My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal !
Good morning Mike ! How you doing this fine, early, peaceful morning?
I’m doing good Journal. Everything is alright. But, of course, when I’m in the market, there’s always something to talk about. So, just sit back and listen Journal, I got much to tell.
You got it Mike. Fire away !
Well, you know I’m in the market, trades running. But this week, well, I got a little, hmmm, what should I say, daring. I’ll explain.
Look, it’s the nature of the job. When your trades are in profit, it’s the adding of the position sizing in question. First off, I know you remember that I have 3 stages that my trades will go through. Here’s part of my ‘manage’ mind map.

So, I’ve been in stage 2 for some days now. With quite a few trades running. So, I think it was like around Tues or Wednesday this week, that it hit me. I need to be adding some sizing. I mean, it’s time. But, I’m kinda scared. All I need is to do is add some more position size and then see price rise back up and go from trending to non-trending. That would be disastrous. All of that previous work done for nothing? So, I’m contemplating all of this. Should I do this? I mean, this is the plan. All indications point to that this is due. Now. Even principally speaking. But, technically speaking, I was hoping for a better retracement to have occurred, on some pairs. But, you never know, that just might not ever happen. I do realize, at this time, that I do not have a more specific plan on actually when to add more size. I have had some experience before with this, but I kinda think I it was more of luck than skill. Surely this is not the case of rinse and repeat type of trading. That’s most ideal, cause you’ve done it before and kind of know what should happen. Well, looks like it’s time to learn something. Go big or go home. Just do it.
So, I kind of thread the needle a little. Only with one (NZD) did I make it a market order, at that time. Then for the rest, I made entry orders set.
Well, I don’t want to try to explain every detail of how it went, but, needless to say, it surely was a roller coaster ride, to the end of the week. Between kicking myself and patting myself on the back, yeah, it all happened. But…I got to tell ya Journal…if there’s one principle that I do stick with, it’s this. And how many times have I mentioned it to you. It’s the fact of waiting out the week. Man, I hate to think that I know what the market will do, to any degree, but this is so far helping me out a lot. The market always makes a turn or two before the end of the week. And when things are not going so good for me, all I need to do is wait it out. The process is very painful. But I realize that I have such a trust in that one principle. Therefore I obey. And that’s what I did.
Let me show you what the week looked like. And all you have to do is look at the dog-gone EUR.

Well, I remember now. Look at them (EUR). Thank God my sell stop limit order didn’t get caught. I placed it on the end of day Tuesday. It’s that small line there that took on Friday. But, in any case, my account was losing big time at the end of the day Wed. I’m telling you…I was pulling my hair out Wednesday night. Can you imagine if it went down, picked up my extra position size, and shot north like it did? What would my account look like? I wasn’t in the red, but it would’ve been if that would have happened. Ok, anyway. Back to my point. End of Wed comes. I’m looking at it. Price goes high. So high that the 5 ema line goes above the 9 ema line, and that all tells me that I shouldn’t be in this trade anymore. But. The principle is price always turns before the end of the week. Especially this week because Mon, Tues, and Wed were all up days. I sat there, thinking. I trust this principle so much that I will prove it. Plus, how many times am I going to experience, (and it’s all back there a few pages ago) getting out at the top? It’s the live and learn thing. And now I’m going to learn. So…I rode it out. And then to boot, my limit order hit on Friday. Nice Mike.
Ok. That’s nice. Let’s look at some other ones. How about the USD. I’ve been patient with them. Surely in the past I would’ve gotten in with them at the beginning of the week, having a limit order placed at the blue (9ema) line. The 5 and 9 lines have been getting much closer. But, I figured I should wait for an entry around the 21 ema line. And yep, you can see there that it took on Friday. Yeah, I know, my plan, ideally, is to get in when the 5 crosses down over the 9, but, I’m not too upset with myself on that. Sure, I’m a little late, but it’s ok. I needed to be sure, that’s all. Who would’ve known what was going to happen on Friday with the CPI numbers and retail figures. Actually, I did mention to you, Journal, last week that I think the USD will get stronger by the end of the year. Ok. Well, maybe I’m wrong. Won’t be the first time. But, that’s my reason for waiting to get into their trade. So, I guess it’s the difference of 50 pips. I’ll be ok. But, I do have these other fish to fry. Well, let’s talk about them also.
I have 13 open positions. 2 on each, except on the USD. So, my 2 losing trades are with AUD, NZD. And one with the GBP. Let’s first talk about the Comms.
Man…if that doesn’t figure, looks like I took out the extra positions at the wrong time. Well, it’s the weekend now. Back it up…I took those positions out at the worst time!! Geeeez. Ok, so, here we are. What am I going to do now? Well, with the NZD, that looks like a nice doji reversal candle huh? That helps. Technically speaking, the trades are still valid (5 below 9) . Yeah, but for how long? Well, I have got to think that next week must be the tell. If price doesn’t come on back down soon, then I’m screwed, big time. Especially with the AUD. That extra position will basically nullify my entire trade. I guess that’s the nature of the retracement thing. When it looks like it’s gonna hurt, is when the reward is just around the corner. Literally. Well, what else do I see? The CAD looks poised to bring on another leg. So, in respects to the Comms, all things given, I think the chances are greater that this is a retracement more than a break in trend. Therefore, I’m going to let it ride. But, believe me, I’m thinking, if it doesn’t look promising by Tuesday end of day, then I’m jumping. I’m looking for a red candle. If I don’t see it soon, I’m out. That’s all. That would make it an end of the trend, cause all three of those lines are pretty close to one another.
How about that dog-gone Guppy. I don’t know. The same thing. I’ll keep an eye on price, in conjunction with the lines. I want to stay in it as long as the 5 line is below the 9 line. Also I need those 2 lines to be dropping below the 21 line. That big doji line on Thursday is promising to me, since price didn’t move up on Friday. So, I’m thinking that price wants to go back on down there. Nothing but a continuation of the trend. We’ll see.
You know Journal, I always seem to be working on something, about my business. And something came up lately that has been bugging me. I want to make a mind map on it, but I’m really stuck. It’s like, I really want to define, outline, explore, uncover the differences between 2 things. (I read someone’s post in here that mentioned this very subject, and it’s something that I’ve preached about many times in the past, and now I can’t get it out of my head). This is almost a fundamental and crucial part of the whole business.
Spill it Mike!
Ok Journal, but, I’m gonna come back and do the explaining.
“Capital building…or …”

Let me grab some more coffee, feed the dog, and I’ll come back.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Ok, here we go.
For me. There are 2 ways to trade. And I will inadvertently need to trade both ways along the way. Let’s start out with the easier one.
Trading your business.
I need to stop right there. I have been looking for these words this entire weekend! Now, I can start my mind map. This is all an inside thing Journal. I’ve been stuck with not being able to come up with what you call it when you trade the conservative way. As opposed to the capital building way.
Trading Your Business - as opposed to Capital Building Trading.
I believe the most central, core, underlying fundamental way & how you trade should find it’s roots to one of these two principles. And they are extremely different. The risk is what’s the difference.
I know one day that I will operate my own successful trading business, full time. That’s a given. And at that time, the way that I would be trading will fall under the ‘TYB’ way. It’s all common sense. In business, your looking at your income, your expenses, projections, basically having every bit of control over your money flow, in and out. In trading, your gonna be careful how much your going to risk. You know the bottom line. You know how much money is in the account, how much you are willing to let go, thresholds all over the place. Bottom line, your gonna protect the account at all costs. At the end of the day, your gonna take the least amount of risk to get what you need. All your strategies will be constructed around that amount of risk you determined. There’s levels that need adhered to. Most basic one will be to protect the account. You always want to know, without a doubt, that you will always have an account left over for another day. It’s being prepared for worse case scenarios. Then you know that your bad days of trading should be at about break even. Again, it’s all incorporated into your strategies. You want consistency. Rinse and repeat trading, in which you can pretty much have some kind of projections of the future. You keep track of all your trades and have available %'s of any kind of data you need to know. You will basically have as much control as possible over your trading, in order to be able to continue your business, and also to grow it. (I can’t possibly touch on everything that it entails) But, that’s the idea there. That is what every trader is taught to be like. I was taught that when I went through my entrepreneurship. We must be in control of our trading. I remember it so well.
But, there has to be a difference than when you trade for building capital. ‘CBT’. Surely, the risk factor will be the difference. Because what I have to lose is different between those 2 ways. It’s all correlated. I can afford to lose some capital, but I can’t afford to lose the business.
What I put into place should, and will, be different between those 2 ideologies. The strategies, boundaries, controls, principles, should not be the same. I don’t know, maybe someone could say that all it is, is the CBT risk is just simply a little bit more. That’s it. Maybe all I need to do is tweak all risk down a certain amount from CBT to TYB. Can I have the same type of strategy, but tweak only the risk factor?
I don’t know.
See, as I’m writing this, I’m starting to think. Is there a real difference?
Well, I guess I need to expound on what I think a CBT strategy might look like. As opposed to a TYB strategy.
I’m thinking of the time, (and it’s all right here at the beginning of this thread from Jan. 2016 to Jun 2016) that I embarked upon a goal to build capital. I did double the 1k account in like 3 months. It wasn’t all that difficult. But, to keep it up…was a different story. You just can’t. I wonder what are the factors that enable me to achieve that, but then prevent me from continuing it?
I don’t know Journal. Look, don’t pay me much attention right now. All I’m doing is thinking too much.
I’m wondering if it all really does come down to how much do I risk? But for some reason, I think that there’s much more to it than that. I guess I really need to outline (on my mind map) what the differences are between the two ideologies are. Surely, there can be a strategy to make more money in a shorter amount of time. I don’t know, like maybe using the compounding approach?
Maybe that’s the entire difference. Compounding.
Compounding profits can also lead to compounding losses, I’m sure.

Look, I would like to have some kind of outline of these two approaches to trading. Then I would like to see exactly where my present trading plan fits in between these two. Then, decide which course of action should I take, if any?
See, it could very well be that I have a good trading plan. I could be producing very good percentages on a monthly basis. If that would be the case, then do you know how long it would take me to get to producing the capital I need to start it full time? That’s if the plan is to produce it solely from trading. I know there’s other possibilities. So…like…do I shoot for a track record? And then take that to the bank? (Figuratively and literally) Or do I shoot for an effective compounding strategy? And try to make that work.
I know it’s been written, even by myself, that there’s nothing more important than to be consistent with your trading. But, in the context of constructing a strategy, there just may be a big difference between them two. Why couldn’t I get consistent with a compounding strategy?
I just wonder.
Look Journal, thanks for listening. I’ll clue you in on if I come up with something in my mind map of it.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hey Journal.
Well, you probably think that I jump around too much and not complete a task at hand. But, I’m sure you remember that last week I was on the results theme. And I did tell you that I would show you what my other 2 months looked like. Yeah, it was enlightening to me. So, I retrieved the data, and compiled it all last Sunday. So, sorry if I digested it all up without you. This is the table that I will be completing at the end of every month. And also, just so you know, the reason why it all starts in the month of July is because that’s when my strategy was finalized, and the first real month that the JPY embarked upon a run. I did make some tweaks to it, as you know, but fundamentally, that’s how I trade. Getting into the beginning of a trade and riding it out to the end, by way of ema’s telling me what the trend is.

On the left is how it all breaks down. On the right is the bottom line. The % there is how much of an increase/decrease it had on my account. So, as I have told you before, all we’re dealing with here is pips. I haven’t been able to come up with a money management system that I should be comparing to. First off, I’m trading with the lowest amount possible, so at least I can’t expect to think I should be trading with a lower amount. But of course, sometime I’m going to wonder whether I should be trading higher sizes.

Ok Journal. I just wanted to show you what I completed on that, so far.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!
Good Morning Mike!
Ok Journal, we’re gonna take a walk together. What do you say? Let’s go back to the beginning of the week and try to figure out what I need to learn.
Oh no, Mike…is it bad?..
Mmmmm…Well…Yeah…I lost a good bit Journal. It was a frustrating week. So, now, lately, I guess I’ve been thinking about some changes. That’s probably what I should be doing now. But, I guess this is the place I needed to go first. Sort it all out, then get to work. I’ll have to throw it out there what I’ve been thinking. There’s no doubt I need some changes, Journal. I just want to move in a smarter direction.
But first…come on…let’s take a walk…back in time…( as I put my arm around your shoulder).

Ok, Journal, look. There I am, sitting there, on the weekend, just bothered. I kept thinking that things are not right. I have such a bad feeling about this. Honestly. For all the times, throughout the past 2 weeks, that I’ve seen my account balance go from high, to low, then back to high again (but not as high), then lower than previous lows, it was like birth pangs. I kept thinking that something big was about to happen. But, at the time, I just kept scratching my head. I kept saying to myself that I should just scrap all of my open trades. Protect the account. Take the money and run. Honestly Journal, that is what was going on. But what kept me from doing it was on what grounds would I be doing it? You know, it’s the old, ‘follow the plan’ mentality. And I surely do not have that scenario, clause, that allows me to jump like that. I guess what is more important to me is the fact of following a plan, rather than looking at results. So…yeah…I’ve been trying. But, what was the plan anyway? Well, the exit plan is always to get out at the opposite crossing over of the EMA’s. I remember thinking, at that very time, that I have in the middle of a week’s time to be getting out. Remember my golden rule? Price always turns during the week. And that would be the tell for me to jump, if things are going wrong. All that is my thinking on last Sunday. And this is what it was looking like also.

