My article on trading a NZD/JPY long-term reversal to the downside

Trading Discussion
165

You know, defiance888, at this point in time, seeing how the US Dollar is struggling to reach above 12,000,

I would say that, perhaps, my NZD/USD shorting has yet again come to a halt… But the GBP/NZD has

indeed been so irreverently oblivious to the GBP/USD’s struggling performance (to the upside) or the

NZD/USD’s feeble upside attempts, that it has been a fantastic opportunity in the last seven weeks of

trading, with such bullish force that nobody looking at it could fail to notice its 2,100+ pips run…

At this point, though, even the US Dollar (medium-term) seems fundamentally better placed than

the NZ Dollar, so I am still banking on a continued downtrend for the latter, possibly down to 0.70 or

lower, which would certainly boost GBP/NZD to the upside…

Interesting times, defiance888!

166

Thanks for the reply, I guess I will wait for the news on the 4th and 10th and act accordingly :slight_smile:

Just a quick question. Are you also involved in EUR/USD? My TA indicated to go short

167

Dear Zaidz,

there is a huge thread on EUR/USD in Forextown, so I will urge you to read what is being talked about there,

as I do not really trade the EUR/USD … Of any Euro pairs that I follow, I only have EUR/GBP in my sights,

because I am a European living in the United Kingdom, so I have an active interest in the exchange rate

of the two currencies… I have no real advice to give on EUR/USD, apart from the fact that there is too

much ‘noise’ around it at the moment, with two camps shouting as loudly as one another: the ‘downtrend’

camp, and the ‘bullish reversal’ camp… To be honest, I am not sure where the Euro is going at the moment,

because I am not sure how the market is reacting to the ‘Grexit’ theme, or what the outcome of the talks

this week will be for a final resolution of the ‘Greek problem’… I am staying well clean of trading EUR/USD,

and even with the EUR/GBP I am only trying shorting it on my demo account, not on the live one…

There you go…

If you think it is time to go short within your time-frame of choice, then try it out, but of course beware

of the rate decision (ECB) tomorrow (12.45pm, GMT)…

169

I see this mentality alot with traders pipmehappy,

it is something i myself cannot really relate to and find it puzzling why people just prefer and favour to trade their home currency’s.

for me my favourite pair is the pair that will make me most money. I do not care if it is my home currency or not. the pair i trade the most is EUR/JPY, why? because it is a pair that tends to flow very symetrically alot of the time, it respects fibs well, and produces more gartleys than any other pair i know. therefore i tend to favour this pair over others even though it is not my home currency,

living in the UK i guess like many traders i should take more of an interest in eur/gbp, but it doesn’t really produce much gartleys, and votality is not great …and makes me not pay a huge amount of attention to it.

170

I agree totally with you…

171

I made some good trades to the downside on Eur/Gbp, and this is regardless of whether I am pro-Euro or pro-Pound: I just so happen to know this pair inside-out because when you exchange money in real life you are effectively participating in the forex market, which means that I had over twenty years of practising forex through Eur/Gbp (actually, Lira/Gbp, initially!)…,

172

Just went short on GBP/NZD… is it weird that my spread is 6.7 pips compared to 1.6 on the EUR/USD??

173

Ah…the UK inflation forecast will be released in less than an hour…watch out!

Yes, the spread for this pair (Kiwi-Pound) is greater because it is not as liquid a pair as, say, Euro-Dollar… It is exactly because of its lesser liquidity that it is more volatile…pros and cons…

174

Non-Farm Payrolls Fireworks (enjoy responsibly (use precaution))!

GBP/NZD, 5-minute chart:

Screen Shot 2015-06-05 at 13.45.14.jpg544×700 31.5 KB

175

Thank you, GRIX FX!

176

Which post of his??

177

I took a long at the GBP/NZD pair and I was impressed with its daily movements of 100+ pips up and down and its volatility

But today the pair seemed to be idle and only went downwards 180 pips once after hitting the 2.166 area, then remained in that range

I look at the 15 minute chart. Why has it been like this today? I was looking to make some pips

Today:

1093×214

Usually:

1053×212

(I just zoomed out the 2nd picture once to show the many waves it moves, for you to get my idea)

178

Today seems great for the GBP/NZD, could’ve got 200+ pips for shorting it.

I tried certain strategies I used on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and other major currencies, but they didn’t seem to work on this pair (maybe due to its volatility)? I use fibonacci (50-61.8 area) + RSI/Stoch to determine buying/selling opportunities usually, along with news

Do you have any specific strategies you use for this pair that you could share? thanks

179

Hello Zaidz97, I only started looking at this pair around October 2014, so I have not been through an entire market cycle (i.e. a financial year)…

I would say that because the pair is no new into a bull run off historic lows, there is a lot of room to the
upside, but the Fibonacci levels on a weekly or daily chart go back a very long time, and you may have to
pick your retracement periods carefully…

Therefore, this leaves me (personally) with:

  • fundamentals;
  • ‘round’ levels (whole number levels: 2.10, 2.11, 2.12, etc.)
  • ATR (to set targets).

That seems enough for me…

Personally, I am not comfortable with shorting it, because I see a bullish overall trend, so I would
rather trade longer term with the trend, rather than shorter-term counter-trend (my choice, of course)!

Happy trading.

180

I agree with you, but I am more of a very-short-term-day-trader (if that makes sense?). For this pair I look at 15-30minute chart for overall trend and then work on 5minute chart, so I’m happy to make 30-40 pips off each trade (regardless of the overall trend)

Seems to be working well but I’m scared to try it with bigger lots (only doing micro right now).

Good luck to you too

181

GBP/NZD up ~650 pips with RBNZ Statement and rate decision… Got me a few pips luckily although I almost had a heart attack when I placed a long order and the difference was 200+ pips than the price I ordered at. It happened to me before when I traded EUR/USD with the NFP news… although much less pip difference Why does this big difference happen?!

182

GBP/NZD up 450 pips…

Fireworks!!

Screenshot_2015-06-10-22-42-55.jpg394×700 21.7 KB

183

[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;705352”]GBP/NZD up 350 pips… Fireworks!! <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE] Congrats :slight_smile: did you

184

[QUOTE=“PipMeHappy;705352”]GBP/NZD up 350 pips… Fireworks!! <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/>[/QUOTE]

Congrats! :slight_smile: did you go long?

185

I was walking home to be witnessing this and was on time but a friend caught up with me and got here just as it all started so missed 90% of the move, at a guess!

That is what traders deal with all the time - missing big moves - so it is important to focus on the follow-through (if there is money to be made, it will be as much in the follow through of a continuation of this Kiwi bear trend, as there was in the flash moves tonight).

I caught a few pips very late, but I see that you did really well! Trading news is not my thing, too risky for me, but when it is this good (a surprise rate cut from the RBNZ) then you know it is a very strong one-sided move… sell, sell, SELL!

Ah, well :slight_smile: