if youve got the DSS layed in over the ACCUM/DIST, and you get a cross, watch and see !
if the DSS is heading UP, but the accum/dist is heading DOWN, what youve got is a temporary retracement ---- the TREND is where the DSS points, so when the retrace reaches support, BACK UP is where the price is heading !
mp
its a WONDERFUL thread, the cats meow, better than sliced bread, able to leap tall buildings in a single bound and the law man on a silver palomino, loading his silver bullets while shouting “hi yo silver — awaaaaaaaaaay !”
its also pretty good !
all of the channels are dynamic, although one will not see it until support and resistance has changed, which usually translates into NO CHANGE on timeframes higher than 15 minutes until the following day, when they re-adjust to anything new — during normal trading, you will see the price break the channel and the channel WILL NOT respond to that change till the next day.
during trading on the shorter timeframes, for you scalpers, the TOP lrc sets your “expected” tp point as being the highest resistance you “should” encounter — obviously, if that resistance changes, the channel will change with it, which means you look to the bols for your resistance, or keep moving up one timeframe as price continues up, trying to find where major resistance lives
mp
if anyone was trading EU today, its easy to understand any confusion ---- in hind site one can see the price was simply dropping slowly by having two rallies that made lower highs and lower lows, which is (of course) a classic downtrend !
it wouldnt make a lot of sense to me, if tomorrows NFP is gonna be bad (or did EVERYONE just get a job this afternoon ?), for the currency to continue to drop all nite, so im looking for an upside move to get the price higher, allowing the shorts to have a field day.
anyway, theres a chart enclosed for those who not only trade naked, but use no charts at all !
i really have to stop taking those meds !
mp
This was my first open to close winning day…Did not catch the big moves, and one of my biggest losers only lost because it did not reach my t/p by 4 pips and promptly fell. As for the news play, I was on my way to work at 7:15 when stuff started dropping. Based on the earlier move I had assumeed the news was gonig to be good for US, but d
My gain was 5.8%, not something to make me run out and by that “B” on the front of the car, but hopefully its a bit of foreshadowing…
BTW, I am starting to really like the ADX/DSS thing…
It looks like he EU M15 (520pm EST) may be looking for a breakout in favor of the bulls. Some confirmation from MACD and the current “Pennant” on the lines with this…What do yo u think?
I was going to throw a buy stop in around 2830, but I am too scared to make a big play against the trend. I want this to remain an up day for me 
congrats on the good day of trading…now just repeat ad infinitum.
[I]I was recently on a tour of Latin America, and the only regret I have was that I didn’t study Latin harder in school so I could converse with those people.
Dan Quayle[/I]
Hey Sandpiper,
I saw your reply before you edited it. The reason why I put my T/P at 2821, was because I thought there was going to be a break out and there was a good amount of divergence. This would be a trade that I watched and if the move ran out of steam (Which it obviously did). This goes to prove I have no clue…Which I already knew
Even though it tends to give me a headache when playing it, gonna talk about the LRC and the CABLE for a few seconds.
BAD news was released and by golly, it dropped for a little bit and then proceeded to go right back UP again.
now we got analysts “speculating” about WHY this may have happened, and while i personally find that all well and good, i simply point to the LRC and smile !
from the messy enclosed (a 20 day/H4) notice that the currency was in a very decent upside run, had WELL PASSED THE MIDPOINT, and just appears to want to hit the topside, where I imagine it will (as the analysts will say) “react” to the bad news and DROP !
While i cant and wont get into “fundamentals” vs “technicals” here and now, have you ever before WONDERED why BAD news made a currency go UP ???
here in living color, with 8X10 glossies with the circles and arrows, sitting on the group W bench, you will find one of lifes sweet mysteries explained !
one note — the last high back a few days DIDNT manage to hit the top band and with that in mind, im thinking it wont happen on this run either, so im watching for a turnaround, perhaps tonight when the kids from london hit the streets !
While i would love to maintain the mantle of some “smart” trader, I’m really peeking at the DSS which is beginning to turn down, and so will take my cues for the overnite trade from the midnite candle on the H4 tonite.
This be the reason i like the LRC so much, cause it works !
hugs
mp
HEY M,
How can I get the DSS and the A/D layed on the same window? Can ya guide me?
Thanks
Ok, when I dropped the AD on DSS I added a level 1 and that put the thing on my DSS …did I do it right?
we went thru this constructing the macd divergence thingie — were you smoking in the boys room during class ?
someone tell him how please so i can trade
thnx
mp
what is a “level 1” ?
MP, I need your opinion on something that won me about 100pips since last night.