Ah, I remember telling you Journal about those Comms. Pretty much the AUD. Boy, if I don’t see a red candle before Tues, it’s over. Ok. So. Everybody is trending high. I just got into the USD on that last day there. You kind of have to disregard those lines, cause I’m going back in time here, (I even had to delete some just to make it presentable for this discussion). Well, everyone is looking good. Except the AUD/JPY. Price just peaked up over the trending line (21 ema). So, yeah, I’m following the plan. I’m doing what I should be doing. But, as I have just articulated, I wanted to jump. I’ve been in many of those trades for a good amount of time already. That should be cause enough. We’re either going on another leg, or breaking trend.

Ok Journal, let’s fast forward a little. Here’s what end of day Monday looked like.

So, what am I looking at…the AUD/JPY right? Ok, nice, a red candle. Yeah, it did close just under my trend line, and I guess it satisfied me enough to stay in it. What else do we see? Well, with the Comms, the NZD is shooting higher now. Not good. Ok, so they are on my radar for this week, need to come down below the 21 line. And man, the CAD, made a lot of real estate south, but came back up. I don’t know, could be good. Or bad. Then with the Majors, getting a little nervous. Especially with the USD. Price coming back up. Well, I remember me sitting there saying to myself, that pretty much everything is valid (except the NZD). So, let’s ride it out. What’s Tues look like?

Well, the Comms are not looking so good. AUD,NZD, both are above the 21 line. Not good. Plus all of the lines are real close together. That should have been my exit. I mean, dog-gone it, that is the plan. And I admit it. I failed the plan. I don’t care Journal…I need to know my mistakes. But, what clouded my judgement was what was going on with the Majors. Look! All of them with red candles! Ok, USD with a doji. That was keeping me in the game Journal. I think, (ok, I know) I mentioned the fact that I can not be meshing pairs’ sentiments. Uh, how do I put it. I should be playing individuals moreso than as a whole. That has gotten me into trouble before. Well, now again, also. I trade the one currency. There are correlations going on. But, it doesn’t matter. I need to be cutting some cords. But, I tend to go all or nothing. I am aware of this fault Journal, don’t worry. I will only get spanked for so long before I really learn something.
Ok, Journal. So, you sitting down? Yeah, let’s take a seat, shall we? What does Wednesday look like?

So, as I try to think about what was going through my head at the time…it’s kind of funny. You know, this week the market had an anniversary. It was for the black Monday that occurred back in Oct of '87. The stock market fell a whole lot. It basically crashed. Well, my only experience that related to that was this. See, I was in the Army then. But, in '86, an exact year earlier (Oct), I went through basic training. And I do remember one guy who was in my unit. He was an older fella (yeah, like 30 years old was considered old…now that’s funny). This guy told me he was on Wall Street before he joined the Army. Oh, and he was Jewish. Like full blooded. He was something. But anyway, he told me how the market crashed, and that’s how he lost his career there on Wall Street. It got ugly for whoever he worked for. I don’t know much details about it, other than he moved on, and next thing you know, he’s in the military now. Well, I don’t know how the that correlates…my buddy who seen, and experienced a crash there, to end his career, but the actual big crash took place a year later. I just don’t know. Maybe he got out before the big one. Who knows. But anyway, that is the closest I’ve gotten to witnessing any personal experience with that event. Interesting. Ok, anyway, that’s nice. Well, all I got to say is, present day, Wednesday end of day, this was my crash. And it doesn’t feel good. My account was way up over 400. Now it’s at like around 300. I mean, I’m stunned. Sitting here…saying…it’s over. The trend is done. And I’m done. Talk about a sinking feeling in the gut. And to remember just a few short days ago I really wanted to get out. But that’s evil. Really. I don’t do that much anymore. The old ‘I should have…’ Sure, I thought it, but then immediately get off of that, and admit it’s over, said, and done with. I’m out. I jumped out. My thoughts were that all of those candles are just wayyyyyy to big. But…wait a minute…what about my golden rule??? It’s Wednesday!!! There’s always a turn during the week Mike!!! Yeah, that definitely was going through my head. And I thought…you need some real big ones to stay in after that. I mean, those candles all but told me that the trend is broken, the JPY is broken, and money is flowing out of the Yen now. I need to salvage what account I have left. Plus I can’t image much of a turn, if any would occur after that. I mean, that is massive to me. On every single pair. Nope. I’m out. That’s that. Forget about the golden rule. This will be an exception. Well, life goes on. And without me. Cause I don’t care what happens now. I’m out. I’ll lick my wounds and try to figure something out.
So Mike…just out of curiosity…was there any kind of turn ? Like if you would have stuck to your rule?
Man Journal…you are gonna make me, aren’t you.

Well, I didn’t erase any of my trades lines there. Cause that’s history. That’s where I got out and took my losses. But wouldn’t you know…what would’ve my account balance of been…if I would have only obeyed, and stayed in…I mean, come on. Who has the go-nads to hang in there after that? Really! That’s suicide. Let’s take a look. With the USD. Much better. There was a turn. How about the GBP? Much, much better! And I’m just sick when I see the NZD. Not only did it make up a lot, but I would’ve been in the green on both positions! But, with both the EUR, CHF, it was worse. But man…intraday speaking…the EUR fell all the way down to my 21 line. Geez - oh - man. Nothing I can do about that though. I’m end of day only. Price wants higher. But, in any case, I would have not lost as much money if I waited it out one more day. But, who’s to say I would’ve gotten out after Thursday?
You know, I got to mention it. There always seems like there’s second chances, in the market. Like I was mentioning before. It’s like there’s birth pangs. It’s like clues to what’s going to happen. And in this case, unbeknownst to myself, there was one more chance. It was Thursday, end of day. Man…I seen that…and I was like…oh well. What can I do. I’m out and staying out for the week. Who knows, it could all go right back on up for all I know.

That’s the ending of the story right there. It kind of makes me feel pretty good to know that mostly everyone is trending higher to the Yen. Well, except for the NZD. That just hurts right there. Well, the CAD is technically trending lower also. But, other than that, yep, trend change. What can I do? What is is what is.
So, where does that leave me? As I always should do, ask the question of whether I followed the plan. Did I? I’m kind of thinking no. My exits should be at the crossovers. I was too late. I should have placed stop loss orders at them, at many multiple chances that I had. But I didn’t. I didn’t. I didn’t. Why??? I don’t know…I just didn’t. I guess I’m waiting on more Yen strength. I wanted more. Why didn’t I think the trend was happening long enough anyway? It surely was. I mean, it’s been days and days. Geeeez. Maybe I’m too greedy. Got to be.
Looks like I need to work on my exits.
What do I do now?
Well, looks like I need to wait till the Yen gets strong again. ‘Come on North Korea, fire another one!’
I do know I need to be looking at the individual pairs, more as separate entities.
Watching, and preparing for when price wants to trend below my 21 line.

But, Journal, because of all this, I am working on something. This has made me think about a fundamental aspect of my trading. It’s gonna take some time to figure out. It has to do with finding a balance between my position sizing to the length of time I’m in the trend. It’s kind of hard to explain now, because I’m trying to formulate something. I guess I’m wondering whether I should be trying to stay in the trend to the very end or not. Like to catch only a portion of the trend. And also with a larger position sizing. Kind of like getting in and out at a most opportune time, rather than, you know, the entire length of it.

I’m thinking.
Working.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal !
Well, it surely was an interesting week. Man, I’ve got so many things I would like to talk to you about Journal, but we are not going to have the time. So, I’ll do the best I can.
It all started a week ago, last Sunday. Let’s see, you have to remember, at that time, I was not all that happy. I guess all you have to do is read my last post, huh. Now, come on, I wasn’t all that down and out, at that time. Sure, for what I have to do to catch you up every week, takes a lot. It’s kind of like I have to relive it all (whatever I’m experiencing). Especially when I’m in some really bad trades. But anyway, at the time, I was ok. I got over it Journal. Honestly. I jumped out of the market, took the losses, and …well…I accepted it. I was fine. Sure, I didn’t know quite what to do after that. I was planning on waiting for some time to pass before getting back in. Ok…I was assuming that the Yen was not going to get any kind of strength, any time soon. (This was all my mindset at that time, last Sunday). I just got spanked. And it didn’t feel good, at all. Kind of upset with myself, because I didn’t follow my exit plan like I should have. But, on one hand, I did get over it, that week. It’s just that I have to relive it for you Journal. I guess it’s a good thing, to kind of like solidify it in my mind. So, bottom line was, I was just kind of looking for some answers. Like…what do I do now?
But then.
It hit me.
What am I missing?
Revelation time.
Diagnose!
That one little word got me thinking. Boy…you know what…I’ve not been putting all things into perspective lately, like I know that I should. When was the last time that I have mentioned any of these two words to you Journal? Weekly. Monthly. Yeah, I know, it’s been awhile. I have not really looked outside of my daily time frame. Man…the bottom line is that I should not be in trades for any long period of time when I know that the JPY is trending low on those 2 time frames. That’s so terribly risky. I need to incorporate this into my trading plan. Look, I do keep track of the fields’ correlation to one another in those time frames. (I’ve shown you my table, from time to time) But, I don’t have a direct relation of that to my trading plan. And I do believe now that it needs to be telling me about how long should I be staying in the trades, or not. Man…am I crazy for not seeing it. Who in their right mind would think that the Yen can continue gaining strength when their trending on the bottom of the stack in the weekly time frame, let alone in the monthly also. It just should be some kind of indicator for me.
Well, given all of that, this is what I came up with. It’s actually a continuation of the work that I have done already. I just didn’t complete it. And to be honest with you, I’m actually not done with it, but, I definitely am on the right track, and am closer to where I need to be.
You know, let me stop right there. I’ve been learning a lot from my son lately. Man…this is a story I’ve been contemplating telling you about. It has nothing really to do with my trading, but it is extremely interesting. I’ll give you the bottom line, and you’ll see. My youngest son, 18, is leaving the nest. The entrepreneurial spirit that he has, along with the great desire of being independent, he has decided to go to L.A… (That’s across the entire country) He bought a one way ticket to go there to live. He’s leaving on this Tuesday morning. He’s not going with much. No luggage, only a satchel. Couple pairs of clothes, and his lap top. Phone. ID cards. That’s it. Oh, and he only was going to bring $100. (But I gave him more). And that’s it. He knows no one out there. Has no connections. And he wants to make it. Big. He wants to meet the right people, in the music industry. He’s a producer. Music is his life. Really talented. And he wants his own business. But, he will be starting out with pretty much nothing. So, you know, everyone’s asking the questions. ‘Where are you going to stay?’. ‘How will you support yourself?’. ‘How will you protect yourself?’. …etc…And of course, he just doesn’t know yet. Till he gets there. “But, that’s where the action is.” " It’s time to get out from the umbrella, and make my own life". “And I won’t settle for anything less than greatness”. (He did live with us, for a couple years, but the last 3 with his mother. The last one to leave the (broken) nest).
Well Journal, it’s gonna be interesting. I support him. I’m probably the only one who backs him 100%. He’s a lot like me. And I told him, that if I would’ve known what I wanted to do with my life back at that age, I should’ve done the very same thing. But I would’ve gone to Wall Street.
Anyway…I’ve learned some things from him, during this couple weeks of time before he leaves. Some of his sayings are very true. This is one of my favorite.
When your at your best, your at your worst. When your at your worst, is when your at your best.
Think about it.
He reads a lot, mostly about how the successful people have made it. There’s a couple of real icons he follows, and learns from their advise. He really wants nothing but success. And boy, do I love to hear that. Oh, he has gotten a lot from me over the years, don’t get me wrong. Advise wise. It’s just unfortunate that he hasn’t been able to see, yet, how far I will go. It just figures that I picked the hardest venture in the universe. So, it’s kind of like we’re in the same boat together. He plans on making it big, in order to help me with mine. He wants to give back.
I tell ya. That kid is special. His name is Ian Wolski. And I fully believe, with all my heart, that he will be great. I keep telling him…your story is being written as we speak. Sure, it’s risky, going abroad for the first time. Traveling for the first time. Alone. Becoming fully independent. But, he also doesn’t have much to lose. He is so young. And needless to say, he has no anchors keeping him down from reaching his dreams. You know, he always seems to throw this in our conversations. " I want to make you proud, Dad. For everything you taught me, it will come true."
Boy…that cuts right to the heart. There’s nothing a Dad would want to hear, than that. Man Journal…I have to tell you. I guess I have accomplished one thing in life. Being a Dad. I remember that being the only thing that came to mind when I was in high school. Was asked…“What do you want to be when you grow up.” And I sure do remember saying…“A Dad.” I hadn’t known what I was born to do, other than that. It’s funny, cause that’s all I ask young people today. Find out what your born to do! And do it!
Well, better late than never. I finally found out who I was. A trader. 5 years ago. When I was 45. To be more specific. A self-sustained, successful, trading business owner.
Um, ok, that’s all nice. Sorry Journal for the tangent.
Getting back to my son’s saying. The hit that I took in the market lately made me realize a lot of things. And I would be lying if I took credit for the revelation that got me started. Someone helped me with that. (via a private message) Thank you!
Yeah, it is about diagnosing. And I believe I’m on to something pretty big now because of that. It’s really remembering to keep all things into perspective. If there’s nothing wrong, and you lose, ok, that’s fine. But, if there is something that your forgetting, then that needs to be fixed.
So, looks like I’m going to have to come back and clue you in on it Journal.

