My journey journal...from demo to live...and beyond

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s the weekend. And this is what I’ve been looking forward to.
It’s early.
Dark.
Quiet.
Getting some work done.

Boy…have I been busy, Journal. I got a new system. Been trading it this month. And let’s see. What can I say about it, so far?

Very interesting.

I don’t know yet. It’s just too early to tell. There’s some aspects that I find troublesome, about it. So, it’s not like I think this is the holy grail. But, I do have to say, it’s probably much better than my last system. The back testing data that I’m coming up with is far…far superior than what I’ve been doing. But, I kind of have a feeling that I might have to tweek it in some way. I’m just not too sure how though, now. It’s just way too early at this point.

In regards to my holy grail. My holy grail trade will be my anchor trade. I’ve talked about this, and what it means to me. But…to be honest about this, I’m not there yet. Meaning, I haven’t found it. In total, that is.

It’s still coming together. It’s like the pieces are arriving, bit by bit. And it’s taking such a long time. What can I say? Slowly but surely, it is. When I think about the whole thing, I guess I should be happy that at least I’m progressing. And I think that is what’s most important.

Progression.

I’m sure there are some new traders out there (whoever reads this stuff of mine) might be thinking that after 7 long years of striving…anguishing…yearning…hoping…praying…for some real headway in this business venture of mine, that I would have made it by now. You know, gotten past the figuring it all out phase. Gone on to teaching young traders. After having established my business on firm footing.

Nope.

What can I say.
It’s the journey that keeps on continuing.

Maybe it’s because I’m such a perfectionist.

Maybe, God’s timing, for these things to get accomplished, is further out than what I’m hoping for.

In any case, I’m not distraught about it all. Actually, I’m perfectly content doing what I do on this journey. As long as it’s with Him. And I’m sure, in due time, He’ll bring me to where ever I’m supposed to arrive to.

And where’s that?

Oh…how about a self sufficient, self sustaining, growing, trading business.

We’ll just have to see how it all plays out.
His will, will be done.

Anyway.

Don’t worry Journal. I’ll spill the beans, more on how I’m trading. This new system of mine. It’s so very interesting!

But first, let’s take a look at what’s going on in the market (I’m sorry I didn’t do this last weekend). I need to come up with the correct story, narrative, about what’s been happening.

Well, where do we begin?
How about how this week, and month, in total.

Top table, is the month running. Bottom table, is individual daily results.
Points to be made.

• CAD most bought currency this month so far +6.49%.
• JPY biggest outlier (most trending currency) -12.90%.
• Way more positive ending currencies than negative ones.
• Tues was a complete counter trending trading day (is that why they call it “turn around Tuesday”?
• Wed was a big divergence day between the AUD, NZD. Came back together afterwards.
• USD, JPY have been running together, as normal.
• EUR, CHF have been running together also. Which is their normal.
• CAD, I’m thinking, have been more of a commodity currency than a USD follower. Oil has been moving higher lately.

Speaking of that, let’s take a look at the broader market. Here’s the S&P, Oil, and Gold.

So yeah, you can see that the last 5 daily candles, of Oil, have been up. That’s probably why the CAD has been bought up a lot. Right?

And so, the US stock market is on it’s way up…again. Well, this past week put a stop to the drop. It sure did look like we were on the way down. Meaning, a bear market might be forming. Actually, it’s been 2 straight weeks (10 trading days) of upward movement. Interesting.

And gold. What can we deduce about that? Well, it’s elevated. Meaning, there’s quite a bit of safe haven buying still happening. Gold usually trades as either being a commodity or a currency. In other words, if it’s bought up as a currency, it’ll go higher as being a safe haven asset. If it’s bought up as a commodity, the metals industry is being moving up.

That’s kind of tough to understand. Gold, as being a commodity, is like seeing risk-on sentiment prevail. But as a safe haven currency, it’ll be like a risk-off sentiment. It’s kind of hard to know exactly why it’s moving. And since it’s bought up in USD’s, it could just be the substitute of replacing the USD with Gold, in a portfolio.

I don’t know. The way I see it, since we are in such a low interest rate environment, the higher Gold goes, the more of a safe haven status it’s in. And so, basically, I think it spells bad news for the broader market the higher Gold goes.

Look. I’m no expert. I’d rather talk about why a currency is moving, than these other things. Don’t get me wrong, this other stuff is important. Very important. I’m just not that adept with these other macro factors.

Let’s move on.
We kind of need to keep in mind how this year has been playing out. So, what’s the latest on our currencies, in the yearly perspective?

I’ve been telling you, about the EUR. They’re still being bought up. Right? I mean, along the way, they’ll have their buying days. Surely, over the course of time, they are more bought than any other currency, in the perspective of this year. By a lot, mind you.

And how about the CAD? Their having a good month, remember? But not so much in the context of this year. Their the most sold currency (-36.27%). Their down there with the JPY (-34.85%).

I don’t know what to say about the commodity currencies. There’s a disconnect between the AUD, and the NZD (+20.80%, -22.89%). I’m sure there’s a reason their like that. I’m not gonna pretend I know why. I don’t know. All I know is that this is not normal. It’s more of a divergence thing than their normal. So be it. The way I see it, this is their trend. I mean, it is, what it is. I won’t make any kind of assumptions that they should be trading together. They are not. It’s that simple. Journal, you should know by now how much this year I’ve mentioned about them being like this. And I’ve accepted it. I will have trades running in which the AUD is moving strong and the NZD is moving weak at the same time. That’s all.

Ok. That’s nice.
What else is going on.

How about a summary.

We’ve just started a new quarter. The 4th quarter. That up there was how the 3rd quarter ended. What can we say then?

• The USD got hammered that quarter (-25.79%). Most sold currency.
• The JPY right down there with them.
• The EUR most bought up currency. And should be noted how much of a divergence there is between them and the CHF, that quarter. Oh, I’m sure there’s good reasons for that (you know who I will blame, right?).
• There’s no evidence of the safe havens being bought up more than the risk-on currencies. It’s still slanted towards risk-on. Towards the end of Sep there was indication of safe haven buying…but it didn’t carry through. Maybe it was all end of month, quarter, squaring up of accounts.

Moving forward. What should we be thinking?

Uh…I don’t know. How about following the plan.
What plan?
Uh…
Ok.
I’ll spill.
I’ll cut this short, and come back with my new system.
Don’t worry…I’m gonna be following something. I’ll show you exactly what. Coming right up.
Mike

MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (1.0 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here we go.
I think I gave you some of this last weekend. But, I’ll go over it again.

How do I trade?

• Complete Currency Trading (basket of 7 trades)
• Follow the momentum, not the stated trend
• Take profit target is 10% increase (possible at any time of day)
• Trades continually run in the market
• End of Day numbers determine direction
• End of Day is when I would perform any change in direction on my trades, if dictated
• Separate trading account for each currency (tracking viability per each currency)

I’ve done a lot of back testing on this system, per each currency. I only have from March up to date completed so far. But, the first 2 months of the year data is gonna be completed kind of shortly.

I guess I should start with what the system is. Here’s a step by step explanation.

I track each currency’s trend. The stated trend. Been doing this all year. No change with this. Let’s take the USD for example.

Last day of the month of Sep, into Oct.
The stated trend is bull, right? Noted on the right, in green. And it’s bull strength. They ended the month being 84 (pips) in a bull trend. That’s nice. Well, at EOD Oct 1st, that changes to 29 bull trend. What happened? Well, the stated trend stayed bull, but the strength decreased. If you add up each of the 7 USD pairs those are the totals. All I’m doing here is finding the aggregate (sum totals). The details are there, along with the total.

Well, what I was doing, was staying in the stated bull market. Cause it stayed green. Bull. But now, the only difference is that I will be following the momentum, instead of the stated trend. That would have changed.

Let’s look at my new tables.

Continuing on with the 30th to the 1st. Since the strength of 84 to 29 goes lower, that means the momentum is decreasing, right? Well, that means, then, that I will be short the USD at End of Day Oct 1st. And the results for Oct 2nd is shown. The USD complete currency results for Oct 2nd ended up being +4 pips. See it there in the white row? Well, down a little lower will be the results for my trading. Since I was short the USD, that means I lost 4 pips that day (noted by the -4). That is added onto the running total, which is beneath it 9,795.
Then continuing on. End of day Oct 2nd comes. What do I see? Strength of 29 bull down to strength of 1 bull is lower right? Still decreasing. So then, I’m gonna stay short. No change to my trading. It’s running USD short still. So, how did I get that 1 bull figure again?

Add 'em up.
Each of the 7 USD pairs. Which, actually, is nothing but the pip spread between the 5 and 9 ema lines, on each of those pairs.
And so, let’s continue on. I’ll put up that table again.

Oct 5th comes. EOD comes. Results are shown. Which is :

• Stated trend changes to bear (red)
• Strength of 38
• Pip results for the USD was -184 pips. It was a down day.

But, due to me being short USD, that gave me +184 pips for my trades results. And that added onto the running total, ending up as 9,979 pips.

See, I don’t care what the stated trend is, anymore. But what I do care about, is in what direction (momentum) it’s traveling in. Basically, whether the strength of the trend is increasing or decreasing. That’s what I’m going by. You can plainly see how the trend was coming down before the stated trend actually changed. But…I do think it’s important to know what the stated trend always is. It’s what market they are presently in. Bull or bear.

Now look what happens. On EOD Oct 6th. Results are :

• Stated trend stays bear (red)
• Strength of that bear trend climbs up to 18 (stronger currency not weaker).
• Daily pip results for the USD was +355 pips
• My trading results were -355 pips (cause I was short)

Now, because of those results, that tells me to change from going short to long the USD (38 to 18). Basically, that’s a deeper bear to a lesser bear. So therefore, I switch my trades from bear to bull on that EOD 6th.

And well, that’s the idea. Each and every day. Whatever the flow is, that’s what direction I should be having my trades in. Changed at every EOD. I just started this Oct 1st. But if I would have been trading this since March 1st, then the results would be that last row. 9,913 pips. Now, what’s 9913 minus 9,729 ? Answer = +184 pips. That’s what I got running so far this month. Not all that much, but at least it’s in the positive. And also you can see that for the EOD on Friday leads me to continue on being short the USD, when it comes time for the open. (22 bear market to 98 bear market = more bearish).

The CAD was the best resulting currency for me this month so far.

• +667 pips
• Not resulting so well from March to the present (-2,475 pips)

Ok then. How about the results of the other currencies?
I’ll go from the worst to the best.
From March to present.

And there it is. Again. The AUD. Performing awesome with this system. That’s 10,059 pips accumulated since March. If you remember, regarding my other system, the AUD performed the best with that one, as well.

I’m gonna keep track of the most important data that I can. And when it comes to this system, I would like to know how viable it is. So. Why not take the aggregate sum total of all these 8 currencies?

I mean, I just want to know, over time, will this system prove profitable. And just how profitable. Will I have to depend on only the good months that might come along? Can I trust this system over a length of time? Questions like this.

Well, here is what the total aggregate comes out to be.

That’s every currency traded this way. All totaled up. For each of those months. You should be able to see that this month, so far, is losing pips (17,696 - 14,970). But the month is not over yet. Anyway.
We can see that in that monster month of March, huge gains. But, I got way more back testing to do. As I said, I’m getting close to getting the rest of this year (Jan, Feb) done. It’s what I’ve been working on lately.

I’m currently trading this way. I’m still back testing this. But, I still am trying to answer the questions of whether I can trust this system, etc.

I can tell you one thing though. This is proving much better than my last system.

Progress.
That’s what I want.

Alright Journal. I’ll keep you updated on how this goes.
In the days to come I’ll get more detailed on how my trades actually perform.

Thanks for listening.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s take a look at what’s been happening in the market.
Here’s a look.

This is a bird’s eye view.
Each column represents totals of that week. So, we have the last 3 complete weeks of results here. And so, what can we say then?

• JPY got tired of being last, and came in first this week. But we’re not looking at a whole lot. Just more buying than any other.
• USD rides along side them (it’s the normal). And we should throw in some CNY also. Those 3 currencies always ride together (either being bought up or being sold around the same amount). But, last weeks results showed something completely different. The CNY bucked the normal.
• AUD. You should be able to see their trend. They’ve been coming down. But this week make that very clear. That -14% pales anything else that happened, comparatively speaking.
• Bottom line…the safe havens have finally made it to the top. They’re the most bought up currencies. But not by all that much though. The real story goes to how much the AUD was being sold off. That was the consensus this past week.

