My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

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385

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.
Long time no see.
You ok?

I’m good Journal, thanks.
I guess I’ll talk now.
See, I was gonna wait some more time, to see this thing play out. But, the more I see it, and experience it, my new system, the more I’m convinced. This is gonna work. I’m just tired of coming on here and thinking I finally got it.

Look. This is not going to surprise you, from all of what I’ve been coming up with. Well, one aspect of it definitely will. But, from the beginning, and still, I feel it in the core of me.

Yeah, I know Journal. Here we go again.
Well, maybe this will be the absolute last time I change any fundamental parts of this.

This is me…to the T.
Hold on to your pants.

Let’s see. How should I put it. Well, a lot of this has been articulated before. But with one super big twist. Trust me, I have heard of no one who does this. Then again…I’m not just anyone either.

That’s how we like it, Mike.
What do you got?

Plain and simple. My system is the Master Gunners Methodology ( I guess it’s not all that original).

- DAILY TIME FRAMES
I absolutely do not look at anything lower. Or higher also.

-TREND FOLLOWING

- WHEN (IN)
My target area to get in is at my 5/9 crossover place. As close as possible. No more than a day away from it. Sure it’s tricky. But, that’s the plan. You should know that I have worked on that for some time now.

- WHEN (OUT)
Same thing. Crossover.

Now, before I tell you the kicker, you should know by now that my 5/9 ema lines tell me everything I need to know about a trend. When it starts. When it ends. Now. In that context, this is what I realized. That there is no such thing as a RANGING condition.
If something has trended, then consolidates, well, it’s still technically trending, to me. When the lines cross back over, it’s then, that it changes trend. I’m fully aware of the fact that the ranging condition can go on for some time. Then someone would be technically be correct that it’s ranging. But, I will count that as still trending in the way that it was, previously. So, in my book, it will be trending one way or the other. Plain and simple.

But, the thing that extremely impresses me about Master Gunners Methodology is about how there’s diversification involved when you are in multiple pairs. Well, the more and more I thought about it, this is the only thing that makes sense to me. Given the fact that I just mentioned, that the pairs are only trending one way or the other, no other possibility. (Plus, you should know by now that I go one way or the other.)

- WHO
Every pair.

Yep. I said it.
All 28 pairs. And you know what? IT WORKS. There’s so many benefits to this. Now, tell me, do you thing I will ever be one to say, "Man…I wish I would have picked this pair, cause it’s taking off!" Nope. Cause I will be in it. And the chances are greater that it would have been on the slope of trending that particular way, than the trend for the other way. I know about those consolidating wedge flags. The more tightly they consolidate, the greater the boost will be. Well, ok. I have one day of a cushion to be in on that one.

See, I’m tired of the whole guessing game of who, and when, those pairs that will take off for days at a time. All I need to do is position myself correctly. Which is way more easier to do than by being lucky.

And what keeps me afloat, more than anything, is being diversified. Look. I must keep track of everyone. It pretty much comes down to who I’m heavy with, and who I’m heavy against. But, when you see it across the board, you definitely get the clues when things are beginning to change.

I remember when it started, only last week. First of Oct. The beginning of the last quarter for the year. So, I got this whole quarter to tell me the results. But, and I knew this was going to be the case, it was going to take some time to adjust to where I want to be in with everyone. On the first of the month, I did get in with all 28 pairs. Whoever was trending. Sure, there was a lot who was trending late in their cycles. But, it did give me the sense of diversification. But of course, I had to make changes at the end of a day, throughout the week. My account was not all over the place. And I can tell when I made the proper moves.

I remember being long with the CAD. All seven pairs. Yeah, that was a good run. But, it didn’t last too long. Because they were late in their trend cycle. Ok. So, I switched, going the other way. On some of them. Oh, the CHF. Man, they became real weak. And still. Oh, and the Commodity pairs were strong, at the time. But, we all know how they dove. So, yeah, I just have gone the other way on them.

I guess one point here is that I definitely know the strengths and weaknesses that are present. Across the board. Well, I have to keep track of them all. It’s all symmetry. Someone will be trending 7-0. And it goes down from there. 6-1. 5-2. 4-3. Etc…

Whoever has their 5 ema line above their 9 ema line, is trending high. It’s a no brainer. The strongest currency will be trending high in conjunction to every other currency. Likewise with the weakest currency, trending against. Well, the point here is that I deem this to be the best way to determine what a trend is. Everyone has their own method. And I’m sure there are a thousand different ways to determine what the trend is.

Man, I even remember Clint giving a big speech on Master Gunners thread about how important it is to find your way of determining what the trend is. This is mine. And I trust it. I trust this more than I trust anything else. Have for quite some time now.

- POSITION SIZING
Well, Master Gunner used a very good way. He went with whatever account size you have, you went with that amount of a lot size. Example, if you had, say, $300,000 of an account balance. You went in with 300,000 units. If you have a $1000.00 account balance, well then, you go in with 1,000 units.

I remember it was only a couple hours before the opening bell, Sunday 5pm here. Oct 1st. I took the dog for a walk. Was alone. And it hit me pretty hard that I shouldn’t go in with that much. There is a reason (talk about that in a little bit). But, I decided to go only half of that. That would’ve been way too much for me to handle. In regards to the whole account amount, I think it’s good. That’s the dollar amount to the unit amount. But, I have something else to worry about. And I know that I made a good move, by only going in with half of the amount of my account dollars for the units to get in with, on each pair.

Look. I don’t want to be on here all day. I’m gonna have to make this short. But, since I found out that my unemployment decision very well could take very so much longer, like to the end of the year, I made a big move. Since, I’ve been getting paid, from them, ever since July 1st, and know that I will have to pay them back if they decline it, that I was not going to let that money just collect in my bank account. See, one hand doesn’t know what the other is doing. The system gives it to you before the final decision gets made.

Well, I put that money to good use. I put it into my trading account. $4,500. So far. But, don’t forget that I already had $500. in my trading account. Basically, I’m playing with 5k now. But the thing is, I can’t lose more than my original 500. Cause, if by chance they want their money back, I need to be prepared to dish it out. Well, I’m not getting any younger, waiting around for them to decide. The last call I made to them, the lady said it could take a very long time. They have to deal with everybody in the state.

Well, talked to Trish about it, and she agrees that I should do what I want to do. And that’s the reason why I’m not going in with a size that matches my account balance. Sure, 500 dollars is nothing when you have a balance of 5k. And plus, I’m just not going to risk a whole lot. If this system is going to work, I need to experience it first.

Let’s see. I only have numbers for the first week, and consequently, for the month.
How’s 4.4% increase sound?
Pretty dog-gone good to me.
Man, I couldn’t imagine what it would be like if I went in with whole units for account dollars. But look, I’m in 28 pairs. One pair would be 5,000 units. That’s around 44 cents a pip. So that will be around $12.32 for every one pip, for all of the pips, in every pair, that takes place. I don’t know, for some reason, I think that’s a little too high for me. Given the fact that I can’t go below 4,500 threshold on my account balance. You know?

By the way, I plan on subsidizing my account, from everything I get from them. I think I counted that it should come out to around 8k, by the end of the year.

But, it is leverage for me to use, to boost up my account, till the end of the year. And if they come knocking, well, then I’ll take it out. And we’ll see how I look at years end. Then again, if they accept it, well then, I’m in absolute great shape! Cause it will be all my money. All of it.

Trish says that she can take us to the end of the year. But, not after that. So, it will be interesting to see how I look at the end.

Ok Journal. I’m done talking.
Well, one more thing.
I have decided that my only course of action, is to get my own business. I have decided that I don’t want to work for anyone, anymore. So, all my efforts will go to that. Somehow, someway, that is what I’m shooting for. Naturally, it’s this business, that I’ve been working on. Just today, I signed up for a day long class, next week. Downtown Pgh. It’s this program that helps veterans. Called Boots for Business. Basically, it’s a program to help veterans, in regards to starting your own business. Many resources. This is an introduction to entrepreneurship. Well, we all know what I have in mind. I will have to see what kind of help I can get from this.

I kind of feel bad that I served so long ago, and not really in wartime. I mean, who am I? No one special. But, technically, yeah, 6yr veteran. So, I do qualify. But, I do have it in mind that before the year ends, I want an official business. Like, registered and legit. On the books. This is what I want. I just hope that it will become a legitimate one. See, making money is one thing. Making a business is another. I want a business. I’m tired of the master/slave relationship. Reminds me of the profile that I set up for me, on their website. On the ‘More about yourself’ part, I put…I want to control my own destiny. I want my own business.

Thanks Journal.
Mike

6 Likes
386

like the new strategy. It wil be interesting to review at the end of the month. Good luck.

387

How are you doing, @MikeWolski? Haven’t heard from you in a while!..

1 Like
388

Good Morning Journal! (…Manxx also)

Good Morning Mike!

Ok. I’ll talk.

Everything’s good. Been super busy.
Still on the same schedule. 3:45 wake up. Stretch. Exercise. Stretch. And, finally, by 5, ready for that first cup. Then, me and Trish go for our walk, with the dog. So, you know, between the news, another cup of coffee, shower, and just getting ready, that’ll wrap up our morning. I do bid her good-bye just after 7. So then, it’s working time for me till she comes home at 5. This has been our routine since the beginning (July 1st). Oh, and yeah, I still am not considered a cook (never will be), but I do know how to follow directions. So technically speaking, I’ve been the cook. I don’t mind. Whatever it takes to make her happy. I do remember (last year) what a good feeling it was to come home and bam, dinner is served. So now, it’s my turn to serve it up.

In any case, many changes and updates have taken place, in regards to me. I guess the biggest one has to do with the help I’m about to embark on. Tomorrow. But, it started about 2 weeks ago. I attended a day long class. Was called ‘Boots to Business’. It’s a program that is spear headed by these entities…SBA (Small Business Association), VA (Veterans Administration), and the University of Pitt. Basically, it’s a program to help veterans start their own business. So, I came out of that with the knowledge of all the resources that are available. But, it’ll first really start once you get in touch with a coach. And that’s precisely what I’m going to do tomorrow, morning.

