What a great start! I hope you do well in the forex trading.
Good morning Journal.
Well, where do I begin?
Got lots of things I would like to talk about. But, I think the biggest thing is that we just finished the month of April. And you know what that means…
Time to give a reckoning of what happened.
And I did, Journal. I spent all morning going over the most important things I went through this past month. And well, I put it in the April Journal mind map that you see up there. Also I fill out the April Trading results mind map. (These are on my desk top)
I’m not happy about the results, this month. No way. But what can I do?
Therefore, I don’t feel like talking about it. Anymore, that is. Cause I already went through it. I digested it. I mourned about it. And already picked myself up off the ground. Don’t feel like getting down there again. That’s all.
Just read it, if you feel like.
Otherwise, we’re moving on.
That’s nice.
Anyway.
My new trading strategy trade went well. I completed my first trade. Here’s the summary of it.
Remember where I’m coming from, concerning this strategy.
This is the main objective for this strategy.
I don’t care about:
- how many pips to attain
- how much % of account to attain
- where I should be getting in at
- where I should be getting out at
- how long the trade should be in the market
One thing only.
— Every trade must result in the positive —
I’m a perfectionist. And we’re gonna find out how many trades in a row I can accomplish this task. So, you better believe I will be:
- Exercising much patience before I engage in this trade
- Have spent much effort preparing, in advance, the context of a pair
- Taking full advantage of an opportunity that the market might produce
Yeah Journal, I’ll tell you one thing I really liked that I did with this first trade. It was waiting out the week. And then accurately calling how the last day will turn out. Look. I know I could have been simply lucky. No doubt. And I can’t possibly think I have an edge this way. But, I got to tell you. I do remember, quite some time ago (few years for sure), that I pondered this trading edge. This is something I’m gonna have to remember, and address at some point down the road.
This is the edge.
Watch what happens on Monday…Tuesday…Wednesday. Even Thursday. Then, given all this set up, and run up, enter in with the flow that is to take place at the weeks end. And Journal, that’s exactly what I did with that trade. It was mid day on Thurs. that I got into it. And this is exactly what I’m talking about when I say to get in the flow, for the end of the week. See. The NZD and the JPY both made it quite easy for me. They both had such a run up, like one way movement, that come end of week it really can only go the other way. Well, the probabilities are quite high for that anyway. Check this out.
Well, first off, you have to remember that before this week even took place, I had such a bearish bias for this pair. And so, what happens? The week takes off, and so does this pair. Of course I’m in disbelief. But know that I am wrong. And am very happy I’m waiting, also. Right? But there it goes, straight up. Every day. And then on Thursday, mid day, I see that the NZD, as a complete currency, started to turn negative. But also, I seen that the JPY also, started to turn positive for the first time in the week. But it’s those things that made me convinced of getting into this trade.
- The initial bearish sentiment, that I previously put a lot of work into.
- A high probability of a retracement before the week ends.
- Needed enough of a drop down. It went 149 pips straight up since the week started. And I only wanted around 40 pips worth of a sell.
Boy…I got to remember this. I feel this can be exploited, as an edge. It’s like playing the week, as I’ve mentioned that I would like to do.
But, if I were to ask why this trade of mine worked? What would the answer(s) be? And I’m just wondering if this aspect of waiting and seeing what happens in a week pays off at the end of it? Well, probably so. But coupled also with the other aspects that I have built into it. You know?
That’s nice.
I know.
Well, I got to cut this Journal.
Will be back tomorrow morning. I do have much a want to get down in here.
Lot’s going on.
Thanks for listening, Journal.
Mike
Good morning Journal.
Can I show you something interesting?
You have to see this. I’ve been noticing it all week. But then yesterday morning, it all came together, and I took these pictures to make the point. I find this very interesting!
Let’s see. What would I say the point of this is?
How the aggregate is much more important than the individual parts.
And I believe that this gives me an edge.
Let me set this up. All last week (and you should know) I was watching the NZD/JPY pair. Well, honestly, only when the EOD came. You know. Cause, for one thing, I was in disbelief of how it can continually be moving up. And on the other hand, you should know that I believe in the aggregate pip count chart, for a particular currency, is more telling for the direction than anything else. The aggregate is simply the sum of all it’s parts. Right? And that’s why I’m not a fan of looking at one currency pair chart.
Now that’s my point, if anything.
Check this out.
The NZD. It’s aggregate pip count chart.
We have one of it’s parts (NZD/JPY) matched up to that, since the years start.
But what gives me the edge here is what is happening in the aggregate (above). Not in the particular chart. This is how I was reading them.
Ever since that precipitous drop (on the top is at day 56) I felt that if it rose up above that point, I believe the down trend would change (go ahead and match it up with what’s happening on the bottom). So then day 74 comes and that point get’s rejected. Now if you draw a line across the top of that big red down candle (Mar 22) then that would correlate to what’s going on with the top chart. Right? So then, I’m thinking that there must be a resistance line there. It gets rejected there like 3 times.
But then comes this week. Monday’s daily candle broke up and over that resistance line. Right? You can’t argue that. Ok. Well, some would say that you don’t go by one line, you go by an area, which is nothing more than a buffer space. Ok fine. I’ll give you that. So then Tuesday comes. Wait. Before we move on, let’s compare to what’s happening on the aggregate chart. Monday’s line goes up. It’s the 81 line. Remember now, my line in the sand is now at the 74 point. The 81 line does not go up above it.
I guess I have to give the picture again.
Now, Tuesday comes and prints a small daily green candle. Slightly higher. And on top it prints a down line. Remember what we’re doing here, comparing it’s aggregate to just one pair. But then comes Wednesday. It prints a big green candle. And it’s aggregate counterpart does what? Well, in my book, I call that the inflection point. It’s the apex point. And from experience, this tells me that I have one more shot at it. I used to jump out at this time, but after getting burned soooo many times I’ve changed my rules to make me stay in for one more day…see it through.
Thursday comes. Apparently during the Asian session, boy, it’s climbing. And then through the London session and into the US session it’s making an about face. Coming down. And look. You know the story how I came in here and wrote up that I’m getting into this trade at that time. I’m gonna take the opportunity (for the fall).
But the point here is that Thursday’s print on the aggregate chart is a down line. The inflection point turned back around. That told me that the prevailing low trend was still intact. And on the other chart, it prints a doji candle. Indecision time. Looking like a top forming. Right?
Look. I’ll make the point. I was just wondering how it could continue on up (on the bottom chart) but not technically breaking up and above on the top chart. What would I want to trust more? The aggregate chart or the particular chart?
It’s a no brainer. The aggregate is what you would want to rely on. As this week was unraveling, all I kept thinking was how much easier it is to trust in the aggregate.
When I keep looking at that NZD/JPY chart, I guess someone could say what would clear it all up would be to take into consideration the two tops that were printed earlier. And that would give you the area resistance to be mindful than an actual resistance line. Ok. Fine. I’ll buy that. But, a line is easier to manage than an area.
Well, I’ll tell you what’s more interesting than that. Ready for this?
Let’s keep with the NZD.
There’s other parts involved though, right? Well, let’s look at them. Let’s compare this whole set up in the same way. What kind of conclusions can we make with these other ones?
NZD/CAD.
Well, if I were concentrating on this pair, only, I would have been getting fooled. Cause I would be thinking that when it rose up above (around the 19th) the resistance level, I would be like this is a break up above and a retest kind of situation. Like the beginning of a new trend. Up. But nope. No way. Someone would say that this is a fake out. And all I got to say is that I didn’t get faked out on the aggregate chart.
The GBP/NZD.
What to say about this one? shrug
Well, on the aggregate chart, the NZD has been on the decline since day 39 or so. You really can’t say that with this chart. I would have to say that the NZD has been on the decline almost the entire time. Except in April. It has gotten stronger and is resting on some resistance level now. This is a bad chart (pair). It just doesn’t tell us much. The match up is a tough one, for sure.
The NZD/CHF pair.
Yeah, you can plainly see the top matches up. Then it comes down. It makes lower swing lows. But it is quite clear on this pair that the down trend is more evident. And then look at the latest consolidation period. Now that looks like a bear flag, huh? But if you look back, it’s all stepped down, whether the landings or the swings. This pair would not throw you much in the way of a curve ball. Right?
The EUR/NZD pair.
Well, if you can do the inverse thing in your mind, you should be able to see that there’s more of a bias for the upside, which will mean a weaker NZD. I don’t know, it’s a tough pair. I think. Maybe it just hasn’t broken out of this magnetic sort of line, area, yet. shrug
How about the NZD/USD pair.
Yeah, kind of reminds me of the CAD pair. It looks like a faking out, or a breaking upward off of the resistance line. Or area. I don’t know. But now it’s dead on that resistance level that the big red huge down candle printed back around Mar 22nd.
I mean, is this a break above and a retest? Therefore that would tell me that the NZD can very possibly go bullish again. Right? Unlike what the aggregate is showing. This is interesting to me. Now. Who do we trust?
You should know my answer by now.
Actually, this is quite similar to the JPY pair. Let me put it up, take a look.
Interesting. You can probably read these two and conclude that it very well could be a break and retest. And we won’t know the outcome yet, until more days come. Now on the aggregate chart, the conclusion is made already. Back on down.
Again. This is interesting to me. I guess we need the rest of the story.
If the NZD continues on down, then it’ll solidify my notion that the aggregate chart is more correct. My beliefs will stay intact. But if there’s a change coming, and the NZD starts moving north, and then it’s trend change, well then I’ll have to reconsider my beliefs.
Actually I’ll have to see what the aggregate chart shows. Cause you never know, maybe we can get fooled on the aggregate, just as we can on the particular ones.
Well, sorry Journal, for all that nonsense.
Yeah, I did want to throw all this up there.
But I do want to start thinking about what I’m gonna do next. Remember, it’s important to lay the ground work for whatever trading is next.
Ok then. I’ll cut this short and come right back. I plan on working through the process with you. And we’ll have to see what kind of conclusions I come up with.
See you shortly Journal.
Mike
Journal.
The question for me is, what pair(s) will I consider trading?
This is just the process that I do on my Anchor Trade III strategy.
Well, the only thing that makes sense, is to come back to where I last left off at. I had success with the NZD/JPY trade. Maybe there’s more to come with this. Right? I mean, I’ve already laid a lot of ground work with it.
Which is:
My bias for the NZD is for down. Who knows…Surely it could hit some resistance and bounce right back on up. We could be seeing a higher swing low if it’s the case of a bullish trend trying to form. Right? But that’s always the case. The market can do anything it wants. You can make a case for just about anything to happen. Honestly. It depends on whatever context you want to put it in.
But what I’ve learned is that you have to go with what it’s telling you right now. And then be prepared to change course if that change occurs. But what I’m seeing right now, up there on that chart, is it’s on a down trend ever since day 38 - 39. No one can argue that point with me. That is what’s correct. And since we are in the business of trying to figure out where things are gonna go next, well then, I believe you have to pick what the current situation is saying. Not what it could be saying.
That’s nice.
The JPY.
Well, I’m not gonna lie. I definitely thought that out of all that consolidation we would be seeing a move up. But nope. Down it goes. Even more (can you believe it). Well, my view on them is this. I need to see something quite big. This last leg down has told me that there’s money that still wants to go short the JPY. Therefore, I absolutely will not jump in any Yen trade…yes…including this pair NZD/JPY…until I see some fireworks. I mean, I’m not gonna risk a cent unless they convince me it’s going quite far up.
Look. We’ve just entered into May. That’s the month to Sell and go away.
What I would want to see is the JPY be on top of the entire stack. Being the most bought currency, convincingly. And I’m not talking about a little bit either. Maybe I will even wait until I see some EOD prints go up and above that resistance level (-6k on the chart). It’s just too risky to try to call a bottom with these guys. Honestly.
I’m gonna move on. But, those are my sentiments concerning this NZD/JPY pair.
Anything else?
Well, while we’re close to the risk-off sentiment, let’s take a look at the CHF. This chart should help.
Now. Keeping with the risk-off theme, you should be able to see that when the JPY came up and leveled out there (that’s in April btw) that the CHF also rose up. I’m talking not just a little either. Way much more than the JPY. And then was supported from falling back down. So yeah, I would say that the CHF was the more bought up currency for the safe haven pick. But see, the risk-off sentiment really didn’t materialize all that much. But at least it was somewhat evident.
Well, the only other currency that might depict a risk-off scenario would be the USD. Let’s look at them.
April was straight down. Selling for the USD. But…you have to see that we really didn’t know that when it was happening. What we did see, as it was unraveling, was that it was retracing some of those gains. See that little zig zag around the 1000 pip line? It easily could have bounced back up from there. We didn’t know what was gonna happen around that time. Remember, we just got done doing a lot of Dollar buying. And this would have been a real good time to buy the dip, and go get some more. But no. Down it goes.