MIke

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here it is. I’m gonna show you my final product. Well, I’m not completely done with it all yet. But this is what I came up with this week.
Wait, a little preface first. See, I’ve been wanting to get more mechanical with my trading. I mean, I need some real no-brainers of when to get in, when to get out of my trades. Almost like an automated system. And then, therefore, that would eventually lead me to be able to do some back testing in order to tweak, or like, optimize my trading plan. Look, I know I tend to gravitate towards a discretionary type of trading. I’m sorry. Sometimes I just can’t help it. I like knowing the fundamentals surrounding my trading also. But, how to automate a trading system that incorporates fundamental aspects is not an easy thing to do. And in my case, boy, if I knew when actual risk-on vs risk-off was taking place, I would be in much better shape. So anyway, my point here is that I’m going to get more technical. Then take that and do some back testing. Then eventually find the most probable times to enter and exit trades. Well, I need to continue what I started. Remember this?

Right there, is all of the possibilities that can occur, given; price, 5 ema, 9 ema, 21 ema. That’s all good and nice. But, how do the daily, weekly, monthly all relate to one another? When will the optimum time to enter on the daily time frame be, in conjunction with what the weekly shows, and even monthly? Well, the least thing I need to do is monitor what’s going on in all 3. This is what I got going so far. (I have to break all of these up due to space constraints)

So, the top is the monthly standing. Oct 1st. Price is red. Light blue is the 5 ema. Dark blue is the 9 ema. Orange is the 21 ema. Then on down, the weekly picture. We can see last weeks standing, and today. Then below is the daily time frame shots. I did think about filling in the weekly and monthly shots, cause it’s all dynamic. Price moves constantly. But…like I believe in the daily close, that should hold true to the weekly close. I believe what matters most is the close. For the week. And for the month. So, looks like I will be changing the monthly close in a couple days from now.
Anyway, the way I look at these charts is this. You have to first notice the red. That’s price. In each block, where is the red? If it’s at the bottom, that means the JPY is trending the strongest. If price is on top, it’s trending the weakest. So, while we can see there easily the CAD figures. The daily, shows the Yen nothing but trending high against them. How about on the weekly? Well, we have the opposite. Last week at this time the CAD trended most high against the Yen. The light blue (5ema) pretty much always wants to follow price. So, look at the end of the week stance. Price dropped a lot, so much that it blew below the 5, and 9 lines. Man…this does kind of make me want to see exactly when and how price traveled from on top to down to 3rd place. Was it end of day Monday, Tuesday, etc…? But that is not as important as end of week price. I need to remember. So what else do I see on this one? Or think? Well, the trend is deepening from the daily, to the weekly. And I don’t even know (from this shot) how much of an affect it’s having on the monthly time frame. See, I kind of want some leading indication, of what’s taking place. I don’t want to be late to the party. For the most part anyway. I guess the question is, what’s going to be my confirmation, in order to take action, as opposed to weeding out the fluctuations/fake outs that occur? I just would like to find the correct flow as close as possible. Relatively speaking.
So, let me tell you what I think about each one. From the top.

USD. Monthly, Yen trending low. Not as low as it can get because the 9 ema is below the 21 ema. But it’s pretty extreme though. Then on the weekly, yeah, that’s the most extreme you can get, trending low against the USD. Beginning of the week, to the end. No change. But on the daily time frame, we did have one little change. It took place on Friday. Price dropped below the 5 ema. This could be the start of a turn. But I will, by no means, take any kind of action just because of that. The long term trend is Yen low. This is all a wait-and-see still. As it stands now, my trading plan calls for me to get into a trade at the point where the 5 ema crosses down over the 9 ema. But, I want to incorporate some weekly and maybe monthly conditions also.
Now, look at the EUR. Monthly and weekly start of the week bodes Yen lowest as can be. In fact, even on the daily also. Then, end of day Thursday comes, price drops so far down, so quickly, that the 5 doesn’t catch up yet. But it does start to catch up on Friday some more. Plus, that drop made the weekly time frame change also. Price dropped below the 5. So therefore, I think we have opportunity here.

Now, this is the most intriguing one to me. AUD/JPY. Last weekend, all 3 time frames the same, weakest the Yen can be. But, my o my, what changes took place starting Wed. You can see that it was over a 100 pip drop. But, you have to see that all the lines are pretty much close together. And the the weekly time frame, changed also. But not enough. The 5 didn’t go below the 9 yet. Also price didn’t go below the 21 either. So, all in all, good enough that the daily is changing the weekly.

Journal, I got to run. That’s all I can do for now.
We’ll keep in touch.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal.
So, I’ve been sitting here, wondering all what I should write. This is not all that easy because I started something last week that really had no direct relation to my journey, but my son’s. Look…it is interesting, and I’m deeply concerned about him. So, I figured that the best thing to do would be to give an update. This is some story. And here it goes.

That’s Ian at the airport last Tuesday morning. Off to L.A. California. That’s how he left. No other luggage, or belongings. Gonna give it his best shot at making his new life on his own. Independence. Starting out with…not much. $400. Talk about starting from the bottom.
So, we talked on the phone as he was trying to navigate his way through the airport. I guided him to the different places he needed to go. And apparently he got off ok. I didn’t hear from him at all for the rest of the day. Sure, I was worried, whether he made it or not. But, I kept thinking, that he doesn’t need to always check in with me, or anyone for that matter. I’m hoping he’s smart enough, you know like street smart, to make all the right decisions. Not falling trap to any pit falls. Who knows what can happen. He’s never traveled before. And of course he’s never been alone like that. And I wonder just how much of real life does he know? But, I guess we’re gonna find out.
So, Tuesday comes and goes. Wednesday morning comes. I’m at work, working. And I just cannot help it. So, I give him a call. It’s like 9 am. He picks up. And I can tell I woke him up. Boy, I felt bad. Then it hit me, he’s 3 hours behind. He’s on the west coast, and we’re on the east coast. I apologized and simply asked if he was ok. He said yes, of course. I’m like…“where are you at?”. He says a motel. Ok. Great. He got there ok. Found a place to stay. All is fine. It was a short call. He’s says he’ll call me sometime later on. I’m relieved. So, then, comes Wed night. It was late, 9pm. He gives me a call. “Dad…uh…I don’t know if I’m going to make it…I’m running out of money. I stayed at a motel last night. And tonight I’m going to stay in a hostel. It’s a one star, very cheap motel. But, I simply don’t know how this is going to happen.” I’m like…" Ian…it’s only been 24 hours!" He’s like…" I know Dad. This is what I did today. I made it to Venice Beach. It was nice. And as I was there I rented a bike. I rode to one homeless shelter, but they only accepted families. Then I rode to another shelter, and they ended up closing it all down. So, I basically struck out with that idea. I’m running out of money. The cost of the Uber’s and everything to get around adds up." I asked him…“did you eat today?” He said “no…I ate something yesterday though.” Ok. So. Now what? “Dad…I think I should just come back home and get a job. My businesses on-line is not panning out yet.” He’s been trying to get his on-line, E-commerce business, to generate some money. But hasn’t up to this point. That is what was supposed to generate some kind of income for himself. So, things are crumbling. The plans are not working out. “Dad, I came here with $400. And now (24 hrs later) I only have $178. I’m not going to have much money at all once I buy a plane ticket home.” I told him. “Ian, do not worry about a plane ticket back home. I’ll get that for you. That should be the last thing for you to worry about. Look…just give it one more day. Weren’t you supposed to be meeting up with someone on Thursday?” There was some kind of free work shop there in L.A. that had to do with developing your on-line business. See, I kind of thought that that was the real reason why he went there to begin with. I was wrong about that. It just fit, that he was going to be there when this opportunity presented itself. So, I told him to give it all you got for one more day (Thurs). Try to make some contacts. Don’t just give up.
He agreed. So, that was it. The whole time after that conversation I felt that I was a little tough on him. Surely he should know that I will do anything to help him. I know he knows that…I hope…Then Thursday comes. And goes. Thursday night comes. And goes. Still haven’t heard anything from him. Boy, am I worried. I was definitely too hard on him. The poor kid doesn’t have much at all there. Most of his money went in one day. Every time I call him, his phone is not on. Doesn’t even ring. Goes straight to voice mail. Then Friday comes. Still nothing. I’m at work, working away. Pretty busy. But, man am I worried now. I gave him a tough love talk. But, did I go too far? I kept thinking, that it just has to be that he’s ok. He’ll be like that. If I don’t hear from him, he’s ok. When things are going wrong, that’s when I will hear from him. But you know what…I need to know. So, I call his mom. “Please tell me you heard from Ian lately!!” She said yes. This is what happened. Wed evening, his time, (probably after we talked on the phone) he made a video to all of his 1,300 followers on Instagram, that if anybody is willing to help him to stay at their house for a few days, would be most appreciated. There in L.A. And guess what? He got a hit! An 18 year old kid offered his house for a week. Him and his parents house. They are Latino. His friend is a rapper. So they have something in common. He got picked up from them and stayed with them that Wed night. Then Thursday they got to go to a studio. It cost some money for a few hours. But they made some music together. I guess they had a good day. So, he was able to eat and be taken care of. His buddy has a license, so he was able to drive them around, with the mother’s car. So…all was going good. I was very, very relieved to hear that. (I got a lot of those details later on when I talked to him) I ended up talking to him yesterday (Sat). So, he told me that he can only stay with them till Wednesday. He will be kicked out then. “Well Ian…what’s your plan now?” …“Dad, I think I should just come back home. I need to be making money. I only have a couple dollars on me now.” …“Ian, I agree. Just as long as you have given it your best shot. You know what, your really trying to do the impossible! Not a whole lot of people can do what you have done already. Young or old. It’s tough starting out at the bottom. And I mean bottom. You could get a job at a fast food restaurant, and kill two birds with one stone. Food, and money. But still, you always need a place to stay. Which is difficult to do, hopping around.”
So, the plan that ended, as of Sat, yesterday, was he is going to do the best that he can until Wed. Because that’s when he’s being kicked out of their house. Well, last night, Sat. night, I got a phone call from him. He hasn’t gotten anywhere ( no other contacts made) It’s time to come on home. So, after going back and forth, we decided on him coming back on Tuesday afternoon. See, there’s a flight that leaves L.A. to Pittsburgh, Pa. pretty much everyday at 3:30 pm. So, once I put in the reservation, there’s no refunding it. It would be a done deal. At the time, I guess the plans could possibly be changed, so therefore I didn’t make the reservation yet. I would wait a day or two. Because what if something would come up and he found another way to stay. You know? I would be out some money. This had to be a definite flight home.
Well, now we’re getting to the present. He knows that I wake up at 3am every morning. That’s been my schedule for a few years now. And as soon as I woke up this morning (even though it happens to be daylight savings time!) he texted me. He needs to come home now. He had just found out minutes ago, from his friend, that he cannot stay with him Sunday, or Monday. But Tuesday he can. So, uh, I guess that means he needs an immediate flight, huh? He says that he doesn’t want to sleep outside for 2 nights. Well, let me just throw out the text.
“Hey Dad my friend says he can let me stay Tuesday but not tomorrow or Monday…I hope you didn’t get the ticket yet, but can you change it to tomorrow? I can’t sleep outside for 2 nights I almost had to sleep at Long Beach.”
He then was telling me that he didn’t meet anyone today, everyone started leaving when it started to get dark.
So, immediately this morning, I hoped on Spirit Airlines web site to book the earliest flight. Well, guess what. The earliest flight is Monday afternoon. Absolutely none for Sunday. Today. I got it paid for and got the confirmation code. Sent it to him via email. Even texted it to him also. He must have went to sleep or something because I haven’t heard from him. Now…we’re at the present moment. He has no money. No where to go. And he’s gonna have to tough it out for like 2 more days. All of Sunday (today) . And Monday, till he gets to the airport. He will have a way to get to the airport, via his Uncle’s Uber account. He will be able to use that, cause he has no money on his card.

You know Journal…I’m sitting back here, rereading everything. And I’m laughing. Ok. Only at his text. It is kind of funny. For a second. ( He cannot sleep outside for 2 nights…)
Man…I told him I’m so sorry. But, what can I do? Wait till he gets the word, that there’s no flight till Monday afternoon. It’s gonna be a tough couple days, man.
Now I just want to cry.
I told him to find a church. Maybe he can get some help there for today. Boy, I hope so.