This could be the start of a new trend.
We’ll have to see.

How about some other perspectives.

This month.

Now this should give more scope to what’s going on with the safe havens (JPY, USD). All they’re doing is coming off the bottom of the barrel. There’s plenty of room to come up. Right? I mean, they haven’t even broke above into the positive for the month. So, we’ll just have to watch this.

The CAD has been strong this month. Wavered (retraced) some this week. We’ll have to see if they are coming down…or is just taking a little breather. I don’t know, that little boost on Friday just might mean something.

The CHF. No doubt they are elevated. It’s their safe haven status that’s doing it. Surely it isn’t a higher EUR (which they tend to follow). But, I bet you that their central bank is hard at work trying to keep them from being too bought up. What a battle they have on their hands. I guess it’s always been this way for them though. shrug

The GBP. Well, what can I say about them? It’s just back and forth, and going nowhere. Their just not trending in any one direction (I’m sure this is frustrating for a Pound trend trader).

The NZD. There was a divergence happening between them and the AUD. But this week made it clear who won out. The NZD dropped on down to the AUD. They are being sold off together now. Finally.

How about the bigger picture look. We need to keep all of this into perspective.
The yearly running totals.

• The EUR has been the most bought up currency this year. By a whole lot. 60.25% Compare that to anything else. It’s a lot.
• The USD has been a net seller this year. That is saying a lot considering how much they were bought up during the explosion back in March. And remember all the talk about the EUR to overtake the USD, maybe? Well, from what I’m seeing, looks to be heading that way, huh? It’s just something to keep in mind, that’s all.
• The CAD. Even though they are having a good month, this month, they are being sold off this year. No other currency is being sold more than them. The numbers are right there. They are -34.98% against all of the other currencies. That’s the outcome is you were to add up, every day of this year, every CAD pair.
• What would you think…between the two…would we have more of a safe haven bias or a risk-on bias, for the year? Surely it’s been a mix. But I wouldn’t say we had more of a safe haven bias than a risk-on bias. If anything, risk-on currencies prevailed more than risk-off currencies. We all know what happened this year. We took a huge hit. But then went on a V-shaped recovery. And ever since, we’ve been waiting for the other shoe to drop. And it hasn’t yet. But, I don’t think we’re anywhere near the end of the story. It’s still being written. To be continued.

Those are the mentionables. And the only reason why I bring this up, is because it’s what’s been the prevailing trend. The market knows, and is aware, of this stuff. And so we need to be also.

Alright Journal.
I’m gonna get going.
Been working on some stuff. When I get to the bottom of it, I’ll clue you in on it. Very interesting stuff.

Mike

For anyone who wants to diagnose 'em.
MY 2020 NUMBERS.xlsx (1.1 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see what’s going on in the market.
As always, the best context is in the week.

The top table is the individual daily results, per that day. The bottom table is the running totals as the week played out. So, what do we got?

• The EUR was the most bought currency this week +5.60%. They had 3 most bought days. That’s a lot.
• The GBP had a monster day on Wednesday +8.50%. Then retraced most of that, in the rest of the week.
• The USD was the most sold currency this week -7.10%. Wow. Just compare them to the EUR (white, yellow). Their complete opposites. That’s very interesting to me. That would have made the pair EUR/USD the biggest mover this week, right? But let’s remember, that what I’m doing here is finding out what the complete currencies are up to. That’s the aggregate amount. Their 8 pairs added up. It’s a truer picture of what’s happening to each individual currency.
• The Comms (AUD,NZD) are moving higher than the safe havens (USD,JPY,CHF). Also, the Comms are running more in concert with each other.
• Speaking of that, let’s look at the confluence or divergence aspect. EUR & CHF running in confluence. Both trading higher. The USD & JPY, for the most part running in confluence. Lower this week. The CAD is running more with the USD this week. As opposed to with the other Comms. This is becoming more the normal. That trio was a thing of the past. Maybe it’s because of the new trade deal (USMCA) or something like that, that got passed a little while ago. Anyway. The Pound, well, they march to their own beat. One day up, the next down. I think their impossible to trade. Well, for any kind of trend trading anyway.

That’s nice.

In what other context can we look at?
How about what’s happening in this month.

That’s the running totals as the month is playing out.
I’ll tell ya what I see.

• The AUD seems to be hitting a bottom and bouncing back. Ever since the 20th anyway. And the NZD is moving up also.
• There’s no real strong numbers here. Meaning, the market is probably coiling up & consolidating before a big move.
• The safe havens are not being bought up (USD,JPY). Well, the CHF is. But I’m thinking their following the EUR moreso than anything.

We need to remember what happened last month. That was a month of safe haven buying. Look.

You can see how the month ended with the USD, JPY pretty much being the only ones in the positive (sans the CNY).

The bottom line is, I think the market is waiting for something. Something big to ride. One way or the other. Either some serious risk on or some serious risk off. Surely, our elections is gonna tilt that one way or the other. That’ll be on Nov 3rd. That’s what I think the market is waiting for.

Well, we’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.
I’ll be watching.
Alright Journal, I’m gonna cut this.
I should come back and show you the things I’ve been realizing and changing, regarding my trading.
We’ll see.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s see. Where do I begin?
The reason being, is because I do have much going on. Been extremely busy with my business. I gave you a little heads up on that. But yeah, I definitely feel that I’m progressing. I’m just wondering when I should spill the beans.

Do we see what’s going on in the market?

Or check out my new indicator?

Both are interesting.

Well, since the month just ended, we should see what the field looks like.

This is a snap shot of what happened this past week. The last week of the month. And these are single, all-by-itself daily results. What’s important to note?

• The USD - Most bought currency Monday. Retraced half of that the next day. Back up again the next day, with the JPY. In fact, all safe havens were most bought up on Wednesday.
• None of the currencies are really moving much. These %'s are on the low side, for daily totals. So, basically, there’s not much to mention here. Except how their relating to each other.
• The AUD took the other end of it on Wednesday. They’ve been the most sold off currency lately (although we’re not talking by a whole lot).

Here’s a little clearer picture of what happened this week.

This the running totals for the week. And we can see here that the USD was the most bought up currency, ending with +8.11% against all of the currencies. With the JPY tailing them. This is normal. Them two, for the most part, always run together (I’ve only said this a million times). All this means is, the market prefers it when one is bought the other will likely be bought up also. Same the other way (sold).

This is the same with the EUR and the CHF. And we can see that they’ve been selling this week.

The AUD and the NZD have had some divergence, but in the end is biased to the downside. Basically, the AUD is the frontrunner.

I don’t want to make a big deal about this, but the CNY has been, again, on the demand side of things. Their being bought up (I’ve mentioned this multiple times also). But just know that what’s normal with them, is the same thing that happens with the USD,JPY marriage. When the USD goes one way, the CNY likes to go that way also. Hey…what can I say…I’ve run these numbers for some time now, and it’s what happens.

I’d say this can be compartmentalized as either converging or diverging. What happens in the market as normal would be a converging action. And what happens in the market as abnormal would be a diverging action. We just don’t know for how long these actions take place. But hey, at least we can boil it down to these 2 things though, right?

That’s nice.

What happened this month?

Running daily totals.

• The CAD fell apart this month.
• The AUD was the most sold off currency this month.
• The USD, JPY at mid month, started to lift off.
• The NZD tries to separate from the AUD, but to no avail.
• Again, these numbers are on the low side. I mean, for a month, we should be seeing someone, either strong or weak, in the 20 %'s, for a minimum. Not happening. I’d say, we’re winding up for something big. Beware.

How about another look. I just put this together, since you can’t see all of my data at one time. Here’s how the previous months been.

We have monthly results here. It’s a kind of birds eye view of what’s been happening in the market lately. So, what can we say then?

• The risk-on currencies have been selling off, since the summer.
• The safe haven currencies are getting stronger.

I guess I should throw in the yearly running totals.

• The EUR dropped down some this week, but still holds onto the top spot (+59.20%). I’m sure they’ll end the year as the most bought up currency. Right? No one else is close to their figure.
• The CAD slips more to where they’ve been. Last. The most sold off currency this year. This is interesting to me.

Yeah. I thought so. Check this out.

This was last years ending totals. And yep. The CAD was very strong last year. Was #1 for a lot of the year. Slipped towards the end. But, you have to see this as comparatively speaking. 17.04% is not all that much, but it’s way more than everyone else though (except the GBP). I have the data. Last year was the year for both the Pound and the CAD. They traded top spots all year long. Anyway.

This year is the opposite. And should explain why the CAD is dragging bottom. It just happens that way. When things are good, their good. When their not, their not. Well, I guess it depends on what you consider good. Maybe they want it lower this year. Would be good for their competitiveness, in the world market. In any case, what we’re seeing is their trending numbers. That’s what we really care about anyway. Trend. Right?

That’s nice.

Well, what else.
I don’t know, that should be a good enough summarization of what’s happening between each other. The numbers are all there. I’ll throw up the link to my excel sheet, for anyone interested in doing some currency diagnosis.

Alright Journal. I’m gonna cut this.
And sure. I will come back and do some explaining.
I’ll finally get to telling you what I’m following. How I’m trading. And why I think this is the best thing I’ve come up with so far.

On it.
Mike

THE NUMBERS 2020.xlsx (1.4 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Journal.
Here we go.

How do I trade?
Well, a lot of the same, as I have this year, but with a different indicator.

I’ll just get right into it.

• I’m following the 9 ema line.
• On the daily time frame.
• Momentum.
• Aggregate.

This is the AUD.
I trade their complete currency (7 AUD pairs).
So, the question is, in which direction will I trade this basket of trades?

I will look at the 9 ema line on each of their pairs.
And more specifically, I’m looking at the change in the 9 ema price line.
And then, it’s aggregate.
Follow me. This is how I determine it all. I will go through all of these for the most recent data.

AUD/USD — 9 ema line = .7090 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .7078 (Fri)
EUR/AUD — 9 ema line = 1.6598 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.6593 (Fri)
GBP/AUD — 9 ema line = 1.8333 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.8351 (Fri)
AUD/CHF — 9 ema line = .6455 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .6453 (Fri)
AUD/JPY — 9 ema line = 74.28 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 74.13 (Fri)
AUD/NZD — 9 ema line = 1.0659 (Thurs), 9 ema line = 1.0653 (Fri)
AUD/CAD — 9 ema line = .9378 (Thurs), 9 ema line = .9375 (Fri)

The reason why I have all that nonsense up there is to show you that I take the difference between them both. It’s shown on this table.

Red = bearish. Green = bullish.
All this is, is the change in what that price line is doing. For the AUD/USD, we can see that the difference between yesterdays 9 ema line and the latest 9 ema line is a negative 12 pips (noted in red).

Then all of the 7 pairs are totaled up and resulted. That figure is on the right. It’s a net negative 51 pips. That’s nice, but we need more. That is what today is. We need to know what yesterday was.

Now we’re getting somewhere.
See. What happened yesterday, and what happened today (EOD), tells me what I’m gonna do (for tomorrow).
Let me reiterate.
What changes that happen to each pairs 9 ema line, totaled up, give me my direction to go in.
Bottom line:

• -79
• -51

The change between them is a positive. Going up. Not down. That’s coming out of being lower and going higher. Right? You can even see this on each of the pairs. Their all coming out from negative and going positive. The EUR pair ended up in the positive (the only one).

This tells me I’m going long AUD complete currency. At this end of day.
If I was short the AUD, then I’d be changing them to long. If I’m already long, then no changes to my trades.

Here’s a compilation of what this month looked like with the AUD.

Row 1 = date
Row 2 = who
Row 3 = aggregate daily total, 9 ema change (my indicator)
Row 4 = complete currency daily pip result (literal, exact)
Row 5 = which direction my trades will be going in for that EOD, (green = long, red = short)
Row 6 = the daily pip result for my trades
Row 7 = the monthly running total of pips acquired

So.
What am I doing?
I’m trading a complete currency.
Staying in the market with the indicated direction. Changed at an EOD, if it switches.
Taking profit at every 10% increase of my account.