There was about 20 of us veterans there, for the class. Some had their own businesses up and running already, but I guess they were interested in the government contracts that are available, to veteran owned businesses. Anyway, I was talking to the guy who sat next to me, during one of the breaks. So then, as I was talking, this lady came by and dropped her card on my binder, on the table. And walked away. I only found out afterwards that she’s in the business of one-on-one coaching, to help people start their own business. I thought she was soliciting work, apart from the class. But later found out that she’s a good person to talk to, as a coach. So, I emailed her, after the class, and expressed serious interest in working with her. Bottom line is, we’re meeting tomorrow.

I kind of don’t know what think. There’s been so much going through my mind lately, just about the whole business thing. I don’t really want to get into it here, but, I have a feeling that she might be able to clear up a lot of things up for me. But, needless to say, I need direction. I’ll tell you what I know for sure. I want my own business. And there is only one business for me ( you should know what that is by now).

The thing is, I don’t quite know how to go about it. You know, it was only this morning, that I just might be changing my mind about something. To back it up a little, I’ve only ever wanted to be in business for myself. I want my own trading business, for myself. That’s the only thing I’ve had in mind. But, well, and I haven’t talked to her yet, but somehow it just doesn’t seem like such an admiral, feel good purpose. See, at the class, one of the things that we learned is that your business idea should have meaning. Let’s see. I do remember this equation, that they put out. Opportunity = Problem + Solution. So, you know, in the context of coming up with a business idea, that seems to be the thing to solve. And, I mean, it does make sense. But, only in the context of having a good or service to offer the public. Man, the whole time that I was in that class, I kept thinking none of this applies to me! How in the world does speculating in the market produce meaning? It doesn’t.

Well, I know that my business has to do with investing. And somehow that is a different animal. I just don’t know how to reconcile my business idea to something that has meaning. The only way would be to make it a service to those who have money that they want a return on. Which, of course means, that I would have to work for them. And we all know that that’s precisely what a hedge fund does. But, I’m (was) against that. I don’t know, I think I might be changing my mind about that now. I really don’t like that idea. I would rather worry about my own account than any others.

But, on the other hand, if it will make real meaning out of what I do, then maybe I just might need to rethink about that. I don’t know. The bottom line is, I need a particular direction to go in. I need to see what she thinks. I will spill all my concerns to her, tomorrow.

Ok. That’s nice.

What else. Well, still no word on unemployment. Still getting paid. But, as I mentioned last time, I’m making good use of that money. Hey, if they want it, I have it for them, no problem. But, I am hoping that I can go to the end of the year with it all. I’m just trying to capitalize on this opportunity. I do have to tell ya. It’s nice to see a big account size (well, for me, anyway). I’ve never traded with this amount of money before. I’m getting close to the 7k mark. Look. Honestly. To me, the amount means nothing. It’s just, every now and then, I’ll realize how big the account is getting. Especially the two times a month that I put more into it. It’s just a number. I at least know, for myself, that the amount is not a factor. Believe me, there’s way more factors than the how much part. How about…direction that it’s going in…percentages…success or failure…the plan working out, or not…

Well speaking of that, I guess this is a good segway into how my plan worked out.
I didn’t.
It’s ok. See, I had a good first week. But, then the next 2 slowly but surely dwindled the account, just way too much. I mean, the only good thing was of how small my position sizing was kept to. It was as I stated before. But, over time, there’s simply too many variables to have control over. And it, in the long run (relatively speaking), it’s not efficient. But, it made me think though.

This is what I realize. Trading Forex, is all about relationships. I mean, compare it to any other financial security. There is none like it. It’s in a class all by itself. What we’re talking about here is 2 different securities against each other. You have to think about it that way. We’re not just trading supply and demand on a single thing (like everything else out there). Really, think about that. I don’t know, maybe all the money managers of the world might think and relate currencies to their other securities. Maybe treat them the same. Cause surely our charts will reveal the similar patterns than, say, gold has. Hence, technical analysis vs. fundamental analysis. But, the charts do look the same, of course!

What we are trading here is, in effect, whether one currency is greater or less in demand than the other currency. It’s all relational. And that has led me to see that the absolute best way to go about it is back to the good old strength vs. weakness method. I know Dennis made that a favorite way to trade in here lately. But, that is exactly what I determined back when I started. I was on to something back then, but, there were a lot of lessons that I needed to learn in the meantime.

Journal, do you remember all of the statistics that I used to come up with, in regards to strength and weakness? Well, there was a lot. So, I dug out all of the paper work that I saved. Man, talk about going down memory lane. I mean, I was into it. There’s so much data that I ran that I don’t even understand it all! It was like I was a different person back then. But, my only aim was to collect all that data in order to figure out how the currencies moved in conjunction to each other. Plus, and I knew this back then, that someday I could always go back and do some kind of backtesting. I knew it wasn’t for nothing, back then.

Well, thank God! Cause, I’m coming back around full circle now. I hate to say it, but I was a genius back then. Shoot. There was a method to my madness. Well, all I have to say now, is thank God for excel. Cause that surely makes life much easier. Boy, figuring out those function tabs was not easy. I finally got it though.

Anyway, from what I leaned in the last 3-4 weeks. And given my history. This is where I’m at now, with how I trade. I will pick 2 currencies. The strongest and the weakest. I trade them as complete. Meaning, one currency will have 7 trades with them, and the other will have 6 trades. So, I will only have 13 trades running at a time. There is the element of diversification, still present. Oh, and I go with a complete unit sizing to what my account balance is.

This is not yet completed. But, I tell ya, it works much better than what I was doing. It didn’t take long to see some positive results. Made my money back, and then some. So, it’s good to be above water. But look. There’s a lot of give, this way. What are the possibilities that I pick the actual strongest currency. And what’s the possibility that I pick the weakest currency. And I’m talking about in a weeks time. As long as I’m close to being right, I will have the edge. Like the present situation. Yesterday, after seeing how the day progressed, and by looking at the numbers, also realizing the end of month play, I decided to go long EUR. And short the JPY. Well, we should all know by now that I got one of them right ( cough Yen ). Not so sure about the EUR. But, I’m not jumping out just yet. The week has to play out. The good thing is that I’m still above water. I can lose, and am, on the EUR. But, as long as the JPY outperforms the losing of the EUR, then I’m safe.

I did notice some potential with the AUD, and the NZD. But, before I decided to go with the strongest one of those, the EUR showed some great strength yesterday. Well, I’m committed with my 2 pairs now. And go figure, those Comms are tearing it up today. Hmm. Oh well. At least we have some risk on taking place. That’s an important factor to consider.

Look. I’m not completely set up with the determinations of my 2 pairs yet. But, in the meantime, I will stay committed for the week. I believe the bottom line will be a positive, than a negative. Hey, given my style of trading, I am reaping the benefits of both the AUD, NZD, and even CAD going against the JPY. See, that’s the diversification that I was talking about.

Think of it. It’s all about relationships. It’s how they are relating to one another. Plus, I’m collecting more and more principles. Like the fact that you have a better chance at it by holding them longer… Strength vs Weakness… Minimal position sizing.

It’s coming together.
Seems like that’ll always be the case, with me.
But hey, as long as I’m making progress, then I’m fine with it.
I love this game, like nothing other!

Alright Journal.
Mike

PS. - If any thing earth shattering comes out of my meeting with that coach, tomorrow morning, I’ll tell.

5 Likes
389

Good Morning Journal!

Good Morning Mike.

Well, I figure I will clue you in on all of the things that have been happening with me lately.
Actually, a whole lot. And I got some time this morning to expound on that.

Let’s see. I just took a look at where I last left off at. Yeah, I met with that ‘so called’ coach. Actually, I met with a number of people since then, also. But that lady…man…she’s worthless. No help whatsoever. Never heard from her again. It’s like we didn’t even meet. Bottom line is, she’s not interested. She’s supposed to be in the business of helping others start their own business. I don’t know, there’s got to be something else going on with her. Absolutely worthless.

Well, I went back to the ‘Career Link’ ( Pa’s job career center). They are no help. Well, not directly anyway. See, I understand they are in the business of matching up employees to employers. Well, I’m in the business of starting up my own business. So, just some resources was what I got from them. Kind of like referral stuff. Well, actually, because of them, I signed up for ‘book a librarian’, in the Carnegie Library. It’s for an hour. Basically, it’ll lead me to potential other business owners. I just want to find those one’s who own and operate their own trading business. You know, just like what I am looking to attain. Well, that’s at the end of the month.

Then I had an appointment (yesterday) with a retired banker. He’s a mentor, who gives his time for advise and coaching, and this is all through the SBA (Small Business Administration), a federal program for small businesses. Well, it went ok. Basically, he expressed how hard it’s going to be in order to approach a financial institution, for any kind of funding, for the type of business I am trying to get up and running. Sure. I understand. This is a speculating, risky business. He did tell me not to worry about making it a legal entity. The only thing in question is the financing part.

Well, the thing that I got out of that meeting was this. He says that I need to draw up, and I’m calling it a ‘Profile’, of myself. Where I came from, on this journey. What I’ve experienced so far. Where I’m at. What are my projections. Etc…

Well, I did that yesterday. And I feel pretty dog-gone good about how I drew myself up. Do you want to see it? I’ll spill. I have nothing to hide. Btw…he said that it should be something short, like 2-4 paragraphs long. Man…that’s short. Well, here it is. Don’t laugh.

MIKE WOLSKI.docx (14.3 KB)

Great. It’s hidden. Anyway.
There’s one more major thing that I got going on. And, in fact, it’s going down in like 3 1/2 hours from now. Ready for this Journal?
I started a group.

From the website ‘MEETUP’. I did some searches on the web, to find who else has their own full time trading business, locally. Well, couldn’t find any. So, through this entity, I figure I will start my own group. It’s called ‘Pgh Traders’. I want this to be exclusively for all those who own and operate their own trading business. I’m not going to be too picky about what particular market they are in. But, we all would have something in common. Full time, business owner, traders.

Well, I got 2 hits! Our first meeting is at noon today. There should be 3 of us there (I hope). The purpose will be to network with each other, meet any needs, pull together resources, and just a place to where we can gather and share what we know. Hey, even if it’s just a time where we can tell stories and share our experiences, it should be constructive.

Look. It’s great we all here have this place to go to, for learning, communicating, etc…But there’s something about seeing people in the same boat as we are, in real life! Locally.