Remember, selling of the USD pretty much means buying a lot of the other currencies. More like risk-on. Well…there’s so much other things going on, you just can’t bottle up what the exact market sentiment was so simply. Between the US fundamentals, risk-on/off, technical reasons, treasury yield differentials, global trade flow reasons…geeeez, the reasons can be many. It doesn’t matter. All we really care about is if there’s a trend or not. Right?
My point with them is, that’s there’s no correlation to what they were doing and what the other 2 safe haven currencies were doing. Now, I don’t know what to make of that last huge bounce at the end of the month was for. Was it simply profit taking? Could be. Or maybe it could be a sign of things to come, for this new month were heading into. We never know. But we do know that change likes to happen around the turn of a month. And for an example of this I would say just look at the beginning of April. A double top occurred all around this change of month.
I would say that my bias would be for a long USD. Just like with the JPY, I would have to see something convincingly. Not just a little elevated either. And I would say that there would have to be some correlations with the other 2 safe haven currencies. I would need to see them rise up for the occasion also.
Let’s look at the AUD. Any similarities with the NZD?
This is a little different. Seems like we have a cliff here. Boy would I like to see it’s aggregate EOD count drop below the floor it’s pretty much sitting on now. Right? That surely would spell a lower AUD. Cause we do have lower swing highs. And a fall off this cliff would make me risk my money. So…I guess this is quite simple. I’m gonna let that be my trigger, or I should say my confirmation factor. A green light.
And that would be for a short trade. I would have to pick the long trade currency, in order for a pair.
Either one of the safe haven currencies, or even the USD, if the market goes that way.
What about the EUR?
They are on an uptrend. No doubt. Clearly since April. Now this just might be one of the currencies I could depend upon for long. Right? There’s no secret here. The consensus has been a buy. This is technically speaking. I’m quite not sure what will happen if we go by way of, safe haven, risk-off buying. Compared to the USD, their a risk-on currency. But compared to the AUD & NZD ones, they could be more safe haven than not. I don’t know.
For these guys, I would only consider them if I start seeing some EOD prints above the resistance line there, 2k line. That would tell me that money would want to continue to buy the EUR. Therefore, my bias for them is for long. Above that line though. Only. You never know, they could be topping out around here. shrug
Let me start spelling this out. So I can see clearly.
Currencies, with my bias, with the conditions that must happen.
JPY — For long
- Must head convincingly high first
- Must be correlating with other safe havens moving high
USD — For long
- Must see broad risk-off sentiment occurring
- Must see an EOD print above 220 on their chart
CHF — For long
- Must break up above the -1500 level (2 swing highs ago)
- EUR must be moving up also
EUR — For long
- Must rise and stay above their resistance line, 2k line
The GBP.
- My bias is for long
- I don’t have anything for them now. I think their consolidating between the highest swing high there and that 4k line.
- They would really have to move in order for me to consider trading them.
The CAD.
- My bias is for long
- As long as they stay up above the 2000 line, I would trade them
The NZD.
- My bias is for short (already shown above)
- As long as they stay below the 0 line
The AUD.
- My bias is for short
- Waiting for the fall off the cliff (a definite prerequisite)
More simplification.
Possible pairs that are on the table. In a somewhat order of preference.
- NZD/JPY — Short
- EUR/NZD — Long
- EUR/AUD — Long
- AUD/CAD — Short
- NZD/CAD — Short
- AUD/JPY — Short
- NZD/USD — Short
- AUD/USD — Short
- AUD/CHF — Short
- NZD/CHF — Short
I don’t know. I’ve realized this for some time now (and especially because of my basket trend strategy) that we’re only talking about an AUD, and NZD currencies for short. Everyone else looks poised for long. And it seriously drops down the possible pairs to be able to trade. I know the market doesn’t care about that, one bit.
I don’t want to trade the USD for short. Either the JPY for short also. I guess that would explain the unbalance.
We have a new month ahead of us. It’s the second month of the second quarter. What does that mean? Uhhh…I don’t know. I guess we should be aware that we’re heading into the summer months. Things can change. But then again, the world thinks we’re all in risk-on mode. And that it won’t really change. Look at all of the worlds index’s. Their all at all time highs (well, most of them anyway). And look at a lot of the commodities. Their going through the roof. Will all of this exuberance continue?
It surely could! There’s so much money floating around it ain’t even funny. Those who have the control and means in which to affect the market surely have the ability to do it. The risk-on currencies could very well take on another round of buying. Remember, they’ve been on a break lately. They only need a couple days worth of buying to turn the tables. It can happen in a weeks worth of time. I think.
Yeah, this is something I need to remember. If they turn long, well then, I’m gonna be sitting out. That’s all.
But…I got to tell ya, I am wondering if the “Sell in May, then go away” notion will hold true this time. I just don’t know. No one does, really. We just have to see it through.
BTW…I never did look at any of those single pairs up there. Their particular charts. And I’m not going to either. It just doesn’t make sense to me. I’ve mentioned this before, that I could make the case for each one to be both bullish or bearish. So what’s the point? I was surprised on what happened with the NZD/JPY last week. But seen an opportunity, and went for it. And it paid off.
But, I do have to realize that another factor helped out a lot. I talked about this. It’s waiting and seeing how the week is unraveling. And when it gets close to the end, seeing a little change in the trend taking place, surely helps for the opportunity. And I guess that’s what it’s all about. Right? Making the profit.
Not as much as trying to guess what the market will do.
This can be deadly.
It is better to follow, than speculate.
Alright Journal, sorry for such nonsense.
I’ll be in touch (if something goes down, and I move).
Thanks for listening.
Mike
Good afternoon Journal.
Well, here we go again.
I’m moving.
It’s Thursday afternoon, just at 1pm now. I only have about a half hour to tell.
But, I’ve been keeping my eye on the NZD/JPY pair again. And I just pulled the trigger. Here’s the details.
I kind of think we’re gonna see some things fly around here soon. Like, maybe surrounding the 'ol NFP time. We’ll have to see though.
Here’s what’s been going on with these guys. Look.
You probably remember my previous research concerning this. Well, it’s all written up. But anyway, I marked my last trade. It was last week. Mid day Thurs through Fri afternoon, just before EOD. And then you can see how this week has unraveled so far. I marked when this week started, with the line going down. And yeah boy, I do remember on Tuesday that drop. I was like getting that FOMO feeling. You know how that goes, right? Seeing those 1hr candles just keep adding up, red. Cause you know that I’m bearish this pair.
So yeah, it goes bearish again. But I don’t buy into it. Nope. I’m gonna wait it out. And what do you know, here comes Wed. Roaring right on back. See all those green candles moving up?
That’s nice. But just look at that one big huge red candle (like around 16 hours ago). That, is a monster. I think it’s telling. And it ain’t bullish, in my opinion. And it didn’t swing an higher since then. Actually, it kind of reminds me of the choppiness that occurred last week at this time. See it there? Right around the time I got in that first trade.
So yeah, that’s all good and nice, I know.
Well, tomorrow is NFP Friday. Man…I’ve just been thinking that things are gonna go somewhere. Look. I don’t know where. But this just might be the occasion that kicks it off. Then again…who knows? This market isn’t predictable at all.
Anything can happen.
But, I do have to tell ya Journal. I’ve been looking around for any other potential pairs. Trust me, I’m not a fan of doing this.
I’d rather be called the macro man. Surely not the micro man.
Anyway. I’ve been mentioning about a possible falling of the cliff scenario concerning the AUD. And if it happens to be that they start getting sold off, boy, I have found a couple of pairs that I’m watching closely. Check these out.
AUD/CAD
Daily chart.
I think there’s some serious opportunity with this one. Strong CAD. Weak AUD. And I think we’re presently sitting on a cliff right now. Should spell some money.
And the AUD/CHF.
Kind of the same thing here. But, with this one, I would have to see some serious safe haven play going on. Risk-off sentiment. Cause the SNB don’t like to see it go down. But when everyone hops on board, and it’s sliding… you can’t stop that train.
Alright Journal.
Ran out of time.
See ya on the other side of things.
Mike
Good morning Journal.
Well, it’s Sunday morning now. Yeah, yesterday morning I was quite busy. Oh…you know, just trying to figure out stuff. I’m still bothered about a lot of particulars, that have to do with my strategy (what else is new, right?).
But, I’ll have to share with what it led me to do yesterday, during the day time. This was fun. I spent a lot of time doing this research. I broke out the pencil and paper and got to writing a whole lot of stuff down. And guess what was the source of my research?
Yep. Right in here. Babypips.
Probably (no…absolutely is the most correct word for it) the most influential B.P.'s thread that has ever affected my trading. I went back through it. From the beginning to the end. I wrote down the most important things about it. Yeah boy, I filled up some sheets of paper alright. I needed to compare exactly what I do against this fundamental methodological way of trading. Kind of like getting back to the roots of something.
Note…If I were you, I wouldn’t go through it now, cause I’m about to give a highlighted summary of the main points. Now…afterwards…yeah, I believe everyone should read it, and see how it grabs you. It’ll be for some, but surely not for all.
And that’s the thing here, this is not a particular way of trading. It doesn’t tell you when to get in a trade, or when to get out of a trade. The best word for it is methodology. It’s a different type of style of trading. It’s consists of how one should view the market. It is a different way of navigating the market. But anyway, I needed to go back and get the full gist of it, again. And then compare that to what I’ve been doing. Well, comparing it to how I view and navigate the market.
And btw…all this is being compared to my basket trend strategy that I have.
I know I’m missing some things. It’s the tweaks and adjustments I feel I need to fine tune how I go about my trading style. That’s all. I wanted to go back and try to completely understand why this methodology worked for him. Actually I kept thinking, all while reading it, I should compare what the market was doing during this time. It started in Jan 2013. It was in full bloom during the first half of that year. And I have a feeling that the market was probably going through some serious trending stages. Well, without knowing for sure, wasn’t that the time when Japan went through the beginning stages of devaluing their currency? Hmmmm…I kind of think so. And what a time it would have been to be on board with a methodology like this. In fact, any kind of trend strategy would have worked out nicely.
Anyway.
It is a factor and something to keep in mind, for sure. But, there is things to be learned here. Especially when Clint enters the scene. Man…he made me write some serious stuff down. It’s like, when he talks, you better listen. He’s smart. But the thing was, he got quite excited about this way of trading. He got all kind of into it. So it was nice to see how he progressed through it. His thoughts. His suggestions. Boy…it’s almost like gospel to me, of what he thinks. But the thing was, he kept to MG’s script. That’s one thing he didn’t do, alter any part of how to trade this way. He mentioned that several times. He said he would start out trading it in the exact way. And then maybe later on would or could change some stuff about it. Cause remember, this is not telling you when you should get in…when you should get out. There’s no signals to follow. It’s all about guidelines.
Anyway.
I need to get to some points.
What did I get out of this?
This is gonna take some time. To digest.
To find out exactly what I should do about my trading, in response.
Well, how about I start here. I’m gonna throw out to you, Journal, some of the things I wrote down. This is the stuff that I am pondering. This is what grabs me. But I’m not too sure what to do about it. We’ll see how this progresses.
The thread is long. Kind of. So, what I did was consolidate all the important page numbers. This will be like a cheat sheet. Quick table of reference. And what jumped out to me.
Page # 24 — Almost always have a portion of each currency. — If one is performing better, I’m generally adding to it. — If one is not doing so hot, I generally pull back a bit on it.
Page # 84 — Risking 1 unit for each dollar in available equity (not account balance) — No initial setting a profit target — No initial setting a stop loss — “As a result, I’m able to capture all of the trends.” — “If you ever see a lengthy trend in the market, I was in it.” — “That’s what I hold out for. Large pip movements.”
Page # 120 — (Something good)
Page # 219 — I never add to the position or subtract from it. I do base my pip size off my equity and not my A.B. So in a way I’m benefitting when my open trades are doing well.
Page # 222 — I never add to my position. As my pip size is based on my equity, when my existing trades rise, it allows me to enter into new trades with a larger pip size.
Page # 278 — I’m not an Oracle or is my way the only way, But I’m more interested in the overall mindset and thought process. For I feel above all it’s how you view the market that will be the differentiating difference between success and failure.
Page # 907 — In reference to suggestions of adding or subtracting to positions, I’m not against the idea, But I think that would require more work for those that want to head down that road. — I don’t like the idea of starting with half positions with the intention of adding to them. — Now here’s where to me lies the importance of all this. Treat losers the same. If you are willing to add when things are good, then subtract when things are bad.
Page # 874 — Clint enters. From here on out, it’s all his advise.
Page # 928 — I now think that a long position should be closed after the bias on that pair turns to NEUTRAL. — My rules — When a bias is judged to be long, and I’m not in any long position, then go long entry. If I’m in a long position, then HOLD. When a bias is judged to be short, and I’m not in any short position, then go short entry. If I’m in a short position, then HOLD. When bias is judged to be neutral, close any open pair. Stay on sidelines until a long or short bias is judged.
Page # 998 — (Something good)
Page # 1188 — Recap of the rules.
Page # 1197 — Calculating the exact risk involved in this portfolio methodology.
