MartialChartsFX - Thoughts, Charts, and Journey Journal

At the suggestion of ria_rose (Thank you), I’m opening this journal. It won’t be just tracking analysis and trades, but more of my ongoing trading journey. There may be some theorizing based on my understanding of the market.

My Journey So Far

Winter 2010 - Spring 2011:
Came into some extra money and wanted to make it grow. Started researching investment options. Looked into Forex but thought it was too risky based on the potential to lose more than the original investment. Did identify a forex strategies to use for trading but decided to take the stock market route using the forex strategy, which was basically hidden bullish divergence at an area of support.

Summer 2011:
Started swing trading stocks with on Scottrade until Scottrade was absorbed into TDAmeritrade. In stocks all my orders are limit orders and I never use a stop loss. I trade stocks without leverage (even though I have a margin account) so I can wait out the drawdown, and it has generally worked in my favor with the vast majority of my stock trades being closed in profit. Obviously that doesn’t work in high leverage world of forex.

Fall 2020:
Wanting to expand my trading into Options, I jumped into TDAmeritrade’s Options course. After completing the course, I upgraded by TDAmeritrade account to be able to trade options, which I didn’t realize also unlocked the ability to trade forex. That alone caused me to take a second look at forex 9 years later and I do wish that I had started forex back in 2011. I’m still on TDAmeritrade for now until I move over to Charles Schwab later in 2023 due to another merger.

Winter 2020:
I completed the Babypips course, which gave me a ton of info about forex, but still left me unsure about how to find or enter a trade. The course gave me enough info to know better than to pull my stock trading shenanigans in the forex market. I started testing out the Fibonacci retracement method of trading because it resonated with me much more than moving averages.

Spring 2021 - Winter 2021:
I went into the research and experimentation phase where I was trying many different strategies, constantly backtesting strategies, wasting hours on YouTube listening to gurus and their free but very incomplete strategies. I consumed a lot of courses and books trying to find a common thread that all of them agreed on (the actual confluence in trading) and something that would match my personality and could be done repeatedly. Fibonacci survived through this with me. This was obsessed with forex and literally saw charts in dreams.

Winter 2021 - Spring 2022:
This window of time, presented many ‘aha’ moments that lead to additional ‘aha’ moments. I gained a better understanding of market structure that I was able to codify into a rule set. In this time I finally was able to see through the candles and read price action. Supply and Demand came into clear focus as well as smart money concepts. It was at the end of Spring 2022 that I combined supply and demand and SMC within the framework of Fibonacci. I fully documented this methodology for my own future reference, knowing of an impending change in my life and work schedule.

Summer 2022 - Summer 2023:
I received two work promotions in July 2022 and May 2023 to very demanding positions which have impacted my availability to trade. Working 12 hours a day M-F and being on call 24/7, 365 days a year, makes anything other than work a little tough. If you notice that I am more active here on the weekends that is why. My biggest challenge in trading now is managing the remaining 12 hours that I have in a day between family, friends, forex, food, fitness, fun, and sleep.

My Trading Method
I trade Supply & Demand with Fibonacci. It’s more Supply & Demand because I don’t think the Fib should be used in isolation without considering Supply & Demand, unfulfilled imbalance, and the liquidity from pending orders. The supply and demand zones are the areas that I take trades from within the Fibonacci retracement if the correct conditions are in place and the setup aligns with the condition.

1 Like

GBPUSD H4 Potential Buy Setup

Original Analysis Pre-market Sunday 07/16/2023 at 2:45 PM EST:

Setup posted to FB on 07/16/2023 at 4:30 PM EST

As of pre-market Sunday 07/23/2023 3:32 PM EST:

We’ll see how this plays out in the coming trading week.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart

Sunday (pre-market) 07/23/2023 3:57 PM EST:

GBPUSD H4 Buy Setup from 7/16/2023 2:45 PM EST - UPDATE

As of 7/26/2023 8:17 PM EST

We’ll see how far this goes…

GBPUSD H4 Buy Setup from 7/16/2023 2:45 PM EST - Thoughts

As of 7/27/2023 6:56 PM EST

The price action leaving the zone is concerning compared to the price action going into the zone. I’m not sure if the zone will hold, especially price breaks the low of the tweezer bottom.

GBPUSD H4 Buy Setup from 7/16/2023 2:45 PM EST

As of 7/29/2023 4:56 PM EST

Price didn’t violate the tweezer bottom but I’m not sure if USD will cooperate by getting weaker based on the Dollar Index weekly chart.

What I think could happen DXY H4:

This may cause the tweezer bottom to be violated if GBP doesn’t get stronger.
We’ll see what happens next week.

EURAUD H4 7/30/2023 3:06 PM EST

EURUSD H4 7/30/2023 3:07 PM EST

BTCUSD H4 7/30/2023 3:47 PM EST
Possible reject off of supply and drop to 28,748

Just remembered that I called this one out in a FB chat over a month ago.

XAUUSD (Gold) Daily Forecast from June 25, 2023

As of July 30, 2023

EURAUD H4 as of 7/31/2023 7:45 AM EST

EURAUD H4 as of 7/31/2023 1:00 PM EST

EURAUD H4 As of 8/1/2023 6:05 AM EST

BTCUSD H4 as of 8/1/2023 6:11 AM EST
Didn’t reach zone but did reach target at 28,726

EURUSD H4 as of 8/1/2023 6:16 AM EST

DXY H4 as of 8/1/2023 6:17 AM EST

Like EURUSD, not cooperating with the internal price action but may get back on track with the larger moves

Considering EURAUD H4 Complete
As of 8/2/2023 6:10 AM EST

BTCUSD H4 8/2/2023 6:12 AM EST

This ended up wicking but not closing past the zone. I still expect it to hit the price target again.

GBPUSD H4 8/2/2023 6:14 AM EST

The Tweezer Bottom is still a barrier but this pair has started moving sideways. Not inspiring confidence at the moment.

GBPUSD H4 As of 8/2/2023 7:28 PM EST - BUSTED!!!

Failed to resume to the profit objective.

EURUSD H4 8/2/2023 7:31 PM EST - BUSTED!!!