I hope this turns out to be something really good. We’ll see I guess.

Well Journal, I have to cut this a little short now. ( I have another appointment now…walking the dog)
I did want to talk about what I got going on, trading wise. You know, my trading operation.

I think it’s interesting.
Maybe when we get back. Cause I will have a couple more hours to spare.

Alright Journal.
Mike

3 Likes
390

Good luck with your thread! I’ll be stopping by to read your progress! Many happy returns

391

Ok Journal.
Where was we?

Oh yeah, market.

Well, none of this should be a surprise to you. But, this is precisely how I’ve always viewed the market. Think about it. I need to know what’s going on. I want to know. I mean, I need to know. This should do it. In short, who’s strongest, down to who’s weakest. These are my parameters.

The start of the month is the beginning. The end of the month is the end. I keep a running total of strength to weakness at points along the way. The biggest interval will of course be the entire months total. But then it’s divided up into sections. The most popular is daily. But then, I’ve divided up the daily time period into 3 parts. Well of course, right? We have the Asian session, the London session, and the US session. Therefore, for each day, I have 3 appointments, to tally the scores. This will, in effect, tell me what happened after each session.

So, for me (EST), I have a 3am, 8am, and a 5pm deadline to run the numbers. See, I want to know what happened during the Asian session. Who was strong down to who was weak. This reminds me of how a bank can compound their interest rate, for a payment plan. You know, instead of a once a year compounding period, maybe a monthly compounding period. It’s basically taking chunks all along the way ( I know it’s not that exact of a parallel, but it’s the idea behind it).

All along the way, all I’m doing is tallying the flow. So, in a minute, you’re going to see a lot of numbers. Just know that all these numbers are taken from the previous session. So, you can imagine that there’s going to be quite a bit of back and forth going on inside of a day. But the whole idea of this is to see the flow.

Hold on to your pants.

2018-11-14_0937
I have to take this chunks at a time. Cause my chart is going from left to right, as the month progresses. This is how the month started. Color coded. And all I’m dealing with is %'s. Let’s start from the beginning. I’m going to go through the progression, which ends at NFP for this particular table. The NZD started the month being up 5.41% against all of the other currencies, after the first session (Asian). Well, 5 hours later, I take another snap shot. And what I do is keep the running total going. So, the NZD ends up being the strongest currency after London pretty much gets going to 6.49% higher against all of the other currencies combined. And so, they end the first day of the month being 8.68% above all other currencies. We can see the progression of what happened during that day. Take a look at the EUR. During Asia they dropped -1.01%. But they boosted higher to a net .40%, which made them increase 1.41% during the London session. But…during the US session they came right back on down to end the day with -1.05% total for the day. Basically, I’m keeping track of the monthly increases, strong to weak, at these points within the day, in the context of the monthly tracking. Get it?

Now, since I want to know how the whole field is doing aggregately, that’s what those white numbers signify, at the bottom. What I do there is divide the field up into 2 groups. Either your in the positive or in the negative. These 2 days are divided up with 3 being positive and 5 being negative. Well, if your positive, and you increased, then it’s a positive number AND if your negative and you decrease, then it’s also a positive number. I basically want to know how much the positives are continuing and also if the negatives are decreasing. It’s the flow that I want to know, remember? Well, at the end of the first day we had a positive 18.85 figure (both session numbers added all up). That tells me that there was very much a flow happening. But just take a look at NFP day. Well, more precisely during the US session, there was an opposite flow taking place (negative -15.2). Well, for the entire day it shook out to a -2.11 figure. Which told me that there was more opposite flow happening than continual flow.

Ok. That’s nice. Here’s the following weeks numbers.

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Big picture analysis…Monday, Tuesday, & Wednesday went with the flow. The pinnacle took place on Tuesday. More precisely during that US session. Thursday began a turn. And by Friday’s end, we had some good retracements take place. Well, you have to remember that the beginning of the week went quite strong. So, it’s the natural course of flow. But, the positives and negatives surely shake out and become more clear as the month progresses, right? Well, all this tells me a lot of information. Strong to weak. How it transpired. Session by session. Running totals. This way I can see whether we have turns coming or not. Next table is this current week taking place.

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See, I can see how strong and weak everybody is against each other. I think this is valuable information. Given my time period constraints (monthly progression).

There will be many days I don’t even look at charts anymore. Yeah man, forget charts. All I need is these %'s. By the way, I switched over to Barcharts. Much better than Tradingview. My $30 a month goes to them now.

I’ll show you some other charts that I have.

2018-11-14_0940
Kind of the same thing as above, but this is simply DAILY end results.

So, you want to know how I calculate the strong weak data? Take a look.

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All those are end of day numbers, except for today (last column). Those are the 8am figures. It will be replaced with what I get at 5pm closing, to then turn into the end of day numbers.

I don’t know, there’s many ways to calculate strong/weak. I feel this is the best way. All I’m doing is taking it session by session, day by day, in the context of the month. Well, what do I need charts for? I know…support and resistance levels. Long term trend tracking. But, given the time frame that I trade, which is on the shorter side of things (days), and my perspective of the monthly flow of things, this is all I need.

Ok. Well, let’s get it all out, shall we?
I’ve kept track of my trading account balances. Hope you can understand it.

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Basically, under each Friday’s total account balance I have what the weekly % is (cream color). Under that is what the monthly % total is (green). Under that is what the quarterly total is (light blue). But, if you look, I switched strategies Oct 22nd. So, because of that, I’m tracking how I’m doing with that strategy. And that’s what that last box (light green), under the total capitalized line (dark blue), is.

Well, presently, I’m out of the market. That’s my ending account balance. Took profits out. I was in with the NZD strong, and the JPY weak. You should know that I trade complete currencies. One strong and one weak. 13 trades in total when I get in. I’m just waiting for the right time to get back in.

That’s one thing that I’m learning, more and more. I need to be on the sidelines way more than I’m in the market.

Always learning.

Ok Journal.
I’m done talking.

One more hour, then it’s Meetup time. Can’t wait!

Mike

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Good.
Morning.
Journal.

I know it’s been a long time. Sorry. Been busy.
But, I was just sitting here. In my office. In the dark. With my second cup of coffee. (Hmm) And, well, it was time for some reflection. Boy, I don’t know of anyone who puts all things more into perspection than me. Well, it is the last day of 2018. And I wanted to go back to the start of the year and really get into that mindset, where I was at, just to remember where I came from, exactly a year ago right now.

Then…guess what…you came to mind. And, I guess not too many people can do this, but all I have to do is go back to you…and read! So basically, this is going to help me. Now. Where was I? Then?

This was sometime at the end of December. And I was doing…well…what I’m doing right now.

Wow Journal. This is interesting. First off. Let me learn some lessons here about myself. I thought I had THE strategy. Wrong. I guess that does happen quite often. Thinking, I know something. Well, maybe that’s a lesson to remember. At the time, yes, it probably does feel like that will be the last strategy I will ever need. But fast forward a year, it was only a stepping stone, a work in progress.

Now. How about me making it a year of cement. Was it? Well…it’s funny that I wrote that, about my building blocks, cause that’s been what I have been working on so very hard these last few weeks. And I just finished yesterday morning, with it. I even told Trish that I believe I’m done.

Building blocks?

Yeah Journal. That was the biggest thing that I learned from my mentor. And I will never operate my business without this. It’s…

  • My mind maps.
  • My core trader skills.
  • My core trading structure.
  • My business organized.

I even developed the biggest mind map to my business. It’s called the Gateway into my business. Within that mind map encompasses all of the mind maps (subjects) into my business. So, whoever, or if ever, someone would want to know absolutely anything about me, my business, how it operates, how I operate, …I’m talking about anything regarding my business, it’s laid out. Well, take a look at what my desktop looks like

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The center top part, called the ‘Gateway’, will get you in. In essence, it will break down all of those mind maps in a much organized manner. But, within in, it would show you where I start, which will be with my Trading Culture, top left corner. Then you work your way around clockwise. These mind maps start with me, how I think, my values, basically all my internal workings that make this business happen.

Then, on the right, around 3 o’clock position, it gets into my strategy. That would be my ‘Trading Structure’. It’s pretty much explains how I generate money out of the market. And so, at the bottom (6 o’clock), will be stuff like where I keep track of the money flow. That’s going to be a separate Excel spreadsheet. One of these days, months down the road, I do want, not only an Income Statement, but a Balance Sheet and a Cash Flow Statement. That’s going to take some time to develop. But, the best I can do now is keep strict track of where all the money comes and goes from.

I do have an outline (Word Document) of the complete history of where I came from to where I presently am at, regarding my business. See, I developed that with the idea that I might have to show some institution, for the purpose of funding. But…nah…I don’t think I’ll have to rely on any kind of big money to get me through. That would’ve been called a Business Plan.

Anyway. All else is pretty self explanatory. There is one last thing I have to do. Last night, after a conversation with Trish, I realize that if something would ever happen to me, how would she be able to get into my trading account and withdraw out the money that’s in there? Well, at this point in time, she wouldn’t be able to. Cause she doesn’t know the passwords, and, in fact, anything about my broker. So, over there at about 9 o’clock or so, under ‘Forex Broker’, in there I will have to put in the instructions, in order to withdraw the account balance. Makes sense, right?

Ok. That’s all good and nice. All of that explaining, for the purpose of showing you that I have accomplished the task of putting together all of my building blocks. I, simply, do not see any other loose ends. All of this will answer any question about my business. Go ahead Journal, ask. The answer will be in there somewhere.

So, let’s continue. Where were we?

Yep. Well, I was building this year. At least that was true.

I am much closer to my goals.

But, this is what happened this past year.

The company I worked for, got bought out. New ownership took place. And then, by the end of June, we closed down. All over. Journal, you know about all that, cause I told you everything, in detail, as it unfolded. In any case, I decided to cut the cord. Leave the work force, and go at it alone.

And this is exactly where I’ve been at. Since July 1st. Right here in my office, every since. Needless to say, I don’t get out much. Who needs people?

Just kidding. Well, one part of me does not miss all that whatsoever. Bunch of gear heads. Dirt. Boys being boys. Nothing but blood, sweat, and tears. The pressures of slaving away, all for the stupid paycheck at the end of the week. And, well, that’s what I was. A slave. And, due to the kind of person that I am, I did work my butt off. I gave it all that I had. Cause that’s just who I am, and how I was raised.