Needless to say, it’s kind of hard for me to get any kind of work done now. That’s the reason why I hopped on here to tell the story. My mind was preoccupied this morning with it all.
Well Journal, all I can do is wait to here from him.
In the mean time, I have to try to work. I do have so much going on with my business. I’ll catch you up on that sometime later.

Will tell you the end of the story, when it happens. Hopefully he will make it through.

Mike

[Falstaff]

He’s not gong to die of Hypothermia in LA Mike - He’ll come back fine. A bit hungry perhaps, but fine. Do let us know when he gets there, I do hope to read on Tues morning that he’s home.

I expect he’ll regroup and be off again in due course, but hopefully a bit better prepared, so you can get on with the trading and not worry about him.

Just part of being a Dad mate !

[MikeWolski]

Hey Falstaff…thanks for that!

Well, it’s Tuesday morning. He made it, I’m sure. See, I didn’t pick him up at the airport. But I was talking to him when he was about to board the plane there in L.A. He was due in at 11:19 pm last night. I’m sure he got in ok. His mom picked him up. We’re only talking about 3, 4 hours ago.
Let’s see. I don’t really have much time here now. But there was a couple interesting moments he had.
Do you remember how he said that he almost slept there in Long Beach? Yeah, I was wondering what he meant by ‘almost’. Well, it was Sat. night, around 10 something, he found a plank, or some kind of wood, right there by the ocean. He settled in for the night. Curled up. Gonna sleep. He noticed how noisy the waves are. Kept thinking how this is not going to be so easy. But he tried. Then next thing you know, someone bumped him! “What are you doing?” He responded with “I’m trying to sleep”. It was a drunken Mexican guy. He was pretty scared at that point. But, all that guy said in response was…“oh, ok”. And left. So, that got him up. He turned on his phone (cause he was trying to save his battery life). And, lo and behold, his buddy shot out to him that it’s ok to come back to the house now. So, he got over to the train and eventually made it to his house. It was late, but did make it. That helped him out so much, to be able to get through Sunday and Monday. Then yesterday, after making it to the airport, he told me he was very hungry. He went through the line, to get some food from one of the places there. When he got up to the register, he ran his card through. It was declined. Then kept running it again with more food taken off. So, after going back and forth with the girl, who tried to help him out by discounting things, the lady behind him felt really bad for him. She stepped up and said that she would take care of all of it! He thanked her up and down. For some reason, he told me that he didn’t think that this lady would do this for just anyone. But, somehow, she found favor with him. So he ate. And he said that this was the first time that he had gotten really full, in like the whole entire time that he was there. That occurred just a few minutes before I called him. So then, he was waiting there to board the plane. He will have over 5 hrs on the plane. I told him that he should take this time to think it all over. Start your (adult) life over. Make some goals. Draw up plans. Accomplish the things that you need to. A drivers license. A car. A job. Make some money. Save it, so that next time you can do this again, but better. It is all about becoming independent and making your life what you want it to be.
He definitely agrees. And said that he will.
But, he also wants to make some more beats. Music is his life. He is good at creating/producing music. That’s something he said he hasn’t been able to do while he was away, cause he was preoccupied with surviving.

So, that’s the end of the story.
Well, we shall say, the end of the first chapter of his life.
He’ll be ok now.

Thanks for listening Falstaff!

Mike

[TradeViper]

Mike, well wishes for you and your family from the Crew here at VIPER central.

The Ever Wishing The Best VIPER

[Falstaff]

Great that he’s back mate

18 does seem a bit young to be “growing up” tho I have to wonder whether the Beatles or Elvis were grown up at 18 ? Trouble with “growing up” is you have to put a lot of dreams to one side and concentrate on becoming a “wage Slave” It’s nearly 50 years now since I did “A” Level Economics and started watching the shares in the “Economist” but I “needed a trade” (profession) according to my old man (Father) so went off to UNI to do a professional course - I bloody hate it ! and trying to escape - I’ve done roofing, Washing machine repair TV and VCR reconditioning, Had my own second hand shop, Been a director/shareholder in Light Haulage, And eventually went back to me “Trade” and have freelanced for the last 20 years so I don’t work every day - six months a year brings in plenty

My Economics teacher was a guy called Ken Howes and he said he was only teaching until he got a job trading in a merchant bank ! - I should have spoken to him more and gone that way myself perhaps - Ah well, I can look back on life, 2 marriages, 2 divorces and a 20 year “live in partner” plus 4 kids - 3 with a different woman I wasn’t married to. I can honestly say life has not been boring ! But in many ways it has been reactive not pro-active. Encourage Ian mate, Encourage him to “do his brains” chasing his dream. Look at Edison, Ford etc etc _ the one big fatcor in success is determination and perseverence - well ok that’s 2 ! lol.

wish himm well from me Mike !

atb

F

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal !
Man, have I been busy. I just got done with something big. Actually, multiple aspects I’ve been working on. And now I think I’ve put it all together. Let’s see if I can put some perspective into all what I’ve been up to lately. I really got to think about this.
Ok. So. Probably the most important aspect I’ve been getting to the bottom of is trying to boil my trading down to is specifics. I want to get to the point where it can possible be automated. Surely I couldn’t do that, cause I am not a programmer. But, there should be no reason why I can’t draw up what exactly makes me get into a trade, what makes me add more position sizing, what makes me exit, and even what makes me size the trade the way I do. So, I’ll show you what I got, soon.
But, the other thing that’s been on my mind (actually, I’m trying to not forget about doing this) is the diagnosing of the market. It all falls under the reasons why I would enter a trade. And it’s putting all of the currencies into their proper perspective. A monthly, weekly, daily diag. Also how they all are relating to one another. All of this data would be my peripheral vision, before I enter trades. Then once that is established, I follow the trading plan for the entries down to the exits. See, I need some kind of supplement to the way I trade, which is an ema crossover method. I realized that the more I was trading this way. Just because a crossover is about to happen, doesn’t necessarily mean that I should be getting into it. There’s a perspective that must be met first.
Oh, and there is one more thing that I want to show you. (Surely I’m not proud of it, but it is what it is) You know what I do every month. Results. Yeah, well, it’s not all that pretty, but I must. So, let’s get to that first, then on to the other stuff next. Warning…I think I’m gonna overload this journal with pics.

Ok, Journal, so, let’s get this over with quickly. Yeah, I stink. What can I say. Oh…I just remembered…what I can say…"When your at you worst, your at your best." The other half to that saying is "When your at your best, your at your worst. When I think about it, that means, you should never be at your best. Or at least think your there anyway. Ok, so, no indication here! But…what we have here is my trading account balance at the beginning of each month. And that’s what it looked like, with my open trades running, the second the month ended. The figure in parenthesis is how much away the account was from last month. And don’t worry about the $6.46 amount. That’s technically my business account. I just haven’t beefed that up any. One of these days I will be using that.

This is what my trading looks like on a monthly basis. I redid it. All I’m looking at here is the amount of pips my trades are running (A), to what my trading plan says I should be running at (I), for ideal. That’s it, no more max. That was stupid.

The first column is how they all break down, per month. The second column is them all totaled, and compared. Plus I put in how much my account moved up/down % wise. Then the third column is the running total. Basically it’s everything totaled, all of the actuals/ pars/ and %'s. Well, I, at least, am comforted by the fact that my account, since July 1st, is up 21.1%. So, for as bad as I feel about my trading, it’s not that bad. At least I’m above water.
I do need to clarify, because I did have to change every single pip up there since July. My ideal pips consists of when the 5 ema line crosses over the 9 ema line, that is the start. And the end is the opposite crossover. It doesn’t get any simpler than that. It’s exact. There is no mistaking where the start and end is at. It’s just not an easy task to get into & exit at those points. Regardless…that’s what I’m shooting for. Those amount of pips that it comes out to be. I feel that I will become most successful the more my trades match the ideal. And I’m talking about the amount of pips, only. No more, and no less. That’s perfection. But, that is only half of the complete trading plan. I haven’t gotten around to what my ideal trading sizes should be. But I know that I’m not that far off because you can’t trade any smaller than what I do now. And I do know that the number of trades running is a factor of money management also. This all is a long process to refine. I’m getting there though.

Now, let’s talk about specifics. This is my baby. This will show me exactly how the 5,9 21 ema’s relate to one another, along with the price. Also my trades will be amongst the lines. Let’s look at the USD/JPY. And I’ll explain.

Someone could say that this is just like a chart. Basically all of the same info. Well, yep, pretty much. But, it is in a different format. But I feel it gives me more specifics & details. This would be the only way I can automate my system. So, from the top. That’s the monthly line up. Nov 1st. We can see that price (red) is above all lines. This block is the trending high block. Red on top, followed by the 5 em line, then the 9 ema line, then last the 21 ema line. So, for me, this is what I don’t want to see. The USD is trending high against the Yen. So, I’m calling this a ‘solid trend’ (high). It doesn’t get any stronger than that. Then below the monthly is the weekly blocks. They are positioned on top of every Friday. The dates will be every Sunday. Those are the weekly time frame P,5,9,21 lines. It shows me how strong they are trending on that time frame. Then of course, below that, is the daily time frame blocks. So basically, this is a one-shot view of how much price is trending on all 3 time frames. But…there’s more. A lot more. I’m putting in my trades within these also. Their the green inserts. This will make me more accountable of where I should or shouldn’t be putting on trades. Ok, so, let’s talk about where I did enter in this USD/JPY trade that I have running now. On Nov 6th, end of day, price ended up in between the 5 and 9 lines. Same happened on the 7th. But…the 5 ema line did not cross down over the 9 ema line. At that time, the crossover would have been at 113.71. I put on a short entry order at that place. And sometime on the 8th, price did hit that and got me into the trade. But what happened by the end of that day? Price shot up and ended up! 113.915. That was on a Wednesday. So, I’m gonna let it ride out for the week. That’s why I stayed in it, even though the 5 did not drop down below the 9 yet. But! Let’s continue. End of day Thursday. Price dropped down and ended at 113.358. Yes! And Friday then came and ended. Now, not only do I have my 4 lines, and my trade entry, but also I have added the crossover. Cause look, the 5 crossed down over the 9. And that will leave a point of crossover. So, I added it there being a light blue/dark blue mixed colored entry. 113.67. See, I need that there because that will be my triggers. I will have entry triggers and exit triggers. Those show me the ‘ideals’. And guess what…I will be keeping track, every day, of where this pair is at in regards to how many pips it’s giving out at the time. Look up at the ‘A’, ‘I’, little table. I started on Nov 3rd, keeping track. Since the 5 did not cross over the 9 yet, there shouldn’t be any pips to be had yet. But the actual is running because I’m in the trade. It took of course. So, Monday, end of day, will start to show what the ‘ideal’ pips should be, cause the crossover took place on Friday. So, to put a wrap on this pair, I did some diagnosing of it. Will show it to you soon. But I have come to the conclusion that I need to get out of this trade. My plan is to put in a stop loss at break even, at the open. Why? This just does not look good. We have a trending high USD on the weekly time frame, and the monthly time frame. Nothing points to this trade being something to hang on to. I got lucky with the turn of the week occurring. No other reason. Well, you also have to see that all of these lines are close together. So a crossover surely would be possible at anytime. I kind of think that we’re at an inflection point. Meaning, something has to give soon. Up, to continue the long term trend flow, or down for a break down of it. This is a risky trade to be in without a stop loss. And I usually don’t play with one until conditions like this make me put one on.
So, anyway, the only other thing I wanted to show you Journal was my diagnosing. This is what took so long for me to get done this weekend. I’m not that sharp. It just takes me so long when I look at the charts to determine what’s really happening. I mean, dog-gone-it, you can make a case for just about any direction you would want. That’s why it’s important to be as unbiased as possible. Being objective is not easy. Well, let me give you some shots of what I have. This is really a monster of a mind map. I will have to show pieces of it. So, let me start with what I think is most interesting of the pairs.

So, we have the AUD/JPY. And I’ve been in the trade since Oct 27, as you can see. (EMA table) Well, I got into this trade pretty late. Sure it’s trending low, the 5 line is below the 9 line on the daily, and has been the whole entire time. But, I would like to be seeing that green entry much higher in the line up. Since I shorted it, surely I would be wanting to see price, and even some other lines below the green. It’s been a struggle. But, I’m actually a little better than what the ideal has been. This is how the ideal is being calculated for the month of Nov. Since it’s trending low already at the beginning of the month, I’m starting with the closing price of Oct. (87.04) . And all I do is compare the closing price for each day to that price right there. It’s like, it’s trending low so therefore I should be in it, until the opposite crossover happens. Since I didn’t get in at the beginning of the trend, it’s gonna be risky. Again, the ideal is getting in at the beginning and riding it out to the end. That’s what I’m keeping track of. And if you want to know how this system fares per month, just look back at my second pic up there. So far, it always generates a positive expectancy. I can’t assume that this will always hold true, of course, but it does point to the fact that there pretty much always comes a risk-off time happening. In fact, there is no negative result for any particular pair yet, in the 4 months of data taken so far. The lowest is zero. I always thought that there could be negative numbers. I guess not. So anyway, after looking at all of the data for the AUD, I do not feel good about this trade. I know I got in way too late, and need to find my way out of it. And I have to tell ya, I am watching the ideal numbers. Right now I’m above it. All you have to do is see how much that ideal number oscillates. It’s crazy. Why don’t I put in a stop loss, at BE? Uh…maybe I should. But I think that’s a little bit too risky. I know their low on the currency relationship table, but that’s precisely when they start climbing.
Well, how about one more. The NZD/JPY. They are similar to the AUD, but I have come up with a totally different outcome. Maybe I should change this.

