MP,
Do you ever use dailyfx for sentiment, etc…?
Or is this redundancy for your amazing financial prowess?
Z
this is just something I have noticed and was hoping you would take a look for confirmation. It concerns the market, but is something I noticed and investigated… (did my homework) and found something that may be worthy of sharing.
Sorry if I have offended you in any way???
chubs
[B]
WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED PEOPLES ?[/B]
[B]maybe we ought to talk about this, cause wasnt really a bad day at all !
mp
[/B]
Yeah was not that bad at all-but I guess all the gurus were “advising” to short e/u-and many took it to heart 
Yes Please lets talk about it.
I personally, as I related in an earlier post, was merrily trading support and resistance on the e/u from about 7:30 to 9:15 or so. Winning my usual easy trades when all hell broke loose. I was in a couple of short trades when boom shocka locka the bulls broke loose about 9:20 or so trampling every resistance line in its way. I at the time had no idea what was going on so I started looking around a bit and I realized that some important news was to be released at 10:00. Being the newb that I am I didn’t really know what to do or what the price was going to do. I have up to today ignored the news and its short term consequences because I haven’t been burned. Well today I margin called on my two shorts because I couldn’t hang until the 4hr retracement. So it is a good day to LEARN!
A valuable thing that I learned today is that every morning I need to be aware of the impending news releases. It needs to become a part of my daily regimen. With a bit of searching it looks like forexfactory (thanks johnnycanoe) has quite the comprehensive calendar to keep track of when these NR are coming down the pike.
Anyway I’m going to spend the next hour trying to understand what you (see post #467)have been saying over and over about news and its effects on short term price as it relates to todays trades. Obviously I need to understand it as it can be profitable for more than just the banks (and MP).
first off sandpiper, WHAT TIME DOES THE NYSE OPEN ?
and you pahdnah tex, the gurus figured (and so did everyone else because see how they pushed the price up ---- they didnt do a thing all nite long waiting for the news, and then they pushed it like mad
“normally” they will push the price UP to prepare for the “short” your guru’s anticipated, and of course i beleived exactly the same thing ---- then the news came out and OMG, it was GOOD (more or less anyway, but way better than bad)
now all the traders were in a quandry, as trading stopped and the research depts came running in to where the desk traders were, probably screamed “GOOD NEWS”, and the shorts went the way of the dark ages !
now i was fooled in that i figured we would run up the price, then short it, which actually DID happen — only problem being SHORT was not to be the direction of the day, and i kept adding long positions all day long (at least till i left at 2:30, when i just did a few “hail marys”, set a couple of tp’s and slammed the door shut, leaving slink with the phones and the work station)
from what i can see, she did an admirable job, “ferreting” out all the proper information and trades !
mp
I see ma pahdnah MP (You have a deep & colorful closet full of these words :)) Well the whole world was dying waiting for the E/U to break the 1.2700 mark. In fact I was going to go short too as all my indicators were pointing for the downturn to get uglier-however there I did not short at 1.2715 for 2 reasons:
- The price was already licking the bottom of the SHI (:eek:)
- The RSI was practically dead at 18-19 when I entered the market.
SO guess what I longed at 1.2715 and put the s/l at 1.2735. After that I guess things got nastier when the pair touched 1.2780-90. At that time I shorted one lot and put the t/p at 1.2706 (:D)- that was a bad trade but I just got lucky. And I am wondering what the heck!! I was really perplexed yesterday at this behavior…what you just said about the banks raising the bar just before the bad news hit helps understand what happened. Yup I agree-they had hoped to make a killing but then the news turned out to be better than worst.
Sandpipper-let me humbly present my opinion: please dont try to beat the news. anything could happen and the risk of something dramatic happening and putting one in a very ugly spot is possible. I cannot trade the morning session, my playground is just between 6 pm and 9 pm. But If I could I will never trade when the news will be in (major ones at least).
Just an opinion.
t
Here is what happened to me:
I noticed that the market was not stagnant like normal after 9:00 so I was trading away. Won and loss a few not too bad. I stopped trading around 9:30 when the rise began… the news hit, stuff started rising, and placed some retrace Sell stops. (Note I did not look at the forest to realize the H4 and the daily was on the bottom side of the SHI)
The GPDUSD Sell stop got triggered pretty early and promptly reversed to S/L.
My UJ and EU finally hit on the way down, as it should have. The action looked to be halted but I did not get out, I thought we were just in a little break to further retrace.
I started sniping away, made a couple bux, got ****y and put more money on the plate. I had a EU buy, that promptly, reversed and loss 20 pips of a large lot size (for my account). Then here is where the stupidy started…I decided ok, the continuation down must be starting, let me add somemore to my EU. 5 minutes later it started running up and loss 80 pips on a big lot size.
