My EURUSD and other things

[anon46773462]

@anon46773462

The Euro against all these currencies is now trading between the last Friday’s close and yesterday’s daily pivot level - that, for me, that spells neutral, lack of fresh news, mild consolidation, sit on hands…

Seems we are continuing in the same scenario into the weekend! The Euro against the USD on its “left” and the YEN on its “right”, as well as against its own European brothers, GBP and CHF, is sailing without a following wind. Drifting up to the previous Friday close and off again. My hands are going numb with sitting on them. It is sometimes so hard to not to look for a trade when there is nothing there to see (except maybe on a scalping or very short-term, 15m-5m TFs).

These charts are NOT trading charts, they are just visual representations of verbal descriptions. These are the week’s 4H visuals showing a flat consolidatory performance capped by last week’s close and floored by a lack of fresh news and some alleviation in negative issues, mainly on the trade war front. The horizontal green line is the previous Fri close and the dashed green line is the 200 SMA:

I guess it is not overly surprising to see such indecisive action when all the significant economic powers in the world seem to be locked in trade wars and/or trade negotiations.

Seems to me that the US president is engaged in the initial “roughing up the opposition” stages of upcoming trade negotiations - i.e. the advantage of negotiating from a position of strength rather than just a level playing field. Undoing existing agreements but not so many concluded new ones…

Similarly, The UK is having to break new ground by being the first country to negotiate an exit from the EU and its future mutual trading terms - and trying to do it with a weak government minority. Even with the slim majority gained through the alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party, the problem seems to be that there is no current proposal that will satisfy sufficient MPs to gain a majority in parliament…and time is running out and even the BofE Governor seems to feel that a “no-deal” exit is a real possibility…and no-one knows what that will mean to either the GBP or the Euro.

As I understand it, the US and China will be returning to trade talks soon. Iran and Turkey remain big issues…

In technology the world is getting smaller and smaller, in trade it just seems to be falling to pieces. The good news is, those pieces are not going anywhere, it is just a question of where, when, how and in what form they will all fit together again - just some minor issues!

[ria_rose]

Wow. I’m very excited about this thread @anon46773462 ! I’ll be closely reading the updates.

I demo trade with EURUSD and apart from what the signals are telling me, I don’t know much about the EUR. (Oh! Also apart from what the school mentioned. ) Tbh, I feel like I’ve already learned so much, just reading the first post. Thanks for sharing this Manxx1

[peterma]

Banking, and perhaps especially its banking secrecy, is maybe the most globally recognised Swiss characteristic

Aye, the numbered Swiss bank account was the place to hide from tax authorities, that is until the advent of automatic exchange of information on financial accounts (AEOI).

Nowadays the information doesn’t even need to be asked for, the banks automatically disclose the info on respective countries’ citizens (those countries who have signed up, it’s a long list).

The only good news for tax cheats is that the data must not be published.

[anon46773462]

I’ll be closely reading the updates.

Good to see you here, @ria_rose I’ll try not to post too much mundane waffle knowing you might be reading it!

As I mentioned, this is not a trading blog as such but I will try to post how I am seeing things.

It is really quite fascinating to think that there is an infinite amount of information out there about the Euro, and any other currency,and yet as traders we often try to reduce all that down to just a couple of lines on a PC screen!

But as I see it, TA joins up all the dots and makes a recognisable shape whereas all the background info can make it much more interesting by colouring in all the spaces…

[anon46773462]

Aye, the numbered Swiss bank account was the place to hide from tax authorities, that is until the advent of automatic exchange of information on financial accounts (AEOI).

Good point, @peterma! Thanks for that

For anyone interested here is more info on AEOI in general and the Swiss banking system:

https://www.swissbanking.org/en/topics/current-issues/the-automatic-exchange-of-information

Note the statement that:

“The Swiss banks will be implementing the automatic exchange of information (AEOI) with countries abroad from 2017 onwards.”

ALso, see the OECD info:

http://www.oecd.org/tax/transparency/automaticexchangeofinformation.htm

[peterma]

@anon46773462

But as I see it, TA joins up all the dots and makes a recognisable shape whereas all the background info can make it much more interesting by colouring in all the spaces…

Very true on Eur/Gbp

That cross is still very much a Brexit play. Lately the news on same has been GBP negative, so up it goes in stages. Those levels become predictable so long as the news remains as is.

I’ve been mentioning those levels over this past few months, last time was back some weeks the new red line was 89.00

Trading The News

The old red line is history I mentioned on another thread 10 days ago about a new one, 60 years later, the beginning of the new EU - post 143 The Brexit news has remained pretty much as was since, so the TA came to the fore. The bottom line is 88.20 - buy orders sitting there, was previously 87.20 as mentioned up above. This is news trading on a news trend - steps to levels: [image]

Week before last price meandered around that line, gathering buys, no change in news.