I’m following the aggregate change in 9 ema price line.
Forget stated trend.
I’m following what the trend of that change is.
It’s more of a momentum following than anything else.
And I have results. Been doing a whole lot of back testing. And I have some very interesting results. Trust me, each currency traded this way produces different results. I’ll give you what I got so far.
These are the bottom line results since June of this year.
Don’t forget. This is complete currency trades. That’s 7 pairs in a basket.

The CAD produced -6,895 pips.

The CHF produced -2,098 pips.

The GBP produced -1,192 pips.

The EUR produced +117 pips.

The JPY produced +224 pips.

The NZD produced +707 pips.

The USD produced +1,713 pips.

The AUD produced +5,825 pips.

Once again, the AUD fares better than any other currency. By far.

I’m working on the rest of this year. Back testing results.
It won’t take me too long to get them done. When I do, will tell.

Well, I got to run.
But that’s the gist of it.
More to come on this later.
Thanks for listening Journal.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Hey Journal.

Well, I just scraped all that nonsense. It was a post about my trading.
That’s nice. I’ll get to that at another time. Btw…I do have good stuff happening on how I trade. I’m very happy about it all.

But I want to get to doing some market analysis. The reason why…is because the market did some interesting things this week. And I would like to expound on what’s been happening, which direction things have been going, and what I think is coming up next.

This was from last week.

@MikeWolski

We have monthly results here. It’s a kind of birds eye view of what’s been happening in the market lately. So, what can we say then?

• The risk-on currencies have been selling off, since the summer.
• The safe haven currencies are getting stronger.

That’s some kind of context we have going into this new month. So now, what has happened in this first week of the month?

Top table is the daily cumulative running totals.
Bottom table is each day’s individual results.
And what do we have?

• The Comms are the most bought currencies for the month so far - More risk-on than risk-off
• The AUD most bought +14.38%
• The USD most sold -15.66%
• Convergence between the AUD and the NZD
• Convergence between the USD and the JPY
• Convergence between the EUR and the CHF
• CAD is still switching between the Comms and the USD. Quite unpredictable
• GBP just floating. They do what they do best…up one day, then down the next (impossible to trade).
• EUR quite bullish on Friday (most bid currency)

Well, it’s cut and dry. The market was bullish this entire week, except for a take profit day on Friday.

I can’t believe the market is bullish Biden. That doesn’t make sense to me, whatsoever. And here I thought the market was on the smart side. Sorry…but I disagree with that. And that definitely tells me something. The market must be biased. Left.

Anyway.
I got to run Journal.
Sorry can’t go anymore. But we have to fly.
Well, I’ll try to come back later this weekend. I would like to throw out there how I’m trading. Cause I’m super excited about it.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Let’s do this.
This is how I trade.

Well, it’s all right there.
Basically, I went back to my original indicator. I was using this pretty much the entire year. Just recently I thought it could have been something else. Like the 9 ema price all by itself. But after doing much back testing, I found out that this doesn’t compare to my 5ema/9ema lines.

Let me talk about what I follow.

See. I was wanting to find an indicator that is smooth. Surely, price action is not smooth. Not even on the daily time frame. But what I mean about smooth, is more like average price, over time.

Well then, that always leads me to the moving averages, for an indicator. People always say that it’s a lagging indicator. Well, that’s precisely what I want! Why do you think present price action is so hard to tell where it wants to go next? That’s nothing but back and forth nonsense.

All you have to do is look at a moving average on the chart. Now that’s smooth. It’s not back and forth. It is more predictable than current price. And it makes sense when my time frame for keeping trades open for a length of time, is longer.

So. What do I have so far?
What do I follow?

• Average price

What’s next?
Well, you have to admit, following some kind of trend is always best. Everyone knows this. In fact, it’s all in the definition of what a trend is.
“To tend to take a particular drection; extend in some direction indicated.”
That is something, to some extent, predictable. It’s all common sense.

That’s nice.

What trend am I gonna follow?

Well, in my mind, I believe things can be boiled down to either being in a bull trend or in a bear trend. So. I’ll start there.

How do I determine if something is in a bull or bear trend?
Answer: the difference between the 5 ema price and the 9 ema price.

See. According to my indicator choices.
Current Price will be the most recent price available.
5 ema Price will be the next most recent price.
9 ema Price will be the next most recent price.
The difference between those 2 will be the most farther out price.

What I want is something smooth, but recent.

Ok. Now. What do we have?
What do I follow?

• Average price
• The difference between the 5 & 9 ema prices

Couple with all of that, an aggregate total should smooth it all out. In my mind, this will be more of a true direction a currency will travel. Individual currency pairs mean nothing to me. Absolutely nothing. I need aggregate. And that’s what I base everything off of. You can probably say that the word aggregate is mostly related to average.

What do I follow?

• Average price
• The difference between the 5 & 9 ema prices
• An aggregate complete currency (7 pairs boiled down to one)

The next, and final, most very important aspect of what I follow is called momentum. This could be considered what the trend is. Technically, it’s the trend of the stated trend. My time frame momentum is:

• Yesterdays result
• Todays result
• For tomorrows result

This is the final package of what I follow, right there. Whatever the magic number comes out to be for yesterday, compared to what it is today, tells me in which direction I will go in, for tomorrow. And since momentum basically means continuing in the same manner, then I’ll be either staying in the same direction or changing the other way.

And what I’ve been wanting, is this to be smooth. I don’t want to be jumping in and out of directions. Know what I mean? Can you imagine me trying to determine this by what the current price action is? Even on the daily time frame. That’ll be nothing but back and forth. Which is nonsense to me.

In another words, I want something to tell me “Stay in your trades, in this particular trend, until it changes.”

I’m not trading a stated trend. I’m trading the momentum of whatever trend it’s in. Cause a trend consists of both with and against the broader direction. It’ll be the subset of what’s going on in a trend. That’s what I’m after. Simply that.

Look. I know this is all nonsense.
But I just like explaining what’s really going on underneath the way I trade. It all makes sense to me.

The results are very impressive to me. And every currency, complete currency that is, produces different results. And once again, the AUD takes the cake. But, I’ve found that the USD, and the JPY produces some very good results also.
The AUD. Complete currency results.

• 14,800 pips since the beginning of the year

The USD results.

• 11,016 pips since the beginning of the year

The JPY results.

• 3,286 pips since the beginning of the year

And you can see what I’m gonna do at the open. Look up there at the AUD. I’m gonna exit my long trades and re-enter going short. Why? Because my indicator is telling me that it’s starting to head downward now. 225 - 212 = lower

No changing with the USD. Their in a bear market, continuing to head lower. So I’ll keep my short USD trades running.
No changing with the JPY. Their in a bull market, continuing to head lower. So I’ll keep my short JPY trades running.

This past week was exceptional for these trades.
Let me show you when I took profit on some of them.

The AUD.

That was taken on Tuesday. This is when I took profit. You can even see there the Unrealized P&L (%) was 10.91%. Therefore that means I take profit. And so I did. Then, according to my rules, recalculated my position sizing and immediately re-entered (with 22k sizes instead of 20k sizes).

Well then, it was only two days later that I took profit again!
Look.

You can see I had 22k sizes on them all. And the pip count is on the right side. But this time the P&L turned out to be 12.87%. Nice. Well, that tells me to exit and take profit. Do the same thing again. Recalculate the position sizing and re-enter with the new size. That will be with 24k sizes.

And that’s where we stand at the present moment.
I guess I can show you what it looks like right now.

I took a pretty good hit on Friday. Down day for the AUD.
And well, down enough to turn my indicator south. That’s what I’ll do at the open. Close all of these and re-enter going short. Probably with 22k sizes on each.

I think 18.15% is pretty good for one week.

Look. This doesn’t always happen. But when the trend…trends…then it’ll bode good for me. That’s all.

I had a good week with the USD also.
Took profit twice also!
This is what it looks like right now.

+26.82% is a good week!
And well, I have no changes happening with the USD at the open. So, these trades will just continue to run.

I trade the JPY as well. These 3 only.
What’s that look like?

+5.23% this week.
Only took profit one time. Cause I start out with 20k sizes. It then went to 22k sizes, as you see there. And that’s where I’m at.
And no changes gonna happen at the open, cause my indicator tells me no different change in the momentum (all explained above).

Alright Journal.
I’m done talking.
Sorry about all that nonsense up above. It might be a lot. But it was fun explaining my reasoning behind all what I do.
Thanks for listening.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.
This is my most favorite time of the week.
Now (Sat. morning…very early).
Been getting a lot of work done already. Up since 2:15am. Finished running the numbers, for the week. And been doing a lot of back testing on my system. Absolutely awesome stuff.

In any case, I’m at a good point in the action where I can take a break and come on in here and find out what’s going on in the market (with you). So, let’s do just that.

What’s going on in the market?

Well, first off, we have to remember where we last left off at, right?
This was last weekends summary.

@MikeWolski

And what do we have?

• The Comms are the most bought currencies for the month so far - More risk-on than risk-off
• The AUD most bought +14.38%
• The USD most sold -15.66%
• Convergence between the AUD and the NZD
• Convergence between the USD and the JPY
• Convergence between the EUR and the CHF
• CAD is still switching between the Comms and the USD. Quite unpredictable
• GBP just floating. They do what they do best…up one day, then down the next (impossible to trade).
• EUR quite bullish on Friday (most bid currency)

So, let’s see how this week unraveled.

Top table is daily standalone results. Bottom table is the week running.
So, let’s simplify the week.

• NZD most bought currency +11.15% (totaled against every one)
• CHF most sold currency -12.12%
• JPY second most sold currency -10.38%

Those are the outliers. But we did have some interesting days.

• Monday was a huge volatile day. Risk-on verses risk-off. The JPY and the CHF took the hit. But the USD didn’t. They ended up in the positive (3.30%). The CAD rode along with the other Comm boys (or possibly with the USD…they are so hard to tell nowadays).

• Wednesday was the big day for the NZD. That’s because of their central bank meeting, and no change in their interest rate (Official Cash Rate = 0.25%). It is interesting how the AUD just downgraded theirs (0.10%) and the NZD didn’t. In any case, they both are at their lowest level…ever. We are in some different times boy.

Well, while we’re here. Let’s look at them all. We’re not gonna know what’s good or bad if we don’t compare them, right?

Hmmmm. Should I?
Ok.

I don’t exactly know what to say about that.
I’m not an expert on them, but, someone’s making some money over there. shrug

Anyway. Closer to home. Let’s see how the month is coming along.

This is almost the same thing I said last weekend at this time.

• Comms still most bought up currencies
• Safe havens still most sold off currencies

Other than that, not a whole lot happening, moving.

Look. This is stuff we need to keep in mind. It’s what’s going on in the market. The trend is still in tact. We honestly can’t say that the trend is changing. Sure, it all depends on the time frame you’re talking about, but I’m talking about the broader, most accurate, time frame you can get. The DAILY perspective. And looking at the week in total, is the best you can do.

I have to say, though. I’m liking my trend indicator…more and more.
I’ve had a good week this week. Out of the 3 currencies I trade (USD,JPY,AUD), the JPY was the most profitable. Let me show you.

This is the latest on my JPY account.

• 25.43% for the month so far

If you remember, Journal, last week, the JPY didn’t fare so well compared to the other 2. But this week it was the opposite. I lost a little with the AUD, and the USD. But made up for it with this guy.

I want to show you an example of why I really, really like my system. It does give me some good clues. This was the JPY. This week.

I want to point out what happened on Monday (Nov 9th). To reiterate.

• What happens yesterday, compared to today, tells me what I’m gonna do tomorrow.

Therefore, what happened on Nov 5th (produced a ‘BULL 33’), compared to Nov 6th (‘BULL 26’), tells me what I’m gonna do at the open of this week (Nov 9th). Since that momentum is decreasing I’m gonna go short the JPY. And, of course, that’s what I did. What was the result of that day? It’s right there, a whopping -1259 pips. And since I was short the Yen, that’s all positive pips for my trades (bottom row is my actual trading results, in pips).