Voila marked went back up and profits vanished. Of course thought we hit a top and opened GU short (was it the r3?)…Price went up to the next level…
So here were my list of mistakes:
- Trading based on news. I should have just let the market be.
- 5-xing down on winner
- Letting a loser run
- Thinking I could “win” back lost pips.
- Not looking at the forest…Only the trees…
- Allowing myself to get greedy, so much that I ended up loosing half my account.
I am back to the drawing board. I have to stop the insanity and learn to control myself. If I can show up for the next week or two, I will reenter live.
Thanks for the advice, its ALWAYS welcome. I don’t think I will be trading the news anytime soon…but what MP says (post 467) make sense and I can see how it could be profitable. Mp also says a couple of posts back that the news release today pretty much caught everyone by surprise the banks included. So the banks anticipatory moves of raising the USD in anticipation of bad news did not pan out. At the moment the GOOD news came out there was a few minutes of hesitation as everybody processed the info and then the bulls where back charging as oppose to the expected bearish stampede. Apparently THIS WAS AN ANOMALY and happens very rarely. Keyword apparently.
Bad day to track my first News Release I guess.
youre a better man than i, Gungha Dinn ---- i had a hard enough time with just eurusd — the thought of doing 3 currencies, during news, all running hither and yon would have shivered my timbers !
BUT THEN !
twas a bad day for good news, which the good old boys thought would be the same old bad !
now let us see if the pattern holds and whether or not the positive trend holds for 2.5 days, since we waiting for friday (which means the price SHOULD continue up to prepare for shorting (on monday ?), since we know the news will be bad !
of course, weve been through that once already this week – LOL
now the mcg’s are over and i wish to shiver me timbers also
till tomorrow
mp
And although I am a good actor, I am not being Anakin Skywalker. The study about the ending just made me humbler. Anyway, have a nice relaxed day.
If by “better” you mean more “foolish”, then yes it must be true :).
BTW, I was listening to an interview of yours yesterday, from 2007 I think, and heard you speak of trading one currency at a time. I shall take this lesson as a learning experience, calm down my appetite to jump into this venture, and only trade EURUSD.
I do not think going back to demo has as much utility as I first thought, so I am going to continue with my account. I need to reign in my psyche, and no amount of fake money will do that. If i need to fund it shortly, so be it. In my adult life I have never had an inexpensive “hobby”, why should this one be any different.
I am going to try to relate this to a couple of my other hobbies:
[B]Golf[/B]…The harder you swing, the shorter the ball flys.
[B]Reefkeeping[/B] (Saltwater Fish tanks with corals)…only bad things happen fast.
[B]Motorcycles[/B]…75%+ of the accidents involving motorcycles involve riders that did not have proper training.
[B]Woodworking.[/B]…Lose focus for a second and you can cut off one of your digits. Ask my grandfather, and my dad
[B]
YUP ![/B]
[B]the absolute wonder of human progress is that after 30 or 40 attempts at knocking ones head against a concrete wall, one discovers aspirin [/B]!
FREEBEE OF THE MONTH
Currency Trader Magazine : Current Issue
its our magazine, delivered right to your lap ---- enjoy
mp
MP gives interviews :eek: How may I lay my ears on one?
CREEPS !
mp
thanks to husky i gat the interview mp3
INSTALL the DSS over the accum/dist indicator in ONE panel and watch what happens when the lines cross.
btw, i use ONLY the main line and not the number “8” signal line, although you may try it and see if it suits your style.
that means the RED line is omitted in my chart.
mp
hey mp great thread you got going on here.
must admit, I’m pretty much a noob so far at this trading stuff, but you’re LRC ‘system’ has been doing wonders for me already. That’s when you know you’re system is good,… when a noob can pick it up quickly!
but just a little question of concern here,
in MT4, are the LRCs dynamic or static? I’ve seen my LRCs shift according to the trend in some of my charts.
After getting caught off guard by a “major” news release a couple of days ago, I have been keeping my orbs open for what is coming down the turnpike. Apparently the USD news release of a couple of days ago caught everybody off guard including the banks so I wasn’t exactly the best NR to learn off of.
So I wake up this morning and realize that USD has 3 news releases set for 8:30
So I watch the G/U as the eruo has its own news releases which would make things a bit complicated. Well low and behold the banks had been running the price up overnight and in fact really spiked the price the half hour before the actual release. So I thinks to myself…Self have you not been instructed for this exact situation have you not been given the roadmap into the future.
So I watch thinking I know what is going to happen.
Lo and behold wonder of wonders the road map was right spot ding dangity on target.
Now of course I didn’t play it exactly right, being the newb that I am, but it was still real profitable. It sure beats the feeling of the other day when the NR caught me off guard.
MP thanks for the roadmap for NRs.