Maximum profit/lose is 100/27

Not yet 1.6527 :smiley:

It appears to be in consolidation now

Prices will continue to S2.

GBPUSD still trying to break the double bottom, if successful, would easily pass S1.

J� era tempo de sorrir. Gra�as GBPUSD. :slight_smile:

What will we do with the EURUSD? We will let prices fall through supertrend and back up. When prices go down and back up then there is the possibility CCI will change color to red.

EURUSD is still in the top area and we hope that this pair fall to the bottom. At least to the S!.

hello master joe…
do u have indikator for gj?
i am like play the pair that fast movement…
if play eu, always get little profit…
thx…

I dont know Joe alot of pips are being left on the table

Let us see a valid signal from 2 different time frame of GBPUSD pair. It is useful to know the right place to enter the market.

Results obtained from both apparently not too different.

This indicator can be used in all pairs, but if you are a beginner then I suggest to choose the pair GBPUSD, USDJPY or EURUSD. Once you can master this indicator to trade then you can use another pair.

Exercise to consistently get 20 pips per day is much better than 100 pips to pursue uncertain.

Please follow all links I sent in your pm.

Arrfggg,

Just found out why my EA is inconsistent with my indicators. Because this stupid MT4 calculates indicators etc. from present to past, indicators might now the future. Since an EA is real-time it obviously does know nothing about the future.

Dear Joe100,

first of all thank you very very much for your efforts and especially for your openness in sharing what surely seems to be a very promising system. I am glad that there are also people like you, around in bp, that believe in the possibility of “systematic trading” instead of just “discretionary methods” that are somehow quite difficult to “control” “test” and “measure”.

I belong to the category of “systematic traders”, who believe that, with the needed patience and a quite “scientific methodology” it is possible to beat the markets (in spite of all), and therefore develop, test, optimize and statistically analyze systems and performance. And yours seems a nice candidate, although I will surely look for more details about the mechanisms behind the nice indicators you’ve brought here (quite powerful, and new to me).

Trying to formalize very precisely your rules, and having a look to past data, I have two questions, if you’re so patient and kind to answer.

First: in post #145 you replied to kassydee1,

.

I have some problem in understanding. If we are in a strong trend, then it is well possible that the prices won’t retrace back to the middle of the previous range. Is this retracement back that you’re talking about? Or does it means that, if prices have already retraced below/above the previous bar mid-point, you set a stop-buy/stop-loss conditional order to be filled only when this level is reached again? So, in other words, which is the real entry rule you’re applying? Is it a bit flexible, and does not affect performance so much? Finally: the stop loss rule you’re presenting in this post is not exactely the 27-pips one. Is this also a quite flexible parameter?

Second: please look at the attached chart. (And please check that my self-made template, with all the indicators fetched with a bit of “investigation” LOL LOL!, is correct). You may notice that, for instance in the night between 19 and 20 August, and in the morning of the 20th, the supertrend is green, the kinoCCI is green, and you have a lot of crosses in the EMA’s. Unless you do not adopt some other protective “Trade management rule” (like conditional entry orders), I fear that the “Directional Device” of your system, alone, would have caused you a series of very unpleasant whipsaws: long everytime the EMA crossed… I have printed the “complete version” of the system out, with all the other original indicators, just to show that, in such a situation, unfortunately nor RSI, nor AC, nor MACD would have probably “saved” you.

How do you manage such situations? What do you think of, for instance, applying a filter so that, in spite of the COLOR of the supertrend, you do not catch any signal if the line is FLAT?

Please understand that this is no criticism but just the desire of understanding, and hopefully helping somebody else with these observations. You’re great, man! And maybe, thanks to your long experience, you already noticed that either these situations are really rare or not harmful. Or simply you found the way of managing and avoiding them. Actually this boils down to the usual problem of trend-following systems in ranging market conditions. The fact that the supertrend indicator is flattening down might be a quite elegant way for recognizing them.