And so, while we’re here, let’s follow the progression. What am I gonna do for the 10th? Stay short (‘BULL 26’, to ‘BEAR 148’). That is indicated by the color on the bottom. Then, the same thing goes for the 11th. We got ‘BEAR 148’ to ‘BEAR 234’ means the momentum is still short. Then for the 12th, same thing, no change, I’m still short the JPY. But look at what the results were for that day…+400 pips. That means I lose -400 pips. That was a counter trended day for me. Ok. Fine. I lose. But, what do I do going forward now. We got a ‘BEAR 264’, to a ‘BEAR 209’ is moving higher. That makes me change trends. I’m gonna go JPY long now. Right? I’m trading the momentum. Therefore, for the 13th (EOD 12th), I switch directions which is noted by the color at the bottom. What was the result of that day? +185 pips. Positive for me, cause I’m long the Yen now. And, you can see where I stand at the present time. No changes, cause the momentum is staying long (‘BEAR 209’ to a ‘BEAR 150’ is getting more positive).

Sorry for all that nonsense Journal. I mainly wanted to point out about what happened on Monday. That was totally awesome! My indicator stays true to me. And I find that happens a whole lot. You never know when the big numbers hit. That’s the main reason why I’m constantly in the market. Who in their right mind can guess when that happens (big changes)? Well, I tell ya, I get pretty dog-gone close, cause I’m perpetually running in it.

Alright Journal.
I definitely ran out my time in here. Got to run.

I can’t wait for next year. Been starting to think about what I’m gonna do for the entire year. Why? Cause I believe this strategy is awesome and just might not deviate from it all year long (that’ll be a feat in itself to begin with). We’ll see.

But, you’ll know all.

Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

It’s me again.
Just got done with some back testing results. And I think this is very interesting stuff. I’d like to share it with you.

I’ve thrown out to you how I trade. Some back testing results. But not the complete story.

This is the rest of the story.

When it comes to backtesting how my trades would have done in the past…this is a real trick. It’s not easy. I don’t trade the conventional way. I don’t have that run-of-the-mill entry spot, take profit place, and stop loss. Sure. That’s easy stuff. But, I’m not gonna play that silly game. Trying to determine when to get in, get out, is way too chancy for me. For methodological purposes…absolutely no way.

My trades run. Yes. My complete currency trades run in the market. That’ll be my basket of 7 pairs that are perpetually running along the waves of the market. All I do is follow my determined trend. Sure. There’s a lot going into what determines which direction I will be going in, but it’s quite simple, actually. When that tells me to switch directions, then I do it.

And there it is. That is what is always happening with me. I have trades always running in the market. But, how am I making any money?

Well, the normal way is, you get in, then you get out, and then you have your result. Sure. Then all you do is add that, or subtract that, to you trading account balance. Right? That is the measure of how well your strategy is performing. There are a lot of metrics that can be produced to tell you how well, or how not well your strategy is performing that way. You will end up having stuff like your win/loss %, how much of a win/loss amount, max drawdown, stuff like that.

But, it all comes down to what your account balance looks like. Right? I mean, face it, it’ll be either going up or going down. The only variable between those two things is the amount of time that your trades are in the market. Sometimes you are out of the market, and sometimes you are in the market. When you are out, your account balance doesn’t move. It stays the same. But when is it all measured? Only when you’re out of the market?

Look. I know I’m talking about stuff that is most obvious and not talked about. But there is a point here. And it’s because of how I trade.

Questions.

• When is the right amount of time that your strategy tells you that it’s good enough or not good enough?

• When is the right amount of time that your account balance tells you that you have done good or bad?

• Only when you’re not in the market?

• At the end of a month? Quarter? Or the end of a year?

These questions are what separates me from everyone else.

It’s all in a perspective.
Whatever perspective you make it.
This is what I think.

Over time, is my account balance rising or falling?
Measured in months.
The more months, the better.

That’s vague stuff. But it’s how I measure and determine what is working for me and what is not. That’s all. You can’t box up what happens in the market. There will never be a same month, quarter, year.

So, how about I get to it.
Ok.

The one (and only) thing that I have in common with every one else is what my account balance looks like. Therefore, that’s what I look at.

My Take Profit — That consists of:

• Exiting out of the market, when I attain 10% increase
• Recalculate my position sizing (will be higher)
• Immediately re-enter with the new lot sizes and same direction

My losses/changing directions — That consists of:

• Exiting out of the market, at EOD, when my indicator shows me
• Recalculating my position sizing (will be lower)
• Immediately re-enter with the new lot sizes and opposite direction

That is it. I do not have any stop losses set. No levels predetermined. Nothing. Simply checking in, throughout the day, for any black swan events that could possibly happen. That would be my only worry. You can’t forget, my trades are quite hedged. I feel my risk profile is highly minimized.

Anyway.

Now. How can I go back and backtest my strategy to see if my account balance rises or falls over time?

This is what I did.
I got a couple rules.
I think these are very accurate.

For every +500 pips, I will take profit.
For every -500 pips, I will take a loss.

In actuality, for every 500 pips of profit, that equates to another position sizing higher. And for every 500 pips of loss, that equates to another position sizing lower.

But, for simplicity sake, I can go back in time and measure the amount of times my account will either increase or decrease. I haven’t been able to determine exactly how much that will be. It’s just the theoretical aspect of it (trust me, with a basket of trades running it’s no easy feat to find those exact numbers).

Here’s the AUD. This tells me everything about my running trades. For the month of Jan.

My first trade of the year runs up to the 9th of Jan. I was bearish the AUD at the start of the year. But then at EOD 1/9, I had to switch to JPY long. Why? That’s my indicator telling me to switch directions (colored bottom row). So therefore I exit out of those short Yen trades (with a +675 pip win), and then recalculate my position sizing, then immediately re-enter going north. That means that I took profit on that first trade of mine. Here’s a summary of the 4 individual trades during the month of Jan.

Those numbers in the boxes are simply the ending trade result, in pips.

I had a total of 4 trades (we’ll just call it that).
The first trade I took profit one time.
The second had no take profit or losses. Even.
The third trade had 2 take profits.
The fourth trade had 1 loss.
Total result for that month was:

• 3 take profits
• 1 loss

What does this mean?

• My account balance ended higher (cause I had more take profits than losses)
• My account balance should be ending with 2 lot sizes higher, than what I started with (1 box signifies 1 lot size higher, above break even)

And that’s it. This should give me some kind of idea of what my account balance would be doing. Going up, or going down. Right?

I trade 3 (complete) currencies.
AUD
USD
JPY

Let’s look at some results (I’ll be kind and only show summaries).

In each box, the top # is how many times I’ve taken profit that month. The bottom # is how many times I’ve taken a loss that month.
Totals are on the ends (right side, and bottom).

SUMMARY POINTS

• AUD
  — Takes profit twice the amount of times than taking losses
  — Only 4 losing months, the rest winning months
  — The best performing currency of the 3

• USD
  — Takes profit 3 times the amount of times than taking losses
  — Only 2 losing months
  — With the exception of one month, mostly not as volatile

• JPY
  — Takes profit just about as many times as taking losses
  — 5 losing months
  — The worst performing currency out of the 3
  — Most volatile currency of the 3

• TOTALS
  — The bottom row. Counting the current month running, have 7 positive months and 4 losing months.
  — Taken profit 78 times, and taken 46 losses.

I’ve asked myself, why I should continue with the JPY, with this system. It seems like more bad than good with it, you know?

My answer to that…is to look at the total production of the 3 currencies. Bottom right corner square. That’s their total. I think that’s quite impressive. It’s like each of the 3 has a unique, specific, value adding perspective.

I mean, look at the month of June. The JPY performed 3 times as good as the other 2 currencies. That’s impressive. Also Sep. was a very profitable month for them, along with being the best performer that month.

Journal. What does all this nonsense mean, anyway?
That this should work.

Getting back to what’s important.
While I can’t determine exactly how much my account balance will increase, with the backtesting. What I can do is, at least, see that my account balance should increase over time. Months.

I know what will be the real test. And that’s forward testing. And that’s what I’m gearing up for next year. I want to develop a real good system of tracking everything that is important. Not only the increasing (or decreasing) % of the account balance, but other metrics that are meaningful. Trust me, I think I can come up with some good ones.

But the most important thing, would be for me to keep with this system, and not change anything!

I spent this entire year on this vein. Been wanting to find that anchor trade. I’ve been all around it. I added only a couple of tweeks from what was at the onset.

Well Journal, that should just about bring you up to speed on what I’m up to. I know…it’s a lot. But, then again, not really. It’s what I’ve been doing all along.

Alright Journal.
Thanks for listening.
We’ll definitely be in touch.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s the weekend. And I’m happy. My most favorite time of the entire week…is exactly right now. It’s early. Dark. Quiet. This is, absolutely, the best time to think. No distractions. I call this my quiet time. When I want to get some real work done, this is the time to do it.

That’s nice. I know.

Well, let’s see what’s going in in the market place. What happened this past week?

This is what I said last weekend at this time.

@MikeWolski

This is almost the same thing I said last weekend at this time.

• Comms still most bought up currencies
• Safe havens still most sold off currencies

Let’s see what we can say about the trend.
Continuing, or turning?

Top table is the daily, standalone results. Bottom, is the progression of the week. Daily totals added up. What can we say about it?

• Most bid currency was the NZD (+7.37%). It took 2 of the days (Mon, Wed).
• Most sold currency was the USD (-5.46%)
• Monday was pretty cut and dry. Risk-on. Very evident (top 3, bottom 3).
• Tuesday retraced some of that.
• Wednesday, mixed. NZD goes back to strong, while the JPY stays strong for a second day in a row. As the AUD, and the USD are on the weak side.
• The Comms (AUD,NZD) have a bit of divergence between them. Wed, Thurs were the 2 days that was evident.
• The safe havens (JPY,USD) also have a bit of divergence. Tues, and Wed is when that was evident.
• Bottom line here is that these numbers are really low. Between them all, the NZD is the only thing that has a real consensus behind them.

Well then, what can we say about the trend then?
Maybe this will help answer that.
The month running.

• Definitely more risk-on than risk-off this month

Although, I think the JPY just might be starting to make a move off of bottom. Pay attention to their numbers, the progression of them. They might have hit bottom around the 11th of this month. We’ll have to see what happens.

Well then, let’s do this.
I’ll feature the JPY. Let’s take a closer look at them.

We’re looking at their trend. The progression of that is indicated by the colored numbers (third row down from the top). They started out the month in a bull market (BULL 163). They were quite strong. Then it’s downhill from there. Talk about smooth. Man. You don’t get any smoother than this (of an indicator). But…we’re going straight down, till the 11th. BTW…the fourth row down from the top (white #'s) is their complete currency daily results, in pips. So, in actuality, you can see that on the 9th, that was a HUGE day (-1259 pips). Yeah. I’m calling it a bottom. Been getting some good positive daily pips after that. Remember, positive resulting pips equal a strong JPY. And that means more bullish.

So then, they climb out of that BEAR market and now into a BULL market.

Now, if you want to see stuff about my trading, on the JPY, that starts on the 5th row down. Colored squares. That tells me in which direction I’m going in. If it’s green, I’m going bullish, long, the JPY. If red, I’m bearish, short. And well, you can see that my trades have been bullish the JPY since EOD the 12th. And also, currently, I won’t change anything at the open. Still bullish.

Anyway. My trades’ daily pip results are on that second to last row (or second one up from the bottom). Those are individual daily results. Now, that last row, on the bottom, is the monthly running results on this complete currency. To date, I’m up 1,465 pips. Not bad. Not bad at all.

What’s this look like on my trading account? Well, let’s take a look.

That’s the latest.
I started the month at 10k.
That should put me at about +31.09% for the month so far.
I’m happy.
My system works.

In any case, getting back to the JPY. The whole point here is that, by tracking their trend, we can see that they are (have been) moving up. But, we can’t necessarily see that on those tables above, right? Those tables, up above, are for comparison sake. It’s all relational stuff. It’s how you view what’s going on in the market.

But, when it comes to our trading, you got to know what’s going on with whoever you’re trading, right? And the way I do it, is by diving into each currency. Quite deeply, I would say. If you haven’t figured it out by now, this is what I do.

• Determine the aggregate standing on each currency
• Determine their stated trend.
• Determine the momentum of that trend.

It only makes sense. If you know what’s going on with a currency, you have a chance to profit from it.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s not always like this. The JPY is just having a good month, by the way I track and trade it. Surely this doesn’t happen month after month. When it bounces back and forth, then forget about it. I lose. But when it turns out smoothly, like it has, then it’s wonderful.