On the other hand, I’m a lone bull. For the last 6 complete months, nothing has made me more happier than to be alone. Quietness. Working on what I want to work on. Whether I see another face or not, it won’t bother me. In fact, I can’t get enough of this peace and quiet. I’ve never been so happy…in my entire life.

It’s funny how I don’t ever hear from my buddy’s anymore. Cause about 3 months ago, all they wanted was for me to come work with them. They are completely busy, overworked, and in need of some serious help. 31 dollars an hour, I was offered. But when I told them I’m not moving backwards, in my life, they understood, and that was the end of that. Never heard from them again. All they want is what can make their lives better, and easier.

Anyway. Hindsight is 20/20. What I see happened last year was a year of CHANGE. All I know is that I’m-- growing…evolving…getting closer to where I want to be.

So Mike. What’s going to happen this year?

Journal. Let’s learn something here, huh. All I want to do is tell you facts. I will come on in here, in a year from now…STOP…I don’t even know for sure that I will be living. Should I even assume that I will be alive! Hey…I guess the point there is that you can’t take anything for granted. So, all I will do is cherish each and every day to the fullest. Be grateful for everything I have (life). And do the best that I can.

Facts.

  • As I have been doing…I will work harder than I ever have.
  • I am going to learn.
  • I will progress.
  • I will have no regrets.
  • I will be grateful for everything, and everybody.
  • I will get closer to my Creator.
  • I will live. The best life I know how.

Man…Journal…you have to see what I have up on my wall. I copied it to my phone. And showed it to Ian, my son, during our time together. This, I believe, is deep stuff. I stand in front of this every single day and read it over and over. This is what I want to become.

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I’m talking about the bottom part, in brownish color.
I think that’s deep stuff.

Alright Journal.
Thanks for listening. I’m done babbling.
It’s going to be a good year.

Let’s call it a year of SUCCESS. 2019
Cause, one way or another, I will succeed.
At what? We’ll see.

Mike

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Hey Journal!

Mike! How the heck are ya.

I’m good. Actually, very good. I think it’s a good time to fill you in on what’s been happening. So many changes, Journal. I just got done reading that last post. Man…it’s been like almost 3 months later now. Geeez. Many. Many. Changes.

Well, talk to me Mike.

You got it Journal. I feel like typing all day today. Cause it just might take that long to unload all that I want to. In fact, I hate to say it, but, I realize that I kind of substituted you, this Journal, with something else. See, you know me. I do have to have some kind of outlet to express all of the things I’m thinking, planning, proposing, strategizing…basically writing down everything I want. Cause I’m not all about talking about it. You know, like to people. I’d rather write (or type) it all out, instead of verbally talking it out. I don’t know, it’s just the way I am.

Thanks a lot Mike…substituting me?

Sorry. You’ll understand in a minute.

So, I figured the best way to go about it all, would be to just tell you, in detail, what my daily routine entails.

Fire away! I’m listening.

Thanks. Ok. First of all. I do have to say that this NEW LIFE of mine is the best thing that has ever happened to me. I mean, I’m happy. And nothing on earth makes me happier. That’s in regards to doing something that you truly enjoy. So yep…there is nothing better in life than realizing why you were born, and being able to operate in that capacity. Well, that’s right where I’m at now. You don’t know what fulfillment is, until it happens.

Therefore, let me show you what a traders life looks like. It’s how I have crafted it. I truly believe that everything I do is crucial for progress, in my business. It’s to keep me going…to keep me in the game…to bring me to the next step. I cannot go backwards. See, I’m a man of extremes. And I realize that my only mistakes may come from doing something too much, or too hard. Sometimes that can be very detrimental, but then again, it can mean some great things await me. We’ll see how the future unravels.

That’s nice. I know. Here’s how my weekdays go.
Oh, and by the way, this has been my schedule since Jan. 1st.

  • My alarm goes off at 2:54am. After the bathroom, I must be sitting, ready to run the 3am numbers.
  • I must be done, with my B.P’s post, no later than 3:35am.

Something I’ve always been aware of, about myself, is that I very much so like to keep with a schedule. Also, I do not like to be late. Actually, for anything. Like for instance, this morning, I ran 5 minutes late. It does bother me. But I have to work hard, mentally, to understand that I can’t always be right on time. But, for the most part, I don’t run any later than that.

  • 3:35am - must start my exercising.

Stretching. Elliptical. Stretching. For an hour and ten minutes.
Now, I don’t take this lightly. Anything I do, I don’t do for nothing. What I do, along with taking care of the body, is take care of the mind also. Therefore, all during this working out, I am practicing mindfulness. Which is being in tune with every muscle, cartledge, and the lungs (breathing). I guess you could call it living in the present moment. Look. It’s not easy. I am training my brain to keep with what’s going on now. No thinking…no remembering…no planning…just the stuff the brain wants to wander off and think about. I’m sure every human knows what I’m talking about. Well, whoever pays attention to their brains, anyway.

  • 4:45am - It’s coffee time.

That’s like a reward. Boy, there’s nothing like taking care of the physical, only then to relax. But, that’s what I do. I’ll sit in my office (will show pictures in a little bit), in the dark, till her (Trish) alarm goes off, at 5:15am.

Now. During this half hour, what I do is meditate. I guess you can call it that. In actuality, I try very hard to clear my mind. I practice trying to think of nothing. Trust me, it’s not easy. The mind always wants to wander. I guess it’s an extension of mindfulness. Like…what I’ll do is, when I take a sip of coffee, boy, I take it in. Feel it. Smell it. Hear it. Just…enjoy it like you can’t enjoy anything more.

See, this short amount of time, for me, is pretty special. It’s a way for me to prepare myself for the day. I need my mind to be ready. Unclogged. Fruitful. Primed. Basically, prepared, for whatever the day will bring. I don’t take anything for granted. I mean…I’ll even sit there and be thankful for my breathing, not being hurt, my body and mind fully functional and operational for this day.

Also, before that time is over, I go over, in my head, some goals that I want to accomplish in the day. I’ll eventually write them down (more to that in a minute).

  • 5:15 am - Wake Trish up, with Ben (our dog).

We have some (more) coffee, news. She exercises a bit, also.

  • 6:00 am - Shower.

I’m dressed, like Wall Street, and all ready to go by 6:30am.

  • 6:30 am - Sitting in my office.

What I do for the next half hour or so is writing down all what I plan on doing that day. I make myself an itinerary. So, it’s like a mix between goals for the day, and an action plan. I follow this, cause this is what I should be doing. It’s all part of the planning part. See, up until she leaves, I can’t fully get to working on stuff. When I work, I work. There’s no fun and games with me. I devote my 100% attention, effort, all my resources to whatever I aim to do. And I can’t really start that until it’s quiet around here.

  • 7:20 am - I’m helping her out of the garage and seeing her off.

What I do now is sit in my office, still being dark, and meditate a little bit more. See, it takes her about 20 minutes to get to work. And I need to know that she will make it ok. I know, kind of crazy, but oh well. I won’t be able to relax until she’s ok. I mean, you never know, bad things can happen out there on the road. So…I will meditate until I get her text that she made it.

Now. Before I get into the 8am numbers, I still need more mental preparation. This is when I will read, ponder, think, memorize, all lot of what’s on my wall. I showed you some of that before. Well, I’ve added a lot more.

Do show.

Ok. But, don’t laugh.
Alright. How about I just combine what it all looks like right here in my office.
Let’s take a tour, huh?

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Now…let’s all learn something.
Moving from my right wall, over to the left.

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So class, what did we learn?
JK…

As you can see, I’m not playing around. I take things seriously.
Let’s back it up a little. I’ll explain some of that.

All the stuff on the right and middle, is stuff that I read, think about, ponder, meditate on, whatever it takes to get it into my subconscious mind. I want everything up there to be me. In me. I’m talking…I want my gravestone to have all this engraved on it. Basically, I want to be synonymous with everything here.

Now. About “This is a Trader.”
This will probably never be fully completed. What I do have down there is some of the lessons that I’ve been going through. Kind of like I had a huge realization about it, and therefore I have to write it down so I won’t forget it. Kind of a way to reinforce these points. See, sometimes we think we have learned something, only to later on find out that we haven’t. Cause we like to make the same mistakes over again, right? Well, I don’t want to happen with me. So…I do what I can to learn stuff properly. Like keeping it fresh in my mind, where I can see it, every single day of my life!

That’s nice.
Oh, and one more thing to explain.
See, I have realized, and believe it to be true, that I can become anything that I want. And ever since this realization, all I got to do is think of what I truly want. I write it down, see it every day, and all I got to do is work on it. I think I got this idea from reading a great book. It was called “Aspiration”. Now, that, is a deep book. Kind of hard to read, cause it is written from a psychological perspective. Not your normal easy to read book, trust me.

Anyway. The point is, you can aspire to be anything you want to. No joke. Nothing can stop you from doing, or becoming anything you want. And, so far, that’s the only thing I have up there. I only will put the most important things on there. I could fill up the entire room if I wanted to. But decided to just stick with very, very meaningful points.

BTW…a lot of the stuff on my right and center parts, I have gotten from some very good sources. I’ll just mention who they are.

  • Benjamin Hardy (my favorite).
  • Farnam Street
  • Mark Manson
  • James Clear
  • Zat Rana
  • Wait But Why

All those sources I subscribe to (don’t worry, all for free).

Anyway. Enough nonsense. Where was I?
Oh yeah, work.

Well, like I said. I follow whatever I have written down. And that leads me to tell you, Journal, your substitute. :slight_smile:
Look. I need to write. So, my favorite tool to learn, remember, journal, strategize, ponder, kick around, comes in the form of notebooks! What a novel idea huh?

Well, I make it a science.
I have 2 running notebooks, that I use on a daily basis. One, is strickly for what I write down in the morning prep time. At the top of every page will have the date. And I write down:

  • The itinerary for the day.
  • Any shower thoughts.
  • Any morning inspirations that come to me before the daylight comes.