We all (newbs) have been taught that trading the news is risky. Taking this into consideration I try not to forecast the news other than maybe look at the “Rand McNally” map 1/2 hour before the release. But last night I was thinking of ways to play the oscillating nature of the market in respect to scheduled major number releases and had some success.
Here was my theory…Around 9pm EST, there is usually very low volatility. Things are pretty calm and settled in until the Euro guys wake up. We can also summize that if there is a major scheduled numbers release the market will make a move up or down in the opposite direction of the release, then slingshot in the opposite direction. There are counter examples like your cable post or EU on Tuesday/Wed, but eventually price (should) correct itself.
So what I did last night was this: At around 9pm is opened both a buy and a sell for 30 pips with no S/L. This was not a hedge because I expected both to be profitable.
The basis of this trade was that with 90% confidence, we know that if the news was good for $ the EU would go up before the release and shoot down after. Same goes if the news was bad for the dollar, the EU would shoot down before the release and shoot up after.
When I woke up this morning and checked my trades around 6:30 both trades had won :), so since it was still 2 hours before the 8:30 news, volatility was low, and no other major Euro numbers coming out, I decided to play it again this time with 20 pips. Within a 1/2 hour, the buy hit. My sell hit after the news.
The interesting thing with todays news action was that the EU did not fall before the news as it should have. So it seems the “powers that be” decided to make a downturn fake about 5 minutes after the release. This hit my Sell, then the market has now reversed back high.
Was I just lucky last night and this is fundamentally a flawed trading method?
Thanks
Dale
[B]THOSE are the major points to watch, but entering around 8 - 9PM is a good time as your trade should be resolved, even if it takes overnite !
good trading
mp[/B]
Thanks for the hints MP, I am glad to see I am not crazy as a loon. (Or if I am, at least I am in good company)
As for your fund trade with 5 pips, this is exactly a trading style that I am trying to build. I was looking at 10 pips, instead of 5, with double lots. I did not see much risk difference with the two pip sizes in my mechanical, non channel method. (read: Basic backtested EA) Right now there are some gotcha’s as it seems like there are definitely points in the past that caused a margin call in back testing. I am/was struggling to find the optimal time to open the trades. Your reversal points and channel considerations are something that I had not put together (where is that aspirin). I now have a new project over the weekend
The one thing I wanted to do was to add a hedge strategy to the system in order to assure a catastrophic drawdown is not seen. Right now my Hedge logic works ok as long as the market trends for a little while after the hedge opens, but if the hedge happens to open right at a market reversal it could mean double trouble for me.
Back to the reversals, I assume you play the 1:45am, 3:15, 6, 730am, and 10am reversals.
[B]enjoy and trade well
mp[/B]
Congrats on a good trade-
Now if I trade against the trend, I usually take my t/p at 5 pips- I double the lots. I am a little nervous trading against the 4h and d1 trends-My 20-30 t/ps are reserved for the d1 +4h trends.
Nothing spectacular but has kept me off harm’s way.
the normal reversal times should give you a 23% fib retrace — figure if thats more or less than 5 pips, although i dont think you will lose with that figure.
the noon reversal should give you more, BUT not if the trend momentum is strong, where you will NOT get a real reversal, so take care on a first day, HIGH momentum trend !
mp
Hmm…to be honest MP, I dont use the fibs-I guess that makes me fall prey to try and “curve fit” the market-always a stumble for me. I believe in pure play indicator based research on what is really happening and will/can it lead me to my target.
Speaking of which it brings me to a point I have been meaning to ask you from some days-I have read through this forum and many systems and expert theories. I have found that many (most?) people are aiming at large pips (100+)…I want to ask if I am doing anything wrong with my 20 pip song-I have achieved this every day out of last 5-6 weeks barring a day or two. Will I just remain marginalized because I dont play for the long haul? How about if I double,triple my lot sizes?
I guess 20 pips is lower risk than say wanting to get 50 pips?
What do you think?
T
enjoy and trade well
mp
lol. no I dont use BB either-
and an observation-not all Texans are long neck drinkers-some prefer whiskey and I do know quite a few (count me) who also “consume” the nor’ eastern sam adams 
In fact I once had a homey who brewed for them
thanks for the [B][U]perspective & direction[/U][/B]
ps# i meant fibs are nt really indicators in the strict sense, right? I know there are fanatics outside of this thread who are discretionary and trade based on what they feel is “right”??I mean fibs tend to “predict” the market–like it will retrace 23% ??
I mean…well I mean nothing serious–it is just that it is Friday and the week was good.
T