That’s trading for ya.

Alright Journal.
I think I’m done talking now.

BTW Journal. I’m gonna be having a lot more time on my hands, soon.

What you talking about?

Well, I just found out that I will be off of work for the entire month of December. Well, it all starts after Tuesday, of this coming week. After that day, the schools are basically shutting down and going 100% virtual. And you know what that means for us school bus drivers… We’re sidelined.

And well, you know what that means for my business…I’m gonna be running on overtime. I’ll be coming in here more often. Cause it’s nice to know you’re there to listen to me. Who else do I have, that listens?

No one.

Alright Journal.
Thanks.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, I just had to come in here and show you this. Been doing a particular study. Only a couple days worth of digging, but this should probably be furthered. I’ll show you what I got so far.

The USD.

Ok. Yeah, that’s nice. But I’ve been thinking.
Here’s the question.

Exactly how bad has the Dollar been doing lately?

Well, we have to start with the question of how to measure it, in the first place. Moreso, what’s the best way of measuring it?

All of the analysts flock to the USD index. Sure. That’s what everybody looks at, and follows. Well, I’m not one to blindly follow the crowd. When I dig a little further and find out all what that index consists of, I’m just not gonna buy it.

Look. There’s 2 different, main stream, indexes that are followed. The first one is the most common one, called the USDX. I’m not gonna explain all this stuff. Here’s a short explanation.

All I know is, there’s way too much weighting in there, for me. The EUR hogs up most of the entire weighting. Bottom line is, I don’t think this is a true depiction of the US Dollar. Can be optimized.

Well then, there’s the USDollar. That comes from the Dow Jones.

Now we’re getting a little closer (I think). We can see that the weighting is more equaled out. That is definitely much better. A quarter % across the board. Plus…in one of my books on my shelf (Anna Coulling - A three dimensional approach…) she prefers this index than the other one. This has always stuck in my mind. I agree with her.

Anyway. I’m not gonna stop here. Know why? Cause I happen to keep track of the currencies. All 8 of them. And I believe my way is the absolute best way to track them (it’s kind of similar to that last method…in principle anyway).

We have the top 8 currencies, that everyone seems to be interested in. They are called the Majors. These are, without a doubt, the most important currencies in the world. These currencies make up the backbone of this industry. Everything hinges on what these do.

• USD
• EUR
• GBP
• CHF
• JPY
• AUD
• NZD
• CAD

Moving on.
There’s nothing that makes more sense than to compare each of these 8 currencies to one another. And then to come up with an aggregate sum total of what each individual currency produces.

It’s like you would ask the question of how the USD did against the EUR. How it did against the GBP. And so on, down the line. Total them all up…and viola…you have a result. And we’re talking about a daily total result. That’s the most preferred time frame to be dealing with.

Well, I’ve been doing this for 2 years now. It’s as far as I can go back. But, that’s every single day’s result. Measured in percent. Resulting in a percentage of an increase or decrease. And totaled in a running %.

Well, what I did was consolidate all my USD data and come up with their one, most true, result.

So. Let’s get back to the question. How bad has the USD been doing?

I’ll give it to you in chunks.
Here’s what this year looks like.

You can’t see the %'s (too small), but they’re there. But, that line in the middle is the 0% line. And this is measured with the USD starting out the year at 0%. I’ll throw out to you the important facts.

• The top = +71.82%
• The bottom = -37.21%. Which is the present.
• Therefore, we can say that it depreciated 109.03% from that top.
• Isn’t it so typical that before a large run up, that we’ll get a good drop beforehand? It’s almost a prerequisite. Very interesting stuff!

Ok. Well, let’s look at what last year looked like. All by itself.

Again. The line in the middle = 0%. And the year started out at 0%.
Notes.

• +10.55% was the top (5% incremental lines).
• Toggled the 0% line the entire year…until the end. Dropped off the map going into years end.
• Therefore, ending the year at it’s low. -22.50%

Now.
There’s a reason why I put these up in this order.
First one, we got this years perspective. Then we got last years perspective. All by themselves.

Now. Let’s put all this together.
Last year and this year (to the present). In the same format, a running % beginning from 2019 and ending at the present time.

This is what I see.

• Been steady for most of last year. Which means the USD is a stable currency.
• The drop, at the end of last year, ended with a complete turn around at the beginning of this year. A definite U-turn.
• Major volatility struck the USD (we all know why). Hitting a high of 49.32% on Mar 19th. (20% incremental lines).
• Ending at the weakest level, presently sitting at -59.71% now.

Remember what this context is. (I’m sorry. But this is as far back as I can go.) This is the running % total since 2 years ago. And you can see at every stop along the way what their running total would be, at that particular point.

Well, I wish I could go back further.
I could use those other 2 methods, but, they are not that reliable. You don’t get a truer view of them. But I guess I can compare this to what they show.

That is this year only. For the DXY (first one above). I think it’s quite different than what I got.

And how about the USDollar (Dow Jones).

Closer.

All I know is.
My method is supreme (comparatively speaking).

I guess I can go back to the previous years and run those numbers. Trust me, that will take a very long time. Doable. But I’m not gonna put myself through that. I kind of think that this is sufficient. Cause you can see when the USD was stable, in the most recent time period. Then to start losing it.

But what else?
I was just now thinking of this.
I can look at my data and find out what the other 7 currencies did, in the same manner as the USD. It would take some time. IDK. Maybe I will.

But, the USD (being the world’s most important currency) should be where I start. Right?

Well, not that I got that out of the way. I guess I could just do the same thing with the other 6. And then compare. I would be able to answer some good questions.

• How does the USD compare with each and every one of the others?
• How much more stable, or not, is the USD compared to the others? In the most recent time period.
• Are there any other trends taking place, with the others? Cause maybe we shouldn’t single out the USD.

Yeah.
I think I’m going to.
I’m curious.

This was the place to begin with. The USD.

Alright Journal.
I’ll come back when I get some more results.
Interesting stuff, I think.
Mike

[cashisking86]

Great read Mike! Fair play for keeping this thread going this long too!

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, the data is in. Very interesting stuff.
So. Let me back it up a little. What exactly am I doing here?
Well, I’m looking at the USD. Now it’s time to compare them to some of the others.

And why again?
Let’s answer some questions.

@MikeWolski

• How does the USD compare with each and every one of the others?
• How much more stable, or not, is the USD compared to the others? In the most recent time period.
• Are there any other trends taking place, with the others? Cause maybe we shouldn’t single out the USD.

I mean, that’s the whole purpose of me looking at the Dollar. I have in mind whether the USD is really cracking. Showing signs of cracking. Or is all that just nonsense and it’s just going through a rough time now.

Well, let’s get some kind of sense here. And I would like to answer some of these questions.

Noted : Since I can take a good look and formulate this data in many different ways, it is difficult to formulate it all in this thread. With the pics. Therefore, you might want to refer to the previous post. That does a decent job of setting this all up (with actual %'s of the USD).

Here we go. Where should we start?
Well, I’ll do what I’m good at. And that has to do with comparing the currencies.

The USD. It’s most comparable to the JPY. They run lock and step with one another. I think the Bank of Japan pegs their currency with the USD. So, let’s take a look at them 2.

This is from Jan '19 to the present. I made the JPY black on this one so we can see it better. The white is the USD. You can see a bit of divergence in the beginning of 2019. The JPY was being depressed. But the USD was not. It was steady. I didn’t want to cloud up the chart with %'s , but 2020 starts in the middle. Follow (with your eyes) straight down from the lettering at the top. Just on the right side fringe. When the USD starts moving up is the very beginning of Jan. (I explained this on the last post). They make a very nice gradual increasing during this time, as opposed to what the JPY did.

Also. between them both, during the great volatility period, the USD became stronger (rose higher % wise). Although the JPY did start the climb higher before the USD did. In fact, you can see there that the USD dove and the JPY rose, completely diverged. But then they strove together afterwards nicely, like they always do. In fact, all the way to the present time. No real divergence. Now. The amounts that they travel together in don’t match up. You can see that the JPY is more weaker, being sold, way more than the USD. Pretty much the entire year (the JPY is lower on the chart).

That’s nice. I know.
Let’s look at another famous pair.
The EUR (yellow)and the CHF (pink).

Well, we can see when they diverged. Boy do I remember last year that CHF was weak. Like the weakest currency across the board. Not so much the EUR. But they came together, % wise, at the end of last year. Then during the volatility period (this year) they traveled very nicely together, like they do. But then there comes that point where they diverged. It’s very distinct. That was on May 18th. It’s so evident that something happened at that time (once again, I’ll blame the SNB). But whatever the reason, at least we can see when they diverged and by how much. Actually, them 2 just might not be done! Just look at the far right. The Swiss took a nose dive recently. Monday Nov 9th starts that monster slide.

Anyway. What else.
The AUD (red) and the NZD (darker red). And we’ll throw in the CAD (brown). They all used to be called the Comms. I don’t know about Canada anymore.

Well, in short, during the volatility period, the AUD was way more volatile than the NZD. Also they’ve been more bought (more in demand) than the NZD. But, look at the most recent time. The NZD is just about catching up to them. Is interesting.

Alright. Let’s get back to the USD.
Want to see something VERY interesting?
Talk about divergence. Check this out.
The USD and the EUR.

All of last year, pretty much steady, both of them, we’ll call them stable currencies. But then comes the volatility period. The EUR takes their drop before their rise before the USD does. Then the USD follows suit. Right? Ok. Then they both get sold off together. But then comes their divergence. This is interesting to me! It was exactly on May 18th of this year that the divergence began. I don’t know what happened, but it’s there in plain sight. All we can say is that there was a consensus of where money wanted to go. A buy for the EUR, and a sell for the USD. And it still continues. Remember all that talk a while back ago about whether the EUR can overtake the USD? Whether it’ll ever be or not, what we can see is that these 2 currencies (the world’s top 2) have diverged.

While we’re here, we need to address another world currency (sort of). And that’s the CNY. Remember them? Well, I keep track of them also. So then, let’s throw them into this mix. What does this look like?
Remember, the CNY behaves just like the JPY, in which they follow (track) the USD.

USD = white. JPY = purple. CNY = green.
I’ll get right to it. Most interesting.
There was a divergence between the USD and the CNY. See it there? Kind of reminds me of what the EUR did against the Dollar. Right?
Let me find that date.
Ok. It was July 31st. So, we’ll call it ever since August 1st is when the Chinese Yuan diverged, big time, away from the USD. Again, I don’t know what fundamental events took place then, but we can see it. The CNY got bought up and the USD got sold off, from that point forward.

This is interesting stuff, to me.
Let me end with combining these 4 top dog currencies. World’s most dominant ones.

Well, things sure did look stable in 2019. All toggled around the 0% area. But then, the world changed.
Don’t look at me…it’s right there.
I think it’s telling.

So therefore, what do we do then?
Sock it away in our memories.
Live our lives.
Trade as you do.
I’ll continue my tracking of these, and we’ll just have to see what happens.
Will the USD continue being sold?
Is this the start of something new?

…to be continued.

Mike

— For anyone daring enough, here’s my excel table. This is under the tab of “Compare”. Down around the 300 area. And over to the RT area.
THE NUMBERS 2020.xlsx (1.9 MB)

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, we got the weekend upon us now.
Got up early (you don’t want to know when).
Finished the numbers.
And boy, do I want to talk about a particular currency. I’m kind of awe struck as the results came in. I think this is interesting.
So. I got all my ducks in a row (all the data that I want to throw out to you), and ready to paint up the picture.

Here we go.
What’s going on in the market?

Well, we just entered into the last month of the year, with NFP Friday just completed. What’s it look like?

There’s a lot of (good) info on that one pic. So, I’ll walk you through it.
First off, we can see what the results of last month was (top left).

• The Comms (AUD,NZD) the most bid currencies for the month. By a lot. NZD = +32.44%, AUD = +20.19%.
• The safe haven currencies (JPY, USD, CHF) most sold off currencies.

Btw…the top tables are the monthly running %'s. Below them are the individual, daily results (line up for that day). And those last 2 columns are the weekly results.

The month of Dec. starts out with the EUR and the CHF most in demand, for that Tues. Meanwhile, the USD and the JPY are most sold off currencies. You can definitely see how the Swiss is not following the safe haven crowd. Instead, they are following the EUR (and I’m sure the SNB is not happy about that).

