My article on trading a NZD/JPY long-term reversal to the downside

Trading Discussion
186

Have you been trading GBP/NZD lately?

I did a short scalp on it and got some good profits on my demo, but nothing serious on live lol

I’m thinking of going short on it live (swing) since the H4 timeframe shows overbought conditions on RSI & Stochastic, and it reached a resistance level near 2.23 which hasn’t been reached since 2011, and it bounced off it both times

do you think it’s headed towards a downturn?

I’ll be going in 0.1 - 0.5 lots on this one (i usually do micro up to 0.05). Entry at 2.225, SL at 2.24 and TP at 2.160 (1:5 RR ratio)

There seems to be no news for NZD coming up soon until Thursday, but some important GBP ones though…

1003×437

187

Hey Zaidz, that seems like a good trading set-up; did you watch my latest video on this pair?

188

Nice video, so you mean the pair will continue to shoot up (inverted head & shoulders reference) ??

I just noticed the GBP CPI news tomorrow could mean that it will, and my SL is at 2.245 which isn’t too far from its current position :frowning:

I’m risking 3% of my account, but the reward of 5x is worth it I guess, already placed my order :frowning:

189

Good morning! We are back above 2.23, tentatively… I am staying out until the FOMC rate decision and press conference will be over… Hopefully your stop will be safe, for now…

Screenshot_2015-06-16-07-13-57.jpg394×700 35.1 KB

190

I see that the pair has broken the 2.24 level overnight…so you got stopped out… It does not look like shorting this pair will make you money for now, my friend… Why not short another Kiwi pair, like NZD/USD?

191

I feel traumatized I just lost $180 on a single trade on a lite account

Regarding the NZD/USD pair, short it?! I was thinking of going long, I think I got this whole thing mixed up

192

Well, I know that you turn small intra-day movements, but the overall Kiwi trend is bearish, so it is

up to you how you interpret trading counter-trend, of course, it could really work in your favour on

corrections, but you cannot deny that we are at a tenth consecutive green candle on the weekly chart

for the GBP/NZD and we are approaching 3,500 pips to the upside, so it is hard to discount as a ‘correction’

… this is definitely trending to the upside. . .

How you trade this counter-trend is up to your trading plan , etc. NZD/USD makes sense to the downside,

but today is the FOMC rate decision (7pm, GMT), so I would not touch any USD pair with a barge-pole

until the announcement is made, and until after the Yellen press conference!!

Happy trading, and good luck…

193

it just hit the 2.27 mark, this pair is unbelievable… (perhaps because of the GBP news), I wonder when this long move will end…

194

I believe it is now reaching its peak… and the downward spiral might be near… because the H4 timeframe RSI indicator finally shows the line near the 100 mark (Stochastic is still near 100 as before), whereas previously the RSI was at the 70 mark.

I will keep watching though and wish I had entered at this point… :frowning:

Edit: or I could be wrong and the Carney/Forbes speech gives it yet another upward push

195

Hey, there will always be an opportunity…

I bombed my account from £830 to under £70 and since Christmas I rebuilt it SLOWLY…

now it is up to £124, in six months… that is about 60% up … losing money is so much easier,

would you not agree?

196

I agree, I guess I’ll take it step by step from now

PS. GBP/NZD down by 100 pips already, lets see how it goes after the NZD GDP news in a few hours

197

Agreed!! The news from the Fed has not moved the markets much…(yet)… I am publishing my

live commentary of the FOMC rate decision in a few minutes on my channel.

The NZD GDP figures tonight are forecast to be lower than previous (0.6 versus previous 0.8),

so if (post-Yellen press conference) the market will not ‘digest’ the ‘news’ with some degree

of movement, then the existing trends will continue unhindered, and if the NZD did have

a disappointing GDP reading, then the NZD/USD would continue lower, and the GBP/NZD will

retain its upward trajectory…

Since the FOMC rate decision, the EUR/USD has moved less than one hundred pips to the upside,

and the NZD/USD about fifty pips, so this has not been a ‘rocking the markets’ announcement…

Everyone in the press conference is trying to get Yellen to give more detail on when the first

rate hike may happen (2015 or 2016), but she is not giving an inch on that - that is the skill

of a central banker of her wisdom - so there is no real ‘juice’ to be squeezed out of this press

conference…

198

For the first time since February, the ten day range for NZD/JPY is below the 200 day moving average. Today’s low is just 63 pips away from the February lows. If NZD/JPY can stay below 87.00 throughout next week and finish that week without going over it, the ten day range will fall below that level for the first time since last October. This could be the downward move PipMeHappy has been looking for!

-Adrian

199

Hey PipMeHappy, I was wondering if you know when the next RBNZ statement/rate decision will be released? Similar to the one that caused a 700 pip move on the GBP/NZD upon release earlier this month. Is it released monthly? Because I’ve been trying to look for it but couldn’t find the upcoming one.

(I don’t know if you remember me I changed my username - the guy who got screwed over by the British kiwi pair)

200

Hi, yes, I remember your $800 loss… Have you made it up again?

The next RBNZ rate decision will be on the 23rd July, so you have quite a wait. . .

201

Good evening, traders!

Given the exciting opportunities offered by a potential un-blocking of the ‘Grexit’ dilemma,

and the Euro’s gap down offered tonight across its pairs (as well as across equities), I decided

to revisit my 2013 video analysis on NZD/JPY and produce a fresh video to see how my ‘predictions’

and the current situation align:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGoy6ITbIXA

Enjoy!

Happy trading!

202

The pair NZD/JPY has dropped a staggering 1,100 pips since its 92.00 levels!

Any buyers left? Haha

203

If they where they got some good money now :slight_smile: … I am averaging short!

204

This week, NZDJPY saw lower lows. So low, those levels have not been seen since 2013. Dang yo!

-Adrian

205

The NZD/JPY has descended below 0.81… In shorting the Kiwi, however, the potential to the upside for GBP/NZD is as great as that to the downside for NZD/JPY, with an important difference: while in the last four months the NZD/JPY has moved down about 1,100 pips, the GBP/NZD in the same period has moved (up) about 3,700 pips(!). Considering that both involve a negative rollover, I would choose the one with the greater trading range…