Page # 1203 — "I’m quite sure of one thing: the best way to make your trading more robust — is to improve your win-ratio.
Page # 1210 — "As I see the task for all of us who trade this methodology, there are 3 main parts to each trade, & we have to do a good job (at least, overall, on avg) with each one of them…
- IDENTIFY A SUITABLE TREND EARLY
- IDENTIFY AND GRAB A WORKABLE ENTRY PRICE
- IDENTIFY A BREAKDOWN IN THE TREND EARLY - AND EXIT AT THAT POINT
Page # 1213 — In simplified terms, the methodology involves identifying & entering a valid trend and holding your position for as long as the trend remains valid. Obviously, this requires a solid understanding of trend trading, including successful strategies for — (1) IDENTIFYING A TREND — (2) ENTERING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TREND — (3) IDENTIFYING THE END OF THE TREND. In which that #3 is the basic exit signal.
Page # 1270 — This thread presents a powerful methodology…which can supercharge the trading results of almost any swing trader who is ALREADY CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE.
Page # 1321 — Prerequisite for successfully trading the MG99 Portfolio Methodology. — Summary : In order to be successful trading a portfolio of swing trades, I believe you must first become successful trading individual swing trades, one at a time. — So the take-away message is this : FIRST, develop your skill as a swing trader; then take your swing trading to the next level, by employing the portfolio methodology.
(And, in anyone is interested, I come on the scene at post # 1229. In Dec. 2013)
That’s nice, I know.
And here we are Journal. Me…you…my Lord & Savior…and that last take-away message.
Am I worthy?
To move on?
Honestly.
Yeah, I’ll be honest with you, alright. The first thing that comes to my mind is that I am in no way successful. Consistent. If I were, then why can’t I brag about an ever increasing account balance? Sure, I’m a perfectionist. I’ll never relax the reins. But the question is whether I have honestly satisfied the criteria laid out by Clint (page 1270).
Well, the only thing I have going for me is that I post just about anything and everything that I do, trading wise, in here. I got records. I’m not just a talker. Whatever I do in trading, I can (have) produced the proof. But have I? Have I produced the proof that I am a consistently profitable swing trader? Well, Journal, I guess you’re the one to answer that. You can go back and see that I have good months, and bad months. Well, and I guess that begs the question of what is actually considered consistent. It is a subjective question.
Ok. Well, that’s what I first think. I am not worthy. But then I have to really think about it. Reality. What is the real reality of my trading? I’ve been trading for some time now. I have experience. Probably more than most people, who have spent at least 8 years on the subject (cause you really need to add up all the hours actually spent).
All things considered, I’m gonna have to say that I am worthy. To move on, anyway.
Let me get to the real problem of my trading.
I need new rules for TAKING PROFIT.
Journal, this is what I’m presently working on.
Check this out. This was occupying my time yesterday morning. I took some pics.
This is the latest standings of my basket of trades running. Currently.
You can see my 9 trades that are currently running. At the top is the 3 USD trades. Middle is the 3 AUD trades. Bottom is the 3 NZD trades. Also you can see exactly when I got in them (little arrow on them all is when). On the daily charts.
And why did I pick these pairs? Cause I believe :
- USD is trending low
- AUD is trending low
- NZD is trending low
- EUR is trending high
- GBP is trending high
- CAD is trending high
Remember, TAKE PROFIT is the issue I need changing.
I trade a basket of trades. Initially, I’ve treated these as one trade. All for one, and one for all. I look at these as one basket. How much increase or decrease to the a.b. that they all are doing, as one entity. Not as individuals.
This needs to change.
It’s a shame to see those 3 CAD trades (right side 3) just continue on without taking any kind of profit. That’s all I’m saying.
Here’s a different view of those 9 trades. Look at the right side, pips.
There you have it, Journal. That’s what I’m working on. I have nothing else to say about it. Cause I’m not quite sure what the answers are yet. I’m even questioning if the process of how I come up with determining these pairs to trade, to begin with, is right.
Then I go to MG’s methodology. Can I compare what I do to what he does?
— His method—
- Scan across all 28 pairs
- Looking for trends - on each of those pairs
- Objective - to be a part of a long trend - and on as many as possible
- Treating each pair separately - entering and exiting per specific situation
- Adding additional sizes as the trend continues (simply by opening new positions)
- Eliminating any pairs that turn non-trending
— My method —
- Determine if a complete currency is trending via aggregate calculation
- List the trending high currencies & the trending low currencies
- Tradable pairs are matched up - high trending against low trending
- As long as both currencies are respectively trending, their running in the market, in a basket, treated as a whole, not separately.
- Mostly interested in what the account balance is producing, as opposed to what the individual trades are doing.
- Entry & exit of trades are directly correlated to EOD aggregate trend determination only. Therefore, the pairs are not individually analyzed.
Again. Can I compare these?
It’s almost like comparing me to the rest of the world. Right?
What he’s doing is simply looking around at any possible trends. Actually, is all based off of price action. I’m not coming from that viewpoint. My premise is making a determination off of the aggregate, and then going by that. It’s the one chart that tells what that one currency is doing. Trending high. Trending low. Or not really trending.
Look. I can accept this. It’s not mainstream. I don’t even know if anyone has even done this. But…this is who I am. This is how I see the market. And I happen to think it’s an edge.
Now. How I come up with exactly who to trade…this is a different story. It’s just one way. Sure, I picked this way. I kind of thought it was the simplest. But I’m definitely rethinking this now. I might be realizing that I might be putting on too much conditions on which pair is in, and which is out. I know the market doesn’t care about that. In fact, I know the market probably doesn’t even care about who’s trending and who’s not. Well, at times, anyway.
What would another way be for me to this by? How about the criteria being as long as one currency being technically trending, as opposed to both being trending. That would open up a little more possibilities. I don’t know…I’ll have to explore this.
But my main problem, which I have to settle, is the taking profit part. Actually, I had a thought of solving this by using MG’s method. What if I just start using his precise numbers of sizing units (which is different than what I’ve been doing…which is double that amount). And then if trends continue I can add more positions, as opposed to more sizing. Just completely another position. With the one to one unit to a.b. amount. Know what I mean?
So. I can make it that as long as it’s trending, I have at least a stake in it. The longer it trends, the more positions I should have in it. And the more diminished it goes in a trend, the less positions I should have in it. Maybe that will take care of the take profit part. See? It’ll force me to either scale in or scale out. Seems better than the all or nothing scenario that I’m doing now. Actually, I don’t really have a predetermined take profit action in place. I’m just hoping that down the road something will trend long enough to generate increased profits to the account balance. See?
I’m gonna need some defined times for me to take profit. Simple as that.
Alright Journal, I think I talked enough.
This does give me some things to go on. Well, follow up with the ideas presented. Know what I mean?
Thanks for listening.
Mike
P.S. — Concerning my NZD/JPY trade.
It’s still running. Presently, in the negative. It’s ok though. I’m not fazed about it. I’m not gonna touch it until, at least, I’m in profit (don’t you worry about that). Remember my goal with that particular strategy?
You know it.
But I’ll keep you posted on any moves with it. In the meantime, it’s gonna run. Looks like it needs the time for it to.
And if there’s anything for me to learn about it, also, I’ll share as well.
Good afternoon Journal.
Well, I told you, if I were to move you’ll be the first to know.
I moved.
I’m talking about my single trading strategy. I came in here and showed you exactly when I placed it. It was back at post #590. Sorry. I’ve just been reading that post. I need to put it on here, cause something else happened that’s also interesting.
Well, it took some time, but my NZD/JPY trade finally went my way. See? Now, how hard is it to just hang in there and hold out until you hit pay dirt. Well, that time was today, for me. Take a look.
I jumped earlier this morning, when I had a break at work. The triangles are where I got in at and where I got out at. But I took the opportunity. Actually, during this time that I jumped out, I was looking at another pair. And so, after I jumped out of this one, I immediately got in on the other one. All I cared about here (NZD/JPY) was the being in the positive.
Oh, I remember. I jumped out at 8:30 am (cause I have until 8:32 until I resume my bus route). Man…the market was moving, at that time! I’m sure it was some economic indicator. For the US and/or the CAD (cause that’s the normal time it occurs for them). Well, here are some of the details on that trade.
- +25 pip gain
- +5.84 % to the account
- duration = 6 days it ran
- had 275,000 units on (2.75 lots)
Hey, I was happy about a positive trade. Remember my one and only rule?
Every trade must result in the positive.
Well, so far so good.
And you’re probably wondering what was the other pair I was looking at, right?
Take a guess?
Yep.
The AUD/CAD (short).
And that’s the reason why I cutted and pasted that much of that previous post. Cause I did have my eye on that one.
Well, guess what? I believe it was time for the falling off of the cliff.
So, what I did was, after exiting the NZD/JPY trade, I entered the AUD/CAD trade. No kidding. I did it in a matter of 2 minutes, no lie (cause my younger kids are waiting for me at their bus stops).
And then, when I’m all done with my morning time runs, and work, I have a couple hours before I go back (as is the case right now). Well then, I’m like, wow. I don’t need any more pips on this one! Looks good to me! I’m in, and I’m out. Just like that. Here’s the details I have on this one.
- 270,000 units on (2.7 lots)
- +45 pips gained
- +8.67% to the account
- duration 1 day (about 3 hours or so)
That’s nice.
And that’s 3 successful trades so far.
And now I’m out. Nothing running. Anything else would be too risky.
All this is on my Anchor Trade III strategy. The one-pair-at-a-time trading.
Boring. I know.
For my excitement trading, boy, are they running great today! Man…I must have every currency running their trend in a great way today. Look.
Now, up on the right, that’s the total going for my basket of trades running. I have 16 pairs running. +768 pips for 12 of my pairs. And my 4 JPY pairs are at +206 pips. Then add them up for a total of 974 pips on the day for my basket of trades. Being up for a total of 8.02% today. Good day today, boy.
I guess if you wanted to see exactly who I got in my basket, this is what it looks like.
You’ll see that pretty much everyone is trending according to what the market is doing today…all except the USD. Their very positive today. It’s ok though. I’m making it up with the other currencies.
Alright Journal. Got to run.
See ya next time.
Thanks for listening.
Mike
Good morning Journal.
Yes, I know, it is late in the morning, sorry.
But…I know, I know, you’ve been busy, right?
Yes Journal.
Very.
I’ll sum this up with a favorite line, from a movie. This is my absolute favorite quote.
Tony Stark (Iron Man) said this on the last Avengers movie, “The End Game.”
"I figured it out."
And his wife says, "You figured out what, Tony?"
“Time travel.” As he is staring out in amazement.
And she responds with, “That’s amazing…and terrifying, at the same time.”
Well Journal, that’s how I feel about now.
But look. I know I probably thought this many times in the past, but now, I’m just gonna say it again. That’s all.
I had help though. My brother Bob, who is an absolute genius (an engineer, with an extreme intellectual mind) helped me find the correct formula, in excel, in order to run the back testing data, that I’ve been fervently wanting to see.
But…it’s my strategy. This is proof to me that I’m on the right track, anyway.
Let’s see. Where do I begin?
You know that I have a few strategies floating around. But this one concerns my “MW methodology” one. It’s the latest one that I’ve been posting in here. You know the origins of it, because of MG’s portfolio methodology post. All that is written up only in the last couple of posts.
Well, after some tweaks in the last week, I’m down to the very last details of it. Honestly, I’m not completely finished with it, but surely enough to be trading it and getting some kind of results. But, I was able to do the back testing for it. And what I got so far is this years (2021) results. And, of course, it’ll continue on from here.
Boy I can’t wait to do last years back test. Cause what a year we had, right?
Let me unravel the strategy.
Wait. This should catch you up on most of it. Remember how I said this?
The heart and soul of my strategy will hinge on this big factor. It’s the starting point. It’s my edge. I truly believe if you find the correct aggregate currency trend, it’ll filter out the losing trades.
And now, I’m gonna go through this. All this will be what’s currently going on in the market today. And at the end of it, you will be able to see what I’m trading. And why I’m trading it.
This will be my step # 1.
What’s the aggregate trend, per currency?
Each currency will have a trend. Either trending high, or trending low.
No more non trending states. I must have a bias for up or down (there’s good reason for this). And well, whatever technical trending state it is in, that’s my bias. So, if ever you hear me talk about my bias, I get it from this trending state.
Let’s start from the top.
The USD.
FYI…there’s roughly 20 trading days in a month, just in case you’ve wanted to match this up to a month. And in this case, you can see that it was pretty much ever since the beginning of April (20-20-20) that this ‘trending low’ state really started.
So. The point here is, the USD is trending low.
And a quick explanation of exactly what that chart is, is the aggregate (sum total) of the daily pip count of the USD against the 7 other currencies. Basically, this gives you the macro sentiment of what the USD has done compared to all of the other currencies. Remember, I don’t care what one particular currency pair is doing. That doesn’t give me enough information, whatsoever. I need all of them, summed up in one chart. This one.