How about the Comms? Well, I definitely think that last Wed might be the last time the AUD gets that much bid up (topped out). Cause look at what the NZD has been doing lately. They diverged away from them and now going downwards.

So then, what is the weekly ending results (Mon - Fri)?
That would be the bottom right column.
The CAD takes the top spot. +7.21%
Most of this came because of Friday. The CAD comes in at +6.09% that day! This is telling. For whatever the reason, NFP, their own labor data, oil price…IDK. This. Is. Telling.

Boy…I got a feeling about this. We are in the last month of the year, and this CAD is moving. Therefore, we need to get into the proper context (maybe I’m just way off, totally seeing something not correct, or thinking of some crazy nonsense). In any case, let’s dive into the CAD more closely.

Let’s look at the CAD index. Who says the USD is the only one that can have their own currency index? Cause all I’m doing is counting, on a daily basis, how many pips the CAD results in, against each and every other currency. One CAD currency pair means nothing. Two CAD pairs will get you a little more info. But tallying up all 8 currency pairs against each other, now you will end up with a most accurate gauge. You do that with each of the 8 currencies, and then compare them. I believe this is the most accurate, proper, measure you can get. Not having an unequal amount of weighting on some of them either (like the USD has).

I have been calling all this jazz my complete currencies. Cause it’s complete. And it’s measured in pips, cause, well, each pair moves in pips. So I just count them all. It’s the one thing that every pair has in common, the total amount of (CAD) pips moved.

We can end up with a %. Or we can end up with a # of pips. Right? Well, up above there, all that is measured in %'s (each currency’s % against one another). Well, let us look at what the amount of pips turns out to be.

The CAD. YTD. Running (accumulative counting) daily pip results.

So. What’s important to note here?

• The CAD has been running a deficit (in the amount of resulting pips against every currency) for most of the year.
• When the volatility hit, that spelled trouble for the CAD. They could not recoup any meaningful losses that the other 2 Comm currencies eventually did. Negative territory ever since.
• A bottom seems to be carving out, leading up to the present.

Let’s take a closer look. Zooming in.

At this point in time, if you added up every CAD pairs’ amount of pips, counted on each day, from the years start, you would end up with -1,721 pips (at EOD Friday). That’s coming from a low point of -4,195 pips on July 30th.

• Most recently, they’ve come out of a consolidation period.
• Been making higher swing lows.
• Bullish bias ever since the beginning of August.
• This last boost higher (Friday) is massive (comparatively). I see only one other day similar. -2,382 to -1779 on Oct 30th to Nov 2nd (day 217 to 218).
• Conclusion: I think this is the beginning of a massive leg higher. Probably for the rest of the year. And the 0, break even place, is located up at the numbers going across the top (trading day of the year). I think they’ll end up where they started the year at.

That’s nice.
It’s one perspective.
Let’s look at another one.

This is my CAD trend determination. The right side square is the final status. Last weekend at this time the CAD was sitting in a 28 pip deep bear market. The specifics are on the left (not too terribly important). Just look at the progression though. Each and every day they slowly come out of that bear market. Then by Thurs. EOD, they arrive in a stated bull market, 10 pips in. And then, Friday that boost shot them way up there quickly. Now sitting at 102 pips in a bull market.

And if you want to see how they fare against each and every other currency, it’s right there. Against the USD they are the strongest (50 pips bull). Alright. I’ll do the ladder line up. Weakest down to strongest.

• USD (Bull 50)
• GBP (Bull 27)
• JPY (Bull 27)
• AUD (Bull 6)
• NZD (Bull 4)
• CAD resides
• CHF (Bear 3)
• EUR (Bear 9)

Mind you, this is all in the context of the CAD complete currency. That’s all we’re looking at here now. But it does reflect a lot of what the market, as a whole, is looking like. If I wanted to get an accurate picture of what the market is up to, I would need to do this very thing to each of the other currencies also. And well, that’s what the aggregate number signifies. It’s the simple answer to it all.

Ok. Here it is.

It’s the month progression.

• The EUR strongest currency. Now sitting on Bull 170. Big week.
• The CHF getting very strong, alongside them. Bull 122. Huge bid up week.
• The CAD switched trends. Huge jump on Friday. Bull 102.
• The NZD still Bull trend (44), but getting weaker big time. They were quite high to begin with. Takes time to switch completely over.
• The AUD in low Bull market (23). Going nowhere. Diverged some from the NZD (they went higher while the NZD went lower).
• The GBP got weaker and switched into Bear market (52).
• The JPY in deep bear market territory (183).
• The USD in the deepest bear market territory (226). Weakest currency. Been dropping.

Well, if that ain’t a comparison, I don’t know what.
We can look at %'s and pips all day long. But when you look at their respective trends, well then, you’re getting a better sense of their direction. Remember, when we talk about a bull trend or a bear trend, that already implies what’s been happening. And yet, we’re looking at that trend. It’s the trend of the trend, of what I’m looking at, up there.

That’s nice. I know.
Anyway.

My point is?
I’m simply interested in seeing whether the CAD goes up from here, till the end of the year.

Do I trade the CAD?
Nope. I don’t.
It’s just very interesting to me. It’s what happened on Friday that caught my eye. And I did some research on them. And showed it all to you, that’s all.

I trade the AUD. USD. JPY.
I had a very positive month, of Nov, regarding those 3.
Here’s a bit of summary I got with these. This might be hard to understand.

Well, bottom line here is that what I’ve been trying to do lately, is compare my back testing results to what my account balance actually produces. I only started. One month under my belt, worth of this data. But, I think I know now how to keep track of next years trading.

AUD complete currency account
— -861 pips this month
— -8.38% account balance result
— The system produced 13,271 pips since the years start

USD complete currency account
— -537 pips this month
— +6.93% account balance result. (Anomaly).
— The system produced 10,428 pips since the years start

JPY complete currency account
— +1,310 pips this month
— +24.56% account balance result
— The system produced 4,519 pips since the years start

My total account balance for this month was 7.70%.

The total system produced 28,218 pips since the years start.

What I would like to do is have this continue all of next year. That’s each month of what my system produces compared to exactly what my account produces. See. When I take profit, and immediately get back in (perpetually running trades…perpetually running account balance) with an adjusted position sizing, that has big affects on how my account balance fares. Therefore, what I am doing is tracking both forward testing and comparing it to the back testing data, at the same time.

I don’t know. That might be pure nonsense babel. Don’t mind me.

In any case, it is what I want to do next year. The format.

Alright Journal.
I’m done talking.
Thanks for listening.
We’ll definitely be in touch.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

It’s the weekend. I’m happy.
I don’t know why I get so happy, cause my days aren’t filled with so much work, nowadays.
I think the last time I talked about this was when I thought I was done working for the rest of the year. Well, that’s not entirely true. What happened was a scaled down work day for me. See. 90% of our business, school bus driving, belongs to one huge school district. And well, they went 100% virtual through Jan. But we actually have other commitments. And for me, it entails a couple of parochial schools. In the morning time, I have 2 students for a Catholic school, and another 2 students for a Christian school. These 2 private schools are fairly close to one another (2 min’s apart). Therefore, this doesn’t take me long to complete.

But, these schools are still in session. And my job still needs done. It has worked out quite nicely. It’s a chance for me to still get out everyday. Unlike some other drivers. Let’s see, out of about a hundred other school bus drivers, I’d say around 25% of us still have a daily commitment. And still, everyone who does have to work has their own particular runs. Some run in the morning and also in the afternoon. I have just a morning run, that’s it. It’ll be only for one hour long (from the time I leave the lot to the time I get back). So. We’re not talking about a long day for me. I’ll be home around 9am every morning. I do, though, still stick around and fuel up the busses. I’m just continuing what I used to do. Although, with many less busses running, it’s not many. Our vans and smaller vehicles are what mostly is being used. They don’t use propane as fuel (like the bigger busses). So they have to fuel up their own (with regular gas).

Anyway. All that nonsense just tells you that I do still get out for a couple hours everyday. And guess what? We’re still getting paid the same amount, as if things were normal. Boy…was I relieved when I heard that! It’s the school district’s bill, and they will continue to pay our company, through this tough time. Yeah man, that’s awesome. Some drivers fared better than others though. Meaning, some have to actually get out there and put in some work. Some don’t. Cause if their particular run doesn’t entail any other schools, then their done. They’re actually kind of lucky. Cause their gonna still get paid, for doing nothing.

But. For what I’ve been through, this last year, being stuck at home, I’m very happy to be getting out at least once a day. I remember earlier this year, I was starting to lose it, mentally. No joke. Even though I got out there and ran (like an hour a day), it wasn’t enough. (BTW…I chalked up a total of 191 miles during that time that I was stuck at home). I never thought I would see the day, that I would be bored to death. Well, I experienced it, alright. It’s not pleasant. I am not made to do be doing nothing. More of like, in the physical sense. This body has to move. And if it doesn’t, the mind starts to go. And I don’t have the time now to go into all what that looks like. Trust me, it’s not pretty.

So. Anyway.
I am quite happy having to get up and get out everyday. But this won’t last long. I only have a week and 2 days left, for this schedule (22nd last day). Then I’m done for the holidays. I’ll have absolutely no commitments until sometime in Jan. We’ll have to see when they go back to normal. Who knows when that’ll happen. I remember back in Mar when we were let go. We all thought we were going back sometime in Apr. Nope. That didn’t happen. It all got extended…and extended…and extended. We’ll have to see what happens come Jan.

In the meantime, I still work on my business. I mean, that’s an everyday thing for me. I don’t get bored with that, are you kidding me? 5 o’clock everyday comes, and I am very happy to run my numbers. Sure. I get curious and wonder what’s been happening in the market. Who’s on top, who’s on the bottom. But, it’s more than that, I think. I love stats. Numbers. Sizing up one thing to another. It’s just fun. And interesting. Some days are more interesting than others, right?

And when I think about it, it’s not the trading part of it. That’s a separate matter. That’s all about whether you’re winning or losing. Sure. There’s a place for that. But it’s not the only thing I care about. Cause, every (real) trader knows that you’re gonna win some and you’re gonna lose some. What happens in one day is miniscule compared to what happens in the longer time frame of things. Now. When I think about my trading, these are the questions I get excited about. And ponder.

• Do I trust my system?
• What is it that makes my system work?
• Under what market conditions does my system work best in?
• How do I know if my system is working or not, to begin with?
• What are the factors, of my system, that impact it the most?

Actually, Journal, these are the things that I’ve been pondering lately. I got a mind map on these. So now you have an idea of what I’ve been up to lately. It’s stuff like this. And well, honestly, also, I’m doing some back testing. 2019 results. I’m half way through that year now. Boy, am I finding some interesting results. See. The more back testing I do, that enables me to go back and be able to research and answer those questions above.

So. Ok. That’s nice.
Enough of talking.

How about we look at what’s been going on in the market.
Let’s step inside, and take a look. I’ll guide you.

What happened this week?

Well, that’s a loaded picture! There’s so much info in there it ain’t funny.
I’ll clear it up. Most important data, to the least.
The bottom right line up (weekly stat).

• The AUD most bid currency this week (+12.66%)
• The AUD had a super bid up day on Thurs (8.04%). That’s a lot for a currency. And the NZD followed them with 6.10%. And to boot, the CAD next with 2.38% that day. We’ll call it a risk-on kind of day.
• The next most notable thing that happened this week was with the GBP. Oh my goodness. Not good (if going up is good). Thursday EOD, they end up being -10.03%. Man…I remember when I was running the numbers for EOD Wed. The GBP started flying at that time! All I can say is, that money wasn’t waiting for their session. That all started around the time that Asia was just getting going.
• Anyway. The GBP was the most sold off currency for the week -14.90%.
  And I’m sure that’s due to the Brexit news.
• For the month so far, it’s the AUD. Most bid currency (14.54%). And most (all) of that came in the last 3 days.
• The CHF has been being bought up a lot, as the month has been rolling out. They were the most bid currency for Monday and Tuesday. But then, have fallen off since (the SNB finally caught some traction).
• Monday and Friday we’ll call more of a safe haven buying days. JPY and some USD. Them two ended the week pretty low (-.59%, -.82%).

