Good morning Journal.
Well, the coffee is nice and hot. Very quiet around here. Still dark, but we still do have our Christmas tree up. I just love the lights on it. We have multiple settings with the lights. And different color patterns. I can get it to blink rapidly, or slowly, or just stay softly lit. It’s an awesome tree. And I don’t want to take it down just yet. Nope. But, we did, yesterday, take down our lights outside. That’s because our neighbors have also. It’s kind of like the competition is over. Our street was looking good. See. We live at the end of a circle. And, yeah boy, we lit up the circle alright. If you would drive, in the dark, coming down to the end of our street, we lit it up nice and bright. We had lights strung all around our bushes. In a couple big tall trees in our yard. On our porch we had the icicles (lights) hanging down. On our 2 big columns (that holds up our porch), from top to bottom, we had some nice red lights twirled on down. Man…I think we do a good job every year with that. It’s like…we’re worthy neighbors.
Well Journal…this is probably gonna be the last year here for us. I mean, we have to move. The rent is way too high. And the biggest reason why we stayed here was because of Ben. It’s not easy to find a place to rent that excepts pets. That surely is a deal breaker for many landlords. It was an absolute miracle we found this place, I remember. Plus, this is a 4 bedroom. And all the kids are out. And now it’s just me and Trish. Our yearly lease is up around April. There is no way we can do this for another year. It’s been 6 or 7 years ( I can’t remember exactly ).
Anyway. That’s nice. This year moving forward is gonna be interesting. It just might be the year of change. I mean, a major change took place already, and we just started! Well Journal, as I have stated before, I do plan on journaling my way through it, in here. Look. I’m sorry for all the nonsense. On the one hand, it does seem so stupid. I realize that. It’s like a one way street. All I’m doing is talking away here with really no one there to respond back. Like it’s just weird. I know.
But, on the other hand. It is therapeutic. I mean, I do like getting things off my chest. I always feel better afterwards. And…I do have to say…I feel drawn to be doing this. I kind of think God actually wants me to. Man…I know I’ve went off the deep end. With that. You know…God. But I’m sorry. That’s how it is. See. I don’t think there’s any more important characteristic quality to me than honesty Seriously. In my life. What I truly want, and expect, from myself, is honesty. Also from others. Man, if everyone was as honest as possible, this world would be a much better place. But, what we have (the opposite of that) is a lie. Boy do I hate lying. I despise lying. Well, I’ve been that way for such a long time now. I have not lied to Trish the whole time we’ve been together.
I’m an open book. And the reason is because I have nothing to hide. Trust me, I understand how humans are. Humans lie. But, to be most correct, I would have to say that it’s what we really want to do. Look. It’s the sinful nature. Anyway. For as much as I demand truth to be coming out of me, I guess I expect that to be the case from every other human. But, it’s not the case. Everybody is different. And I’m sure a lot of human beings just rationalize away the importance of being honest to one another. Even to themselves!
Anyway. For as honest as I can be, I’m gonna have to include God. More than anything, I believe He’s the truth. About everything.
Ok. I won’t expound a whole lot on that. I’m just gonna say that we are close and getting closer.
So, how about some more coffee!
Alright. Much better now.
I want to get into my strategy.
It’s the JPY.
See, when I talk about them, my trading, it will revolve around them entirely. I’m not talking about one pair, I’m talking about them aggregately. 7 pairs of Yen.
Ok. So. More precisely, it’s in whatever trend they are in.
All I’m gonna do is follow that trend. And change when it changes.
Ok. I’m gonna show you my most loaded, important, piece of data.
First off, forget about all the writing on the left hand side.
All I’m gonna do is follow the chart, above. If the line is red, that means the JPY is in a bear market. Makes sense, right? If it’s a green line, means the Yen is in a bull market.
So Journal, that’s my strategy in a nutshell. There’s nothing else so important than for me to follow whatever color (trend) it’s in.
Just below that line chart is where those numbers came from. All they are is the daily total aggregate outcome from that day. Let’s move along as the year did. Well, the JPY has been in a bear market since Nov. 26th. So, that’s how the first of the year started (red). At the end of Jan 1st, I tallied up the numbers and the JPY continued in a bear market with a result of 101 pips (of the 5/9 spread). During this time I didn’t start trading yet. I was in between thinking of when to start my first trades. So, right now, we’re at end of day Jan 1st. That’s my result. And then that’s when I place my first trades. BTW…all my decisions and trading will be at end of day only. I remember being nervous. This was my thinking at the time.
Ok. So what market are we in? Bear. Ok. Then that means I place my 7 trades shorting the JPY. That’s: long USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, CHF/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY. 7 trades. I have my already determined position sizes. 30,000 units per each trade. Why? Because my account balance is $30,000. Demo account. Of course, real to me as much as a live account.
So, now what? They are just going to run. It’s that simple. No take profits. No stop losses. Just run. Of course, I’m pretty much always abreast of what’s going on in the market. Check in from time to time (due to no stop losses set). So now, Jan 2nd comes. End of day. First thing I do is run all the numbers (btw…I still keep track of all 9 currencies…CNY added last year). Remember my thread Currency Dynamics? Still doing it. And probably will till I die.
It doesn’t take all that long. Now I have my results. I need to throw up again that pic, cause it really is loaded.