Let’s continue on with step #1 of the other currencies.
The EUR.
Trending high.
Ever since around April first.
The GBP.
Trending high.
In fact, last week it broke up and out of the consolidation period it has been going through for some time. See? We’re talking about technically speaking here. It very well could have broke down and changed trends last week, but it didn’t. It continued on with the high trend that it’s been doing all year long.
The CHF.
Trending high.
Ever since around day 65 it has been trending high. This was a complete change in trends since the year started. Cause it was a down trend up to that point.
The JPY.
Trending low.
And let us (me) remember some lessons with this one. Until it changes trends, stay with the technical trend. It could go on forever!
The AUD.
Trending low.
Ever since day 39 - 40. That drop turned it, cause it broke below the support area (between the 500 - 1000 gridlines). No more higher highs since. The floor has been sinking lower and lower. And btw…do you remember me telling you, recently, that I think the AUD is gonna fall off the cliff? Well, I think the beginning’s of it started to happen this past week. See it there? (day 93)
The NZD.
Trending low.
Ever since day 56. Do you see how it could never break up and out of that place where it dropped out at? Oh, though, it did come on up to the inflection point like 4 times. Just couldn’t do it. It reverted back to the low trend state.
The CAD.
Trending high.
At the beginning of March (day 40) it started the climb. It trended high. But then that trend broke down (in the 70’s days). As soon as it broke up and over the 2000 gridline did it technically start trending high again. Which brings us to the present time.
That’s step #1. Here’s a summary. Of all that.
Step #2.
Pair up the trends, since we trade 2 currency’s to a trade. Right?
The table underneath there is the specific asset being traded. If it’s green then it’s traded long. If it’s red then it’s traded short.
We have 16 pairs here. This is what’s running in my portfolio basket of trades.
All that satisfies the :
- What currency pairs I trade
- When traded (constantly running in the market)
- Why I picked these
Now. There’s other aspects of a trading strategy.
- Taking profit
- Scaling in and out of positions
That’s, in order to minimize the amount of risk.
I’m working on those specifics.
I did take a lot of profit off the table last week. But re entered with larger sizes. We’ll have to see what happens, moving forward.
So.
Want to see some back testing data?
This exact way of trading, I have results. For this year, so far.
Remember, each currency has a specific technical trend. And each day of the year has either 16 pairs running, or it’ll be 15 pairs (4 x’s 4 = 16, or 3 x’s 5 = 15). Trending high against trending low states.
Let me show you an example of how I come up with the results. This’ll be last weeks results (since it’s pretty fresh in our minds).
In excel here, I got my cursor on the sample formula, in which all of the other results are pretty much the same. See the solution? It’s that which I needed to figure out. Anyway. What do we have here? Each days results. Pip results. Every single pairs’ results (28 pairs). From biggest to smallest. And the order in which they are stated in, is for a reason (it’s not what you’d see in the market). The first position is who was positive. The second position is who was negative. Those results are in the middle column. And my trading results (all who’s in my basket of trades) are on the right column. It’ll either be 16 of them, or 15. And then, on the bottom, is the totals. Don’t be concerned about the % under that (it’s just a measure of the total, which is on the left).
But, the middle column’s bottom total result will show you how much absolute total combined amount of pips the market produced that day. The only real use this figure can show us would be what kind of volatility the day produced. Comparatively. Like…if the market really moved a lot, it would be a large number, compared to other days.
I combined the monthly results. Here’s what this month is showing so far.
I just started this. One week into it, on an account.
How about a look at the entire year.
Now. If I would have traded this way since the years start, then these are the amount of pips I would have accumulated, to a trading account. Notwithstanding scaling in and out of positions. Profit taking along the way. Etc…
It’s just pip accumulation. Plain and simple.
Weekly results on the right. Total results bottom corner.
So. I’ll tell you what I see. For this system.
- Do have some losing weeks
- No losing months (yet)
- Healthy amount of pips on a good month
I’ll tell you what this means.
It is profitable to follow the trend.
Not every day is a trending day.
And not every week is a net trending week.
But, so far, every month is ending in the positive.
I cannot wait to run the numbers from last year (2020). We all know that we had some real doozy months. It should be interesting to see. Plus, it’ll all go towards what I can expect from the system. Cause, after all, that’s the purpose of back testing. You want to see how much draw down is possible. What would be average. Even, over the longer term, you want to know if it’s better than a 50/50 chance. Random. Right? And if it is, then it’ll be considered having an edge.
I’m gunning to answer these questions.
— How much faith can I have in this system?
— What are the potential extreme’s I could see?
— Maybe even get a sense of when the trending days will be in contrast with the counter trending days — that dynamic
Alright Journal.
Sorry I spent all day on here.
Much breaks throughout this entire post. Sorry.
Well, I am so looking forward to the end of the school season. I got 3 weeks and 3 days left. Then I’ll have the summer off.
Then, I’ll be kicking it into high gear with my business.
All I know is that I’ll be having early mornings, and much time throughout the day to be working on stuff. Boy I can’t wait.
Thanks for listening Journal.
Mike
Hey Journal.
Happy Friday.
Well, I moved.
So, I’ll give you the details of my trade.
This is on my one shot strategy.
I never did tell you when I got in with this one. So. Sorry about that. But it’s over now.
It wasn’t all that big of a deal. I guess if there’s a lesson in here, I guess it would be to just wait it out. That’s all.
The AUD/CAD.
Short.
Why? Cause my bias for the AUD is for short. And my bias for the CAD is for long. On the daily time frame horizon.
Trust me, this is not what makes me arrive at my bias’. But, for those who look at daily charts and stuff like that, well, this is what that particular pair looked like.
Yeah. That’s nice.
Anyway.
So. I got in May 13. About 6 am.
This is what I was looking at, on my phone.
This was last Thursday. I kind of was hoping this would be a quick buck…
But it didn’t happen that way. Friday came, and went. Still nothing.
So. All I’m gonna do is wait it out. Simple as that. However long it takes, so be it.
See where I entered? On the left side? Hourly time frame here.
So…it’s a waiting game. Lower swing highs, so at least I can see the light at the end of the tunnel. But then it got me into some profit, but I missed whenever that occurred (I’m not a fan of watching the dog-gone market).
Well, well, well. Today something happened. I got to see the light, finally, on that last green candle. Looks like the damage was done already. And so, it’s time to exit.
Again. I don’t have any rules on this strategy of mine. Only one.
It must result in the positive. You don’t get any simpler than that.
So. That’s all good and nice. I know.
Here’s some of the details on it.
- 270,000 units on it
- +18.1 pips gained
- +3.23% profit
- held for 6 days
And no. I didn’t set any take profits. Stop losses. No risk reward nonsense. I just don’t believe in that stuff (that’s so overrated). I’ll be the last person standing, to box in what the market should do and don’t do. Sorry.
Anyway. Looks like this weekend I need to look around and see any other potential set ups (for as much as I hate looking at the particular pairs…I guess I have to, eventually…in regards to this strategy of mine).
I also took a lot of profit off the table, this Friday afternoon, in regards to my other strategy, MW portfolio one. I should do some explaining on that one, cause I think that’s wayyyyy more interesting, than for whatever a single pair trade could do.
Alright Journal. Thanks for listening.
I’ll be coming in here in the morning time.
It’s the weekend!!! Yay!!!
Mike
Good to see Mike take a shot a short term - and nice to see the exit.
Will be interesting to see if the algos force price back up half way - anyways tell Mike his posts are brilliant.
1 Like
Good morning Journal.
I got to tell you though, Journal, this portfolio strategy I have is working out very, very nicely. Let’s just say that the more I think about it, and see these results (whether during the current trading time or as I do more and more back testing), the more excited I am getting. I mean, this is it. Everything that I have ever worked on, thought about, tried to figure out, all are found in this way that I trade. It’s like home. You know, that place where you’re most comfortable. Safe. The thing you trust the most. And it all has to do with who I am & how I think.
Let’s look at how this week went. I got a shot that about explains everything. Mind you, this is only my second week on it. Sure, I was trading very similar strategies like this all along. But I definitely believe this is the final version.
I guess someone could dispute whether my currency determination stated trend is accurate or not. I guess it all depends on in what context you want to see it in. Sure. I could be wrong. Off. But…I don’t think so. If you don’t know by now how I come up with the particular currency’s determination, then you’ll never know. Let’s just say, it’s accurate (and I would go so far to say it’s undisputable).
So then, look up there at the top. That’s how the market resulted every currency, for a complete day, correlated to one another (compared to, related to). In %'s. And so. What we have in between what the currency’s trend is and how the market resulted — is an aggregate view of whether the market went with the trend or not, and by how much. Green means a trended day. Red means a counter trended day. And all I did was simply added them up, accordingly.
Now, why would this be important? Well, I’ll tell you why (cause I was often confronted with these questions). See. First off, you want to know how effective your trading is. And by answering these questions, you can actually get quite close.
- Did you follow your plan?
- Is your strategy dependent upon the trend, or not?
- How closely aligned is your currency bias with what the reality is?
- Do you know when the currency’s trend is changing?
- Is the duration of your trades accurate?
My point here is this.
— You have to know what the market is doing. Trending or not.
— You have to know what has been the currency’s trend.
— You have to know when a currency’s trend is changing, or not.
— Your trades need to run according to the correct time span.
— You need to know if your strategy is matched up with what the market does.
I believe I can answer these questions by the way I monitor the market. And also by the way I monitor my trades. Needless to say, when those two things match up, it should spell profit. Pips.
That’s nice.
Talking about pips. That reminds me of how I’m currently taking some profit out of the market lately. Look. I haven’t totally figured it all out, like a drawn up plan. But I’ve been working through it though. I’ll share what I got so far.
I am taking profit.
I kept thinking to myself. It just doesn’t make sense to add on more positions. When, at the same time, I can just take out the profit that I have accumulated. And just continue doing what I do. Which is to have my trades run in the market, according to their respective trends.
So. Like I said, it’s been 2 weeks now, with this system. And at each week, I was confronted with taking some profit. This is a shot of when the first time I did it.
Well, my thought process was…Take the profit! I mean, it’s there. See it over there on the right? I arranged it by highest to lowest. Also, you can see that on every pair I have 10,000 units on it. And that’s because I started out with 10,000 of an account balance. The rule is 1:1. That’s 1 unit of a size to 1 dollar of available account balance. Your gonna want to remember this, moving forward.
Well, all I did was simply exit out of all of those pairs, from the top all the way down to the EUR/JPY one. That left me with 4 pairs still running below water. And then what? Well, I get back in with them. Why? Because nothing has changed according to what their bias is. I am not seeing any changes. Therefore, I’m gonna continue on with them. But with a different position size. Take a look at my available account balance. It’s under the Net Asset Value. That’ll be the value that I go with, for the 1:1 size.
Well, let’s move along the timeline. Here’s the next shot.
This is 9 days later (yesterday). But, I must of missed when I took some profit on some of the USD pairs. You can see under the UNITS column those ones that are sitting at 11,700 units on them. See, whatever the available balance is at the time is, is what I go in with.
So, it was at this time that I took some more profit. I mean, doesn’t it make sense to scrape it up? I think so. And look what I’m gonna go back in with. Net Asset Value = 12,100. And that’s what I did. Well, for the ones that are in the white (in the positive).
So what really happens here? Well, my actual account balance is moving up. I guess it’s like I’m padding the bottom line. My account.
This is what it looked like as soon as I did it.
All of the pairs in my portfolio have not changed. Therefore, you can say that, so far, I haven’t had a losing position yet. The proof is in the units column. Plus, being up over 20% in two weeks is quite impressive, if you ask me.
I can’t expect this to continue.
But, as long as the market continues to trend, maybe these results will continue.
We’ll see.
Well Journal, the only other thing that I’ve been up to, is the back testing.
Remember, how I really want to see what last years results were? Well, I’m getting there. This week I only was able to get the first 2 months done. I share the results.
But I do have to say, I was super surprised to see how the month of Feb turned out. I’ll have to explain why. But take a look.
The top 2 are Jan. Left one is the total amount of pips the market produced.
The top right is what my trading results, in pips, will amount to. The totals are in blue, for the month. But, I got to show you why I am soooo very amazed, that for Feb, I should have been so much in the negative. But I wasn’t. That’s about break even.
It had to do with the EUR. Their trend tracking that month.
But first off, I have to tell you about a rule I keep. This is a fundamental guideline I have to keep. This is the rule.
The trend will not change until the week is ended.
Therefore, the trends will be weekly determined. No back and forth within a week. Cause I believe that’s how the market actually works. To determine a correct trend, you have to give it the full week, to play out. This has proved extremely helpful. Except for this month. With the EUR. Take a look.
This was taken at the last day of Jan. 2019. All up until this time, I had the EUR trending low. You should be able to see why. So. All of Jan. was trending low. But, what happened in the last few days here made me switch it to trending high. My reasoning was the 2500 gridline. That was the last support/resistance area. But it broke up and over it. So, I am calling this trending high. Therefore, the EUR will be entering in the month of Feb going high (that move from very low to high is way too much…and I consider that changing trends).