So. How about the CAD? Remember last week how I went on about them? I thought that Friday was a real statement they made. Are they continuing on with being bought up, or was that simply meaningless stuff? Well, for that, we need to look at a different context. I mentioned this last time. We can look at %'s, daily and weekly stats all day long, but not get an accurate reading. What we need to do is to look at their trend.

First off, this is a line up of each currencies trend. It’s my way of seeing inside each of them. And comparing them.
We have 5 of them in a bull market (green). 3 of them in a bear market (red). The numbers inside explain everything. It’s how deep each one is, in their own respective trend.
Getting back to the CAD. What’s it really looking like?
They are in a bull trend. And have climbed more into it. (138 - 151)
Therefore, they are not weakening, they are strengthening.
Now, the CHF is weakening. Sure, still in a bull trend, but decreasing in it. This week went up, but then came down fast.
The EUR has been dropping out pretty good this week. But still in a bull trend though (barely).
What’s the JPY and USD doing?
Well, the Yen is definitely coming more out of their bear trend. And the USD is slowly also.

— God bless the Queen. —

But, how about the AUD and the NZD?
What a jump the AUD did this week, huh? And the NZD, we know from last week that they were on the tumble. Even so much as to go into bear market territory. But, boy, did they bounce up nicely. Up and out of that bear market real quick.

Well, I don’t know how much more of a comparison you can get, than that. Well, I could, but I won’t.

What’s happening?
Well, we’re heading into the end of the year.
I still think the CAD might head up higher (like I said last weekend). Nothing is disproving that notion so far, anyway. So, we’ll keep an eye on that.
If you look up there, at the tables. The weeks results, you can see the safe havens (JPY,USD) are ending the weeks higher. I’m just wondering, and wouldn’t be surprised, to see them ending next week in positive %'s. Friday’s results could be the start of that. But who knows. The market flips over and over all the time. I actually thought Monday would have been the start of a risk-off buying environment. But nope. It never carried through with it. Risk-on came roaring back.

And such has been with this market environment. You think one thing should be taking place, but the market says differently.

All we can do is monitor it. Watch it. And marvel at it.

This is why I expressly think that following the market is much more prudent than speculating it.

I should clarify.
My trading strategy entails following, not speculation.

Alright Journal.
I’m done talking. Thanks for letting me type away.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.
It’s Sunday morning.
It’s early.
Dark.
Peaceful.
Christmas tree twinkling.

And speaking of that…I’ve been thinking, lately. It’s getting pretty close to the time where I do much reflecting. In here, I get to put a year end post up. I can go back, and I will, to see where I’ve come from this year.

I don’t know…I think this is a special time of the year for me. Maybe because of the memories I’ve had in the past…right here. With the Christmas tree all lit up while I’m getting some kind of work done. It seems like I was always on a major project around this time.

Well, I know why. It’s because this was the time of the year that I always took a week off of work. Boy, talk about happiness. Being away from the shop (prison) for that week during the holidays made me so refreshed. And there was no better times that I had, in the mornings, to be working on my business.

Good times. Good memories.
But, I guess the times have been changing for me. Cause I’ve been out of that profession (prison, I tell ya) for 2 years now. And even though it’s been a real struggle, trying to find where else it is that I belong, I’ve never been more happier.

Well, in any case, that’s all good and nice. Whatever I’ve been through, I’ve wrote about it in here. So basically, my point is, that I’m gonna be doing that again, for what’s been happening this year. I mean…the way I see it…you have to see where you came from. Like. What were you thinking…what actually happened…and how far off you were. Truth. That should be what we really want. Right? But sometimes, and probably most of the time, that doesn’t always feel so good. It’s what’s needed though.

Boy do I like having yearly goals. Not only do I do this with this business of mine, but I make it a point to sit down with my kids also. Well, I start with me and Trish. We’ve been doing this for some time now. We always set aside some time to reflect on what has happened this year. I have a notebook for her and me. And it’s good to look back on the year and see what I wrote about us last year at this time. (I started with the notebook only a couple years ago). I’ll write down as much as the conversation as possible. We’ve already mentioned that this years conversation is gonna really be something. No one could have predicted, back in Jan, that a pandemic would up end all of our lives. No one. Talk about change. And yes, that, we will talk about. Should be fun.

I think it’s even more important when I do this with my kids. Cause they are still young. And, well, you know kids, how they think they know something. It’s not always pretty to see it in ink, of what they thought, just one year earlier. Well, dad will always be there for some kind of learning lesson. We always need to be learning something, I believe.

That’s nice.

Well, getting back to my business. Let’s see. What’s been happening lately?

Boy, was I busy yesterday (Sat) morning. This is something that I’ve been preoccupied with lately. See. We’re getting close to the end of the year. And that means that I got to get my excel spreadsheet all set up for next year. That, in itself, is not really a big deal. I just go to my saved templet and make a new excel book out of it.

Well, I did have some modifications to do on it. No big deal. But. What I’ve been wanting to do for some time, has finally come. I’ve been wanting to automate much of how I run my nightly EOD numbers. I mean, we’re talking excel here. What takes a half hour to do, really, shouldn’t take that long to do. I’m thinking, there has to be a way to get it all done, in minutes.

Journal. You’ve seen all the tables I come up with. It’s not that hard! All it is, really, is nothing but adding up numbers. That’s all it boils down to. I just want them grouped in certain time periods. That’s all. Right? I mean, how hard can that be? And. It’s not. It’s just…there’s got to be a better way to do it, that’s all.

And the thing is…no one can help me. Well. I’ve tried. But, I can’t get through to the Microsoft Excel help desk. I spelled out my problem to them, but they haven’t gotten back to me (emailed). And, for some reason, I don’t think they’re going to either.

Well, while you’re hear Journal, why don’t I just run it by you. I’ll throw out to you what I’ve been agonizing over.

I’m running out of time, and hope to have a good system before the new year starts. Actually, I have until the 4th of Jan. Cause that’ll be when my new year starts. And counted from.

This is what I have so far. And it’ll probably work. I’m kind of happy with it. Let me show you what I’ve been doing, and then the latest.

For the last 2 years. This is how I did it.

So. The numbers are not important here. This is to show you how I go about running these numbers. This is Dec.'s table (current).

From the top. Each day is a row. All I do is copy and paste, in chunks (8 different chunks), data into that top table. It takes a total of one minute to do. Very easy stuff. Then I have all of what I need, which is the total % of each of the 9 currencies. Those magic numbers are in the color coded boxes going across. From the top down, USD (white), EUR (yellow), GBP (blue), CHF (pink), AUD (red), NZD (dark red), CAD, (brown), JPY (purple), CNY (green). That’ll be a complete currency % of that currency against all of the other ones for that particular day. And so, beneath that first green line going across, is where I group each days results into their perspective time frame. That first group is the yearly running %'s. (This is so stupid why I chose this to be the first group…should be the last…in which I changed this for next year).

Then under that group (the second) is the DAILY TOTAL, and the WEEKLY TOTAL section. I can see what happened in a day, all by itself, and I can see how the week is rolling out (running %). Then under that section I have the quarterly running %'s. It’s simply just adding up the days every 3 months at a time. Under that, those green boxes, are Gold (top, bottom, and ending prices for that day). Then under that section is the monthly running %'s. Simply how a month is unraveling (running %'s). And in all of that, the columns are all paired up, from the top down to this point.

But then under that section, all I did was consolidate all of that above data into an easier table to see. The YEARLY table is first. There is no break there in that table from the beginning of the year. Then the QUARTERLY table under that. A beak every 3 months there. Then the MONTHLY table. Then under that is the days all by itself (noted by what day it is as the header). You can compare days very easily by looking at that table. And then under that (which is cut off), is the weekly results, for that particular week.

So. After the numbers are initially inputted in (like I said, quickly) how do I transfer them into the specific areas? This takes the time. I’ll copy and past the latest column to the day that I’m on. See how the days are blank in the future? So. When I do that, I’ll have yesterdays results (of course), and then I have to simply add that to what today’s results is, and end up with a new total. It’s already colored coded to the specific currency (that’s an important aspect). And when I’m done, I have to go back and rearrange the order, from the highest down to the lowest.

And voila. Simple as that. All the way down. Well, not that last section, cause all I’m doing there is copying and pasting into those running tables. In any case, that’s a lot of leg work.

There has to be a better way to automate this. This is excel! I have the sum function available to me. Right? Well, when you go through the process, it’s not that simple. Trust me.

I’ll show you.

This is what I got so far. Same stuff happens above. Again. That’s where the inputting of the numbers takes place. I’ll have their EOD % real quick. And in the particular days column, I’ll have the figure automatically entered in there. I can program it that way. No problem. But…in that particular order though.

But. My tables are in more of a correct order. I’m starting out with what the daily results are. All by themselves. Then the second table under that will be how the week is rolling out (running %'s). Simple. I can program each block to simply add up what the previous days results are. The final results will be at the end. That’ll be the running total for the week. Then under that will be what the monthly running total will be. Same thing. It’s easy to have in each of those blocks what yesterdays total is PLUS what the new day’s total is, and result it.

Sure. All seems easy as pie. Right? So far so good. And I even have it extended to the quarterly, and yearly running totals later on in the year. Those are tables that are added. No problem buddy.

But…

The problem lies with rearranging them in the strongest to weakest order.

I cannot find a way to do that. Automatically.

I’m close though.
This is how I would do it. This is a practice session.
I grabbed a previous days data. Threw it up there at the top table (hidden). And this is what it produced on these tables. Under DAY 4.

You can see that the figures are all not in any order. It’s the raw results for each currency, inputted in this default order I have on them. That’s all good and nice, but unless I get these in any kind of order, it’s hard to look at. So, I go ahead and use the SORT function. Then it’ll look like this.

Well, getting better, right? The columns are correct (for the first day of the year anyway). Ok. Well, as long as I don’t look to the right of the present day, sure, all is fine. It sure is messy. I kind of liked how I did it this year, with the future blocks looking blank.

Anyway. So. Let’s pretend Jan 5th comes. I’ll input the data at the top part (hidden), and let’s see how this looks.

Well, when it comes in automatically, like how it looks right there, there’s no order to it. The USD comes in at -2.73% (white). And is defaulted in it’s top position. And that second table is those currencies added up for the first 2 days. In no order also. So, I have to put them in order (again, using the sort function). I’ll look like this.

And Journal, there it is. This is what I got. It’s technically correct. I can continue doing this, with the respective groupings, on down, automatically coming together. And I’ll end up with the quarterly, and yearly stats also. No problem.

It just looks so messy to the right. The future block of days that have not come yet. Sure, when I copy and paste my pics on the journal, you won’t see that.

I don’t know. Maybe this is all I can do. I wish there was a way to hide the future blocks without losing the data that is programmed into them.

Well, Journal, that’s what I’ve been up to lately. And I do have other data that I want to automate also. Like how I generate my trading indicator figures. That’s gonna take some time.

Well, time is running out, for me. Next thing you know the new year will be here.

I’ll keep you updated on things.
Alright Journal.
We’ll be in touch.
Mike

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Well, it’s the weekend now. And Christmas is over.
Thank God.
But no, it was good. There’s just so much preparation that goes into it. That’s all.
Money.
Planning.
Gift wrapping. And I’m not talking about a couple presents either. We’re talking like 4 very big boxes full of wrapped up presents. Cause I have to transport them all to my daughters house, where me and my kids gather, for Christmas morning.

Look. I’m thankful. Very thankful that I’m able to do this for them. Every year I try my hardest to give them as much as I can. It’s exhausting, sure, but worth it. On one hand, I wish it would last much longer than it does, but on the other hand, I’m glad when it’s over. You know?

This year was fun though. Particularly because the family is growing. My daughter brought in this world another one. Now I have 2 grandchildren! That does make it much more special. So, that consists of my daughter Sarah (30) with her husband and 2 children. My son Mikey, who turned 28 on Christmas eve. Yep. He’s a Christmas baby. And my son Ian, 21. I’ve mentioned Ian on a previous post, a couple years ago. We thought he was gonna leave the nest and try to make it out there in California. That didn’t work out. And well, he’s still living back home under his mom’s roof. Actually, I never mentioned that he did give it another shot (leave the house for a chance to start his own). Instead of CA, he drove his car to Arkansas (10 hours away). Let’s just say that it didn’t work out. Well, hopefully the 3rd time will be a charm ( I hope there will be a third time, sometime).

