EURNZD Daily - This pair hit a weekly R level last week and has been falling fast for the last 3 days. It’s currently at a strong S level which it could easily blow through. Price will likely retest this level next week. I see a good long term opportunity whichever direction it decides to go.
GBPAUD Daily - Price has been ranging between two strong S/R levels for a month now and is currently sitting on support:
Looking at the weekly chart, price bounced of a monthly S level in July and with the overall trend being up, could be headed to the 1.865 area, which is another strong monthly SR area.
I posted this 10 days ago along with this Chart:
I wasn’t too far off, it hit 81.590 before dropping like a stone:
Remember this chart?
Seems obvious which direction it’s going. Big money here, right?
SELLERS BEWARE because that could also be what “they” are thinking as well. “They” being the big banks, market Gods, algo systems/programmers…whatever you want to call them.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist but in this business sometimes you need to think that way. I’m not saying don’t sell, but be prepared for some volatility at this level. Be prepared for a price spike while “They” potentially push price way up to get all those SL’s.
If I had read this post a year ago I would be saying “what is this crazy guy talking about?”, but I no longer rule anything out, and this crazy guy just might save all you retail traders a buttload of money.
I hope I’m wrong, but you can’t deny the sheer number of people looking at this level with dollar signs in their eyes.
USDCAD
We are there:
CAD is still going strong. This could be part of the reason CAD is strong today:
U.S. drug company Novavax signs deal to supply 76 million doses of possible COVID-19 vaccine to Canada
NZDJPY 1D - Price broke through a strong R level. Waiting for the retest, but I think we could see the 73.3 area.
Thanks for the info, would you be able to comment what is the validity of resistance/support level? I mean from your first chart (Montly) the support level SR1 is more than 10 years back, can it still be reference?
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Hi @yalee104, you’re very welcome.
SR levels are subjective, you ask 10 people to draw them on the same chart and each chart will look different. I try not to overthink it and just draw out the most obvious levels, 3 or 4 max (top, middle, bottom). If I look too closely I’ll end up with 10-15 levels plotted and that’s counterproductive, you can zoom in to the shorter time frames for that. You also need to keep in mind that these are areas of S/R, not a perfect line that price will respect.
Here’s a better example of SR areas, or zones that price has respected throughout the years:
As you can see price continued up through my original predicted area, but now appears to be headed down again to test it:
And yes, I use the full view on the monthly chart, right back to the beginning because as you can see these areas do matter, and make perfect sense to me. I use these levels as sort of a road map to where I think price might be headed next. But, this takes a lot of patience and as you can see, price can still turn back around to test these levels over and over, so it takes a lot of practice and patience. I also find it helpful to do the same analysis on the weekly and daily charts, but I only see those lines on the weekly and daily view so that I don’t have a hundred lines showing all at once.
I hope this helps. Good luck!
EDIT
One thing I forgot to mention, when doing SR levels on higher time frames I like to switch to a line chart, this way I’m ignoring the wicks (highs and lows), and using the close of each month:
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USDJPY 4H - This pair is starting to resemble a slice of pizza (it’s almost lunchtime here), and it’s been flirting with a major SR level (blue line). Delicious!
Weekly chart shows that it’s having trouble staying below this strong support level but the long term trend is down, so I’ll have my short and long fingers ready for a break to either side:
AUDCAD Weekly - Strong bounce off a strong weekly R level:
Let’s see what it does at the 0.931 monthly S (if it gets there, of course).
Price is ranging on the 4H:
AUDCHF Weekly - This pair spent most of its life above the 0.67 level, until COVID hit. Like most pairs it has pretty well recovered, except it can’t seem to get its head back above that level:
Daily chart shows it’s been tested several times. My guess is that it will slowly continue downward:
AUDJPY 4H - Is in an upward channel and has broken a strong monthly SR level (blue line).
Monthly view - Currently retesting this level. If this is not a fake break then there’s an even stronger level up around 88.200.
CADJPY 4H - This pair has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is typically bearish, and has tested the 81.4 level several times (you can see this on the daily chart as well):
This lines up with the weekly chart, which is at a strong SR level and the upper end of a descending channel. If it breaks through these resistance areas then my next weekly level is around 84.2. If this level is rejected again then we’ll see a drop.
EURGBP 4H - Short order placed. I’m expecting a correction here:
On the weekly chart price has just hit a major resistance area. It’s been hangin’ there for a few weeks now, so we’ll see what plays out long term:
Thank goodness for short orders! I’m still expecting a correction, this just means there’s more more to be had.
NZDCAD 4H - This pair might be forming a double top.
The weekly chart is showing a long-term channel down, which hit support in March and is now at resistance. We’ll see if it continues this pattern or if it’s decided to change direction.