The second notebook is reserved for the more in depth stuff. I will get into major topics in there. Or, like in the last couple weeks, all of my back testing data that I ran. Or…a book that I’m reading. I like to write down stuff that speaks to me when I read. Oh, also, which is important to me. Every weekend, usually on Sunday, I take time out and do my “Weekend Summary”. This is a must. What I’ll do is start out with a general summary about how I think the last week went. It’s the stuff off the top of my head. Then I’ll go back and read all that I wrote down during the week. That’ll be from both notebooks (cause it’ll be a lot of material I’ve gotten engrossed in). So, I put it in a summary form.

Look. In the one notebook I’ll even tell myself to go back over all my notes. So then, I’ll write up on stuff that I’ve already written about! Understand that?

Anyway. What I do within a day, it mostly has to do with writing stuff down. So, between reading good stuff, writing good stuff, and going over my strategy (constantly), is what my day will consist of.

Lately, I’ve been on this one statement. You’ve probably seen it there on my wall. But check this out.
What is the ONE THING that I can do now, such that by doing it, everything else will be easier or unnecessary?
That came from the book The One Thing. Very powerful in my eyes. If you take that seriously, that’ll get you to be doing the most important thing you should do. Now.

So, throughout the day, you’ll see me take Ben (our dog) out for 3 walks. During those times is when I find inspiration. Man…I’m telling you…if you would only pay attention to what your mind is saying…you would be surprised. Especially, given all the good advise I have put up on my wall, and that’s in my brain, sometimes you just have to listen! Just like everyone knows that when you take a shower, inspiration comes to us. It’s true.

So then, when it comes to between 4 - 5 pm everyday, that’s when I have to pay attention to the market. I see what’s going on. Where things are at. Set up any kind of entry order trades.

Yeah Journal, my strategy has been tweaked. Boy…have I learned a lot about the way I should trade. Many lessons. All in the name of finding out what works and what doesn’t work. Let’s see. I don’t want to get all into it. But I’ll tell you some of the major issues I have learned, regarding my trading.

  • Strategy must be simple.
  • Must have detailed rules.
  • Must follow the rules.
  • Must have an limit entry order, instead of a market order.
  • Your edge should be repeatable and definable.

Look. Journal. I’ve seen this stuff a million and one times all during my tenure so far. But you know what, that was my mistake. I never took it seriously. Every single point up there means so much to me. You wouldn’t believe how much I have written about, pondered, took apart & dissected, through and through, got to the bottom of each one of those. It’s like I never even seen it before.

I’m learning. See, reading means nothing. Seeing stuff, means nothing. Hearing stuff, means nothing. Actually…having it in your head, means nothing! Nothing means anything unless you have come to actually learnt it. In fact, we never even learn stuff until we get to the point of not doing the same mistakes over again. In fact, WORDS mean nothing. I can say that I know something, but that doesn’t necessarily mean I know it. In fact… I can even think that I know something, in my mind. That doesn’t necessarily mean that I do.

Results actually show us what we know and what we don’t know. It’s not what we think we know, it’s how we behave and act and perform that’s the real truth.
Anyway, I can go on and on about that nonsense. It doesn’t really matter. The only thing I am after, is this. Have I really learned something??? Can I learn something?? What is it that I have learned??

The good thing about it all, is this.
It’s all within.
You just have to dig deep. Be honest. Be real. And do whatever it takes.

Ok. So. The end of the day has come. It’s 5pm. I run the numbers. Then, approximately 5:30pm I write up my post about the numbers. And that’s a wrap. I’m with Trish by then. And then by, no later than, 9pm, I better be sleeping. And so ends the day.

I just want to say Journal, that this life I have, is the happiest I’ve ever been. As long as I can keep it going, I’ll be satisfied. OH…I forgot…I have that up on my wall…NEVER BE SATISFIED. And I won’t be. There won’t be an end to my striving, pursuing for excellence, in all that I do. I’m made that way. That’s how I will go out of this world. Becoming better. Period.

Alright Journal, thanks for listening.
Can’t wait to share all the other things I will learn, in the coming months. And years!
Mike out.

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Good morning Journal.

Good morning Mike!

I know it’s been quite some time since the last time we chatted. But, I have to say Journal. Some of my fondest memories, year after year, have been right here. With you. And mostly at the very end of the year, between Christmas and New Years. How can I forget? This is apart of me. It’s like my very own tradition.

The atmosphere looks like this. It’s dark. Quiet in the house. 3 something in the morning (well, right now it’s 4:07am). My labtop is sitting on our dinning room table. The Christmas tree lights are turned on and it just looks so magical. And of course I couldn’t get through this without some awesome coffee. What memories. And every year I’ve been pretty fortunate to have off of work. See, me and Trish have wanted to take our vacation during this time. I don’t know…I can’t think of anything better than having off during this time of the year. The last 2 weeks of the year can really be magical.

Well Journal, this will be the end of my 7th year on the journey. Man…I remember it so well. It was between Christmas and New Years going into 2013. That was the time of my life that I found out what I wanted to do. It was like finding out who you really are. Sure, I was a bit on the old side (45) at the time. But it’s absolutely never too late when you discover who you really are. I mean…really…better late than never.

I’m a trader. And I want my very own successful independent trading business one of these days. But…I’m also many other things.

A dad.
A husband (for a lack of other words).
A provider.
A child of God.

Ok. That’s nice. I know.
Man…I need some more coffee Journal. Hold on.

Ok. I’m back. Mmmm. Mmmm. Mmmm. So good.

Let’s get back on track here. This is always been my time for reflection. Every single year at this time I’m one to look back and see where I came from. Look at where I’m at presently. And where am I going. Actually, I’ve done this with Trish, my mate, every year. And also with my kids. I remember last year was the first year that I wrote everything down in notebooks, for everyone. I do have a specific notebook for each of my 3 kids. One for Trish. And of course one for me. I do take this seriously. So…when it comes to journaling, I’m a real talker. I mean, just take a look at this journal.

I remember starting this out back at the beginning of 2016, (Boy, do I like starting things out at the beginning of a year). And it’s wonderful to be able to go back and see how things have transpired. Actually, you know what? I can do that very thing right now. Let me take a gander at some of the things I’ve been through, in previous years at this time.

What did the end of my first journal year look like (2016)?
Well, this is what I wrote back then at this time of the year.

–The present–
Well, that was interesting, huh?
Man…am I a talker. Actually, I like to think of myself as a typer. Well, it’s probably the same thing. A lot of people out there like to talk about themselves (hence the term talker). But I guess I do the same thing, but instead of talking about it, I type it. Anyway. That’s nice.

Now. Let’s look back at the end of 2017. What did that look like for me?

Wow. Ok.
I’m a talker for sure. Well, so much has changed with me. But there is one thing that I do say that is most correct. It’s a process. And a longer one than I have ever expected.

Let’s move on. We got one more year to go. That would be last year at this time (2018). What did this look like?

Wow.
Well. Did I succeed this year, for the year of 2019?
Nope. Absolutely not.
Did I succeed in anything?
Actually…yes.
I found my creator.
Starting all over with Him.

I’m coming back with a fresh 2019 recap.
BRB
Mike

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Good morning again Journal.

Alright. Enough of reminiscing of reminiscing. What happened this past year of 2019?

In a nutshell. It was one of the most turbulent times I have ever experienced. Not pretty. Let’s see. Some words.
Gut wrenching.
Too many sleepless nights.
Worrying like I’ve never experienced before (and I’m a worrier).
Got to the end of myself.

Well, I mean. I got what I wanted. Right? I had my own business. I was not bound by any other job. I was free. Free from the work force. The last 6 months of 2018 I was being carried, supported, by unemployment compensation. Well, that’s all over with starting in January. And it was my time to give this business all I got. I had 6 months of preparation leading up to the start of the year.

I was happy then (in Jan). I remember. In all of my life, up unto this point, I was a slave to an employer. A slave to the hustle and bustle of going to work every day. Being away from home more than actually being at home. It was my life for 51 years. But, have always dreamt of the day that I could be free from that and be a slave of running my own business. Not having to answer to anyone.

That day has come.

Now what…

Well, to spare the details, I gave it my all. Actually, this all reminds me of when I went live for the first time back when I started this journal. And I did journal about it all. The result? Was a crash and burn. And it didn’t feel good either.

That’s exactly what happened this year. But, the difference is that there’s a whole lot more riding on this than just an account balance. We’re talking…like, where’s our next meal gonna come from? How are we gonna pay our bills? She (Trish) just cannot support us from her job only. It’s impossible.

And I’m the problem.

But looking back. The thing of it was. You absolutely need enough money to start out with. And if you don’t, it’s not gonna work. No matter how good of a trading system you can come up with. That is the bottom line.

And I’m stupid!!!

For not realizing that. Beforehand.

Anyway.

Things really started to unravel by the time summer time came. We’ll call it around June sometime. I was losing my mind. I was coming apart at the seams. We’re talking…this doesn’t feel good. The anguish going through my mind was unbelievable. Each and every day that I was still living.

See. It’s like this. How can I spend so much time working on this dream of mine for so long, and it not work out? In my mind, it’s almost like this failure just can’t be happening. Really. I was almost in denial about it. I guess I just didn’t want it to be true. It hurt really bad.

Well, because of my background (how my mother taught me growing up), I turned to God. See. Ever since I started on this journey, the fact was, I wasn’t using my faith. In Him. I mean, that’s what I really believe anyway. I simply wasn’t looking for guidance from God Himself. I guess you can say I was pretty carnal minded, for a lot of years lately. Well, deep down inside of me, what I know to be true, is that real answers in life come from Him. And that’s what I needed to know during this time.

Why???

Well, I know why now. This is what I believe to be true.

God Himself, was not the Lord of my life. Meaning, He wasn’t the most important thing in my life. Actually, you know what was? It shouldn’t be of any surprise. It was this pursuing of my dream that was most important thing. I can call it…being a trader, having my own business, just everything that I have ever posted about in this journal, was the most important thing in my life. I mean…who wakes up so early, for so many years, for anything else other than what’s most important to you!! I mean…who is dedicated to anything more than how I am to this?

Ok. Enough of that.

What I know now, and came to realize, was that there should be nothing more important than to get to know your creator. I mean, really. If He created me, then He should know…all of these feelings I have for the business…how it all came about, within me, of my love for this game…etc. Basically, what I’m saying is that He knows me. And made me this way.

