Currently have 2 trades open both LONG positions on USD as you can see in the charts. I’ll be posting my trades everyday here & just my sentiment via chart screenshots.
My USD/JPY trade end up being profitable I closed it at 113.517 (Have some other open positions that I wanted to cater too)
Bullish sentiment with the FOMC min still looking like they’re on track for the hike on December but uncertainty about next year.
Have a LONG USD/CAD that I’m eyeing a possible SHORT EUR/USD.
Good to see you’re expecting GBP.USD to drop further - I’ve still got a position open on that one too 
Yeah mate shorting that cable, probably might take one more trade for today & call it quits for the week. I’ll just monitor the news/charts after that.
Yes, Cable has shown a decent selection of opportunities - not to sure why some people are avoiding GBP
Look at those clear breaks to the downside - it’s almost a textbook example.
You’re right about that I feel like the uncertainty behind everything can still push GBP lower. Funny thing is I took a long GBP/JPY trade earlier this week that netted me profit when it crossed the 145 range and I quickly jumped out of it. Definitely will like to see what the first 2 weeks of December brings with all this seesaw action we are getting whiplashed with.
Yep, next two weeks will be interesting to say the least. I don’t trade December and January, so i’ll be missing out on the fun, but having some fun of my own taking time out. Hope it works out for you!
Haha I respect that sentiment. It’s all about weathering the long storms right my friend. I’m myself rather trade lightly usually on the end of a year/beginning a new year. I’m definitely plotting on a bullish USD trade during the week of said “interest rate” & monitoring this Brexit situation because I could probably possibly buy some GBP for low and hold on to it who knows. Will definitely be vigilante that’s for sure! Since you’re not trading on December, does that mean tomorrow will be your final day or are you calling it quits after you close out your last position?
That’s a smart way to think - i’m unsure though how low the GBP could depreciate.
Yep, this is my last trade for the year, i’ll be back on monday the 4th Feb to do it all over again.
I’ve always found over the past number of years that Dec and Jan are by far my worst performers - and that’s consistent!
By the way… you remember that big move up in EUR/USD. Everyone was was surprised suggesting that many people would have been stopped out?
Look at this for a clue…both 4 hours and 8 hours before it even happened. smack bang on the -138.2 fib from the prior weeks total range. And there’s me saying I hate fibonacci…
Haha your right sometimes history has a way of repeating itself and really kicking us in the butt. I’ve only been trading live for 1 year now so I can’t really say I have a bad anything necessarily. I’ll say this I let way more profitable trades pass me up due to caution more than anything else. I never want to get into a place where I feel like I know the market because that’s when I feel like it kicks you on your ass. If I may ask how long have you been trading for?
It does indeed, but December and January is also a good time to go away a catch some sun, perhaps? Especially when you live in the UK!
I guess I first started in late 2009, but I was clueless. Maybe since 2014 i’ve taken it more seriously and built up a decent approach, especially in the last few years when I made the move from 1H charts to 4H charts, looking for one or two trades per week. The problem is that when you first start at this you just don’t have the patients to wait an entire week for an entry, the excitement just won’t allow it. Anyway, after blowing a few thousand on accounts it becomes clear that you really have to look at the bigger picture in this game. I love it though, hopefully i’ll take the jump and quit my FT job in the next few years and focus on this - the stats are there, the proof is there, and the profits and there. I’m not there emotionally though to hand in my P45 and take the jump!
Ok I see and totally understand not wanting to give up your day job anytime soon. I truly agree with approach for sure. See I was trading demo for 3 years on/off. I blown one account up and after that the next 3 on demo I traded profitably. I figured the biggest issue is taking out that emotional constraint factor for sure. Now I definitely tend to look at things on the big picture as well. So far I’m comfortable with the 15min,1h,4h setup I got going on. It gets me into the action on time & out on time. Since I’m more of a day trader I love the occasional small profits. I’m never greedy & more importantly I take out emotional bias when I trade. Other than that I own a small business so it gives me a bit more flexibility to truly backtest some ideas & theories.
You see, i’m a hard wired gambler, always have been and always will be, the secret is how to turn that into your advantage. I’m not scared to take a risk.
I’m also in two minds to leave this short open in GBP.USD until I return in Feb 
Fair enough - you’ve got the lay on the line perspective.
That Brexit is looming over everyones head.
Hey from your gamblers perspective you’ve got a 50% chance of being right - hell those are pretty high odds if I was a gambling man. 
Hope it does bring chaos because I’m going to go after the euro as well!!
This is true and a breakeven stop would certainly be in place.
But all joking aside, this isn’t really a tough game to play once you’ve got the foundations. I unfortunately agree (because I never wanted to agree) that you do have to adapt every so often, one specific rigid approach will not work all the time. The markets do change over a number of years, the golden egg is awarded when you have a basket of approaches that fit all possible market cycles - and ofcourse knowing when to apply them.
My most valuable advice would be to find sections of the market where the following is happening…
- Market Crash (recession style - From aug 2008 for perhaps 8 months was the most extreme)
- Declining market (not a crash, but steady depreciation of a currency)
- Sideways movement (not easy to spot until after the event)
- A rallying market (not a boom, but steady appreciation of a currency)
- A boom ( a market relentlessly climbing, i’m yet to see that in a GBP pair)
If you can find an approach for those four or five combined with being able to identify when you are in that market specific cycle then that, in my view, is the holy grail - it’s bulletproof.
Well, that’s food for thought…
I’d personally combine point 2, 3 and 4 into a system as this is the ‘norm’. Then points 1 and 5 as they are opposites of the same extreme. If you can nail that, well, then you have a pretty solid foundation.
Fair enough I would definitely agree knowing what type of market you’re in from the jump could make trading so much easier. Obviously to achieve that takes time & experience of constantly looking at a pair/chart for so long you start noticing it’s “bad habits”. For example, when I started I only looked at USD/JPY and nothing else and had a trade I had in demo I sat on for months on end. My approach is to try distinctively notice when a price point gets “sticky” usually around the S/R levels. That constant friction of tug of war where bears & bulls are between a deadlock. Historically I look at shorter frames so I’ll maybe go back a few days & see what history has in store when it hits that price area/range. Then assessing my own sentiment with news reports & understanding lagging details that might take a few minutes, hours, or days to materialize. Then I try to think in 3 head spaces (individuals mind / mid tier/professional brokers & etc / banks, regulatory boards, & etc). If that doesn’t usually get me a concrete clue where to go I usually just sit out on the benches and eat cake.
Careful, that has implications too when speculating…
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Haha that’s where the constant daily workouts come into play. Can’t be happy to pip if I’m not alive to see the pips. All about the health kick
So my USD/CAD trade from yesterday got triggered while I was asleep & made profit @ 1.33 level.
I have some potential SHORTS on GBP/USD, EUR/USD & AUD/USD but I’m kind of sitting out to monitor the whole G20 situation. I might place a 1 trade today & call it a wrap for the week. Let’s see which way I end up swinging.
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