Perhaps I’ll come back with something more, e.g. on the quite hard delay (as you noticed for AUDJPY) in catching the trend. And sometimes late is worst than never, we know! LOL

Bye

Fabio


Hi Fabio,

I think the retrace to halve the candle was built in by Joe to avoid opening a position when the price has drifted to far away, which would make making a profit harder. I don’t think this rule is carved in stone and you should just be sure to get a descent price.

As for you second question, you should only trade if the supertrend changed color and the other two indicators are pointing in the right direction. In other words, when ST is green and the EMA turn green and CCI is green, you go long (given that you are not at the top of the price range) then when the EMA turn red and green again after a while and the other indicators stayed green during this period you do nothing.

Did I got that right Joe?

Thank you, Coen, for the nice and kind answer.

(BTW: you are from Netherlands, isn’t it? :)).

Concerning the second problem, I realize just now how small my chart came out to be, as an attachment. The concept of holding on, irrelevant of what further EMA crossover tells you, was already very clear to me. Looking again at the “bad time” of 19-20 Aug, now, I realize that probably, there, I would have been stopped out in the long trade generated by the first EMA cross / green arrow. This would have anyway been compensated by a very early long entry on the third EMAcross. I say “probably” and am not so precise because it would be necessary calculating the stop level at that point in the past and also the TP levels/pivots. I have an indicator that traces pivots also in the past, but because it disturbs me a lot in the visualization of other indicators (when it is too much… it is!) I didn’t attach it too on the chart.

Concerning the first issue (entry points) of course nothing is graved in stones. When you start coding (as I’m making as soon as I am ready with this) somehow it becomes graved. And my (not too short) experience is that such small details really make a difference in trading systems development (…and sometimes also in lines of mql to be written! LOL). Therefore an “expert opinion” by Joe, who really has to have experimented with it a lot, would have been useful.

But, nice friends, I am really convinced that there is a lot within this strategy. So: let me start working! :smiley:

Bye

Fabio

Yes it is from the Netherlands indeed, how did you know? :slight_smile:

So you are programming this system as well? I have built an EA as well based on Joe’s system, but I find it hard to get a proper exit strategy. Backtesting the system based on an exit where the EMA changes side or all three indicators do so, does not improve the results I get with manually executing the system and thus makes no sense.

This means that I am very much interested in with what exit you come up. :slight_smile:

Keep me posted.

Hi Coen (and all the others, of course!),

well I used to be the key account manager of two big clients, one in Deventer and the other in Delft, so I was quite often in your Country. With my German I became even able to understand something of your nice (but quite cruel-sounding! LOL) language.

Yes, I’m coding too, and will be glad exchanging ideas, suggestions, optimization and backtesting results. About the end result (the program), well, let’s see. If it’s too bad I will just collect blames. If it’s too good, there could be other problems… you know (LOL!). I think that the suggestions also for “manual traders” coming out of this work can be a nice help for all the serious ones…

I don’t see any problems with exits, actually. Why don’t you use pivots? And if you are in a losing position, there would be the stop loss (trailed to break-even quite soon).

I see quite a lot of problems with entries and other details, instead. Attached you find a zipped power point (resolution is surely better than attached pictures) containing the analysis I was making in formalizing the algorithm. It is full of comments, observations, doubts and questions (to myself, first of all). When you start coding, you notice all the possible details. I hope that the exercise of reading and thinking about will produce a deepening in the understanding of the system, more than answers for me. Joe, if you are so patient to look inside, it would be great for all, I think. It’s a short period in recent EURUSD data.

So, over for now. Have a peaceful night, and a wonderful day tomorrow!

Bye

Fabio

TradingDetails.zip (101 KB)

Hello Fabio, you are very polite, highly educated and most importantly very friendly. I am amazed at your ability to use powerpoint. I will try to address your questions.

First, when there is a valid signal (supertrend changed from red to green) then consider a movement of new open candle (follow the movements in 5m tf ). In normal conditions candle will try to reach the middle of previous candle and we can open long positions after prices began pointing upwards( in 5m).

In a trending condition after positive news, then immediately take the long position without having to wait for a reversal.

If the candle is too short then put SL 5 pips below supertrend, if too long, then place the SL 5 pips below the candle where the green arrow appears.