Last week price took off from there, reached as high as 90.00 then slowly back to the red line - supposedly on a rumour of movement from the EU.

This week, the rumour having been discounted - well it’s possible to see.

There was no change in the news Tuesday, so no sells below 89.00, next day still no change on Brexit so when price was worked back down - surprise surprise no sells waiting.

[anon46773462]

So yesterday was indeed another directionless day for the Euro. Most of the day we were hovering around the previous Friday close like the proverbial bees around the honeypot. But in the closing hours of this week we did finally see a break through that level and a sudden blip to the upside which in thin, TA-based trading, managed to reach the 200 SMA on the 1H chart - well, except for the EURJPY which appeared to spend the day trying really hard in both directions and getting nowhere.

Euro charts - 1H:

So why the spike up towards the close?

I would suggest it was due to speculative traders with near-term shorts with little profit, if any, closing out for the weekend ahead of some potentially market-moving events over the weekend. In particular we have current, extremely important and high-profile, negotiations between the EU and the UK, which could produce comments and events at any time. Then we have President Putin’s weekend meeting with Germany’s Chancellor Merkel. Whilst there is nothing specific on their agenda that is particularly and specifically sensitive from the Euro perspective, issues such as the NordStream 2 gas line and various sanctions and trade war issues, as well as Iran, where Europe is in disagreement with the US, could have some impact on where we open on Monday and what the sentiment is likely to be.

Another issue starting to fester is rising out of the ruins of the Morandi bridge in Genoa in Italy. I am sure all our condolences go out to all the families, friends and relatives of the victims of this tragedy as well as to the entire Italian population. But even as the dust is still settling on the rubble and Italy holds its day of mourning, so the fallout is gathering pace and spreading fast. Everyone wants to know why this happened and who is accountable for such a tragedy.There is a saying that the best form of defence is attack, and we are seeing some rapid political finger-pointing going on. But beyond the political self-defence there are huge issues here which are spreading throughout the European countries like the summer forest fires around the globe. Issues which will inevitably impact on national budgets in a significant way. Issues such as:

How many other bridges are suffering from such structural weaknesses?
How do these bridges cope with today’s traffic volumes and commercial vehicles which they were not built to withstand?
Were the bridges built according to specifications or was there corner-cutting (such as weak concrete) to save costs and increase profits?
Are the safety checks carried out properly and are they sufficient in both scope and frequency?

And then that leads to the inevitable wider concern: what other areas of infrastructure from that same era are also now at risk of collapse?

There is already talk in my country of residence concerning bridge safety, structural checks, and how much money needs to be spent, and hasn’t been spent, on infrastructure. It is so easy for authorities with cost-saving needs to postpone renovations and renewals year after year, until finally something breaks, bursts or collapses. How much money has not been spent on these projects in the past, and how much will now have to be found in the aftermath of the Morandi bridge to catch up?

But bridges can often be beautiful things, architecturally challenging, economically essential and aesthetically pleasing:

The Vasco da Gama Bridge spans the Tagus River in Lisbon, Portugal. It is the longest bridge in Europe with a total length of 17.2 km:

[ria_rose]

Good to see you here, @ria_rose I’ll try not to post too much mundane waffle knowing you might be reading it!

I really appreciate it Manxx! I’m not super smart so I’m afraid I wouldn’t understand really technical stuff. Haha. I understand that it’s not really a trading thread, but I still feel like it might give me a better understanding of the factors that affect the EU’s moves.

[anon46773462]

I am not around much at the moment @ria_rose . I am taking a summer “maintenance break” recharging the batteries with some of nature’s peace! and doing some of those things around the home that one otherwise never seems to get round to doing…

[anon46773462]

Oh no! My laptop has been struck by the dreaded BSOD otherwise known as the Blue Screen Of Death.

Some kind of “critical process died” it says. No way of opening it, not even in Safe Mode…black clouds!

Oh well, looks like next week will go on trying to revive it or replace it…

[alphahavoc]

[ria_rose]

Aww! I’m happy to hear that you’ve had time to really relax and breathe in the nature. I’ve also been away for awhile since I celebrated with my friends and family! Haha. But I’m so excited to be back again, and I look forward to your updates here. Take care always Manxx! The view’s really pretty btw!

[anon46773462]

@anon46773462

Oh no! My laptop has been struck by the dreaded BSOD otherwise known as the Blue Screen Of Death.

Some kind of “critical process died” it says. No way of opening it, not even in Safe Mode…black clouds!

Oh well, looks like next week will go on trying to revive it or replace it…

Not such a major disaster afterall. But it did mean a clean startup with Windows 10, which overwrites just about everything. But fortunately, I have learned the lesson about regularly backing up work many years back and it has become a weekly habit so the damage is minimal. It just means a lot of time finding and re-installing what matters.