And now, since I won’t change trends until the week is up, let’s see some of this progression.
One week into Feb (5 days) and this is the result. It came back down to the S/R line. So, I’m calling it still trending high. If that last day or two would have turned down, then I would have called it the other way. But no. So, their trend determination is high still.
Now we have to go one day at a time. You’ll see why.
This is EOD Monday results.
It broke down. Below support.
Well, the week is still young. Can’t make any changes till the end. See. This is the only way to really tell what the market is doing.
Then comes EOD Tuesday.
Well, just step back and see what this looks like. And it surely ain’t an uptrend. But, we got rules for a reason. Still trending high.
Then comes EOD Wednesday.
No that hurts. It broke down and kept on going.
All I’m doing is praying, at this time (and it’s only Wed.!)
Then comes EOD Thursday.
More low.
EOD Friday.
Ok. Well. I am right, that the market will tell you what it wants to tell you by the end of the week. Right?
But, to keep the integrity of how I do things, I kept to the plan. In my portfolio, I kept the EUR long this entire week. I needed to see the results.
Well, If you haven’t guessed by now, I changed their long trend to short now.
There’s 4 weeks in Feb, '20. That was the second week. But, let’s see what my actual trading results were for that week.
All results are under the shaded column, cause those are all my pairs that are in the portfolio that day. Not bad. I can’t believe it. I guess I need to remember, that I have a lot of other currency’s on the line also. Well, let’s move on.
I switch the EUR currency to trending low, now, going into the third week of that month.
Here’s the full weeks results. 5 days.
Yeah, it figures. Comes back on up. And this whole time I surely cannot change their stated trend to bull, right? Technically…no way. It’s all a down trend. Actually, ever since months ago. So therefore, going into the last week of that month, I have to keep with their trending low state. Have to.
This is the results of that week.
I still can’t believe it. Every day I was in the positive, except a slight negative on Monday (-80). I’m sorry, but this is all honest stuff. How can I be making pips, aggregately, when I’m so off on one particular currency’s trend?
shrug ---- But, I’ll take it.
And I’m starting to trust my system much more.
Let’s move onto the last week of Feb. I’m sorry, but I’m still determining that the EUR is on a down trend.
Here we go. One day at a time. Again.
Monday. EOD. Up it’s going.
Not good for the home team.
Tuesday EOD results.
Still moving up.
Sure, technically, it is still on a down trend. Cause all it has to do is turn back down.
Any day now.
Wednesday EOD results.
Well now, we’re talking we’re at the very end of the month. You should know by now that all trend plays should not be considered. It’s profit taking time.
Nothing I can do about it now. Got to see it through.
Thursday EOD results.
Talk about getting a hurting. Whoever is short the EUR is quite stupid by now.
Well, that’ll be me. It’s been straight up. Like…straight…up!
Friday EOD results.
And just when you think it absolutely cannot go any higher. It does.
Let’s see what kind of beating I took in the trades department.
Now that’s more like it. Losing on any of those days would only make sense to me. Tuesday was the only positive pip ending day (343 pips).
I’ll show you that break down of my Feb trades, again.
But look. I don’t want to throw out my rule about keeping the trend for the entire week. Cause I can show you way more instances of where it kept me in the trend and avoided changing when I shouldn’t have. I’m telling you, it’s true. But in this instance, I’m thinking that there should be some kind of exception. Of some sort. Honestly. But I don’t know yet. But, this is as far as I’ve gotten (so I can’t show you what March has done yet). I’m gonna get it soon.
Or should I… change anything about this rule?
After all, I didn’t really lose much on the account.
I will continue doing the back testing accordingly. Cause remember, I do believe the market will show you precisely the direction in which it wants to take something, by the end of the week.
Well, all I know is that in the following month, March, things really flew. In the market. So, this will be very interesting on how it turns out.
Look Journal, you don’t have to worry about me, about being objective in stating what the trend is. That’s why I’ve chosen to stick with what’s technically true about a trend. Surely not what I think will happen. But what’s really happening. And come to think about it, I think I prove that very thing time and time again. Finding what the correct trend is.
And that’s what I’m about to do now.
I’ll prove it by going through, again, what the current trends are, on each of the currency’s. These can’t be argued. And if it can be, I’ll be debating that to myself, anyway.
Here’s where they all lie.
And I’ll show you why that is.
From the top.
The USD.
They’ve been trending low since April 1st.
The EUR.
Started to wobble a bit, a couple weeks ago. But nope. Back up on it.
The GBP.
Same thing here. But some real sideways action going on there. But in the last couple weeks, made it quite clear. Back to the very long high trend this year.
The CHF.
Is keeping with the upward bias, since that definitive move on upwards. Higher highs. No real swing lows. It’s taking awhile, but the bulls have the bias.
The JPY.
I don’t have to say a word about these guys. A five year old can tell me what the trend is.
The AUD.
Journal, you know that I’ve been telling you how this has the downward bias. Its started with that very large drop, just left of middle. And then I remember the next noticeable drop, around 56 - 57 day area. I felt it. And then I said to watch falling off the cliff. And sure enough it happened, at around the 92 - 93 day area. Well, to date, it’s continuing. The bears have the upper hand. We’ll have to see how long this will last.
The NZD.
Same with these guys. They just could not over take the 0 line, after the fall. Again, the bears are in control.
The CAD.
Well, it’s wavering a bit now. But, as it stands, it’s trending high. And that’s what we go with, whatever the market is saying right now.
Everything can’t be that easy, right?
We need some kind of challenge around here.
At least we have the CAD will keep us on our toes.
I don’t know how any trader can not want to know this stuff. I think it’s imperative to know what the sentiment of a currency is. Knowing, and seeing where the money is going is essential in our field. If we do not become experts on knowing what has already happened in the market, concerning any particular currency, then we are setting ourselves up for failure. There’s no excuse. Cause all we have is past data. Nothing else. And well, we are fortunate that there are trends taking place all the time. Cause if there were none, we’d all be in real trouble. Know what I mean?
Now. When these trends start to change (and they will eventually), then we got to be careful. We do things like ---- minimize our risk, by either trading smaller lot sizes, or even waiting things out on the sidelines. The market is not always this clear. Trust me.
And then when things really fly, like they did last March, we need to be prepared for that also. Volatility. How do we adjust for that?
Well, that brings me to the end. Cause I plan on running March 2020 back testing data. This definitely will show me what I can expect to see regarding my strategy.
You have to admit, I didn’t get hurt that bad during Feb’s results, even due to the EUR’s massive fake out.
So anyway. If I encounter some interesting stuff, I’ll surely show it to you. Maybe by tomorrow morning. We’ll see what happens.
Alright Journal, thanks for listening.
I’m on it.
Mike
2 Likes
Good morning Journal.
Ok. Here we go.
I’m not gonna talk.
(OK…maybe afterwards)
But, I got the results. My back testing data. From last year. I got caught up through April. Therefore, I can show you '20 up to April.
So. On the right side, going down, is what my strategy would have produced.
And I am very impressed.
Take a look at the month of Mar. Boy…if I was a professional trader…you know what I should have done? The first 3 weeks of the month go by. Trading the way I’m supposed to. Following the plan. Staying the course. And then see that after 3 weeks of turmoil, what would my results be, at that time?
+12,565 pips.
I would see that we are getting close to the end of the month. A little over a week left. Now. Wouldn’t you think I should just sit out till the end?
Sure. In hindsight, we see everything. And I really don’t know that, pretty much, for the rest of the month that it will be downhill from there. We just don’t know this.
On the one hand, we usually know that approaching the end of the month spells a mean reversion of what the trend has been. Right?
But look. I can’t be making strategy decisions based on what happened in one month, of history. It’s just interesting, that’s all. But I can remember this scenario, for the future. If we encounter an extremely volatile month again, and we’re getting close to the end of the month. And we are up like 3 times the amount of pips we’re supposed to be…well then…maybe we can consider sitting out for the rest of the month. And then to resume the plan at the onset of the next month. But…do you see all what would have to happen? So many things to be lined up. Very improbable. And that’s why we should just remember the scenario. Cause you never know. Right? And also this is why we run back testing. To see the possibilities, that have ever occurred. Cause you never know, right?
I wanted to make note also, of the left side data.
Those are the complete possible number of pips that can be had in a day. If you added up all of the 28 pairs and got every single one correct, that would be the result. Which is impossible. Like, far from possible. No one on this planet gets that. Or has ever gotten that. But, the reason for that number, is just to know what Mr. Market was willing to give out. It’s to know what the volatility was for that day. Some traders want to have an idea of what’s the average daily range for a specific pair, or even currency. Yeah, that data is out there. It is good to know. Well, this would fall in line with that also. What does the market normally output?
Well, I know (you actually think I don’t keep track of these things?).
This year so far. 2021.
You got the averages for each day of the week. And then if you wanted to know per any day. A little over 1k.
Look. This is macro stuff. And that’s all what I’m about. Not only do I know what a complete currency is doing, I know what the market, as a whole, is doing. But to look back at that month of Mar '20. That was 3 times the average, for the entire month. A little over 20k per month is around average. So, it was something we haven’t seen in a while. Boy would I like to know when the last time that happened. Well, this is the reason why I’m continually adding onto & building up my very own historical database. Cause I want to know. Plus…I seriously doubt anybody else does this very thing. This is all proprietary. In fact, I believe everything I do is proprietary (I don’t follow anybody).
That’s nice.
Let’s see. What else can I show you?
Well, while I’m on this thread, I’ll just throw out there what this year has produced.
Now these results are awesome. I mean, in all of the 9 months of data collected (shown above), there hasn’t been one losing month. I find that very interesting. But I’m sure it’s out there alright. Sooner or later I’ll find it. Remember, I’m in the business of building up data bases.
In any case, at least this is telling me that the strategy should be profitable. Right? We’re talking minimum. And that’s all we want. Over time, I would like to see my account balance climb. And I’m talking about over a period of months and months. Alright, how about in the course of a year? Can I expect an account balance to increase?
I’m gonna have to say, so far so good, with this strat.
See Journal why I’m very excited?
Remember this?
Alright Journal.
I’m gonna get back to it. Cause this is probably the only thing I’m gonna be occupying myself with, moving forward. It’s building up of my data base. Or should I say to continue on with my back testing compiling. Same thing.
Thanks for listening.
Mike
3 Likes
Good morning Journal.
It’s the weekend! Yay!
Not only that, but it’s a 3 day weekend. I’m happy.
And not only that…but I only have 7 more working days till the summer break. Boy…me and the kids (the young ones on my bus) are counting down the days. I just can’t wait.
That’s nice.
Anyway. I just got done with one more month of back testing. I’ve been working on 2020 (last year). I’m caught up through Aug, now. And I’m continually getting surprised. Well, let’s see. Take a look for yourself.
Left side going down is what the market produced, for a total amount of pips that can possibly be had, of all 28 pairs totaled. Right side going down is what my strategy produced. Daily totals. Weekly totals. And in blue, the monthly totals.
Sure I’m happy. I haven’t had a losing month yet. That goes for this year, to date, also. It just seems like I’m waiting for the other shoe to fall. Know what I mean? But…in the meantime…I’ll continue on with it.
Well, I do have to tell you what happened this past week.
I made a move.
I don’t know…I’m not totally upset. But we’ll just say that I’ve learned some things. Predominantly about my strategy.
I need to trust it more.
Let me explain.
This is how the month is rolling out, to begin with.
What do we have? Well, we have a great month going, so far. Right? See on the right side? The weekly totals are adding up. And now we’re basically going into the last week of the month. And to be honest with you, you know what I’m thinking? That we absolutely must have some retracement to happen to the trend, before the month ends. I’m sorry, but this is floating around in my head.
So, we have a couple days go by.
Results are —
Ok. So, a couple EOD’s come and go. Nothing I’m really concerned about. But see, this is why I keep track of that left side data. It shows me volatility. Look. Monday and Tuesday are showing what…very low numbers. Boy…no kidding Journal…I was like…something definitely is gonna fly on Wednesday. That’s how the market does it. It’s a winding up, for an unraveling. Which way is it gonna go…who knows?
Don’t forget, we’re at months end.
And I’m like, thinking, that if we have a counter trend move, it’s gonna probably be pretty bad. And that would spell the AUD, and the NZD to go high (cause they’ve been trending low lately). Well, I woke up on that Wed morning. And my first look at the market stunned me. I knew it was gonna happen. That’s it, I’m out.
This is a pic, from my phone, for EOD Tuesday (for comparison sake).
I keep track of every EOD account balance (just for progress sake). But remember, I started out at 10k, on May 10th. So, I’m up pretty good for the month at this point. Then, my very next look at the account was this…
Yeah, well, it didn’t take long for me to call it quits.
That’s when I unloaded everything.
