to the end. :slight_smile:

You guys rock, this is a great thread!

607

:29: Friendly and Sweetly. Very Good System.

608

Cyanidez you are right, that’s good point. As I said: It’s just a different approach :smiley: both look pretty solid after all !

609

Congratulation Sufiansaid & Thanks for sharing with us a profitable System.

I have a question.
When it is in a strong trend for 1- 2 days or more and in between price pulls back, 5 might touch 8 but it did not cross over should we re-enter if it goes back to the trend? If yes, how Fib work in this case?
Thanks in advance.

610

Salam brother sufian

nice & simple system , is it bossible to find an indicator which gives alert when cross over happen ???

what is the use of 8sma ??? i noticed that we are just focusing on 5ema&20sma

611

An indicator will not give an alert, on the other hand you may subscribe to a service such as alertfx.com, where you can adjust settings to receive notifications for crosses via email, IM and even SMS. On the other hand, my personal experience with this service was not 100% satisfactory (alerts came a bit too late).

8SMA is used to track the close opportunity for the trade: when 5EMA x 8SMA, you should exit the trade.

Cheers