Some apps and programs have disappeared into some “black hole” somewhere and some were installed so long ago with different e-mail addresses and phone nos etc that I cannot confirm my original acquisition - but these are all peripheral items and no lost sleep.

Actually, it is quite a positive thing to have gone through this cleansing process!

So if you don’t already regularly back up your work, files and programs - do it!!

Now to get back to business…

At least the EU is still looking positive and continuing the upmove started last Friday (1H chart):

[anon46773462]

Some weakness slipped into the close yesterday that continued though the early sessions. Enough to flip the 1H near term into neutral. Which is not surprising after a few updays and with little fresh input. Daily and 4H both still technically positive but I am not really convinced about the potential for more upside here.

I have a small short position open with a focus on last Friday’s close - just to get back into the swing of it and to have something to focus on - but am still not properly up and running after a few weeks break so need to do some background research before commenting further. Friday is again the month end, so normal trading will resume next week…

My stop is just above that range in the yellow box which we last broke out of. But we couldn’t sustain the break above 1.17. If we find the strength to climb back there then we will have also broken above the daily pivot and I will not want to be short any more. If we don’t, then we may typically find our way back to the last weekly close…but. like I said, the objective is more just to get back into the rhythm after the annual “maintenance break”

[anon46773462]

Scratched it with 10 pips, no follow-through and timed out. Incredibly boring actually…done for the month.

[Sunray401]

Hey Manxx. Great stuff you area posting here. Very new in BabyPips and reading your post with great interest.
Been trading for the past two years with success and failures (mostly failures while learning). I am near London and Intend to watch the GBP, EUR, USD pairs.
I hope to finally be on the road to success slowly abb following your views and analysis.
Great work!!

[anon46773462]

On Friday the Euro closed on, or close to, its 4H 200 SMA against GBP, JPY, USD and CAD!

It is currently performing best against AUD and worst against CHF.

But I guess my pick would be looking to sell EU and EJ unless they trade and close on Monday above their 4H 200 SMA’s which I had at 1.15874 and 128.870 on Friday’s close respectively.

[anon46773462]

But I guess my pick would be looking to sell EU and EJ unless they trade and close on Monday above their 4H 200 SMA’s which I had at 1.15874 and 128.870 on Friday’s close respectively.

No signs of follow-through weakness yet with EU or EJ. I think it is worth waiting until the close today to see if there are confirmations of direction before taking any positions here.

As I have said before, this is not intended as a trading thread with regular recommendations and updates simply because I do not want the responsibility for prompt updating, rather it is just my occasional thoughts on what could be called “things European including currencies”.

However, I have been thinking about putting here some thoughts on the Euro against the other various majors based on a daily charting analysis and using the 4H/1H to call the entry and exits. Being historically a shorter term trader, I am not sure how this is going to work out but I’ll give it a go! - and I have changed the thread title accordingly!

I have no open positions at present, but I am also watching for a possible long against CAD if we close firm today…

[anon46773462]

Country Spotlight - Scotland

On a quiet US Labor Day there is time to look at something else. During August I managed at last to visit Scotland, something I have wanted to do for many years.

Driving up through Glasgow for a week around Loch Ness and Inverness before returning via Edinburgh and almost the entire length of the A1/A1(M) to London and a flight home.

Scotland is a beautiful country in its own right but with a Scandinavian flavour in its pine forests and lakes.

The main highlights were a tour of the GlenGoyne distillery, the Loch Ness Museum, Fort George and the battlefield/museum of Culloden – that fateful one-hour battle between the Highland Jacobites and the English troops.

The battle of Culloden on 16 April 1746 ended the Jacobite claim of Charles Edward Stuart to the throne of England, being defeated by the Hanoverian forces commanded by William Augustus, Duke of Cumberland, aged 25 at the time!

However, Scottish identity and its spirit of independence seems just as strong today and is overtly visible in its attitudes towards Brexit. Issues concerning how Scottish laws and trade will continue post-Brexit, and even whether Scotland would leave the UK and remain in the EU, are being strongly debated.

Scotland’s currency is the British pound sterling but with a difference. Instead of being issued by a central bank, Scottish banknotes are issued under various laws by retail banks in Scotland of which there are currently three: Bank of Scotland, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Clydesdale Bank.

[anon46773462]

Not surprisingly on US Labor Day, I didn’t find anything very interesting after today’s trading.

Against Yen and USD, the balance is still slightly negative but we remained above both the 4H 200 SMA and Friday’s close.

Against CHF, it is still negative on Daily and 4H, but again, remained above Friday’s close.

Against GBP the Euro had a good day, but this pair is trading Brexit deals and is very vulnerable to sharp fluctuations at any time. I am not trading this one at all.

Against AUD, the Euro has already been strong for some days but maybe mainly due to recent AUD political issues and possibly prone to some consolidation/reversal from here.

Against NZD and CAD, it is looking strong and I am looking at possibly going long here but will wait until tomorrow…