So this all went down about an hour after the London session got under way. I just kept thinking…“I need to protect the account. I’m not gonna let all that hard work go out the door. Let’s keep a good month, a good month.” I figured the rest of the day is gonna go that way. And usually it does.
Anyway. I am happy.
Let’s see how the day ended up.
Left column is the list of pairs, with their results (middle), in order from largest to smallest. And the order of them is important, cause whoever is first is the currency that had the increase (likewise, whoever is placed second is the losing currency).
My trading results are on the third column (right most one). Well, that’s not totally accurate, cause I jumped mid day, remember? I did find out the difference of pips from when I jumped. I did 99 pips better than that result (-699).
In any case, you should be able to see how the NZD really had their way these last 3 days. But not really with the AUD though. And how about the volatility? Basically it doubled those last 2 days on that day (1340).
Ok. That’s the market for ya. Right? It happens. Usually it’ll be either Wed or Tues for the turn around. But all I know is that I’m out. My account is safe. And all I have in mind is that I’m gonna stay out till the month is over. Look. Being up 11.54% is awesome. I’m not complaining at all.
Let’s take a look at how the rest of the week went. Shall we?
Hmm.
What do you see…
Well, the market produced even more volatility than the day before. It goes from 1340 to 1386 (more pips available). And then my strategy goes ahead and produces a lot. Basically it makes up for what happened in the day before, and then some! 867 pips. And even Friday goes the same way as the trend also. Yep. Tack on even more why don’t ya.
So.
What do you think I’m thinking right about now?
Well, all I can do is shake my head.
What ever happened to end of month flows, counter trending? Right?
Not this month. Apparently.
It went back with the trend.
Oh well.
At least my account is safe.
Ok. So. What’s my lessons here?
Well, it’s another example of why I can trust my system, right?
Look. I can show you examples of it going the other way (the way I thought it would). Look up above. In the back testing of last year. Look at Mar 2020. That last week fell apart. Actually, this is what was going through my mind. Maybe a repeat of that. But nope. Man…even the Feb prior to that. Same thing.
Oh well. I’ll just chalk it up as a system I can trust. That’s all.
And maybe I should just stick with it, like, no mater what.
Well, at least I didn’t fall trap to the FOMO mistake. I’d rather err on this side of it. It’s better to have a safe account, secured, and in fine shape. Than getting whipped up by the market. It could have happened.
I have a good system (strategy). And what it’s telling me is that the market does trend more than counter trend. Cause all I’m doing is following the trend. But I do believe I’ve found the most accurate depiction of what each currency’s trend is. Sure, everything in the market is subjective, but you can’t argue with the numbers. It’s all in how their arranged.
Well, let’s go through 'em, then.
We need to look at the NZD first. Let’s see the progression they had this week. I’ll show you how you can get fooled, real easy.
The NZD. How they look coming into the week.
Yeah. Downtrend.
Then EOD Monday. Results.
Comes back up. Retracement. No biggie. Normal. It’s still within the trend.
Tuesday EOD. Results.
Still within the trend confines.
Wednesday EOD. Results.
This is that big day. Now how’s it look?
Still within the confines of trending?
Changing trends?
Well, I’m gonna do exactly what I do when I back test. I have a rule.
I will not change the stated trend until the week ends. The reason is that I play the week. I absolutely need to see how the week turns out. So…whether it technically changes or not, it doesn’t matter. I will be short the NZD at least till the end of the week. But, I do have in mind a place where the trend would change it’s state. The resistance level, I’m thinking, would be at that latest swing high at around day 95. And we’re pretty much there now. Let’s see how it plays out though.
Thursday EOD. Results.
As it stands, I’m thinking they still might have a chance to change the trend. Possibly. But again. I need to see the week through.
Friday EOD. Results.
And now it’s clear.
This tells me that I will, absolutely not, change it’s stated trend.
Look. It came back down under that resistance level I deem important. I mean, you can even probably go as far as to say that the resistance level could go up as far as the 0 area (where it previously toggled a whole lot). And still be technically trending low. Right? But I don’t have to worry about that now. I believe if they wanted to change trends, this would have been their opportunity. But no. The bears had their way. Not the bulls. It’s not time. Yet, anyway.
See how you can get fooled? All that rising up during the first 3 days of the week, I’m sure, got the bulls pretty excited. In fact, it’s because they had a hawkish interest rate decision day at the beginning of that Wed. The market seen it coming. The lead up, to it, showed. Right? But the fall out afterwards didn’t follow through. The market is not convinced of a change in trend yet. That’s all.
Well, while we’re at it, let’s see how the AUD is doing. I’m just gonna show you the latest.
Remember the cliff?
I do.
It’s still falling off of it.
The downtrend continues.
And see? If you had their bias ever since way back there, at that precipitous fall, you would have had better luck trading the AUD short, than long, in any time frame, since.
Since we’re at it. You know what I find interesting? A lot of analysts are commenting on how the commodity market is flying sky high. Oil. Copper. Lumber. Trust me, many others. Their even talking we could be coming into a commodity super cycle. That’s simply an era of extremely overvalued prices. But how come the AUD and the NZD’s have not demonstrated an equal or similar trend? Their down. Not up.
I don’t know. In the past, I’ve always known that them two always showed very similar dynamics as the commodity market did. Right? You can’t really say that now, regarding them. Sure. China is a factor. But I’m not sure if they are what’s causing the depressed state of these guys. Maybe they are in some way, I just don’t know.
I think the world is much more complicated nowadays.
Isn’t it good that we don’t necessarily need to know why?
As long as we can see what the trend is, it should be enough.
Let’s move on. Sticking with the commodities…
How about the CAD?
Yeah, they get a bit tricky. I thought they would be joining the other 2, but look at what happened in the last 2 days of the week. They came back up to the support level. Now, if they fall somewhere below the 2,000 level gridline, then yeah, I’ll be calling them trending low. But no. The market’s bias for them is up, not down.
The USD.
Still trending low. Sure, not falling further anymore (lower lows), but as long as they are not making higher highs then I stick with the prevailing trend, which is down. Taking a breather now, that’s all.
The EUR.
Trend is up. Nice and long. Too easy.
The GBP.
The trend is up, after that consolidation period.
This year has been absolutely been awesome for the GBP. This is not rocket science.
The CHF.
Technically up. Inching it’s way ever so slowly. Smoothly. Not rustling any feathers. Shhhhhh. Don’t tell the SNB!
The JPY.
Anyone getting tired of making money off of these guys?
Well, that should be the case.
Too easy.
Alright Journal.
Gonna cut this.
I’ll be back this weekend. Got tons of stuff to go over.
Thanks for listening.
Mike
Good morning Journal.
Oh boy. This isn’t gonna be easy.
This was something I said the other day…
Well, the other shoe did drop.
Concerning my strategy.
I made a mistake. On the back testing.
On one hand, sure, I’m happy. Cause there ain’t nothing I want more than truth. At all costs. But, on the other hand, I cannot accept errors, in my numbers. I mean, I do not tolerate mistakes. That’s why this has taken me a day to get over it (kind of…and still working on it).
This is probably something you don’t know about me, Journal. I run a lot of numbers. Daily numbers. Back testing numbers. Data base building. Analysis. Etc. And when I do these, I know how easily it can be to make a mistake. Just one number can make a huge difference. The point is, for myself, I don’t want errors. Journal, I just cannot express to you the height and depth of exactly how much this means to me. I mean, that’s why I have things in place, as I execute, to mitigate making errors. Even double and triple checking is very common with me. And whether they’re simple typing errors, adding errors, omitting errors, or whatever. Simple mistakes just shouldn’t be. There’s no excuse. I don’t care.
Man…this reminds me of something that happened a couple years ago. When I got my taxes done. The woman from H & R block was doing this for me, as I’m sitting there at her desk. And that’s all it is, just numbers (something that I can relate to). So, I was watching her as she was transferring the numbers from my W-2 into her computer. And then there came a point when I said, “don’t you think you should check your work?” And of course she agreed. So she stopped at that point and went back to check them. Sure enough, and it didn’t take long either, when she found a mistake. Needless to say, I didn’t join in with her laughed-it-off response.
Anyway.
I made a mistake.
But look, it wasn’t one of those simple, inexcusable kind. It was one of those there’s a lot going on here with excel, which requires much detail paying attention to. Still. I was upset. And at the same time I was quite happy cause all I want is the truth. You know? No matter what. Well, I found this mistake when I was on the month of September ('20). And you know what that means…I got to redo that entire year. And then this year also!
And so, while I was correcting it all, man, was I being humbled. My strategy was turning out to be nothing so special. Was going through a lot of emotions. Angry. Disappointed. Deep sadness. And then, you know, I got to bring it to light in here, for you (and all) to see. Am very embarrassed, doing this now.
Well, I guess that’s where I belong. Down low. I don’t know…maybe no one is paying attention anyway (I’ll never know). But you know what…I’ll just pretend that this is between me and only me. Well, in that case, I can get over it. It just makes me dig a little deeper, that’s all. But I know one thing, I, absolutely, cannot let false numbers go by. And that’s precisely why I have to come on in here and correct it. I’m gonna set the record straight.
Here’s last year, up to Sep.
Let’s just pay attention to the right side numbers. That’s what my strategy produces.
So, I got some average results, per each day. Also one complete daily average.
That +35 daily pip average tells me that I have a positive daily expectancy. Over the long run. Also it’s better than random, which is 0. I would consider that an edge.
And then if you would add up every day, that total comes out to be 6,815 pips on the year. Not as good as I originally thought, but I have to accept it.
Oh, and yes, I will have losing months.
Ok. So. Here’s this year.
Well now, this makes all kind of sense. I knew April was a bad month.
This makes me want to dig deeper into finding out exactly why I would have good and bad months. The things I would be looking at is this:
- How accurate are my stated trends?
- How much does the market deviate from the trend?
See. One of those things I have some control over. And one thing I absolutely cannot have any control over. Well, that’s in regards to having a trend following strategy. But I think it would be beneficial to know this.
That does remind me of some numbers that I do follow. In fact, I don’t think I ever showed this to you. Well, now is the time for it. Check this out.
The question is, “Why the bad month of April?”
All of the answers are up there (yeah, even the CHF who absolutely crushed me in the first couple weeks).
In the top table, that is what the market produced. Daily results.
Then, in the bottom table, I have which trending state each currency demonstrates. The days being matched up.
And in the middle of those 2 tables, are the results of whether the market trended (green) or counter trended (red). Now, how do I come up with that particular #?
Let’s do April 1st together.
- USD = stated trend high (green) but resulted that day being -1.82%. Since that doesn’t match we have -1.82%. Put that on the calculator.
- EUR = stated trend high (green) & resulted as 1.90%. That matches. Therefore we add on the calculator 1.90%.
- GBP = stated trend high (green) & resulted as 1.47%. That matches. Therefore we add on the calculator 1.47%.
- CHF = stated trend low (red) & resulted as 0.24%. That don’t match. Therefore we - .24% to the calculator.
- JPY = stated trend low (red) & resulted as -1.64%. That matches. Therefore we +1.64% to the calculator.
- AUD = stated trend low (red) & resulted as 0.27%. That don’t match. Therefore we -.27% to the calculator.
- NZD = stated trend low (red) & resulted as 2.91%. That don’t match. Therefore we -2.91% to the calculator.
- CAD = stated trend high (green) & resulted as -.91%. That don’t match. Therefore we -.91% to the calculator.
— We only had one positive week, the third week.
— Of the 22 total trading days, 9 were trending and 13 were counter trending.
— A grand total of -32.90%.
Well, let’s compare this to this month of May (which is a very good one).
— That’s 4 positive weeks
— Of the 20 trading days, 15 were trending and 5 were counter trending.
— A grand total of +74.93%.
Now. Do you see what I’m talking about?
Big difference huh?
Can I do anything about this?
I don’t know.
Let’s remember…We’re looking at the aggregate currencies here. Right?
Well, my trading consists of these pairs coupled up against one another. Only the trending high against the trending low.
And you seen my results earlier.
But here it is again.
Yeah, that’s nice. I know.
Well, looks like I better think about when I’m gonna get back in the market. Cause remember, I’m out still (remember that mistake?).
— Start fresh for the month of June?
— Wait for the week to unravel, then slide right in?
— Wait until after NFP Friday, for direction?
— Are we gonna have any trend changes around the turn of the month?
I don’t know, those are some of the things I’m thinking about.
I did start this whole exact strategy back on the 10th of May. So, maybe in hindsight this was a good thing. But look at what I missed. Up there at that table. 668 pips were gained in that first week. Hmmm…that’s not all that much.
Yeah…when I think about it, I’m not gonna be in such a rush. I got to see how this week unravels. I mean, I need something to see first. Cause we’ve been in an unchanging sentiment lately. I proved it for you all right there. The currency’s haven’t really changed their trajectory. The market went with the trend. And I’m just wondering if there will be changes coming soon. And if there are, then you know what that spells, right?
Bad news.
Minus pips.
I’ll let you know what I end up doing Journal.
