Macfibo system

Hi there Yaman, what interest me from your statement is what made you think it was a bad signal? That shows you tried to analyse the market. It is ok if you are still in testing phase, cause that’s what you suppose to do. What you must do now is LOG that analysis on why you think it was a bad signal. yes granted using INSTINCTS in trading is not entirely a bad thing, as you said yourself, as long as it is backed up by SOMETHING like logged records, statistics, experience trading the specific signal… because something like that can be your ‘added trading rule’ so in the future you didnt have to GUESS/FOLLOW GUT FEELING… but instead comfortably be very objective about it and say “i am not taking this trade because its A and not B while it is C…etc etc”. I do hope you get what I am trying to say here.

So now, why did you think it was a Bad Signal? I am interested to know.

Here is an article about trading psychology that is worth reading. This is not the ultimate article about trading psychology but it has basic message in it. I’ll extract some of the statements there and I’ll add some of it in relation to trading the Macfibo System.

[I]“If you are not psychologically prepared to handle the stress that comes with trading, chances are that no matter how good your strategy is, you will not be able to execute it properly and will most likely see your account deep in the red”
[/I]

How many times have the following situations happened to you when trading Macfibo? :

[B]You enter a solid signal, few minutes after that a positive 5+ pips gain have turned to -20 or -30 pips though an exit signal in the defined trading exit rule hasn’t been triggered, you panicked or frustrated and exited the trade (Fear)

You entered a trade, your position has gained 23 pips and it is still 14 pips away from your TP, then it started to shrink from 23 pips to 13 pips… you panicked that price might reversed… you exit the trade and cut your profit small (Fear)

You are in a trade, you are in the red of -42 pips and finally an exit signal triggered but you refuse to exit because you feel it could go up to alteast break-even or you checked Macfibo in smaller timeframe that price has hit 261.8 so logically it’s time for the current wave will be exhausted and your current position will move towards your direction (Denial, Hoping, Guessing)[/B]

One massive step you can make in improving your Trading Psychology is [B]GET TO KNOW YOUR SYSTEM[/B]. How? Study it and examine it via thorough critical backtesting. What do I mean by critical backtesting? Though the whole point of backtesting is to see how good the system is BUT more importantly to see HOW BAD can it go. Be very critical and be honest in your backtesting.

Once you’ve studied the system over atleast 200 test trades, I assure you that you have done a massive step towards trading with trading without negative impact of pSychology. Once you backtest a system thoroughly, you will define a trading rule that suits yourself, you might find something that i did not (as share it please) and make it your own trading edge, you’ve gained tons of information such as different types of market conditions etc…

Now from that one, you can trade your well tested system without fear or hesitance. You will trade with objectivity… even in a random sitaution, you cand decide with precision and objectivity. With tradng a well tested system by yourself, you can make grade A trading plan AHEAD OF TIME, so when it happens (a signal) you trade it with ease cause you’ve plan your trades AHEAD OF TIME.

I totally understand it is very very very very very very difficult to trade without fear and hesitancy. String of trade losses doesn’t help either. Sometimes it is not just your pocket that is hurting but also your mind. Trading profitably is possible but it is not easy. It requires hard work from us and if we are lucky, that we only experience below average PAIN along the way. But every successful people, not necessarily in trading, starts with hardship before they start to be successful. I like to use football/soccer as an example everytime I try to advice traders to ‘weather’ the storm… like Alex Ferguson, current football manager for Manchester United… if you just follow him or his football team like 2-3 years ago, you might not believe that behind the 20+ league titles and other tons of trophies he have won for Manchester United, earlier in his days as Man United manager, he almost got sacked by Manchester United board after 6 years of underachievement. But he kept working hard, believed in his own philosophy (well tested trading system) that brought him success in his previous football clubs with some adjustments (adjsuting your trading system according to market situation)… and now he is the one of the best european soccer coaches.

Backtesting Paramaters:

MacFibo entry/exit as posted on Post 1
S/R of previous day as guide for trade or no trade
S/R of previous day as guide if trading for 127.2% or 161.8% TP level

Jan 02, 2012 chart attached (assuming I have the Macfibo drawn correctly)

SELL entry 1.2939

Question, based on the excel sheet you have, Jan 02, 2012 yielded +17, which is approximately the 127.2% level only @ 1.2923

Should it not be our TP is at 161.8% @1.2904, given that the S of previous day is around 1.2900sh?

Thanks!


Btw, sufiansaid, when you said RUN W, and RUN L in your excel sheet, what does that mean again, please?

Also, when there is a re-cross of 5x8 towards our direction, do we “redraw” the Macfibo? or just use the first one drawn, as in the case of Jan 4, 2012. Actually 2 more re-cross up to Jan 6. Should we just ignore them for now?