Man…I’m looking to get out with the AUD, and the CAD. But, in fact, this is the only pair that I came up with that makes me want to stay in a trade. Look, see all that green there in the middle table? That green being at the bottom is not good. Price was pretty much riding higher, but then shot back down in the last 2 days. I definitely got in this trade at the wrong time. Soon as I got in, look, at the red (price), all it did was go high. Look also, we had a crossover last Wed, to the upside, then it crossed back down on Friday. I don’t know what to do…all perspective points to being weak. I think I will stay with that notion, and just see what happens.

Ok Journal, man, I’ve run out of time.
Will catch up with you again shortly.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal !
Good morning Mike ! Come on in…talk to me. How the heck are ya?
I’m doing ok Journal, thanks. I mean, I’m feeling good, physically. You know, I just never want to take advantage of that fact. For what my body goes through at work, I’m forever thankful that nothing serious has plagued me yet, now that I’m getting much older. Whether it’s the knees, the back, or any kind of stupid injury. I mean, you just never know. I just want to make it to the day that I won’t be getting my hands dirty anymore. Oh, and the sweat also…man…it isn’t easy. 20 years working on cars is a long enough time to be doing something that isn’t quite you. But, thank God, I’m a worker. That will get me through it. Boy…and I can’t wait …till the day…that all of this, will pay off. Of all of the effort that I put into this. The experience that I need. The knowledge that I will need. The smarts that I need. Has to pay off. I mean, that day has to come.This all reminds me of what I plan on doing at the end of the year. I think I do that every years’ end anyway. That’s putting my entire trading career into perspective. You know, like where am I at. Where did I come from. Where am I going. And I should dig up the previous write-ups also. The end of the year is my anniversary, cause it all started in the week between Christmas and New Years, 2012, that I started my pursuit.
Yep, ok, that’s all nice and good Mike. We’ll get to that. But what’s going on now? How was your week? Did we learn anything?
Well sure I did. I experienced something that we always hear about, but it’s kind of like my first time. See, I’m, generally speaking, usually in the market when it’s rolling, and running Yen strong. But lately, I’ve been realizing that I’m in the market just too much. And you know that I’ve been losing money that way. I’ve had 2 losing months now. So…you know…I’m gonna cool it some. And that’s what I did last weekend. I determined, pretty much, that everyone is not looking promising, after my diagnosing the higher time frames. Everyone except the NZD. Yeah, I did say that I should be ready to put on some more sizing with them if they started to fall. Other than them, all that was on my mind, at the open, was to get out. I had a 1k size open with all 7 pairs running last weekend at this time. So, I remember being scared. Boy, I can even show you what I wrote down on all of them. Basically, get out! The higher time frames (weekly, monthly) show Yen weakness. And I’m like, why am I in these trades??? It doesn’t make sense. Well, come the open, I jumped. The USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, & CAD. I took those trades off. But, I did stay in with the NZD, and AUD. I’ll remind you of what I determined last week, at this time.
The NZD.

And so, this is the result. Daily time frame. I stayed in. Added another 1k position size. Then jumped out. Was scared. Took the profits.

How about the AUD. This is last weekends determination.

Result.

I stayed in. Added another size. And then jumped. End of day Wed. Boy, I thought I did a good thing when Thursday came and went, cause it started rising. Actually, they had some big news come out right at that time. Man…I definitely thought I hit it at the bottom. Well, no. Look at Friday. Connnnnntinnnnnuuuuue, the trend.

You know, it hurts, when I look back at this chart and see my previous trades. We’re in a downtrend. And boy…you just do not know it when it’s presently happening. It started back in September! But, look up at the screen above that one. The weekly time frame (in the middle). It can be said that it’s in an uptrend. Well, honestly, last weekend, it did close below the 21 line. Is that the (hard) indication that the uptrend is over? Ok, what about to the left of that, monthly look. Tell me that doesn’t look like it’s climbing out of a big downtrend? I’ve pretty much always thought it was more accurate analyzing larger to smaller, time frames. Top down analysis. But, this seems to be changing the opposite way. Or, is there really is any correlation to be had in the first place. I don’t know.

But, this one really got to me. Let me show you the CAD. Last weeks analysis.

I was definitely scared of being in this one after seeing all of that. Look. Monthly - moving up and out. Weekly - moving up. Same with the daily, after a bit of rest.
So, what happened this week, you ask?
I updated the monthly, weekly, daily charts to the present.

Different ball game now huh. Well, that does teach me a lesson with the monthly time frame. It is very important to see the closing of the candle. We’re not even close for it to be closed. But, the candle for Oct is a bear candle. That is the last true bit of information on that chart. I admit, I was fooled by last weeks shot, on that time frame.
Look, as I said last week. You can paint a picture to say anything you want it to! But, what’s really accurate? I was scared to be in this trade anymore, because I thought all of these charts said, “we’re wanting to go up”. Of course, now I know, that’s not the case. Well, I should say, for this past week anyway. Look…I know the story is not over. It could still move on up to continue it’s long term breakout course for the longer time frames. But,to be honest, right now, I am wondering how much of a correlation the time frames really do have on each other. I think it’s actually the first time I’ve ever doubted this fact. I mean, Journal, you know me, I’m all about perspective. It’s definitely top/down analysis. Not small to big analysis. But, you just got to wonder… who’s leading who?
So…
Wait. I need more coffee.
Mmmmmmmm. Oh man…this baklava is so good. And it does go good with coffee.

Ok, so I’m sitting here. Looking at the things that I wrote. Yeah, seeing myself complaining. Sorry about that. Well, let’s move on. I want to show you this chart. It’s my ‘currency relationship’ chart. You know it. But, this is the months tracking.

We have the Nov 1st monthly line-up (middle, bottom, one line). Above that is the weekly time frame standings. Then the daily time frames is the corners. I go top left, bottom left, then top right, then bottom right. Let’s pay attention to the Yen. What are some facts here? Every single weekend, so far, they have climbed up a notch. And it’s visible by what happened on the daily. Last week, they toggled between 3rd and 4th place. Then, this past week, they go from 3rd, to 4th, to 2nd, 2nd, FIRST. Ok, what does this mean again? They are trending higher than everyone else. Meaning, the JPY is trending above the 21 ema line, on the daily time frame, against everyone. It’s that line that separates who’s trending higher or lower, in my book. And the other thing that I find very interesting is the Comms. Just look at that. It has been the AUD, NZD at the bottom lately. But now, the CAD has joined them. I wonder if that correlation will stick. Man…you just never know if they are flowing together or not. Lately, no. They have tailed the USD more than the Comms. Geeeeezzz. Yeah, look at the USD. Maybe they are dropping off because the Dollar has. In any case, back to the Yen. Usually when they are on top, the Comms are at the bottom. It’s always been like that. So, another thing I want to point out. Let me show you, first, what last Aug looked like, when when had a good run.

Basically they were the top dog for most of the month, on the daily time frame. But, look at where they were on the weekly time frame, during that time. They were no better than 5th place the entire time! And on the monthly, Aug 1st, they sat 5th. So, you would think that they would’ve been placed higher on the weekly time frame. But, nope. And it is interesting that the Comms were above the Yen on the weekly time frame, during that time. That is interesting to me. Sure, it does bode correctly on the daily, where the Comms are down low compared to the Yen. And also, see, the CAD, did ride with the other 2 Comms, well, until the end of the month. Then they separated.
So, back to my point. Look at the present (previous chart). The JPY has never been this high on the weekly time frame, since I’ve been tracking these this way (June I started this). Does this give more credence to the fact of them getting stronger? Sure…I know…only time will tell. After the fact, I think, it only tells how strongly and how long will the Yen trend strong. (Man…this is making me want to go back and get the rest of this year mapped out.) And the question is…is there a direct correlation? Also…which is following which? (monthly - weekly - daily or daily - weekly - monthly) ? Top down? Or bottom up?
I know there are no answers to these questions. I just have to spell them out, that’s all. But, I do have to conclude, presently, that the Yen is getting stronger. Man…I remember keeping track of these currencies on a daily basis. Surely all you have to do is go back a couple years, and you’ll see some of my work. But, I remember seeing how strong the Yen can get. I mean, they can dominate like no other. Can’t remember exactly what year. Maybe 2016. They tore apart everyone in the beginning of the year, for months! So, I know the possibility of their strength. And of course, their weakness. Surely, anyone who’s been around knows they can be the butt end of a trade. Easy money.
Ok Journal. I’m done talking. I want to get back to work. I’ve been compiling past data to my new ‘ema relationship’ table. I’ve been working on the 3rd quarter of this year. Surely, present data is being compiled. I’m just working my way back. I should show you what it looks like so far. It is a daunting task. But, I’m enjoying it.
Btw…I’m gonna try and get back into the market. I think last Friday was the beginning of something big. Don’t worry, I’ll start off small, and if it turns out correct, gonna add some sizing.

I believe this will help me to get closer to automating my trading. It’s data, that I will be able to use. Each block is comprised of the 4 lines. Price (red), 21 ema trend line (tan), my crossover lines of the 5 ema (light blue) & 9 ema (dark blue). There is an extra square in the block for the crossover point (half light blue, dark blue). And so, the more data I can get, the better I can see what chances are best for me to pick of when I should be getting in and out of trades. And I should get a better idea of whether or not the correlation with the weekly & monthly time frames hold true or not. Should I consider that? Or not? And also whether there’s correlation laterally, between the currencies. You know, divergences that occur over time. Especially between the Comms and Majors. But, when the time comes, it’ll all be about asking the right questions. Like…what are the better chances…being in a trade that matches the weekly time frame standings, or not? How about the fact that your not necessarily making money even though it’s trending high? So therefore, is there any better places (indications) to be getting out? Ok, so what will be the best triggers? I can go on and on. But, that’s the idea. I need to find what the market will tell me, when exactly, has the best chances to be getting in and out are. (I know people go back years and years for backtesting a strategy. But, patterns happen all the time. This will just be a continual update.I track of the present time, the daily progression of it, and will keep chomping at the quarterly time periods of the past.

Will keep you up on it all Journal.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal !
Good Morning Mike !
Well, Journal, I’m pretty excited to be here with you this morning. Boy, do I have good stuff going on. And I’ve been wanting to share it with you. You know that I’ve been working pretty hard these days. Well, I definitely think it’s paying off. Look, I’m not there yet, (you know, finding that holy grail) but I feel that I’m making some real headway. Let me explain.
Let’s see. Where do I start…You know Journal, I was so close to calling you up, earlier this week, and sharing with you the moment that I got. But, now is the time, for it. Ready? Ok. Look. This is it.
I need to trade the AVERAGE PRICE, not actual price. What this means to me is this. See, as you should know by now, I have my indicators. And the more I think about the perspectives of them, it only makes sense to me. Who doesn’t know by now how hard it is to trade price. Let’s talk about this. Price is just all over the place. When anyone talks about trading, that exactly what their talking about. Present time Price. You do not know where it is going. And to figure out all of the reasons why traders think it’s going a particular way, is impossible. Sure, I read the headlines everyday. My favorite is Kathy Lein. She is with Investing.Com. I follow her. At the end of everyday, she gives a run-down of all what happened in the currency market that day. She’s just like all of the other ones out there that give the reasons why the Dollar moved the way it did. “Well, no news hit the headlines today, so the reason why the Dollar moved on down is because of deflation fears, plus Yellen is starting to get worried about that also”. You know what I’m talking about. It’s whatever kind of news that comes out that day that they match it to what the currency did. And when they don’t know why it did something, then they blame it on the old ‘traders probably taking profit today’. I mean, who really knows? No one! Surely it could make sense, but it’s virtually impossible to know why the crowd feels a certain way. It could be a technical reason, (like price just moved above the 200 day moving average, so therefore it’s a bull run now) or a news related issue, like I already stated. Or a fundamental reason, like a central bank wanting their currency cheaper. It’s just impossible to know. That’s what I truly believe, no matter what good explanation they come up with, to match what price did.
Now, what else do we have? If, absolutely, no one knows what price is going to do, all we have is what price has done. Whether it’s a nano second ago, or a day ago, it’s all in the past. That’s what everyone is looking at! There is no such thing as present data! I don’t care. It happened already. Even every single choice made, that hit the market, that moved the market, technically happened in the past, before they even hit the button! I think it all comes down to the percentages of those who agree to those who disagree.
Everyone is on the same page. All we’re doing is looking at what happened to determine what will happen. Therefore, I think it would be smarter to pay more attention to the average of past price than the actual past price. And I have decided that I should be trading by the average of what price was, instead of the actual candles themselves (a.k.a price). This is gonna be my edge. I’m telling you Journal…this is going to change everything for me. If I can stick to this principle, things are going to look up for me. Now, let me delve into it.
I need to stop chasing price, and pay more attention to average price. Then align my trades accordingly. Price is all over the place. But, average price is much smoother.
Let’s look at what I’m talking about. Best example is probably the GBP/JPY pair.