Second, I always consider the top / bottom area. If supertrend change color from red to green, then I am happy because sooner or later I will get a chance to open a long position. I repeat once again, open the long position in the bottom after a valid signal and not long in the top.

I’ve noticed and I’m pretty sure if EA can help us get pips a much larger (not like me who only got 38% of amount that should have) so I’m trying to find a way to not get the EA caught off all positions (including the purchase several times in the top area) and it seems I’ve got the answer. Unfortunately I can not write EA.

Happy trading

Hi Joe,

Please send me your indicators and templates. Thanks :stuck_out_tongue:

Wonderful post Joe, thank-you very much. I have everything set up other then the green and red arrows. I was wondering where/how can I add them. Thank-you once again my friend.

Hallo Joe,
thank you very much for your kind and deep reply, and also for the compliments (:o make me becoming reddish: not necessary!).

Now it is much clearer about the entries: the 5 min tf was a missing piece of the puzzle. I checked some of the entries of this zone we are analyzing. It would not have worked always in the “automatic way”. Of course for you nice people trading it manually can be much easier, because you “see” where price is going tick by tick and apply your “human judgment” (that is immensely better than computer monkey-like order-execution trading. But it has some other advantage, on the other hand. E.g.: computers do not need to sleep and don’t have feelings like fear or greed, LOL!).

I have come to a sort of “Solomon decision” in this respect. The first version of my code will enter AT MARKET when a signal appears. Let’s see whether this will cause only a minor decrease in profitability or big problems… It is anyway a sort of “average” between starting after a small retracement or waiting for a little more momentum and follow the strong trend…

Thanks also for the (repeated) advice about top and bottom areas. Again: it is quite obvious for you wise and good “human trader”. It is a bit more complicate to explain it to a computer. Nevertheless I have noticed by visual inspection of some screens in the past that usually it is not so frequent getting long signals when close to the top or vice-versa (meaning that most of the times you’re already IN a position, so you’re simply ignoring further signals). Besides that, the few ones I noticed would have been stopped out at break-even by the trailed STOP LOSS. Let’s see: I never rely too much on my visual observations, because they are episodic. I can look at very few data. The real “proof” comes only by backtesting huge historical series, were you can then draw some statistically sound conclusion.

I notice with [B]big interest[/B] your highlighting of the [B]sideways[/B] conditions. Again: believe me. Teaching a computer being careful in the “sideways” times (that are quite clear for you - even for a dummy like me :D) is [B]very difficult[/B], and probably is half the way to the “holy grail”. So, I suppose you would have staid out of the market in this phase, isn’t it? Can we find a simple pattern to be told a computer (but also to all of us)? For instance: "if the supertrend is flat, do not take any signals before there is a color switch (i.e. if the flat area starts with green do not take signals until it becomes red - and eventually green again -)? Or maybe the mechanisms of the trading system as you developed it are robust enough to avoid big losses also in such cases. This seems to be true for instance in my slide n.3 of the previous post.

Finally:

I’ve noticed and I’m pretty sure if EA can help us get pips a much larger (not like me who only got 38% of amount that should have) so I’m trying to find a way to not get the EA caught off all positions (including the purchase several times in the top area) and it seems I’ve got the answer. Unfortunately I can not write EA.

It is not very clear what you mean here. I don’t understand the 38% figure. Does it mean that, due to your working schedule, you get only 38% of the potential signals? Well, looking at the record of your successes you presented in the thread, this seems to be [B]more than enough for a living[/B]! LOL! But, letting jokes apart. This could be an interesting issue. Apparently this 38% of signals are the “good ones” because you report an 80% accuracy (8 out of 10). It is possible that the market has some behaviour pattern that is hard to recognize, and develops good moves (catched by the combination of indicators you gave us) especially during [I]your trading time[/I]. Would it be possible to know when you trade, normally (with a GMT reference, of course)? This could be a nice filter, perhaps.

For the EA story look at your PM.

Over, for now! A wonderful day to all, here!

Bye

Fabio