Thanks for a really wonderful and simple system.


I remember this trade. My point B isn’t the point you put there. I TPed at 1.618.

Will be covered in version 2.1, So ignore it for now.

Salam Sufian bro, I wanted to ask is there any thing to find out whether the price will reach 161 level or retrace back from 127?

My answer could be looking for “the big picture” too much despite what you are looking for, but I’ll say what I think of it.

I do check primarly the market flow, any entry signal against the higher TF mkt flow, is notable as counter-trend, so price could have problems reaching 161.8 - or could do it on longer term

Going deeper in this, higher TF is fundamental: check if any mid/big figure is around, Pivot? Where is the price in term of ADR? Any stochastic divergence against your position on short term? Any divergence on higher TF showing a possible reversal around?

Any important level overlap with 127.1? fibo-extending past swing, do you have any overlap with your macfibo setup?

Another important analysis: What time is it? Where did price move in past session(s)?

I tried to give you a more general picture, giving you tips to get out your personal view and analysis of it, hoping to trigger any reflexion :slight_smile:

I’m sure that giving a specific way of doing it is wrong, as the market is always so different, and it always needs a different approach to see what the chart is trying to show us, so having a wider universal approach can make the difference!

Hope I wasn’t too philosophical and that will be of help :smiley:

A more pragmatic example, GBPUSD H1, I searched up for a valid example :]

Check the noted bearish stoch divergence, and the overlap of the ntoed figure with 127.1 :wink:


Great post on psychology, I’m sure a lot of people can relate to those situations, me included! Hope this shows just how important backtesting is to everyone, its easy to think why bother Sufian has already done it, but everyone needs to do it for themselves so they can really learn and understand it - I’m currently backtesting at the moment - and yeah its hell but its sooooooo important! Just in case there are newbies out there like me that aren’t sure where to get the data, I downloaded metatrader 4 and it goes back a few years on the 1 hour time frame so that should keep you busy for a while, happy backtesting :slight_smile:

This is the most asked question in Macfibo. There are no 100% way to predict whether the signal will hit 1.618 or not, wether it will hit 127.2 and reverse or will break 127.2 and hit 1.618. There are several analysis can be used to define probable situations that price will likely hit 127.2 and reverse. One simple analysis is when [B]127.2 is equal to previous day’s High/Low or weekly’s high/low[/B], I normally will TP it there, not 1.618 because there are times price would obey these levels. But that is just probable result, not predictive.

In the end of the day, it is all about probabilities. Like this year, there is more or less 60% chance that price will hit 161.8 (6 times out of 10 signals etc etc).

There will be some delay in [B]Macfibo version 1.2 release[/B] due to following reasons :

a) I re-read it twice and decide to amend/remove some information that is TOO complicated for current audience
b) I got sick yesterday so slept practically the whole day

I am very super duper sorry for this. I will post it in two-three days. but for now, I need to announce about Significant Support/Resistance Line Analysis and News Candle.
[B]

  1. You just mark previous day’s highest/lowest price and previous week’s highest/lowest price as your S-SR Line. For re-entries, then you can use the more advanced s-SR Line analysis but using the simple S-SR Line works well too.

  2. Just ignore news candle analysis for now because I realized that it might be second nature for me (and other experienced traders I think) to identify it, but it is very subjective to new traders… so disregard any comments or rules on news candle for now. It rarely happens anyway so it is not that a bigger deal anyway.[/B]

Was about to say that. In my backtesting starting Jan 2012 to Apr 2012, of the 98 times it hit 127%, 68 times it went to reach 161% (and sometimes beyond).

Btw, sufiansaid, the excel sheet in Post #1, the parameters used is based on V1.0 criteria right?

Thanks!

Yes no filters except trading session rules, other than that just pure vasic entries.

Usd/Chf just hit the 1.618 :35:

Missed out on EURJPY, after the crossover I saw some indecision and left it.

EURUSD hit 161.8, and going to touch 261% now!

BUT, beware, yesterday’s SUPPORT !!!

Another successful day with the macfibo
Eurusd & UsdChf both hit the 161 where I had my TP. Both carried on so could have been bigger winners.
My GbpUsd touched the 161 4 times before closing for a small loss because of the 5X8 cross. The price then shot back down to the TP again. Oh well.

41 pips for the day so I cant complain

Just a quick update, today was indeed the day for Macfibo, price went to 261 level… but sadly I din’t have the money in my account, I have now re depoisted into my account once again, and I m not eligible for live trading once again.

I won’t repeat the same mistake I did before.
I have $121 into my account now…

I am looking to trade Asia London Session and 2% per trade risk.


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