The result was 50 bear market. It dropped down from 101 the previous day’s result. Still in the bear market territory, right? So, the pip count comes out to be -387 pips. Meaning, the JPY has a strong day. Oh, I remember that day. Yeah boy, the pip count got really high that day. I seen it up around 500 pips. Of course the end of day always levels things out. The JPY got super strong. So now what? Well, I have a rule of thumb, that if I see more than 380 pips of a counter trend take place, I switch trends. Man…Journal…I remember that night. I was sitting there pretty scared. I know what I got to do. The JPY is changing trends, man! So, just do what I got to do. Alright. That’s what I did. I jumped out of all 7 pairs, took a loss ( -387 pips remember?), and got right back in going JPY strong this time. Well, I know I was nervous about this because when I woke up the next morning (at the start of the London session), I remember my thoughts. Either I made a good move or not…I will either see some red candles or green…and hoping for some red candles.
Man…I just hate it when my thoughts run to the market first, instead of my God! He knows. Anyway. I checked my phone. And it took only 2 seconds worth of a look. Every pair was printing a long red daily candle! I was relieved. Man…I made the right move. See, the day before surely showed how much strength the JPY was coming with. And it did seem like it was gonna continue. Well, it surely did. From time to time I would check in to see how the daily candle is shaping up on all of my 7 pairs. Still red. Looking good. But that’s it. I’m not gonna be captivated by the market and what it’s doing. I just want to be aware of the market sentiment. Surely the Yen is switching trends. And I’m on the right ship!
So, now were talking about the end of the week. It’s Friday Jan 3rd. There’s no rush for me to run the numbers because the market is closing and ending for the weekend, right? So, I get around to running all the results. And sure enough the trend does change. You can see it there. 46 pips of a bull market now. And also the pip count was impressive, 515 pips for that day (DAILY TOTAL top row).
You can see that I’m keeping track of the perfect system, a day late system, and my trading.
Well, you know we’re gonna have some different numbers for the running totals. See, in the day late system, there’s no way for me to know that the trend will change until it’s all over. Right? So, like, by the book, I wouldn’t know to change till the day ended. And that’s precisely what’s being tracked in that middle part. I would be changing trends right now, at end of day the 3rd. Well, look at the running pip count total. -794. But, I end up with 128 pips of a total (2 days).
And so, Monday comes and goes. No changes. Therefore, I don’t change. Plus no indications for to tell me any different. Actually, there is. See, if you remember, I have a rule of thumb that if I see more than 380 pips of a counter trend, then I should change. Well, what was the result of Monday? A -407 pips of a pip count. Yeah, that’s over that amount. But the thing is, it didn’t even come close to changing the market trend. Sure, it dropped down from 46 bull market to 43 bull market. That’s not much of a change at all. Basically, it was just a retracement of that whopping 515 amount the day before.
Then the next day we got back on the bull market numbers. I’m always just looking at these 2 numbers — the 5/9 pip spread (telling me which market their in, and by how much) (the boxed up yellow/green number) — and the daily running pip count (which can be clues to watch out for) ( comparing the perfect system, the day late system, and my trading). So, the result for Jan 7th was up high, 65 bull market. And the pip count climbed higher.
So, of course, I’m not changing anything.
But then comes change. Jan 8th ends the day pretty counter trend. 31 bull market, which is a pretty steep drop. Also the pip count resulted in -304 pips. Well, look, it retraced. Right? You’ll have that. I’m not worried, at all. Nothing really tells me to change. So I don’t. Sure, 304 is a lot, but not as much as 380. Bottom line is that I don’t move, cause I’m not supposed to.
Then Jan 9th comes. I do check in during the day, and do see that change is coming. But, I’m not gonna do anything till I see the ending results. And their in. We change from a bull market to a bear market 16. Ok. Well. Time to change. And that’s what I did. Lost some pips. But, you’re gonna have that.
That’s all below on my excel sheet. I’ll come up with a standard way of noting it. Anyway. I lost -177 pips on that. And noted that my actual running pip count is simply what I lost last time and this time (-390, and -177).
What can you do? I mean, the market hasn’t been stable lately. The JPY got real strong, but only for a short time. Trust me, it won’t always be like this. And I’m honestly not worried. So, let’s move on. One more time.
End of day 9th. What am I supposed to do? Well, the trend changed. So do I. Now I’m going JPY bear market. That’s all 7 pairs going Yen weak (north on the charts). That was on Thurs evening. Look. I follow. And I believe this is the only way for me to trade. I don’t know what’s gonna happen. Trust me, I’m tired of thinking I know the way it will. I don’t. And I honestly don’t care. I will only follow. And I do believe it will be profitable in the long run.
See. What’s most important to me, right now, is to find out whether this system will work or not. And the absolute only way to know that is to test it out. Follow it. That’s all I’m doing.
Well, Friday turned out to continue on with the JPY bear market. I mean look, the trend goes from 16 bear to 47 bear market. Meaning it’s more into the bear market territory. Not many pips to be had. But oh well. As long as I’m on track, I’m happy.
And this is what’s gonna happen, each and every day, this year, Journal. All that, up there, will just continue moving to the right. Get longer and longer. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out. Rough and rocky right now. But, I’m not worried. Actually, the only thing I’m worried about is whether I’m in the right market or not. But, I absolutely won’t be in the wrong one, for more than a day.
And sure, I’ll continue to keep track on the other currencies. My systems proof of concept. I believe this will be profitable. Actually, very profitable. But, I will not know until it unravels itself. And hey, if not, then I want to learn something, that’s all. He will show me.
I’m super excited about this, Journal.
And. I’m also excited about this Journal. Cause, when I feel like talking, I’m coming in here and talking. Even if it is nonsense.
Thanks for listening Journal.