First off, price is in red, because it’s easy to pick out, among the other prices (5,9,21 ema’s). On the daily row there, you can see how price was trending high as high can be (GBP high) at the start of the month (on a Wed). Then, immediately by end of day Thursday & Friday, price dropped down below all 3 ema lines. And you know that the way I trade is I’m wanting to be in a trade when the 5 ema crosses down below the 9 ema. So therefore, I need to know when that happened. And it did take place on that Friday Nov 3rd. You can see that the light blue square got below the dark blue square, for the first time. (The Thursday and Wednesday prior, the 5 ema line was higher than the 9 ema line) And to put a cap on it, the 21 ema line (tan) is there to tell me whether the pair is trending high or low. So if price is above it then the GBP is trending high and the JPY is trending low. Vise versa the other way. And of course you know that I favor the Yen, for strength. But, my trading revolves around the crossovers of the 5 & 9 lines. I would like to get in at the point when they crossover down and stay in it till the point they cross back over. But look at what price does the first week and a half. It’s all over the place! Who in the world can tell where price wants to go? Ok. So we have a transition taking place. On the weekly line-up, it’s showing GBP trending high as can be. The monthly line-up shows the GBP pretty strong. Trending high (above the 21 line), but not as strong as can be because the 5 & 9 lines below the 21 line. Anyway…should I automatically assume that price wants to go higher, because of the longer time frames? …shrug… I don’t know. But, my only point here now is that price is all over. So much that it makes the 5 cross down over the 9 on Friday. Then on Monday, the 6th, the 5 crosses back up over the 9 again. You can see that it’s at the same point. Then, by the end of day Wednesday, the 5 crosses back down below the 9 again. It stays that way up through Friday, even though actual price jumps up there. Like I said, price is everywhere. And then finally it settles on down low the very next week. Price goes low enough to start affecting the weekly line-up. But…I would like to ask the question. What’s easier to try to manage, price itself or the average of price? Come on it’s a no brainer. All I could of wished for was to get in at the 149.69 point. But it is tough at that time, to do that. Cause I don’t really know which way it wants to go then. But, by the end of the week, the 5 did stay below the 9. Plus, price did end up at just 7 pips below that level (149.615). I could have been pretty dog gone close, even afterwards! My only point here is that I believe I have an edge playing the average price than actual price. And do I really need to mention how we see that price wanted to go down as the month rolled on.

How about some USD/JPY.

Well, starting the month, trending high as can be, the USD, all on the daily, weekly, and monthly. Then comes the change on the first complete week. And by the end of the week we have the crossover, on Friday (at 113.67). I mean, all we have here is a simple change of trend. Deep enough even to change the weekly line-ups. Yeah, all I’m doing here is looking at this, in hindsight. It seems so easy. Of course it is Mike, in hindsight only. But look up at the top there. I wanted to make all of this a little easier to distinguish when it’s trending high for the JPY and when it isn’t. So, the red line means the 5 is above the 9. The green line is when the 5 is below the 9. This all kind of means that I should (or would like to anyway) be in the trade. That’s gonna be called my ‘ideal’ line. And I have inputted in there how many pips are generated. The starting point will be the crossover point, of course. But, this is where it gets interesting. I had to redo all of these numbers because I started out doing it wrong. This is the correct way now. Let me walk you through it. On Nov 10th, the starting point is 113.67. But, instead of subtracting that from the end price (in red) I should be subtracting that from the 5 ema line! To find how many pips I should expect. Remember, I am following the average price, not actual price. I do not want to care about where actual price is. I will only care about my 5 & 9 price lines. So, on 11/10 we got 113.67 minus 113.60 equals 7 pips. That’s the starting point and the ending point. Then end of day on Monday the 13th we will have the starting point minus 113.60 again. Then the next day gives 113.67 minus 113.543 which is 13 pips. And of course all of that is noted up there at the bar. Those are the pips I should expect to have. It’s all accumulated also. This is what I call the ideal trade.
Journal, listen to me. This is what I am shooting for. This is what I want. This will be my mission from now on. I mean, can I be any clearer? I want so badly to emulate that top bar. I want my trade entries to be as close as possible to the crossover points. I want to stay in the trades as long as the 5 are below the 9 (top bar to be green). And I want my exits to be around the same amount as that value ends up to be. Because of the backtesting that I have done already, I know for sure that I will always be in the positive. Some months are greater than others. But, I know for sure, that I will not lose this way. I can count on this with everything that I have. Again…what I am doing here is following the average of price. Sure, the actual price does have an effect on the average (because that’s precisely what it is, added up history of the actual), but my concentration must be on the smoother past data. I believe this is the perspective that I must keep. It should keep me out of trouble. It should help me determine the flow much better.
As you can see, just below the ‘ideal’ bar, is where I’m putting my trades. And keeping track of the pips. It’s the ‘actual’ pips accrued. So that at the end of the month, I should already have the numbers of how many pips my system has attained, to what my trades have attained. You know, keeping track as I go. As you can see now, I’m not in this trade anymore. I jumped, out of fear. And surely, that was a mistake. I did get in just a tad early, which was not all that bad, but then hopped on out. …WHAT A MISTAKE…And now I don’t know when to get back in. Maybe if there comes a good dip in the numbers, then when it climbs again. We’ll see how it goes. We have the end of the month coming up this week. Never know what will happen.

Journal…there’s so much more I want to show you. But, I feel this is a good start.
We’re only beginning.
I must get more work done on this, now.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!
Well, here we are again. Nice and early. Got some fresh coffee. And I’m ready to type.
Journal…I’ve got to tell you. I am so excited about my strategy now. I know I shared it to you last week, but I need to do some more explaining. Man…I keep on thinking about this. This is a real break-through. I definitely believe this is going to change my entire trading. And the thing is, it’s like there’s nothing really new here. I’ve been honing in on this for some time now. You know…it’s like this. Do you remember a while ago, (back some years this was more popular) there are these pictures. Whether on a frame, or in a book. And when you first look at it, it looks like a really nice design. There’s nothing there. It’s just like a big pattern of something. But, there is something there. You have to see it almost cross-eyed. In order to see it, you have to stare at it for a while, then it’s like you have to relax your eyes and try to see through to the end of it. And then next thing you know…BAM. There it is! You see it! It’ll be some 3-D image of something. Yeah…it is really cool. Well, that’s what this has been like Journal. Seriously. I’m so very excited about what my future trading has in store. I haven’t discovered anything different, from what I’ve been working on now for a length of time. I’ve just discovered more of what I got right now. Just like the 3-D picture. I think I’m just realizing that I’m on the right track. Well, I want to talk more about this, in particular but, I want to shoot out to ya some results. You know…end of the month.

Well, I’m just happy that I ended up in the positive. Man…when I think about how this month went, I don’t know…I went down a road that I haven’t yet. It was the first time that the JPY ran rampant, and I was not really on board. It was just like what happened back in July/August. But this time, I was trading scared. I guess it’s like the more I learn, the more I am getting careful. So therefore, I won’t always be trading, EVEN THOUGH I SHOULD. You know, this reminds me of what Trish mentioned to me last night. We had on t.v. some skiing. It was on the Olympic channel. And we were watching ski jumping. You know, where they do that one real big jump. They start up there really high, and jump like 80 meters off of the big ramp. They actually fly through the air and see who can make it the farthest. Well, anyway, Trish…(my partner, who was born and lived in Germany for the first 11 years of her life, so she’s knows the European lifestyle quite well)…said to me that these youngsters who do this sport must start out when they are 2 years old! And you know why? Because when they are that age they are not afraid of heights. That’s the only way you can get someone to get really good at something like that, because when you get older, the fear of heights will surely prevent you from even trying it, let alone competing in the Olympics. And the point here…is getting someone acclimated to do something BEFORE fear can even settle in. Because there won’t be that possibility of fear at that age. You know…think about that. A baby. If a baby could, it would want to pet a lion. Why not? Who wouldn’t want to touch that nice, soft, big mane. Looks cool, huh? Sure! Well, we know that there comes a time in everyone’s life, when your young like that, that when something bad happens, you will have a memory that will last for the rest of your life. It’s a trigger. It’s a realization of what could happen, not necessarily always what will happen. Ok, sure, petting a lion will probably always end with the result of getting bit, but not always with, say, trust. If you were mistreated by someone who was of a different color than you, does that mean that in the future you will always be treated that way by anyone who looks like that? Absolutely not. So, my point is…fear. Look above. Fundamentally, my plan was to ride out the trend. During the first 2 months of it, I did pretty dog-gone good. Then the next 2 months, bad. Losing way too much, account dropping. The Yen lost it’s strength during that time. I should’ve not been in many trades. And then here comes November, the Yen tracked very strong. (oh, I got the numbers to prove that) So, what am I remembering now? What can happen. Yeah, why don’t I just do the smart thing and stay out. Well…you know what…now that I’m on the other side of it…that’s a mistake also! I should be in when the JPY is tracking strongly.
Ok, so, I’m learning. And that’s what I’ve been up to lately. I feel that what I’ve come up with is the proper method. It’s a more of an automative system. I should know when I should be in, and when I should not be in. Believe me, it’s simple. Just like me. SIMPLE.
Journal, I’ve shown it to you last weekend (the last post), but, this is all I want to be doing now, is talking about it more and more. The more I think about it, the more I get excited. Plus, I need to get my thoughts down on paper. And that’s why I am here.

Well, I need more coffee.
I’m coming back.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Journal…here we go.

Here’s a record of my system and me.This is how my system did, and how I did, in the last months.

The middle column is just the total from the left one, and the right column is the total from the middle one.
Yeah, I know, that’s nice. Anyway.
At the present time, I’m not in the market. I closed out my trades like around Wed,Thurs last week. Thank God! Cause definitely, the Yen has dropped out of the sky now. Let me show you.

I don’t know if you can pick it out, but, the trades that I was in are the bold, italicized ones. This month I was mostly in with the Comms. But, look back towards the beginning of the month. Yeah, I had mostly everyone going. But, you know what happened…I just got scared. And doesn’t it figure??? That’s precisely when the JPY got real strong. Well, at least I stayed in with the Comms then. —nod, nod,nod, shrug---- Oh well.

So, this is where I’m at. I’m not in the market. I am going to trust my system 100%, from now on. Like…no more discretionary trading. I’m going to give it to you straight.

Well, that was painful. Ok, enough explaining.
I like how the month of Dec. is starting out now. All of the Majors are trending higher against the JPY. But, with the Comms, it’s so close. The gap has closed down to only a couple pips between them all. I would like to see them all crossover back to the upside. See, this would get me to start my system from scratch. Let me show you what I’m talking about.

Yeah, let’s look at the CAD/JPY pair. Boy…they shot up on Friday like crazy! So, this trend should be changing very soon. Look, at the latest numbers. There’s only 4 pips separating the 5 from the 9. Just a day ago the spread was 22! Sure, all you have to do is look at price and how much it jumped, but…I am not watching price anymore. My focus is mostly on average price. Specifically the average price of the last 5 days, and the average price of the last 9 days (light blue/ dark blue). So, we should be seeing a crossover to the upside pretty soon. And this is what my goal is. With everything in my power, what I am shooting for is to be getting in at the crossover price. Look back at Nov 15th. I just want to know for what reason why I couldn’t have gotten in at 89.198. I mean, look! Even the day before (14th) , what was the spread? Like 0 pips! I could have been prepared to get in at that price. Even a day before that, on Monday, the pips spread was 5 pips. Then it goes to 0 pips. Then the crossover happens, and before the end of the day it ends up to be 29 pips into the trend. Look at the top row (bar). Those are the cumulative pips the trend generates at every days end. And all it is, is the spread of pips between the crossover and the 5. This is what I call trading average price. Oh, let me point out to you another thing I find very interesting. Look at the bottom numbers. Guess what that is? Those are the total number of pips that all of my 7 JPY pairs have totaled. All I’m doing is adding them all up. This definitely tells me the big picture how the Yen is progressing. Are they getting stronger or weaker? Well, let me tell you something. When I first got this idea of adding them up, it was Thursday morning, (London open) for the 30th. So, I was looking at the progression. All you have to do is pay attention, and you can see that a top happened already. And you know what? That’s precisely when I jumped, out of every trade that I was in. Boy, we definitely were done with the trend, as we can see how the week ended up. So, all I know is that this figure will be a factor with my trades, or more like a confirmation piece of data. So yeah, you can see up there where I jumped out of the CAD trades, had two running. How about some other shots for me to talk about.