One of the most meaningful things that came my way during this time is this.
"Unless the Lord builds the house, they labor in vain who build it… It is vain for you to rise up early, to retire late, to eat the bread of painful labors. For He gives to His beloved even in his sleep." Ps. 127

Isn’t that something? You can be making money in the market, even when you are sleeping!

Well, my bottom line here is that I’m seeking His way for my life. And I do believe that this is my destiny. But, it’s not gonna be the way that I think. As long as I put Him first (Lord) of my life, all is gonna turn out the way it should.

That’s nice. I know, Journal.

Well, I had to get back out into the work force. Surely not in the car business. I hate cars, fixing them, actually anything about them with a passion! And how was it that I was a mechanic for the last 21 years? That’s a lot of doing something that you really don’t like. Unbelievable.

Well, He knows me. And has put me where I belong. And am good at. I’m a school bus driver. I started working for this company in July. I had to get my commercial drivers license (that’s driving something pretty big that not everybody can do). It didn’t take a whole lot of time to get since I had a CDL when I was much younger,in the Army over 30 years ago. But I had to go through the whole process again to get this license.

And I love kids. Always have. And now, every single day, when the kids are in school, my run will consist of picking up a lot of high school kids, and then a lot of 1-3 graders. The funny thing about my job is this. This bus company, which is contracted out for a particular school district (very, very big school), has not been able to keep a steady bus driver for my particular route. See. There are very many other routes in which the old bus drivers stay into year after year. So their kids will be familiar with him (her). Well, not my route. They haven’t been able to keep a steady driver. And the reason is because the kids (smaller ones) are very difficult to manage. And I’m talking about difficult! Unruly. Uncontrollable. Non-listening. Crazy. Kids. We’ll just call it a very difficult job, even if it is for a half hour at a time, twice a day (taking them to school, and picking them up after school). Even the parents have wondered why so many different drivers have come and gone.

Well, that was all before I came. I can handle it. They are understanding me more, and I am understanding them more. Oh, believe me, in the beginning, every single day for me, I was wondering how I was going to get through it. They are pretty uncontrollable. It’s hard to drive a big 77 passenger school bus when the kids want to hang out of the window. Jump around from seat to seat. Noisy as anything. And me trying to pay attention to what’s on the road. But, we’re working it out. And now, just before the 2 week break we all have, my most difficult kid said to me, “I’m gonna miss you”. Basically, I know I’ve made some serious progress since Aug, when school started. They are starting to listen to me more. And are more manageable now. But, I mean, trust me, their all not angles yet, but are getting there though.

Alright. That’s all good and nice. But, that’s what I do. It is an income though. Oh, I’m not killing it, for sure. See. This is not your typical job, in which I was used to, where you go to work in the morning and come home at night. And got paid for all that time (which was a plus). Nope. Each day I only have a total of about 5 hours of work. Both for time wise, and to get paid for. There’s nothing for me to do during the time that the kids are in school. Right? I do go home during that time. It is pretty messed up. A broken up, worth of a day. There are, though, 3 days a week in which I stay back and fuel up all of the buses. Someone has to. And it’s something you have to get trained for, because the individual drivers are not allowed to do that. So, it’s a little extra more money that I can get. Little is emphasized there.

In any case, Journal, that’s what I do to bring home some kind of money. In regards to the business. Was it all for nothing? All of those years leading up to my shot at running this full time? And not succeeding at it? Did I throw it all away? Was it nothing but a fantasy? Was I deceiving myself? Was this what I wanted and not what He wanted?

Trust me. I’ve taken to heart every one of those questions. That is what was gut wrenching to me.

This is how HE made me.
I am a trader.
One of these days I will have my own trading business. Just not now.
It’s a long. Very long. Process.
And I was right all along, since my inception into this life. I do believe this will be the last major thing I put my hand to, before I leave this earth. It’s like a puzzle that I just can’t let go of.

I don’t care about the money. You know what? My God has all the money anyway. So why should I be worried about that? He will take care of us. He got me back out there in the work force, didn’t he? We’re still paying the bills. But, we got to move out of this 4 bedroom place, especially when our kids are no longer home! The point is, we know we have to downsize to something much cheaper. And we will.

I do, and have always realized, that my trading is not about the money. The puzzle is this. Can I, on a consistent manner, make a profit out of the market. Enough to have a business from?

Well, Journal, I’ve got to tell you what I’ve been working on these last couple weeks. I have gotten up every single morning around 3-4. I’ve poured many, many hours into this plan. And have come up with my theme for this year.

Here it is.

This year will be a year of simulation.
Since I’m not able to, in real life, start my own business. Why not simulate it? Ok. Let’s call it what it is. I’m gonna pretend.

It all comes down to just numbers anyway. Right?

I have $30,000.
All I need to do is generate $3,000 a month for me to be considered successful. This is all stuff I wrote down last year. And I’m sticking with these numbers. Because, it would have all been true if this came to reality. I would have been able to stay at home, running this business, if I can generate that much every single month. That’s a 10% increase every month. Believe me, that’s a big feat. I know.

Well, I have come up with a strategy. I simply do not want to talk about it now. But, once again, it’s only about the 100th time have I said that to myself, and won’t make myself believe this again. So, this is just another one of those times that I think I have the correct strategy. That’s all.

This year I’m gonna trade. Demo, that is.
I’m gonna keep track of the cash flow, each and every month.
I will have 3 accounts. My trading account. My business account. My checking account (that’s where I will pay myself from the business at the end of each month).
I will keep records of how the money will be proportioned to each account. Just like I plan on doing, and have always had planned, when I operate my business full time, in real life.
Hey…this is all numbers anyway, right? There’s no reason why I can simulate, and prove to myself whether I can run and operate my own trading business. I mean, my demo account is set with $30,000.
Everything is gonna be documented. And it’s all gonna be about proving to myself whether I can do it or not. This is serious business, to myself. Because, I know, one of these days someone can ask me whether I can do this or not. And if I have the actual numbers to prove that I can, then I at least I know I’ve proved it or not. See. That’s the puzzle, to me.

However long it takes.

But, in the meantime. At this time next year, all I want to do is look back at the numbers. And if I can’t do it, hopefully I will be better at it in the following year. But, I will be demanding of myself of having the numbers. I guess it would be like having a monthly cash flow statement of my business. Now…that’s my real goal. I want to have 12 actual cash flow statements. And to move forward every year, to compare them to each other, and see progress that way. No what I mean Journal? See. I did learn much this past year about the cash flow statements. There’s also the Balance Sheet. And the Income Statement. It’s the most important documents that a business should have.

Of course. Mister obvious here.

Well, that’s the plan Journal.

I do believe my trading strategy will get me there. I’m super excited about it. Man…
But, I am not going to put it out there for anyone to see. Cause I need results first.

But, boy, I am ready.

Again.

Mike

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Good afternoon and Happy New Year Journal!

Alright Journal…I’m gonna do some typing. Like, I’m coming back to you here. And the reason? …shrug… I’ve just been thinking so much lately of getting back to this. And ever since that last post to you, I’ve been doing a whole lot of thinking. Let me explain.

During the holidays, I ended up having 13 days off. And, boy, did I get a lot accomplished. As I explained in the last post, I’ve come up with a great strategy. Well, (and frankly, I’ve never experienced this to date) now what???

See. I’m starting my 8th year in this venture. Jan 2013 is when I embarked on this. And, of course, anyone who knows me, knows that this will definitely be the last thing I do. Needless to say, I’m still in the infant stages of this career.

In any case, during all of this time, all I’ve been doing is trying to come up with THE way to trade. You know, the strategy! And Journal, if you don’t know me by now, how I’m a perfectionist, and won’t settle for anything less that the best that I got, that’s the reason why it’s been taking me this long. Well, I believe I’ve come up with it. This was during my 13 day vacation, over the holidays. And it actually hit me around the middle of all that time (between Christmas and New Years). Sure, I did the back testing, and whatever else that convinced me that this is really it.

Well, I got all my ducks in a row. Straightened out how to run my business this year (simulated that is). And actually got to the end of everything that I really wanted to accomplish. I honestly don’t ever remember arriving at a place like this. Sure! It feels pretty dog-gone good! Like…finally!

Ok. That’s nice. I know. Well, all that nonsense was just to tell you why I’m here. Here and now with you Journal. See. I still got up early (3-4) every morning. But…what was I gonna do? And that’s when I was realizing something that was, and still is, important to me.

THIS!!!

Yeah Journal, I went back to this thread, and read a whole lot about myself. Yeah boy, I did type a whole lot of nonsense during the last few years. I actually believe that I am a talker.

Wait a minute.

See. You got to understand. In real life. I can pick out all who’s a talker. And I pretty much always just shake my head afterwards. See. That’s not a quality that I particularly like. In people. See. I believe it’s better to be a listener than a talker. And that’s probably why I absolutely despise politicians. All they are talkers. You know…BS’ers. Anyway. I don’t like people who are that way.

In life, I’m known as someone who is one of the quiet ones. Honestly. Trish will tell ya. She always says…you have to watch out for the quiet ones. You never will know them. But…honestly…anyone who ever known me in the workplace knows that about me. That’s why it probably takes such a long time for anyone to really get to know me.

Anyway. Wonderful. My point?

Well, I don’t think there’s a person still in here in Babypips who has read my Journal from front to back. It’s quite massive. But, what it actually is, is me talking about what was important to me during all of that time. See. During all of '16, '17, and '18, I journaled on the weekends. All of those posts were either on a Saturday morning or Sunday morning. And since Trish doesn’t particularly like to hear me talk about the market, or my business, (because she doesn’t understand anything about it) who can I talk to then???

Well, that’s the reason why I talked to you Journal. At least I knew one person (entity) who would listen. Plus…it’s always been an outlet for me. See. I believe talkers are the same way. I bet you they don’t even care if you are listening or not! They just want to talk to someone and get things off their chest. They will feel better. It’s a release. And the more people the merrier.

But…after rereading and reliving a lot of my past in here, I’ve seen myself go through some big changes. It really is amazing what you can learn about yourself when you relive the sentiments expressed. Because, believe it or not, I do remember a lot of my mindsets that I was in, back then. And how it’s contrary to how I am today (hopefully more mature now).

Anyway. That is nice. What I really want to say is that I miss it!!
I miss talking. Explaining. Expressing. Sharing. Typing.

