MartialChartsFX - Thoughts, Charts, and Journey Journal

DXY H4 As of 8/2/2023 7:34 PM EST - BUSTED!!!

This still may reverse at the extreme supply zone (not marked)

Note to self: a compound forecast of more than 2 moves is ridiculous.

Weird that the range setup on EURAUD, which I don’t normally analyze, played out more precisely than GBPUSD, EURUSD, and DXY. I knew if I got DXY wrong then EURUSD would be wrong as well.

While GBPUSD and EURUSD are positively correlated, GBPUSD was actually leading EURUSD between the two correlated pairs.

The Best Time To Pet A Tiger Is After It Has A Full Stomach.

The Best Time To Enter A Trade Is After The Institution’s Appetite Is Satisfied By Liquidity.

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NAS100 H4 Potential Short Setup targeting 14,873.70
As of August 12, 2023 2:14 PM EST

BTCUSD H4 Potential Long targeting 30,727
As of August 12, 2023 2:32 PM EST

BTCUSD H4 As of 8/15/2023 9:21 PM EST

NAS100 H4 As of 8/15/2023 9:26 PM EST

NAS100 H4 Setup finished playing out 4 days later.

As of 8/16/2023 6:41 PM

Now that price is in the zone. I’ll wait to see if price breaks out of the range.

BTCUSD H4 As of August 17, 2023 7:36 PM EST - BUSTED!

If I have to get it wrong, I prefer getting it really wrong. No need to feed false hope that the analysis was kind of correct or something else happened. The experimental method used for this obviously didn’t work. The Feds probably didn’t help me out on this one either.

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Can’t win 'em all, unfortunately. However, it could be setting up for a nice buy:

Could be. Crypto is a fickle instrument

CADJPY has formed a rising wedge that terminates at an unmitigated supply zone on the daily chart, expecting a bearish move, but could possibly run liquidity above the supply zone due to the old equal highs (double top) to the left.

I’ll re-evaluate once price reaches the demand zone below, could possibly bounce from or break through that zone, which is why that move is marked with a dashed arrow because I’m uncertain about this zone.

CADJPY Update - Busted

As I suspected might happen, liquidity taken above the EQHs. But the Projected High was reached. Just didn’t take the path to reach that price that I expected.

DXY Weekly Still on track as of 10/01/2023 17:57 EST

GBPAUD H1 10/01/2023 18:38 EST Before

GBPAUD H1 as of 10.02.2023 1818 EST

AUD news busted this GBPAUD setup.


During (still a believer at this point):

After (Busted):

This is interesting…Price turned around at the Projected High.
Mission: Forecast the path with the same precision as the projections

This week I re-started working on running up a small $500 account that I haven’t traded on since February 2023. In fact there has only been 1 trade on this account prior to this week. I had planned on doing this back then but my career demands got in the way of trading. Now that I’m all in on trading, I plan on making this account grow.

February 13, 2023: 1 win 0 loss
Monday 11/27/2023: 3 wins 1 loss
Tuesday 11/28/2023 : 4 wins 1 loss (I over-traded based on my plan and rules)
Wednesday 11/29/2023: 3 wins 0 losses

84.6% win rate on 13 total trades (12 this week). I expect the win rate to drop because I don’t believe this to be sustainable long term.

Some of these are the same setup with multiple entries, such as today’s trade.

Today’s trade was a sell on GBPUSD based on a 5 Minute setup. I made my entry based on the 1 Min and 15 second charts, but I kept my stop SL based on 5 minute structure. I could have reduced the stop loss to 2 pips and been safe in this trade since there was virtually no drawdown on entry.

This screenshot was while the trades were open prior to setting my TPs.

Manually closed 2 positions and left 1 to run. Normal TP would be at 11.8% but I was optimistic and the market crushed optimism so 11.8% was where it stopped before going back to entry. So the last open position was closed when price action showed signs of reversal on the 1 min and 15 second time frames on both GBPUSD and DXY.

How it ended today:

As I write this post, it looks like a second chance at this trade but the time of day is wrong being after 12 PM EST. This is where discipline plays a role in not taking the bait.

While I’m still typing this post, I get to see the hook in the bait. I’m glad that I remained disciplined and vigilant.

Trying to maintain proper risk management and self-discipline are the hardest parts of the process.

I don’t know how far I can run this account up. The last challenge account that I started on Hugo’s Way got deleted when they moved from MT4 to TickTrader, so I’m crossing my fingers that it doesn’t happen that way again.