Let’s look at the CHF/JPY pair. The beginning of the month apparently was trending high. You can see, at the top bar, that the total trending pips (for the previous trend) went up to 107 pips. Then on the 14th we had an opposite crossover. That killed the trend. I mean, sure, you can see why. See how high price jumped on that day, which brought up the 5 to go above the 9. Ok, that’s nice. Price can do what it wants, I don’t care. But, what I do care about is what my 5 & 9 are doing. The killed crossover price was 114.073. But then, it comes back around again, only a pip away and 2 days later. So it’s like I could have just stayed in and rode it out. Actually, look up there. I was in that trade and got out that previous Friday. But I only racked up 3 pips from it. It did take a nose dive from that point on. Well, what we can say is that this next trend didn’t go as far. It switched over only 52 pips later (on Thurs 11/30). And I just checked, I am correct there with the monthly ending pips. 53, for the system. And I had 3. See, yes, there are 52 pips on that last trend, but from the beginning of the month (in which the trend was just a continuation from last months) the difference was only a positive 1 pip. Therefore 53 for the system that month. So, that’s all nice. Right now, it’s trending CHF high. So, my plan is to wait it out till the next crossover down. I must get in it. Journal, just like all of the others, whenever I print a crossover on my table, I better get in it. My only objective is to have a trade start as close as possible to the crossover price. I mean, I don’t care if I’m late. As long as it crossed over…and I printed it…I need to be in it. I will take as many losses as possible (which will be the costs of trading) in order to make this happen. Don’t worry Journal, you’re gonna be seeing my trading actions.

How about the EUR. They are tough to trade, I think. They just switch too frequently. It’s like, you just have to grab the pips and run. You know, I just looked, they ended up with the least amount of pips compared to every other pair (36 pips the system generated for the month). Next is the CHF ( with 53). So, guess who lost the most pips to the JPY?

Yep, the AUD. I actually did real good with them this month! So, I don’t know what else to say about this. It’s all cut and dry. I guess the lesson here for me is learning to stay in “till the end”. I did do good by adding additional positions. So that just means more pips.

Ok Journal. I do need to say something. I am aware of the fact that I count pips. (I did mention this before to you) But, there is another factor involved. That would be position sizing. I know there are different camps out there that make the money more efficiently. Larger sizing for a shorter distance. But, how I figure it, for me, is that once I can get comfortable with the distance, mostly just being in the positive actually, then I’ll work on the sizing later. I would like to get to the point of being somewhat consistent with my trading. And to me that means getting as close as possible to what my system will put out. Boy…I can only imagine…if I can be relatively close to what the system generates. Then, I would be good!! But, then, at that time, is when I will start messing with what my position sizing should be.
One more thing, Journal, that I need to mention. See, I read a lot on B.P.'s here. And of course it’s so beneficial to hear what more experienced traders think like. But, I do have to say, there is one thing that I will never, (at least all the way up to this point anyway) scribe to. Everybody, and I mean everybody, uses the method of risk/reward plotting. I mean, I understand completely. But I don’t want to trade that way. So basically, what their all saying is, that you should pick where you want to get in, where you want to get out, and have it all planned out (the parameters of the trade). And therefore, since you do that, you will be able to come up with, (before you actually trade it) how much risk is present to how much reward. Like 1:2. Or 1:3 ratio. You know, I just can’t do that. I think it’s smarter, and I would want, the market to tell me when it’s done trending. Or basically when I should get out. I kind of think the market loves trends. So, I would want to follow, rather than determine when I should be getting in and out. Man…I tried that before. Just look at the beginning of this thread. I wanted to make a certain amount of pips every month. And boy, did I try. It’s all documented. That’s impossible. The market cannot be tamed. I think you should not even try to put expectations on it. It’s just going to do what it wants to do. So, I have come to the conclusion that it would be better for me to follow. Period. Not predict. Not expect. Not hope. Not rationalize. Simply follow. And make that a science. Get good at following. And, as you know, I have realized that it would be easier for me to follow average price, than actual price. But to get back to the risk/reward thing. How do I know what’s a good reward anyway? I don’t. So why play that game? Who am I to think that I should be making this or that amount? Well, I don’t. I don’t want myself to be thinking I deserve anything, actually. (Everything is a gift from God anyway) So, I say, “Hey Mr. Market…can I follow you? Well, I sure am gonna try my best to.” Therefore, I will not be having a predetermined get out place, until I get the signs to do so. I think that’s what it means when traders say ‘let your winners ride’.

Ok Mike,enough babbling already.
Yeah, your right. Let’s get on with it.
Well, I got one mission. It’s simple. Get in at the crossover price. Stay in. Get out at the crossover price. How hard can that be? Well, look, it is difficult. What I’m trying to do is presently get in at a point (price) that is an average. Which means that it’s past data. So, how do I reconcile the past with the current?
Well, first off, the more I concentrate on making my trades match what my table shows the better. I will have to utilize my entry orders smartly. Use all of the different clues that I can find. And just do whatever I can that would be considered following the market, instead of predicting it.
Don’t worry Journal, you’ll see it all take place.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!
Good Morning Mike! Talk to me.
Well, you know me Journal, I’ve been working on it. Been so busy. Every morning time is been taken up completely, so no naps squeezed in. And on the weekend, I take the opportunity when we have nothing going on, to jump on and continue on with the backtesting stuff, and just refining my trading plan. But, speaking of that, looks like I got to get you up to snuff on something.
So, as I’ve been working on this, something bothers me. As you know, I’m keeping track of stuff, at the end of every day. So, at the bottom of my table, I’m keeping track of the total amount of pips that are accumulated in whatever trend we’re in. But, I was finding that I needed to differentiate between 2 different things. Let me show you, then I’ll explain.

Here’s the latest on CAD/JPY, because their the last pair on my table. But, look at the bottom. I got two rows there. Now, what I have had, at the very bottom there, is the total amount of pips of every pair added up. Let’s see if I can give a definition of those 2 bottom rows. (First off, those 2 rows will show me a birds eye view of what the JPY is doing accumulatively). The very bottom row is the total amount of pips that I would have accumulated if I were in the correct trend. Green equals the JPY strong, (long). Red equals the JPY weak (short). Since the CAD/JPY is shown, what I would be adding up here, for them, is the second row down, on the top bar. 191 / 190 / (142 is the total for the month, so I wouldn’t add that up / then, 156 / 146 / etc…And here’s the perfect place to show you exactly how I come up with those figures. Look at Dec 4th and 5th. You can see that on the 4th a crossover took place, at 87.726. It’s a crossover going up (5 going above the 9, light blue just went above the dark blue). Now, leading up to this point, all I’ve been doing is adding up the end of day pips and having a total. Let me remind you that I’m trading the average price, so I’m basically only looking at the 5 (light blue) line. On Dec 1st, my total, end of day pips, equaled 156. Then on the 4th the crossover took place which ends the bull run for the Yen, at 87.726. So, since the 5 ema was last at 87.623, I just subtract that from the crossover. Which is a minus 10 pips. So, that ends up to be a total of 146 pips (it’s the last green number up there) for that JPY strong run, for this pair. You can see how the pip count diminishes heading into the crossover. 191/190/156/146. Now. I’m going to keep track to see how strong the trend goes the other way (JPY short), (even though I don’t trade them short…only long). Now, I have the crossover, then end of day 5th comes and the 5 ema is at 88.191. The difference between those 2 points is 47 pips, going the other way. And that’s how I have up there 47 pips, in the red. Then the next day the 5 ema ends up at 88.068, which is 13 pips going the opposite way. So, I just minus 13 from the latest running total of 47, which comes out to be 34. Which is the same thing as taking the crossover point (87.726 minus 88.068). It’s all the same. 34 pips for that trend. All this does is tell me how strong of a trend is taking place by adding up the amount of pips the 5 ema (light blue) takes on —from the crossover. And eventually to the back-crossover.
I’ll show you what my table looks like on the chart. The days are matched up.

Yeah boy, forget price. That’s all over the place. I’m shooting for average price. And to be more specific, the 5 ema price, See the crossover there? That ended the bull run for the Yen. Now it’s going the other way. Which means I will not be in. But just look at what I was looking at on end of day Wednesday of this week. That real big red candle. Guess what’s going through my mind at this time? “Yep, I missed the boat. Price just blew past my 5 line.” How can I get in if it’s after-the-fact? This is what I have to deal with all the time. But, I’m learning. I held fast, because I knew it was Wed., and there’s normally always a turn before the end of the week. Sure enough…it happens. But, the real most important thing here for me to see is a crossover. That is my signal. And boy, it’s not easy. Can you imagine looking at intraday Thursday? See how price dropped down a good bit? I bet you in real-time that 5 crossed down below the 9 line, when price was at the bottom. But, thank God I hold onto my principles. “End of day price is most important”. Plus I don’t look until end of day anyway. Price wants up. Also, we don’t have any crossover happening either. But boy…at the present time…we are close now. There ain’t many pips separating 5,9.21 and price. Just look at my table for the specifics. 17 pips separates price down to the 9 line.
Anyway…I hopped on a bunny trail there. I want to finish a point. And make another one. I need to view my table again, sorry.

So…it hit me. I want (need) to know what are the spreads between the 5 & 9, all by themselves. That’s how many pips are separating those 2, to tell me the strength or weakness of that trend. And that is different than what the cumulative pips are from the beginning of the crossover is. There is a difference. And that is what I have up there above the ‘cumulative running trend pips row’. It’s the first row, in the individual look. And at the very bottom, it’s the first row below that black line. That is the total of all my 7 pairs, down there. So, on Dec 1st, the netted amount of pips for all pairs equaled 82, for the negative. Meaning they added up to be JPY trending weaker pips. Even though the CAD trended 4 pips weaker to the JPY, the other pairs apparently are trending higher to the Yen. Then on the 4th, the CAD turned (12 pips) and joined the others and the total equaled 120 pips. Well, we can see the progression of how the week turned out. Something did happen during mid week, and caused the Yen to get pretty strong. But, it didn’t last too long. All this does is show me a big picture of the flow. Right now, the Yen is on the weak side. Cause it’s red. And I probably shouldn’t be in any trades. Also, that last row there tells me that there are 499 pips accumulated, of all the pairs, to a netting JPY trending weak, from all of their crossover points. All i can say is, there’s been a big change from like a week ago. This gives me perspective.

So, I wanted to show you that Journal. I sure hope this will be the very last thing I modify on my table. I mean, I can’t imagine I need any other data accumulated. Everything here is important.
And, there was something else that bothered me, late in the week. I realized that I really need some way to boil down all of this data. It’s a diagnosis thing. Everything I do must have a good reason for it. So, this is what I came up with. Take a look at my mind map, for this weekend.

All of this is the most important stuff. These are my clues. The Total Pip Spread is what I just got done explaining to you. (5/9 pip spread only) But, I have below that the individual numbers. And we can see that the only pair that is trending in favor of the Yen is the AUD/JPY. The crossover took place and now it’s 4 pips into it. And if I add them all up, it better add up to the last number (105)… Yep, it does. And the way I look at the ‘Total Trend Spread’ is this…If I were to be trading against the JPY, and have gotten in at every crossover point, this is the amount of pips that I would have, in total, up to this point. Don’t forget, it’s based off of the 5 ema line, not price. And of course, we have the line-up. At the top is the daily, and at the bottom is the weekly time frame look, on the weekends. Yeah, it’s evident also on the daily, of how the JPY jumped mid week, but then fell again. Is interesting. Then, the ‘Crossovers’. I surely need to know if there are any, for the JPY of course. Yes, there is. AUD/JPY. Well, this tells me that I should be in this pair then, huh. Well, look below. This is the trades that I’m presently in. Now, Journal, don’t beat me up just yet. Oh, you mean why am I wondering why your in with the CHF? Of course, please explain. Cause I don’t see a crossover with them yet.
I know, I know. But, I did tell you that I’m gonna have some losing ones, in order to catch the crossover point. Let’s look at the table. I’ll show you what happened this week.

First off, this is why I got in with the AUD. As soon as I placed the trade, I took a picture. Did it crossover? Yep. This all was like short of an hour into that next day. They were moving down. Ok. Ok. I admit. I wanted in before the ship left the dock. I was thinking this would be the closest I can get to the crossover point.
So, same goes with the CHF.

It was Thursday night. Friday’s candle was just being printed. Now, Journal, look back at Wednesday’s candle. (This was just like what happened with the CAD, remember?) Sure, I’m thinking the ship left the harbor, and I missed out. But, I’m gonna wait to see what happens before the end of the week. Thursday comes. And here I am now. Price came back up pretty dog-gone close to the crossover point. Yay! I can get in now. And it doesn’t take long for price to be printing red. (We’re only talking about less than an hour into the day Friday). So, I got my signal, price came back up to me, and now I’m getting in. So…how did the end of the week print?