I’ve been thinking so much about all of this lately. Not only for the reasons I just got done stating. But also because I am not racking my brain anymore about a strategy! I got it! And now what??!!

Well, I’m watching it play out. And I do have to say, up to this point I still think it’s my holy grail. It’s what I’ve been searching for this whole time. And the funny thing about it is that I’ve come so dog-gone close to this in the past. Actually, I was all around it the whole entire time.

Yeah man…I’ve been wanting to talk to someone about this. And, where else would I? But right in here. Babypips. I do realize that I was wanting some results to be revealed, before I talked about it. I did think of whether I should start a new thread on it. But, I’ve (as I’ve just got done stating) been wanting to do some talking…also. Alright. I’ll say it. Journaling! So…there you go. The truth is, I just want to journal again. And this would definitely be a subject I can talk about.

A lot has changed with me. My lifestyle. Routines. What’s important to me. Etc… I mean, life is different than the way it was back when I journaled a lot. But, there are some things that have not changed, with me. I mean, I really do love the fact that I can express myself without having to open my mouth. I’m a typer! Always have been.

So…Journal…I just wanted to come on in here and explain myself a little, before I get moving on this journal once again. I mean, what can I say…I feel the need to do this. And I don’t really care what people might think or say.

Oh, I remember what I wanted to say (man!!! it left my memory, but back now). See. I am a journal person. Know why? Cause for a complete year, when I gave my business the full time try, I was still journaling. I just didn’t do it in here. I filled up over 2 notebooks worth. Man… I did journal a whole lot. You wouldn’t believe it. Actually, I do think I mentioned it in a post sometime at the beginning of 2019. In any case. This IS who I am. I don’t know why I am thinking I need to prove who I am. I know myself!!!

So. Therefore. I do know that what I want to do now is continue journaling, but in here now. I want to continue making memories. Cause it sure was enlightening, and fun rereading all what I wrote before. I mean, times have changed. And, well, I can go on and explain these things to ya, Journal.

Probably one of the biggest things (which just happened) was our dog. It was only this past weekend that we had to put him down. Couldn’t walk anymore. Could barely stand up.

Journal…I thought I knew what sadness felt like.

Nope.
But I do now.

I never shed tears like I have lately.

I’ve really been wanting to talk about it. But, I’m running short on time now. So I can’t. I don’t know…maybe on another post.

But this is what I want to do.
Talk!
(Without having to open my mouth)

Alright Journal. I got to get going.
I got kids to take home from school (it’s the part 2 of my day).

Oh, and by the way.
I do plan on talking to you about my strategy.
That’s gonna be fun.

Alright.
Mike out.

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Great to have you back Mike!

Looking forward to hearing the new plan!!

KC

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Good info is shared here, thanks.

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Good morning Journal!

Let’s see. It’s nice and early now, for a Saturday morning. January 11th. And how is the new year unfolding already so far?

Well, to be honest, the biggest thing that hit us was our dog Ben passing away. See. Me and Trish were down to our last kid being in the house (him). All the other ones have flew the coop. And we knew that we would be confronted with this scenario. I mean, he’s old. 13 years old. Look. We were grateful all last year to have him around. He’s a big dog (60 pounds) at the end. Oh, he did top out over 70 some pounds when he was in his prime. It was just in the last year that he thinned up. But yeah, this last year he was showing signs of deterioration. When we would take him for a walk (man did he love going for walks) his back legs, at times, would give out and he would fall down. But, he would always get back up though.

Then, out of the blue, it happened. It was last Saturday night. We were watching t.v. And he was simply laying on the floor. Well, he wanted to get up. He got up. But immediately fell back down. I’m talking, he made it up on all fours, but couldn’t stay up standing. Man…at that very moment…we knew. Trish immediately fell off her chair and fell on him on the floor. Crying all over him. And I was in disbelief. I simply didn’t want it to be true. We’re not ready for this.

I thought, “sure he’s getting weak, but let’s give him some time to recover and he can try it again”. Well, we let some time pass, and he wants to get up again. I mean, it’s the most natural thing to get up and stretch it out, you know? But the second time he tried, the same thing. He would make it up on all fours but he just couldn’t stay standing. Oh, you can tell he tried with all his might. It’s the back legs that just won’t work. And it’s like he saying "why can’t I stand up anymore ?"

Needless to say, that was one of the worst nights we’ve had. We knew what was the inevitable. We felt so bad for him. I mean, I had to carry him outside to do a number 1. Man…those 3 or 4 times Sunday morning to afternoon was tough. I would set him down in our yard, and all he could do was balance himself standing still. That was the only movement he could do. And if he tried anything else he would tip over and fall down. And to think of what would it take for him to do a number 2? Frankly, that was going to be impossible! He just doesn’t have the strength.

We both just layed with him all morning and afternoon that day. See. He was confined to his bed. And if we needed to move him we would just drag the bed. Like, to have a good look at something. See, he couldn’t reposition himself anymore, because, you have to be able to get up and twirl around in a small circle. Well, he couldn’t do that anymore. Also we had to bring the water to him and feed him. So, we knew it was over.

Well, since it was a Sunday and our vet was closed, what were we going to do? She searched the internet and found the solution. It’s an in-home vet euthanasia service. We were fortunate to find this lady. I mean, she’s been a vet for 17 years, and been doing this particular service for the last 5 years. So, it was between 3:30 - 4 pm that it went down.

I don’t think it was possible to do this better any other way. I mean, look. We really can’t tell if he’s suffering, or in pain, or anything like that. Anyone who has a pet should know that. They can’t talk and tell you! Anyway, he seemed to be fine. But, she (the vet) did tell us that she thinks he had a brain tumor. He was experiencing seizures. But the thing was, he wasn’t experiencing those seizures like he was a few months ago. That aspect actually seemed to be getting better, believe it or not. But, that tumor she said, eventually made his brain disconnect from the back legs.

Anyway. He was in his bed. And we all were on the floor with him. It was time. So, she said for us to give him something he likes. And so, yep, it was potato chips. We were feeding him those, while crying like babies. But he was going to town eating those. I think it’s the salt that he so very much likes. And at that time is when she gave him the tranquilizer shot in the back of his leg. I mean, he didn’t even know it happened. The purpose of that shot was to simply put him to sleep. That’s all. And it took about 3-4 minutes. It was nice and gradual, as we kept saying to him "we love you Ben."

So, he’s sleeping now. We can’t stop crying. And then the vet gives him the second and final shot. The purpose of that one was to stop the heart. You know. But, it actually didn’t matter. He was sleeping. And he was in a good place already.

Man…afterwards…I kept thinking…He’s probably thirsty!!! We should have given him some water!!! You know, the potato chips!!!

I don’t know. The whole thing was very difficult. I mean, we just lost our child. And now, ever since then, boy, life is not the same around here in our house. Honestly, me and Trish have never been together without him. We’ve been together for 10 years now. But, she got him 13 years ago.

Well, I’ll tell you what I learned though all of this. God showed me this. That he (Ben) was a gift from God. And I’m talking literally. He came from Him. And showed us (me) how to love. That unconditional love that only comes from God Himself. Real love is demonstrated from pets, I believe now.

I don’t know. That’s life for ya. The good and the bad. Happy and sad. But, all I know is, God’s in it all. This is my comfort…

"The earth is the Lord’s, and all it contains, the world, and those who dwell in it."

I cannot thank Him enough, for Ben.

Well, this is my memorial to him. Life is not going to be the same. This year has started out on this sad note, for me.

But, we need to move on (for as much as I don’t want to say that!!!).
I’m sorry Ben!!!

“And like I told you…I promise that we will be with you again.”

Mike

P.S. - I’m coming right back. We got a lot of other stuff to cover this weekend.

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Hey Journal.

Alright. Got my 3rd cup now. And we need to talk.
Strategy.
Boy, this is gonna take a long time to explain. And I’ve been wondering how to go about it. So, I think I’ll go about it this way. Since I always document my way, for myself, I’ll just throw up to you what I got, in that fashion. You know, mind maps and such. So, I’m gonna throw up some pics and anyone who is interested can digest them for themselves. But, I do plan on going through the system I’ve developed, step by step. Cause, that’s what I do best…explain things. So, my plan is to spend a lot of time this weekend, today and tomorrow, going through this strategy that I believe: is the way that I should trade, is what I’ve been looking for such a long time, and actually came from Him.

Before I get going on this. I really need to say this. Look. I know there’s gonna be some on-lookers (and I do appreciate everybody!), but, this is who I am. This is all how I think. All of this is coming from my strengths. It’s how I perceive, best, the way the market moves. And to note the obvious, everybody is different. We should all know by now that every trader is unique and will (should) trade in their own way. That’s truly the only way a trader will become successful over a length of time. Building, from the ground up, his/her own system.

And what I want to do in here is to be able to explain it in a way that a child can understand it (well, a new trader anyway). Also, I want to keep track of this system as the year unravels. I’m not ashamed of it. If this doesn’t work out, then it will be revealed why, in here. And believe me, I still will believe that this came from Him, if it doesn’t work out. Know why? Because, I live my life by seeking Him in all things. Including my trading. I believe this is why I haven’t been successful all the way up to this point. My priorities haven’t been right. So, I’ve asked Him to build this system for me. You know, the way He wants me to trade. Now THAT is what I want most out of life.

Well, we can now altogether, watch what happens. I don’t know…right now, I truly believe this is gonna work. But, I want the forward testing results (this entire year) to be documented. As the year unravels. But, now, what I want to do is explain the system, and show last years backtesting results. This is what led me to believe that this will work. And I think you will also. It’s like…proof of concept. It would have worked last year. And this year we will just have to experience it first hand (that’s what forward testing means), right?

Here we go.

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The best way to read my mind maps is from the top right then going around clockwise.

Here’s some more notes.

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Ok. Let’s begin.

I guess the first thing I need to explain is that ever since I came across the thread “The Forex Portfolio method…” by Mastergunner, I knew this is how I should trade. It just goes deep. Man…I’ve, over the years, have always came back to that methodology. Nothing is more meaningful, in my mind, than that. And what made that extra special was the fact that Clint, for a time, was into it. He did understand what Mastergunner was throwing down. He came on there and made some posts to properly put it all into perspective. All this is, is just a methodology. It’s not a strategy. It doesn’t tell you things like when you should get in, out, and all the specifics needed for a plan.