Thanks for listening.
Mike
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Hi Mike,
There may be more peeps paying attention than you think. It takes a lot of guts to admit mistakes. I use Excel extensively, and in many cases it is for building investment cases for IT change in my day job. That could be a few thousand or a few million of savings, so like you I am paranoid about building mistakes into formulae. I have two ways of checking for mistakes. The first is that if there are two ways of adding rows or columns, I use both and end up with the answer twice. This ensures that all formulae that make up the intermediate calculations are without error. The other way is something I learnt from a Texan I was working with in the Southern North Sea about two decades ago. He called it a SWAG estimate. And I use it often. It stands for a “Sophisticated Wild A** Guess”, and I have failed fast often by applying this. If your SWAG shows you are going to make a million dollars in three months, it is extremely unlikely to be based on the right arithmetic. Best of luck with your continuing search for the truth.
As a way of encouragement to continue your pursuit, did you feel like Sheldon at 1 minute 20 seconds in this short clip?
Sheldon Meets Stephen Hawking - The Big Bang Theory
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Good morning Journal.
Let’s see. Where are we gonna go today?
How about we take a look at what’s going on in the market. Cause I’m still not in yet.
But after seeing yesterday’s numbers, I have an idea of what I’m gonna do. So, let me unravel all this and show you what I’m thinking.
Well, we have to start from what’s been happening already. The trends have not changed for quite some time now. Like, over a month now. Let me prove this to you.
If this is true, then the monthly running % changes should just about be the same, right? If no trends have been changing then we should be able to look back at this month and should be seeing these 2 tables look pretty much alike. Let’s take a look.
Remember, this is how the month progressed if you simply added each of their daily total % to the previous day. Aggregately speaking, of course. And so, what can we see by this? Well, it was the GBP that was the most bought currency for that month (+17.37%). And sure enough, just above, you can see that the GBP’s stated trend was trending high, the whole time. And then, we have the EUR. They were the next most bought currency that month (+12.69%), and also matched with their stated trend being trending high.
Next, is the CAD. You can’t see it, but May 3rd was the first time they started their trending high state (the last two weeks of April they were in a bear market, trending low). And so, it does match, their trend. They were more bought than sold. Also, they were bought more than the 5 other currencies below them. So…it matches.
Ok. So. The USD, and the JPY are a no brainer. Trending low states. They matched up. Then let’s look at the AUD. They ended up in negative territory (-6.33%) for the month. Since May 12th, technically, they ran a negative running %. The bias is down and it did match. And the NZD showed something a little similar. But more mixed than anything. Now with these 2, you should be able to see that at the beginning of the month they were wanting, and showing, some strength, comparatively. Remember, NFP Friday was on the 7th. Since then, it was all down hill from there. They both demonstrated a trending low state. Matched. And the CHF was pretty much in the middle, with more of a bias on the up side. Therefore they match their trend state (high).
I think I made the point. Right? No real trend changes. And well, that should spell some profits, as long as you traded along with the trend, that is. It was a good month.
But, another point that I always make is, that trend changes like, very much, to occur around the turn of a month. I’ve said it many, many times. How do I know this? Cause this is what I do best…keep track of the market. A lot of times it coincides with the end of the month profit taking. And all the way up through NFP Friday. So, we’ll just call it around a week prior to a week afterwards. But look up there, with the Comm brothers, in May. You can’t tell me the market was thinking about the idea of them taking over the buying. But it quickly fell apart.
Ok. That’s nice.
How about this month? Are we seeing any kind of trend changing occurring?
And this has been what I’ve been watching for, and waiting for, before I jump in with my trading. Let’s look at how it unraveled…all the way up through NFP time.
The top table is the month running. The bottom table is each days results, all by themselves. It’s the daily picture of what happened.
Well, Monday was the last day of the month. It was a holiday. And not a lot of movement occurred. Then comes Tuesday. Back to work. And how does things fly? Well, looks like the AUD has been bidding up. Actually, Mon and Tues. Comparatively speaking, they were (the bottom table will show you that). That’s the only mentionable thing I’m seeing so far. Again, the movements aren’t really going anywhere. The average for the most bought currency, for a day, will be between 3.7% - 4%. We’re nowhere near that.
Moving on.
Well, sticking with the AUD, what happened with them? They took a breather. That makes all kind of sense. And still, low volatility occurring. The CAD took the top spot. And the NZD took the bottom spot. Well, speaking of the NZD, they definitely were being sold off, more than anyone else these last 2 days. And then the GBP took a U-turn from a good sell off to some buying.
Remember, the market is getting ready for NFP Friday. Are we seeing any kind of lead up to it? Well, so far, I don’t think so. What’s the USD doing? Not much. Let’s see what Thursday brings us.
Oh yeah. Now we got some action (volatility). And who we talking about?
The USD. Look there, coming in with +5.86% that day. Yeah boy, that’s over and above the average top spot for a day. Well, we should know that NFP is centered around the USD. The market is calling for a good report. So. One one hand, it seems like the market is getting ready for some Dollar buying. That’s what the market does. It’s a forward thinking machine that gets priced in beforehand. Right?
On the other hand…it is true that market does this thing called buy the rumor, sell the news. Basically, the money is being made on the way up to the news. But then when it comes out, even if goes the way it’s supposed to, the market takes the profit, which means there will be a lot of selling. So…this is some of the stuff that I’m thinking beforehand. But, we have the USD going up. But also the AUD, and the NZD are being sold off. Really. That’s the only other thing mentionable.
Honestly, I really didn’t know what to think heading into NFP time. The closest thing I could make of it was more of a risk-off sentiment. The JPY and the CHF aren’t showing any kind of clues. And no one else is, either. So then, we just have see what happens. Trust me, I’m not gonna risk my money. It’s a crap shoot at this point.
Well, I still believe the most important piece of data comes down to what the EOD price is. But, I want to get a sense of what’s happening during this NFP time.
And so, the number came in. The data showed below analysts forecast. But not all too bad. Like, 650k predicted, and 599k it came in at (something like that). I mean, I don’t know, nothing real earth shattering. How’d the market react?
I had 2 minutes to view it, at that time. Basically, the market didn’t really move all that much. But the real picture comes later on afterwards. So, on my mid day break, I checked in with the market. And this is what I captured.
4 hours later.
The USD was sitting at -3.96% down on the day. Total amount of pips was -384.
The EUR was sitting at -1.34% down on the day. Total amount of pips was -205.
The GBP, and CHF about break even.
The AUD up a lot. +4.61% on the day. With a total of +499 pips.
The NZD up a good bit. +1.75% on the day. Total of +187 pips.
The CAD down. -2.38% on the day. Sitting on -236 pips. They followed the USD.
The JPY was being bought, +1.96% on the day. +240 pips.
And if you want to know, those totals numbers on the top right, would be if I were still trading my portfolio. I would be down -542 pips, in my basket. And don’t forget, that tells you how the market trend is faring. The market is not going with the trend today. Right?
Well, what am I gonna do? I mean, I can’t do anything until around EOD anyway. I just wanted to get a feel about any trend changes that might be coming.
Seeing any?
The Comm brothers might be. That might be the only thing I think could be possible. Anyway. I took one more pic just before I had to go. Any changes to what we’re seeing?
Can’t really tell. You know how the market traverses back and forth.
Well, how about the very EOD pic. I took this just before I ran the numbers.
4 hours later.
Nope. All the same. This is where they end up.
Let’s put this in the proper perspective.
Daily.
Well, remember me saying about the buying the rumor, selling the news?
I’m thinking this is what happened. It’s a complete 180 from the day before.
I thought long and hard about this. I’ll tell you what I’m gonna do.
This is concerning my trading. And how I properly navigate my chart reading.
I’ll go down the list. From no changes, to changes.
The EUR.
They are trending high. There’s nothing to tell me a change from this. Therefore, their stated trend will not change.
The GBP.
Same thing here. Trending high. Bias still holds for being bought, than anything else.
The CHF.
Trending high. They are not dropping. The bias is to the upside. And nothing tells me otherwise. So no changes here.
The JPY.
Well, they leveled out. Not dropping. But…we’ve seen this before. Right? Therefore, until we see something major, for a turn upside, their trending status is LOW. And that’s the way it has to be.
Now we’re gonna get into the trickier ones. I’ll have to show the USD now.
I have a secret weapon I’m gonna have to administer.
Look. As this week was unraveling I kept thinking (especially after Thurs run up)…this USD is trying to make a trend change, for higher. Just look at the last couple weeks. It carved out a floor. No more lower action. Even winding up (a shaking out of the sellers) time. Then comes Thursday. Broke up out of that higher. I thought for sure that NFP was gonna continue on up. But no. Continuing on with the trend.
But concerning my trading. And chart reading. This is my secret weapon. I’ve used this extensively with my back testing. It works.
Look at that -1000 gridline. I believe that is a resistance line. It got broken. And now has come on back down to it. It’s called a break & retest thing. Surely, for a trend change, this is possible. It would make sense. I mean, even look up above. This hasn’t happened this year yet. I’m talking about a consolidation, wind up, and then a trend change. And so, getting back to my secret weapon.
One more day will tell me.
This happens, more than not. And it’s saved me many times in the past. I believe in it. It’s the principle. I have to wait this out for one more day. And one more day only. I believe the market will tell me, at EOD Mon results, which way this wants to go. If it’s a continuation of the down trend, than it’ll move lower. Under that resistance line. And on the other hand, if the market wants to change trends, it’ll shoot up from there. Get it?
I will not be making a determination until EOD Monday. Therefore, until then, it’s still considered trending low. But…concerning my trading…I’m not gonna get into the market until EOD Monday. And then when that time comes, I will be, getting in.
There you have it.
And while I’m here, this will also go for the AUD, and even the NZD.
Take a look.
The AUD.
Same thing here. We have a resistance line at the -500 gridline area. Therefore, I believe if the market wants these guys to continue on down with the prevailing trend, then it’ll drop from here. If the market wants a change in trend, then up it’ll go.
This is what I believe. And I’m going with it.
If I’m wrong, then I will learn something from it. That’s all.
But moving forward from here, that’s how I will place my trades. According to what happens at EOD Monday. And then, I will have to keep this determination for them for the entire week. I cannot go back and forth. This is my rules. So, whatever happens at that EOD is what I will state for the rest of the week. I got to draw the line somewhere.
Here’s the NZD.
Boy, they like to make big moves. But as it stands, their trending low. And it’ll take quite a bit for them to change this trend. I would say it would have to go up and above that last swing high, for a trend change. That’s all.
And then the CAD.
Trending high. Nothing is telling me of anything different. Sure, you could call it sideways action, or even a ranging condition, but for me, it’s more of an upward bias than a downward bias. I’m not playing the middle ground. That’s nonsense. Things go either up or down.
Ok now.
Remember me saying this last week?
Well, I think I went through this whole process quite nicely. I correctly waited it out.
And because of this weeks data, I need one more day.
My money will go on the line, for the start of Tuesday. And I will be riding it out till at least the end of the week, without fail.
It’s my strategy. And I believe in it.
But what would have happened if I would have simply followed the strategy all along?
Here’s the results of that.
Well, if you count Monday through Friday, sure, I would’ve been positive.
I don’t know. By being out, I didn’t really miss out on a whole lot. Right?
And I got to show you my latest data table. I absolutely love these numbers. Whether you want to see my trading results or not, it doesn’t matter. This is how the market sized up every pair.
How every pair turns out for the day is there in the first and second columns. And whichever currency is first is the one getting the profit (positive). My trading results are on the right column (if I was in the market). And I hope you can see how this way is absolutely the best way to go about finding back testing results. Right? And currently there are 16 pairs in my portfolio basket. 4 trending high against 4 trending low. 4 x 4 = 16. That’s why only 16 are being counted on the right column.
And look at that volatility tell. Left table, up above. See how the market works? It just drops and drops. Until that Thursday. Then bam! Off the market it runs. Boy…that was even more than what happened on NFP Friday. And if I might say…I have a feeling about Monday. I think the volatility will be high. Geeez. Look back at last months volatility. The Monday after NFP (May 10th). Yep. That’s a lot. 1745 pips the market had possible, at days end. So…we’ll see what happens.
Alright Journal, that’s what I got going on.
I’ll try to come in here tomorrow am. I always have stuff to talk about.
And again, thanks for listening, Journal.
Mike
Wow, a 5-year old thread! Really curious how’s it going so far. I hope I also get the courage soon to share my trading journey to people. Wishing nothing but the best for you!
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Good morning Journal.
And thank you Cham.
Yeah, I guess this thread is getting a bit long.
I don’t know, I imagine we have people who pop on in here on a moments notice, just to see a whole bunch of nonsense. And I’m sure we have those who are new to the game (seems like a lot) on a daily basis that search around and find this thread, and simply have no idea of what I’m talking about. And I do think there are a couple people out there who actually have been around for some time and like the readings.
To those people, I cannot express my gratitude for your interest in my walk. I can only hope that we can all learn something along the way.