Dog-gone…What can I say? I guess price continued to turn on up. Well, that’s all good and nice. But, the question now is, what’s the plan? Well, since I don’t know where price wants to go, how about my clues? What are they telling me? I mean, that’s what they are there for, right? Look back at my analysis chart. There is so much red going on. Sure it can come back on down. But, you know what? I’m not going to play the ‘hope’ game. I need to get out of this trade. The CHF/JPY one. It crossed back over, and it’s that simple. I’m out.

You can see the crossovers on the 7th, and 8th. So, from the top. Technically, there are 3 pips of a spread from the 5 & 9, but since that is red, it’s trending CHF strong. Then there are 7 pips total accumulated for a CHF trending trade. That’s the crossover minus the 5 ema. Then on down you can see where my trade was taken. I’m gonna jump at the open. Then on down is the weekend lineup (weekly t.f.). That tells me it’s JPY trending the strongest can be. But, the prices are pretty close together. I’m not taking much stock in the higher time frames. I guess I skipped the monthly t.f. look. At Dec 1st, that tells me that the CHF is trending stronger to the JPY (5 above 9). Price is above the 21 line, again, the CHF stronger. I don’t know…I’ve been losing interest and faith in the longer time frames. It’s just not automatic, or a sure thing. I mean, look, I would say this…CHF stronger on monthly. JPY stronger on the weekly. And the daily…who knows. It’s been going back and forth. JPY been stronger leading up to Dec., but now has been turning. My only point here is that I’m not going to care much about the monthly, and weekly line-ups. All I really care about now, is where the crossovers are on the daily. I’m getting out, taking a loss, because it switched back. It’s that simple. No more hoping it’s gonna come back down, even though it’s only a couple pips away.
Anyway…that’s my explanation Journal to why I got in, and now, what’s my plan.
And with the AUD/JPY, well, I am staying in till I see a crossover back the other way. Simple.

It does kind of bother me that my entry point doesn’t exactly come close to the crossover point. You have to understand Journal, it’s not easy. I guess I could have waited till Friday, cause that’s the only time price came back up to the 85.18 crossover point.
It’s tough.
But, my bottom line is, I’m not going to miss out on the next JPY strong trend. And surely there will be enough pips to make up for the losses that I incur, at the beginning.
Stick around Journal…your gonna see some good stuff happen, with my trades.

Mike

[m.k.a]

this baklava is so good

huh you know baklava , its good to see you take that with your morning coffee , i love coffee and teas but i cant take them gives me adrenaline rush recently im off of that for some time now

[MikeWolski]

Good Morning Journal!
Wow. Are we getting close to Christmas. It’s just next week, pretty much at this time. It will be a nice long Christmas weekend, ending on Monday, which is just so awesome. And guess what Journal? I will be off of work the following week, (in between Christmas & New Years). So, needless to say, I can’t wait till next week at this time. I will be pretty dog-gone happy.
So Mike…have any kind of plans when your off?
Well, you know me Journal, I will still get up at 3. And be able to enjoy all the time I’ll have to be working on my business. Every time I take vacation-time off. I look forward to this time, for the business, so much! So…back to your question…well, yes. I will have the end of year review. Boy…I tell ya…I don’t know of anyone who takes more of the ‘before, during, after’ perspective on things, more than me. I’m sure I did that last year, so I’ll have to revisit that post. But anyway, I have that in mind to do next week Journal. I am looking forward to doing that. And so, other than that, nothing more different. Oh, that reminds me, me and Trish do this very thing. Every single year, (at a nice restaurant) heading into the New Year, we will go over where we were at last year at this time, how the year went, what do we have to look forward to. I make this a major priority for us Journal. And she likes doing that also. (She has such a good memory! Which is most beneficial for us.) But, if you want perspective, I believe, you must consider the past, present, and (project) the future. You just need to know where you came from, and where you are going. So, don’t worry Journal, you’ll get your dose. It’ll be fun.
Mike…don’t sing it…bring it! Can’t wait either!
So Journal…man…I got to show you something. I think I have gotten to the end of my numbers. This is exciting. This only makes sense. I gave you heads up on what I’ve been up to, in the last couple weeks. Well, now, the final result. No more searching. I’m done. All the data that I need, is complete. And it’s simple! Look, this is it.
You know, that I’m trading average price. So therefore, that is what I’m going to look at. The 5 & 9 ema’s. Well, I’m looking at their spreads. I believe this will tell me just how strong the JPY is. So, how about a visual. All I’m doing is adding up the total 5/9 pip spread, of all 7 JPY currencies. And put down into one chart. So, without further due, here it is. I’m gonna give you 4 charts. It’ll start from July and run to the present.

I guess I need to do the explaining as we move along. So, if you remember, I had my best trades take place between July and August of this year. This is the reason why! In the middle, where the numbers, is zero (0). Below that is negative, and above is positive pips. Remember, these are all just added up 5/9 pip spreads. This chart is the result of these numbers.

This is how I look at this chart. When the line is moving up, that means the Yen is getting stronger across the board. (That’s when I should be in some trades) When the line is going down, the Yen is getting weaker. (I should not be in trades) Don’t you remember…July 12th I started trading with the USD, and just let that run through Aug. Well, by the way this chart looks, I could have been getting into some trades earlier on in July. So, let’s continue. Looks like there’s a top there in Aug.

Uhh…yeah. That was a top. And all it did was move on down. All I needed to know, back then, was that I shouldn’t have been in any trades. I should have taken profits, and then waited it out till the next move on up. Well, looks like at the end of Sep. was a good time to be getting in. Let’s continue.

So, the end of Sep till the middle of Oct was a good time to be in some trades. Then we see it kind of levels out. Sure, the pip spread was in the positive, but pretty much hovers right around 0. Well, let’s take it the end. Here’s the present view.

Well, we had a top towards the end of Nov. Then moving into Dec., it was all negative pips, for the most part.
Now Journal, I need to explain something. I am not basing my trading off of this chart (although I probably could), but this is just a reference. This is my perspective. This is a flow. This will be some sort of prerequisite to my trades. Cause, you know how I trade. I mean, what makes me get into a trade? When I print a crossover, as I have shown you on my table, that means I should be in the trade. And I need to get out at the reverse crossover. It’s all in black and white, on my table. I believe in that 100%. But, concerning this chart, I’m not going to make any hard rules to follow. Like, if it’s below the 0 line not to be in a trade. I guess this will be sort of like a confirmation piece of data. But, regarding my exits, I think it’ll come more in handy. It could help me to be getting out of a trade before the back-crossover takes place. I mean, all you have to do is look back at the month of Aug. During the middle, I should have seen how it all was just too high, and should have seen the end coming.
Well, I am continuing to come up with the previous months data. I’m in last June, (almost done with that month). But, that’s what I’ve been doing with my spare time, and plan on continuing to do, which is retrieving more and more past data. Well, all I have to say is, get used to seeing this Journal. This is exactly what I’ve been working towards. So much of my plan is coming together. I feel so good about my system.
And you might remember how last weekend I was bothered by wanting a sort-of bottom line analysis. So, that’s what I’ve been doing also. I will be showing you every single weekend this sort of mind map. And here’s this weekends bottom line.

Well, the “crossovers”. This tells me all who are in a positive crossover (JPY positive). The “trades” show me what trades I am presently in. Also where I got in at. So, according to my system, the “crossovers” and “trades” should be the same. Well, as you see there, it isn’t. I’m not in with the USD. I’m gonna show you why. But, as you see, that’s my next action. So, it all kind of makes sense, when you see my pip spread chart. The end of it is moving on up. This is the first time it hit a positive pip value since 2-3 weeks now.
So Journal…it’s game on! At the present, I’m doing good. I got some pips under my belt (shown in green).

Well Journal…looks like I’m gonna cut this now. I need some more coffee. Then, I want to come back and do some explaining on how I got into those 4 trades so far. This is pretty important for me. You want details? I got them.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Mmmm…Oh my…brownie…so good…
It’s the little things in life…
I’m so thankful.
Man! That was good! I appreciate all the things Trish makes for me. She is so good to me.
And in another perspective…All good things come from above.
Ok. So. Speaking about perspectives…how did I get into these trades this week? Well, looks like I got to pull out the table. It explains everything.

Well, I can’t remember exactly when I placed that trade. It was a sell stop limit order. And it took. So, sometime Tuesday it did. Apparently price reached on down, picked it up, and rose on up. All I was doing, at the time that I put in the order, was try to pick out where the crossover would happen. That is a difficult thing to do! Trying to know where the average of the past 5 days will crossover down over the average of the last 9 days. (light blue down over dark blue) Well, it finally did on Thursday, at 133.134. I picked 132.867. shrug . Kind of close. 27 pips of a difference. But, this is what tells me what to do. And all I got to do is obey. See that crossover on the 14th? As long as I am sort of close to that. And I’m in. I am doing what is right. I am successful. It’s that simple. So, you can see my trade up there, and now, all I do is wait it out to the other crossover. I trust my system so much that it doesn’t matter what I think, if I obey, I will absolutely be successful. And so far, so good. How about my clues? At the top, that’s the pip spread. It was coming down. And yet, turned positive! All I have to say is, this is a successful trade so far. Man…I’m even happy about what the weekly time frame standings show at the present. Price is moving down below some levels. No crossovering, but relatively close to the 21 line.

So, that’s nice. Let’s move on to another one. The Pound.

Well, same thing. I placed a sell stop limit order. Then it took. Was on the early side, but my philosophy is to wait the week out. The numbers on top were coming down. And WOW…Friday was the day it happened. The crossover. But, again, look at where. I got in (my best guess for the crossover price) at 150.47 . But it actually took place higher, at 150.931 . So, I did not get in at the crossover, but 46 pips lower. That’s the best I can do. So, even though it looks like I got in early, I didn’t.

Then came the CAD. This is a good one.

You can see the pip spread, up top. There wasn’t many pips separating. So, again, all I do is try to guess where it will take place. How many pips of a difference? 15. I don’t think that’s too bad, at all. And of course, I’m below it again. I guess I need to learn that when the pip spread is not many pips, then the crossover price will be not too far down.

And just so you know, this is not my broker. So, the charting prices do not match. What I do, at the end of the day, is have my broker charts up, and this one (NetDania). I will pick a price (entry order) on this platform, then go to my broker and place it there. That’s why price looks like it didn’t actually go down to where I actually entered.
So, that’s all good and nice. My main concern is, that I’m in a trade somewhat close to when the crossovers happen. Then, to stay in until the a somewhat close reverse crossover. It’s simple. So, for the remainder of my life, all I will be doing is refining the entries and exits. It’s a no-brainer. It’s all about the print of the crossovers on my table. And see, that’s different than looking at the regular charts. Just look up there at the CAD/JPY. Surely price is toggling above and below the 5 & 9 lines. I could have easily been fooling myself that a crossover will take place imminently. In fact, every single day since the 5th of Dec price has dropped below the 9 line, in fact, every line. And that’s my point. I want to trade the average price. Not present price. That’s everywhere! So, I will just concentrate on the printing of the crossovers. That should keep me closer to the goal.

Now…for the bad news. Kinda.
That dog-gone USD/JPY.

So, Monday, Tuesday, have doji candles. Price extremely high. I’m not even considering guessing where a crossover could happen. It’s just way to far away, the spread between the 5 & 9, at that time. Then Wednesday comes. Price shoots down below everything, then ends between the 9 & 21. So, this is what I was thinking, at that time. Look, I was in with some others. I wasn’t in a hurry for another one. But, that shouldn’t really matter. I thought this would be a good time to follow the philosophy of waiting for a retreat back up to it. Well, Thursday came and ended. Geeeez. Now what. Well, we still have Friday. Thank God. At least I’m up in the vicinity area now. And then the crossover happens also. Look, the crossover happened at 112.752 . It’s only 20 some pips away from the present price landing now. So, I guess I need to check what happens at the open. Man…wouldn’t that be great if there was a nice gap on up? Then maybe I can get in on the lucky number (112.752) That’s the ideal price for me to get in at. Why? Because it was printed! I trust my system so very much.
Well Journal, that’s my plan. You even seen it on the mind map.
So…I thought I was done here. But, I forgot about one more trade that I’m in. CHF/JPY. I guess this is interesting to show you. Look.

Let’s back it up a little here. Sure, my system is not perfect. Look at Dec 7th. We have a crossover. Ok. So that means I need to be in somewhere around that point. Well, it crossed back over the other way. And that means that I need to be out. Ok. And that’s what I did. Took a loss. But, I don’t mind. It will happen. I lost 64 pips worth. As long as I get out in a short amount of time, no problem buddy. Then comes another crossover. BTW…look at the 5/9 pip spread. That’s always an interesting clue to be aware of. But anyway, I got back in again. The sell stop order took, just like I had going with the other Majors (EUR,GBP). How close did I come to the crossover? 24 pips. Not all that bad, I guess.

Ok Journal. I got to run.
Man…I’ve been wanting to also talk to you about another thing. Maybe next time. But, how about a teaser.

Uhhh…didn’t I say I was trading average price? Well, if that is not any closer to average price, nothing is! Needless to say, I’m exploring this.

Mike out.