In short, it goes like this. It’s the basket of trades that continually run. See. This is so contrary to what I’ve been asking a million times. In coming up with a plan you always have to ask, “where do you get in at?, where do you get out at? And why?”. Well, I’m sorry to say, there is another way to make a profit.

I’m more of a swing trader. So, how about letting things play out? I mean, think about it. There’s either a trend or a counter trend. I’m not buying the notion of ranging anymore. I rationalize that off by the fact that in a trend, it’s going one way. Simple. Right? And if it’s not going in the way of that trend, well then, it’s going in the way of a counter trend. There’s nothing else! It’s a “yes, or no”, “positive or negative”, “trending or counter trending”, “up or down”. !!!

So, all I’m going to do is follow the trend. That’s it in a nutshell. I will follow the trend from the beginning to the end. And I will have to change when the trend changes.

Ok. I’m getting ahead of myself. I want to explain some other things first before I get into exactly how I constitute what a trend is.

I’m gonna cut this short and put it out there. I will be coming back many times like this, this weekend.

Alright Journal, see ya shortly.
Mike

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Hey Journal.

Alright. See. I was tutored. You know that. That’s another one of the big, very big, contributions that was made on my journey. I learned a lot. And I would have to say the biggest thing I learned was to have an ANCHOR TRADE. Look. Nothing makes more sense. In my mind, that’s what you want most. It’s the generator for your business. It is that thing that you have found that works. It’s what you go to for the most guaranteed, probable, way to trade. Everything is built upon that.

But, and you would think, that it would consist of only one pair to trade. There’s a lot written, and very good advise, on how smart it is for beginners to start out that way. It makes sense. Learn and become an expert on one pair. Again. Nothing makes more sense when you think about that.

That’s what I struggled with for the longest time. Oh, believe me, I tried. It’s all recorded in this journal. My pair was the AUD/JPY. And why? Because it is the tell tale of the risk-on/risk-off scenario. But, I just couldn’t and wouldn’t settle for one pair. To me, all that is, is mostly relying upon the technical way of trading. I believe that is too short sighted. There is another way. For me, anyway.

Well, what I do realize, and implemented, is the fact of specializing in one currency. Man…I absolutely can look back and see how I’ve tried to find a way of trading a complete currency. A fond memory of mine was when the Swiss took off that peg, which I think was in January of '15 (I think that’s when). Anyway. I was trading the whole AUD at that time. Boy, right before my eyes, that currency tanked like it never did. It really was something. And I lost my shirt during that time. Thank God it was on demo. I was distraught though.

So, my go to currency is the JPY. And my mentor knew it also. But, this is the currency I have the most focus on. It’s what I specialize in. Hey, you know what? I’ll call it my Anchor currency. How about that Terry (my mentor)?

This is another reason why I think it’s most prudent for me to trade this way. See. For as long as I have been keeping track of how all the currencies relate to one another, I’m aware of all the different ways they can stack up to one another. You can call it the strength to weakness dynamic. Sometimes the Yen can be very, very weak (meaning risk-on scenario) to all of the other currencies. And it could very well go the other way. They can get very, very strong (which means the risk-off scenario). I honestly don’t think you can get that clearer from any other currency. But, the thing is, there’s a lot of in-between those 2 extremes. Meaning the JPY can be very weak against all of the currencies except one currency. And that would tell me that that particular currency is an outlier. Something is going on with that one economically, or maybe even technically. Who knows the reasons. But, in any case, to know as much about a currency as possible you have to know how it’s stacking up against all of the others, which is called the aggregate.

See. On the one hand, you have the hedging possibilities. And on the other hand, you have the leverage possibilities. I’m talking about the reason why it’s very prudent trading 7 currencies at a time. This is for me only. I think this way. I absolutely need to know the macro picture. Hey, I don’t want to be short sighted. Anyway. Let’s say the Yen is in a very strong trend. It will be up against all of the currencies. You will be getting the most bang for your buck when you’re in with each of the 7 pairs. Right? There will be a lot of pips to be had. On the other hand, hedging wise, all you really need to be is on the right side of teeter totter. You don’t have to be 100% correct with each and every one of them. Know what I mean?

Aggregate. What that means is what the final outcome that the JPY is fairing against all of the others is. And, to me, that will translate into being in one trend or the other. Basically, what I’ll be trading is whatever trend the aggregate JPY is in.

Now, I do know there are a million and one ways to determine a trend. I’ve resorted to a way that I used to, in the past. First off. I believe in moving averages. I’ve spent much time with them. I know people think their lagging indicators. But, I don’t care what people think. I see them as smoothing out price action. Price action is way too unpredictable for me. I’ve grown up enough to realize that you just do not know where price is going to go. To me, it will be easier to tell which way a trend wants to go given what the average has been, per a particular period. Plus, no one can dispute the fact that lines are smoother than candles, or should I say fractals.

Look. I’ve tried price action. And my resulting opinion about that is this. All you’re doing is hoping that price will react in the same way as it did before. Sure, it has in many instances, but nothing is guaranteed. Or even close to that. It’s basically banking on probabilities of what happened in a similar manner in the past. Seriously, how many different possibilities can there be anyway. Of course you’re gonna have things look like they did before. But not always behave in the same manner. If money wants price to go in a certain way, it won’t matter the reason. It’ll just go there.

My bottom line is this. What I want to do is trade in a manner of following the market. I do not know where it’s gonna go. I don’t even know what the probabilities are that it will behave in a certain way. I don’t want to guess (cause I sure know that I was always wrong in the past) anymore. Well, I think it’s best for me to just follow. It’s that simple. I’m gonna follow the trend.

Well, I tested this. And it works out to be profitable. Don’t worry. I will show you how I have come to believe this.
I’m sorry, but this is gonna take some time to get out all that I want to.

I’ll cut this now.
And be back.
Mike

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402

Hey Journal.

Why don’t I show you something simple, about how I’m gonna do this.

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That line right there represents in what market, bull or bear, the JPY is in. If it’s green, that means the Yen is in a bull market. They are strong. BTW…those are daily end results. That was in the beginning of the year. Remember that flash crash the Yen had at the turn of the calendar? They got super strong, but then it corrected immediately. Well, it’s right there to see. I started all that in the first full week of the year.

Ok. Then if the line turns red, then that means the Yen is in a bear market. Meaning, aggregately speaking, all of the other currencies are stronger than the JPY. The Yen is weak (hence, bear market). Well, let me continue this just up to the middle of the year, to get an overview of the changing markets.

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As you can see, some trends it went through lasted shorter or longer than others. And if you’ve been around, you might have heard of the saying, “sell in May, and go away”. What that means is that for the stock market, each year, heading into the summer months, the market wants to be in a risk-off mood (hence, sell). Which translates into the currency market wanting to buy the JPY a lot. Well, it shows it there. Actually, it started in April (18th). And pretty much went to the end of the month of June. Basically, that was a long trend the JPY aggregately went through.

Look. I have the whole entire year mapped out this way. Plus a whole lot of data along with that. I will get around to showing you what my system would have produced if I would have traded this way.

But the idea is this. I will simply be in with the Yen, 7 pairs running, according to which market they are in. That’s my basket of trades. And I do realize that there will be some whip saws. Look. I counted. There are 18 times in the whole year that the trend switched. Well, that of course, translates into some lost pips. But, and I wanted to see what the results were, in the long run, are there more pips to be had? Or is this not profitable?

Look. This is really gonna take a lot of time to get all out. But, let me show you what the ending result was. Well, I need to explain this first.

See. I run end of day numbers.

I got to run.
I’ll continue this later.
Mike

403

I’m sorry to hear about the loss of your dog, Ben. We lost our boy, Euri, a Dachshund at 17.5 years old just over a year ago and man I tell you, it was more difficult than any human loss I’ve ever had to deal with. We got him as a puppy and our lives revolved around him.

But thanks for sharing the experience, it helps you move forward. Good luck in 2020.

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404

Journal.

Ok. I will try to finish this last thought I had.

I run end of day numbers. Therefore, think about it, at the end of the day, I will see whether that day was in a bull market or bear market. Well, if it changed, then that means whatever market I was trading in switched. I can’t go back in time and start the day in the other market, right? Basically, I will be a day late. This will make for an impossibility to follow perfectly.

Well, I will call this the perfect system. And I ran the numbers, just to see, what the result would be.

Then, I ran the numbers called a day late system. That’s, if at the end of the day, the market changed I simply get out of all my 7 pairs, and get back in going the other way. That’s all.

And there will be no other possibility than them two, as long as the trend stays the same I stay the same. To me, that’s a no brainer.

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Well, I also kept track, daily, of the running pip totals with both systems. Why don’t I just show you what the end of the months look like. Well, some anyway.

Here’s the bear market run at the end of Feb, and into Mar.

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All I want to do now is focus on the pip counts. That’s the 2 lines on the bottom there. The top line going across is the daily pip count for that day. Underneath that is the yearly running total pip numbers.

This is the perfect system. Which is impossible! But, it’s my gauge. Anyway. That was a pretty good run. It was a bear market. And it switched to a bull market on Mar 8th. Look. I don’t want to go all into it just yet, but, what the yellow signifies is my 5 ema line. The green is the 9 ema line. And all I do is keep track of the difference between those two lines. Those blocks up there basically represents what a chart would look like with the 5 and 9 ema lines on it. Actually, all of that up there is the sum of all 7 JPY pairs’ 5/9 lines. I used to call it the pip spread. Cause way back in this journal I used this system. But it was in a different manner. Quite different.

Anyway. Back to the pips had. You can see what was the running total amount of pips had on the last day of Feb. 2,478. That’s a lot. Sure. But, you can see how the run up before a change in trend always results in a loss of a lot of pips. The top row is the daily result. And we had roughly 800 pips in the negative before it changed. Right?

But, over the long haul, this system gains more pips than loses.

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That’s what going into July looked like. Remember, the top row is the daily pip results when I’m in the exact market. The bottom row is the cumulative running amount of pips totaled from the start of the year.

Here’s going into Sep.

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Man…I got to run.
We got to go.
I’ll be back.
Sorry for all this being broken up.
Mike

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