[B]Hourly chart volume for NZD/USD now at over 41 million units…
Five minutes to go to the RBNZ rate decision…
Given that the BoJ, Fed, BoE, SNB, and RBA are all dovish, will the RBNZ’s forecast rate hold really surprise anyone?
[/B]
[B]THE RBNZ holds its rate at 3.5% and tops it with Wheeler’s peppered calls (hear, hear)
of an ‘unsustainable’ NZD/USD level… The markets took heed and punished the pair, sending it
down with huge volume behind it, finally breaking the 0.74 level… NZD/JPY is also punished, cracking
that 87.00 level it had been flirting with for the last 24-48 hours… [/B]
…watch for the snap-back… 
That’ s ok, Jake, I am covered 
I really do not see a snapback here, though… a stall, maybe, but there really is no mention of rate
hikes from the RBNZ any more, so nobody can read anything more into this… and the NZ data are
not supportive of any rate hikes… So what have we learnt tonight?
I think it is now clear that the Fed is, even on a status-quo statement, starting to look attractive to
the markets as the most hawkish bank, even more than the RBNZ, which is all rather perverse but
that is how we roll in this crazy forex world
NZD ALL THE WAY DOWN UNDER, I SAY!!
You should get into sportscasting. I read those last few posts and got a little emotional. My NZD/JPY screen just clicked an 86.50. Oh… I mean an 86.4… Uh… 86.35. OK yeah, 86.40.
funny!
VOLUME: over 107 million units (and rising);
pip movement: over 125 pips (to the downside)…
THERE IS NO COMEBACK
THERE IS NO SNAPBACK
THERE IS NO OTHER WAY BUT TO FOLLOW GRAVITY…
Oh snap! 86.10. PipMeHappy you got the key.
What a night it has been, Arbitrager!
The NZD/USD has closed its hourly candle with over 122 million units, and with this much volume it is no surprise that
the NZD/USD has dropped from the 0.75 level from earlier today down to the current 0.73(25)…
For anyone like me who has been shorting the NZD (mentally or with real money) for the last four-five months, today
was the kind of event where all stars align…
I feel good…and not just because of a few pips gained… I feel that I have embraced a new form of trading: waiting,
waiting, reading, waiting, watching, then…BAM… it all goes as planned… and all that waiting was worth it.
Below 86.00
…and the other Yen crosses have all had a turn down tonight, albeit not too big… It all seems to hint at
a Yen crosses reversal, but that is a much longer process and needing true risk-aversion…
However, there seemingly is very little stopping this Yen cross (NZD/JPY) from falling further, except maybe
the 25-period Simple Moving Average on the monthly chart, at the 84.29 level…
On the daily chart, NZD/JPY crossed the 200-day moving average four days ago, at 88.52…
Both seem to suggest that there is very little stopping the decline…
One of my favourite traders…
Great quote…
A Livermore moment indeed!
I’ll give you an opposing point of view quickly:
D1
HD Link
M5
HD Link
Very tight stop- very high limit.
With the amount of QE coming down the pipe, risk trends should benefit.
Central Banks have balked before- i.e. most recently the SNB de-pegging.
To me, this pair is on sale right now. Roll is just an added benefit.
I don’t see bulls sweating until 84 is violated. That’s my line in the sand this thing is losing steam.
Pretty clean techs on the D1 to warrant buying into this weakness as far as I’m concerned.
It’s not a question of who is right or wrong- it’s a question of open and respectful debate! 
Jake
We have some veeeerrryy tasty Kool-Aid over here. I bet we have your favorite flavor. C’Mon just a little.
Thanks for idea took a 85 pips 2 long 2 short NZD/YEN.
Right or wrong direction depending of what you trading . both can be right in same time perspective
Time to sleep
Thanks Jake, what you say is also true, and our views complement one another… Risky assets are being fed less safety, since the Fed cut off its QE, and for various reasons some of the Yen crosses are still holding up while others are creaking at the seams: GBP/JPY and USD/JPY are still buoyant, whereas NZD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and CAD/JPY have all severely broken through their 200-day moving average (daily chart), which in itself is strategically significant.
EUR/JPY is my favorite on the techs. Jan 12: breaks 200 day MA. Jan 14: breaks previous upward trend line. Jan 23: breaks below Oct 16 minor low. Jan 27: bounces off that minor low back to the downside. The 10-day high is already below the 200 day MA.
I spoke too soon… 0.73 holds, for now