Actually, for absolutely anyone, who reads my thread I am deeply humbled. But look, I do get a lot out of this (nonsense). It helps me unleash a lot of my thoughts, all the things that I am going through, and it’s like a release. Kind of like how we feel better just venting to someone. Know what I mean? Who doesn’t want (need) that ear around. I surely do. Well, to be honest with you, I really love typing also. That’s another reason why I do this stuff. Sorry.
I’m sure it’s not easy to know what kind of person I really am, and exactly how my trading is doing…as Cham has conveyed. I mean, that is the nature of things like this. Especially as it’s very difficult to go back and see this non stop trading jargon from a long time ago. Where does it begin? Where did I come from? Where, along the journey, am I at now?
But, on the other hand, I’m not gonna rehash stuff every time I come in here, right? But this is kind of like what I do. For a couple years now, I’ve made it a common occurrence to come in here at least one time on the weekends. I’ll give an update on whatever I’ve been working on. So at least I don’t have to think about what to type. It’s simply whatever I’m currently going through. Good times. Bad times. I even like to type away about whatever I think the market is up to. Trust me, doing that stuff… is like my most favorite stuff to talk about. It doesn’t compare to anything else (well…nothing will substitute my love for the Lord…HE is my happiness).
But this thread has covered my entire journey. Well actually, this thread started 3 years after I embarked on this discovery (Jan '13). See, I absolutely knew this was gonna be for the rest of my life. That’s why I thought this thread would really be something, one of these days.
But, I do remember having some real good times in here (B.P.'s) before this thread got started. I had some good friends back then. We had our own thread and everything. Talk about fun! I wouldn’t trade those times for anything! I will forever be grateful to those guys for the times we had together. Man…we talked about some awesome stuff. Market stuff. Actually, I think it had a lot to do with macroeconomics. Cause that’s what really interests me. I think it was a thread on the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, that comes out every Friday.
Man…what good memories. I think there was about 4 of us who were pretty tight.
Remember that Peterma?
I guess we can’t bring those days back.
Sorry about that.
Anyway.
Well, your gonna have that. Times change. People get pulled one way or another. Well…except me. This thread of mine won’t stop. But…let’s see. How could I put some kind of summary of where I’m at now?
- I’m on my 8th year now.
- I know how to trade, successfully.
- I can trade consistently.
- I am operating my own trading business, just not in the full time setting. Swing trading style.
- I would consider myself only about half way there. God will take me as far as I’m gonna go. When I’m off the earth, is when I’ll be done. Until then, you Journal, will see all the progress.
- Being such a perfectionist, you’ll never see me arrive. All I can say is that I will only get better.
- Oh…and the most important thing about my business. It is not about money, whatsoever.
This is what I consider success.
— Being able to support myself (self-sufficient) from a business account
— Be able to, over time, continually grow a trading account
Look. Just to be able to survive and stay afloat in the market, I believe, is saying something. It is true, that I don’t care about the money. But you kind of need to know how to use it properly, grow it continually, and be that good steward of it. Know what I mean?
I think that the most happiness I get out of all of this is … THE JOURNEY.
This is fun!
And I believe true traders…true business people…can understand this.
Let’s see…some kind of overview of what happened in this thread?
So far, within this thread, my Journal has seen me operate this business on a definite confined part time capacity (when I was working full time in the shop). And that was spending 25 hours a week, in it, that way. Early mornings before work, and hours on the weekends. Quite some years this way.
I was mentored, Exceptional Trader. Bucked up quite a bit for this. Learned an enormous amount. Mostly regarding the business aspect of it all.
I operated this business as full time, for one entire year. It’s all documented in here. I thank God for the opportunity, absolutely. This was at the 5 1/2 year mark. But I wasn’t ready. Couldn’t do it. Learned a lot though.
And now, I operate this business, well, let’s say it’s like something in between those 2 extremes. Cause my full time job (school bus driver) is not full time. It’s a part time job. Therefore, I have ample time throughout a day that I get a lot of work done.
Look. This is where I’m at now.
I don’t know…maybe a lot of new traders might think this is absolutely nuts to spend so much time (years) on something that can’t sustain it for a living yet.
Right?
Maybe, just maybe, I’m someone who’s missing it. Absolutely, I could be stubborn, a one-man-show, ignorant of doing things the main stream way. Whatever would take me there, just don’t want to hear it, kind of person. Just different. And someone you don’t want to emulate. Yeah…someone who’s missing it.
I’m sure there’s traders who would be much more worthy of following. And I’m sorry. But I just want to carve out my own path.
But I do know one thing. I will trust in the Lord with all my heart. He’s my master. My destiny. Therefore, I will be content in however long it takes. And I will continue to enjoy the journey. With HIM. And with my Journal here.
So.
To all the new traders that come on by here…my advise would be…
- Try to understand and learn whatever you can from here
- Don’t be afraid to carve out your own way
- Be prepared for a lengthy journey
- If your sole purpose is to get rich, you’re not gonna get there this way
- Know who you are (a trader…business owner…or a dreamer to be rich)
Well, thanks for listening.
Sorry for all that nonsense.
Mike
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Thank you Mike, you’ve changed my point of view. Really appreciate this journal. When you mentioned being rich, my perspective is that everyone who has day job, family and and doing trading is rich in heart. Financial status is changing everyday on better or worse… 
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Good morning Journal.
Let’s talk market.
Well, I remember last weekend at this time, I really had the sense that Monday’s EOD results would tell me in which direction some of my trades should go in. Cause I was out of the market, still. But wanting to get back in.
Let me show you what happened.
I was mostly concerned with what the USD was gonna do. But, let’s take this one step at a time. This is what I was looking at on the weekend.
The USD.
If you look closely, in the latest, this is sitting right on a resistance level, -1000 gridline. It got broken last Thurs. And Friday it came back down to it. And now I need to know which direction it wants to go in. I believe that Monday’s EOD will show me. If it bounces back on up, then I’m gonna make the USD change trends, from low to high. But…if it drops back down, then I’ll just continue the USD’s trend back to low. And all this, of course, will determine which direction my trades will go in. Let’s see what happened.
Monday’s EOD. For the USD.
What happened? See it there? It dropped below that -1000 line. Therefore, this told me that the down trend will continue (this is all what’s going through my mind during this time). Ok. Well, that’s it. I’m gonna continue stating the USD with the trending low state.
Don’t forget. When I do this, this is what their stated trend will be for the rest of the week. I absolutely will not change it (whether on my tables or concerning my trades). I stay committed with this. You will not see me changing anything as the week plays out. This is a major rule for the way I size up the market. And also the way my trades play out. No back and forth stuff. Cause that’s not how the market works. It works on a weekly basis.
Well, there was only one other currency that I had this dilemma with. It was with the AUD. I needed to see Monday’s EOD result, in which will show me what to do about them. Let’s look at them like we did with the Dollar. This is last weekend.
See that -500 line? Back at around day 100, it leveled out there for a couple days, then dropped down, and then came right back up to it. Then dropped back down again. Then came back up to it (again). And well, that’s where we’re at now. Therefore, I believe Monday’s EOD results will be the tell of where it wants to go.
What happens? Well, it goes higher. Right?
And well, I stick to the plan. The AUD will be changing trends from low to high.
It’s not all that convincing, but I have to go with the plan.
So. This is how the week is gonna play out. And what trades I will be in.
Well Journal, this is what’s gonna happen for the rest of the week, whether it turns out to be true or not. Cause I’m not gonna change anything here. My trades will run…with no changes to them. And my trend determinations will not change either. Now, that will occur, if there should be some, on the weekends.
Like right now.
Well, let’s see how the week played out. Concerning these supposed trends.
So, I’ll go through the currency trends individually, and at the end you’ll be able to see how my account was affected. Cause remember, I trade a basket of trades. This time around I’m in with 15 pairs (as you see above).
Let’s go with the AUD. This is my only change (I haven’t made a change in quite some time, actually). I’m kind of nervous about this. We’ll just have to wish it north, that’s all.
That’s Tue EOD results. It came back down, just a little though. No big deal. And technically, it’s still above that -500 line. And that tells me that it is more bullish.
Wed EOD results.
Wow. Talk about slow moving. At least I’m not getting hurt here. And technically speaking, it’s still above that line. So I’m glad about that. And also, I’m glad this is not dropping back down. It seems supported. Sure, not really changing to higher ground yet, but not falling back down either.
Thurs EOD results.
Nice. Moving in the right direction. I’ll take it.
But…we do have one more day to go. Remember, the market plays the entire week. Here we go with Friday (just give me a high move, will ya).
Friday EOD results.
Nope.
It went down. Thankfully by not too terribly much.
But this is where we’re at now.
Now what?
Looks like I’m back to where I started at. It’s gonna be another repeat of last weekend, looks like. Well, this is what I see.
I’m at the inflection point again. And you should know what that means.
I was referring to the USD when I said that. But the principle is the same. I gotta wait it out one more day. Which means that I will not change anything until EOD Mon. I will still be long the AUD until then.
Well, let’s look at the USD (all in the same manner as these guys). But, instead of a change in trend, they resumed their down trend, remember? It’s up above.
Here’s the USD, Tues EOD results.
Ok. Well, I definitely was hoping for another drop down, but no. It came back up a little. But no real big deal. Got to see the week through. Remember, I’m short here.
Wed EOD results.
Ok. Not looking good, but nothing I can do. At least it’s not flying too high, though. But definitely in the high side territory.
Thurs EOD results.
Now that’s better. And look, it actually went below the line. That’s where I need it to stay below (for a low trend). Come onnnnnnnn Friday. Break down!
Friday EOD results.
Ok. That’s it. I give.
See how you have to play the week? It’s the entire week that’ll tell ya where it wants to go. And it told me, alright.
I got to switch the USD’s trend from low, to high now. It’s been awhile since I changed their trend. But it’s what I got to do. Surely there’s none of that waiting a day stuff. No way. This has been coming down the pike. I mean, just look there. They’ve been carving out a floor for the past few weeks now (since around day 97). Then last Thursday they get that blast upward. I believe that was a sign, for sure. But you know, the market has to go back and mop up and clean up all the sellers. Shake 'em out. It’s a typical trend change, if you ask me.
But, you see, it’s becoming clearer now. And I will forever believe this. That the market will show you in a weeks time. It’s the correct perspective, I believe. I don’t think it’s a secret. The USD is heading up. Now…if it doesn’t, that’ll surprise me, big time. But the market has the final say. We shall see. Right?
Well, I think those 2 currency’s were the only interesting ones this past week. Therefore, I’ll show you how all this affected my account balance.
This in one of my favorite tables. This tells me so much of what’s going on with the market, along with my account. Take a look.
Ok. Each day has a column. From the top to the bottom. And I’ll explain.
The top table is how the market resulted that day. Individual daily results.
That strip right underneath it, is just a tell of how the market trended. If it’s colored red, then it was a counter trended day. If green, then a trended day. And how much % of that. Daily %, also the weekly %.
See. That is important. You, absolutely, need to know how the market traded that day. Did the market go with the trend? Or did it go against the trend? Think about that. You might think you’re the problem, with the direction you have your trades going in. Especially if you’re a trend trader. But if the market goes the other way, and you see negative pip results from you trades, you just might be thinking you made a bad call. But that’s not always the case. Cause if you are correct in the way of the trend, then you are right. And the market is the one that’s not right. But see, over time, the market usually comes back around to the trend. My back testing data shows this.
That’s nice.
Anyway.
That second big table there is what I believe their stated trends are. That is what I believe the direction of the market should be doing. It’s what they’ve been doing. Therefore, I believe it’s not subjective, but objective. It’s facts. Plain and simple.
Then underneath that is what my trades are. You can see how I was out of the market around the turn of the month. Then just got in on the 8th (EOD 7th). Also, if it’s green then it’s long for the pair. If red, then short for the pair.
Then underneath that is a strip. That’s my account balance. I started this out at $10,000 on May 10th. And so, every 5pm daily, I take a screen shot of this.
And then the last small table is my trading pip results. I just like to keep track of every aspect of my trading. This is the net results of the amount of pips all of my trades result in.
That’s all good and nice.
Let me tell you why I think that next week is gonna rock and roll. I’ll give you a clue.
Volatility
This is what this week looked like.
This is how every pair turned out. Strongest to weakest. Only positive results. The left and middle columns. My systems results are on the right column.
But let’s just look at the volatility aspect. I cannot believe how low it’s been this past week. Here’s a break down of those numbers.
Look at the left side table. Compare this weeks numbers to what the average is. You can see what each days average comes out to be. Also a total amount.
Every day comes in just about half as much as it should be. Right? I mean, the market is not moving!
I bet you next week it does.
I’m gonna look back at this post and copy and paste this statement.
And for what I can see, I think the USD is gonna break out higher. And that should have some real affect on the other currencies. I’m not too sure exactly how, but you better believe I will be watching.
Alright Journal, gotta run.
We’ll be in touch.
Mike
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