Anyway. All my children are doing fine. I will be spending some time with each of them this coming week. See. I make it a point every year, at years end, with each of them, to sit down and talk about what they would like to accomplish in a years time. It’s all written down in a particular notebook for them. I truly believe in medium and long term goals. I think it’s important. And well, year after year, even if we come to the table and find out that whatever it was didn’t come true, then we should get to the bottom of why. Even if it’s simply having out-of-reach goals to begin with. Hopefully we can learn something and try again for the following year. That’s all. Well, for Ian this year, it’s not gonna be pretty. He hasn’t done much at all. I don’t know. I’m gonna have to try to find out what’s the problem. Why is it so hard to find a job, make some money, and even live independently? I don’t know. I just want him to grab a hold of something, and go for it. I just want for him to experience success. Put some effort into something, and reap some benefits. That’s all. Looks like this year I’m gonna have to go with small chunks. Like…how about a job…period. And that’s it. For how long? Yeah, that’s another goal. I don’t know, we’ll talk about it all. One the one hand, I’m not gonna let him go. He absolutely needs to experience success. Some sense of progress. And on the other hand, I’m not gonna exasperate him either. He needs to know that I’m pulling for him. I’ll be there for anything he needs. I’ll accept small victories. Absolutely. We just need to find out what they might be, that’s all.

I’ll tell you what’s funny. How can I see my one son grow up and do everything so right…without me even have to talk to him much about it all. Are you ready for this Journal? Check this out…

Mikey…graduates high school on a Friday. We have his graduation party on that Saturday. And then on that Monday, he’s off for the Marines! Yep. I couldn’t believe that was the plan and is what happened. Did I have talk after talk with him about this stuff? No way! It’s all his doing. His plan was to go into the military, for the purpose of funding his way through college (for free). And that’s precisely what he accomplished. 4 years in the Marines. Then got out and went through 4 years of college. That accomplishment came true this past summer. Then, with a lot of coaching and advise, he wanted to leave the hometown of Pgh, Pa. He packed all of his belongings and moved down to Florida.

And now he’s building himself a home. It does help to have family down there for him (my brother, his uncle). Although he has come up 3 times now since the summer (for visits). I guess he wonders why would he leave family and friends up here. It is sad for him, don’t get me wrong, to make that move. I think once he meets his soul mate, he’ll be golden. That seems to be the missing element in his life. And he knows that, too (a family of his own).

Anyway. My point is. Mikey has lived out, so far, a productive and successful life. And how much did I have to talk to him about it all? None. He just did it.

With Ian, the complete opposite story. For as hard as I’ve tried, since he was very little, to become an independent, hard working individual making something out of his life, it hasn’t happened. Well, up to the present time, anyway. Sometimes I wonder how much of a real influence we have as parents on our children. They’re gonna do what they’re gonna do. At least I can say that I tried, with him. In fact, I might have tried too hard. And, well, maybe that’s where I went wrong.

One of these days, he’ll come around. All I can do is hope maybe it’ll be this year. You know? Don’t worry, I’ll be gentle. But, also, would he want to fail again for this coming year? I really don’t think he wants that. So, we’ll address this stuff.

Anyway. Talk about failure…I mean reflection…let’s get to me.
What was I thinking last year at this time?
Oh boy, here we go.

@MikeWolski

I do, and have always realized, that my trading is not about the money. The puzzle is this. Can I, on a consistent manner, make a profit out of the market. Enough to have a business from?

Well, Journal, I’ve got to tell you what I’ve been working on these last couple weeks. I have gotten up every single morning around 3-4. I’ve poured many, many hours into this plan. And have come up with my theme for this year.

Here it is.

This year will be a year of simulation.
Since I’m not able to, in real life, start my own business. Why not simulate it?

@MikeWolski

This year I’m gonna trade. Demo, that is.
I’m gonna keep track of the cash flow, each and every month.
I will have 3 accounts. My trading account. My business account. My checking account (that’s where I will pay myself from the business at the end of each month).
I will keep records of how the money will be proportioned to each account. Just like I plan on doing, and have always had planned, when I operate my business full time, in real life.
Hey…this is all numbers anyway, right? There’s no reason why I can simulate, and prove to myself whether I can run and operate my own trading business. I mean, my demo account is set with $30,000.
Everything is gonna be documented. And it’s all gonna be about proving to myself whether I can do it or not. This is serious business, to myself. Because, I know, one of these days someone can ask me whether I can do this or not. And if I have the actual numbers to prove that I can, then I at least I know I’ve proved it or not. See. That’s the puzzle, to me.

However long it takes.

But, in the meantime. At this time next year, all I want to do is look back at the numbers. And if I can’t do it, hopefully I will be better at it in the following year. But, I will be demanding of myself of having the numbers. I guess it would be like having a monthly cash flow statement of my business. Now…that’s my real goal. I want to have 12 actual cash flow statements. And to move forward every year, to compare them to each other, and see progress that way.

Wow. Ok.
Where do I begin?

Well, do I have 12 cash flow statements?
No.
I’ll be honest about it. Let me find where I left off at.

Wow. I can’t believe I made it that far. July. Huh…

Look. Journal.
There’s reasons why.
Let me explain.

The primary reason why I haven’t kept up on all that was because my trading strategy changed, throughout the year. And believe me, it’s very difficult to keep doing that when things are changing. It would be so much easier if I kept with one particular way of trading. But that’s not what happened.

A lot has happened.

This year was a year of simulation. Yes. And I’m not ashamed of that, whatsoever.
Demo trading is real to me as anything. I don’t need to convince anyone of that…mainly cause I honestly don’t care what anyone thinks of what I’m doing anyway.

I’ve been down that road of transitioning from demo to real (as in the title of this thread) before. Yeah, that’s nice. That psychological nonsense stuff means nothing to me. I know the feeling of live trading. Spent a couple years doing that. So what. I’m way past the differences between the two. If I can’t prove it to myself, then I’d just be lying to myself, that’s all. It’s as simple as that. And that’s what this is all about. I’d be a fool to go live and prove it to myself that way.

Man Journal…I see post after post about the concerns of going live, as opposed to staying on demo. It’s all common sense stuff. But boy have I been wanting to write up some thoughts on that subject. I just haven’t seen the right place to do it in. It’s like I have a sermon, just waiting to unleash it somewhere.

One of these days I will.

But… to keep on track here.

I am happy with myself of how the year went. But also disappointed in all the changes I underwent.

I just thought that I could keep with the same way of trading, for a good length of time. This way I could keep good records and stats on it. But I honestly can’t say that this year.

I think I’m much closer to that goal, for this coming year. Cause over the last 2 strong months I’ve stuck with only one way of trading. And I can’t imagine changing much from it. So…we’ll see.

Anyway Journal.
I think I’m gonna cut this short. I did put a lot out there, but, I feel I’m just starting. I want to talk more about what I would like to see happen this coming year.

@MikeWolski

Well, Journal, I’ve got to tell you what I’ve been working on these last couple weeks. I have gotten up every single morning around 3-4. I’ve poured many, many hours into this plan. And have come up with my theme for this year.

I said this last year at this time. And it seems like I need to do the same thing. Therefore, I plan on spending a whole lot of time this coming week, every morning, very early, with one kind of journal or another, to come up with a plan for next year. Maybe something more specific. I don’t know…maybe not so specific. We’ll have to see. But in any case, I need to put a lot more thought into this.

We’ll call this part I, of II, of my medium to long term goal for next year.

Journal, I’ll be more prepared the next time I come in here.
Then we’ll really talk.
Thanks for listening.
Mike

[tommor]

Shining honesty Mike. Good luck for the New Year.

[MikeWolski]

Good morning Journal.

Wow! Thank you Tommor! Thanks for the encouragement. It means a lot, coming from someone of your caliber.

Well, looks like this will be part II. Of the starting place of trying to figure out what is the game plan for this year to be. And it just hit me. A remembrance of what I just wrote yesterday. I said that I have a sermon ready to be unleashed. And well, maybe, just maybe, it might be for me. And me alone. So. Here it goes. This is gonna be some talking. And I hope to see and understand something through all this (nonsense).

The subject.

The purpose of demo trading, and the purpose of live trading.

Ok. So. This is how it goes (whether we all like it or not). The progression of becoming a trader (a real trader).

We have to learn.
Everyone is made up differently. Some possess a high degree of intelligence (in it’s various forms) than others. Some are educated more than others, in the field of finance (since we’re talking about money). Some are in touch with their emotions better than others. In other words, some people have more control over what they feel and how they act and react to life’s situations. But surely everyone possess emotions. And by way of human nature, we will all be faced with the fact that decisions we make in life are explicitly tied to our emotions.

And so. We all first come into this field. We quickly realize that this is a simple game. Picking and choosing one thing or another. Were we right or wrong? It’s either one way or the other. You will win or you will lose. Everything’s a 50/50 chance. And so, it’s an easy game. Seemingly.

Therefore, in this discovery, we find that the game is mostly psychological. As opposed to a physical game. Physical is hard. Psychological is easy. We don’t have to lift anything, or even sweat, to become successful at it. All we have to do is figure it out. And how hard can that be.

In my instance, if I have come to master the art of physical hard work. Learned how to accomplish a difficult task and get compensated for it quite nicely. Learned that the harder I push my body the more I can accomplish victory. Even if I don’t have a love for it!

If so…then this psychological game, in which I find that I love, should be a piece of cake. I can accomplish anything. Because…what’s harder than the physical?

Nothing.

Well. It’s still comes down learning.
We need to learn.
I need to learn.

And so. And I remember it so well. 8 years ago this week (in between Christmas and New Year’s…my beginning…'12). I will learn. Whatever it takes. However long it takes. The rest of my life’s work will be this. And it will be a joy (at least I will be able to say that…for the first time in my life about a career).

I’ve never been about the money. I’m old enough, and have learned, that life has nothing to do about money. It’s a deceiving thing. Sure, we need it. Got to pay the bills by it. Just play the living game with it. But, I believe, if it’s the focus of our lives, then we’re gonna miss what’s truly important in life.

In any case, back in my beginning, I truly believed the best way to go about the whole entire thing, trading, is this way. Nothing makes more sense, to me.

Demo trade, the way I should, and when I’m successful there, only then should I transition to live trading. In which the live trading will be nothing but the same exact way I was trading in demo. No difference! Demo = Live.

That is possible. Well, with me it is. Maybe to most people it’s not. And all of that nonsense comes down to how a trader reacts when there’s real money on the line. There is a difference between real money and fake money. But then again, it depends on how you are trading. The more discretionary the trading, the more trouble you’re heading into. But the more mechanical your trading, the better. Because, the factor of emotions shouldn’t be in play when all you’re doing is something preset. All you’re doing is executing a pre planned set of actions. If, then, scenarios.

So. Getting back to a point.
What’s the difference between demo and live? Answer.
Emotions.
Emotions that lead you to make certain decisions.
And all of trading comes down to what decisions we make.

What’s the way to learn?
Go live.
Experience it.
Watch your results, as compared to your results in demo.
Start with a small amount of money (money that you can lose). Then increase that amount, to match your threshold of psychological control.

Well, that only makes sense. Right?

So. What do we have now?
We have the solution, and method, of learning the psychological aspect of trading.
But then what?
Well, there’s a whole lot more. We need to be asking some other questions. Cause, I don’t believe we’ve arrived once we have a handle on our emotions (if that was the case, I’d been successful a long time ago).

The purpose of demo trading, and the purpose of live trading.

From here on out, maybe this is different for each individual. But also, maybe very similar.

We want to become successful.

What is success anyway?

Well, it’ll have to come down to this. Your account balance is gonna have to grow over a length of time. And here again, everyone will have their own standard, or wishes, of how much growth, and over how long of a time.

We all know how a lot of people come into this field with nothing but $$ signs in their eyes. Probably due to the advertising schemes that promote getting rich quick. I mean, who doesn’t want that? Right? Well, that’s not reality. But, you’ll always have those who crash and burn because their expectations, hopes and dreams, don’t pan out. They come and go. We all come to that realization of how difficult the game is.

Those with shallow depth, get shaved off. Those with more determination move on.
Those who have found the ability to learn, last longer.
Those who have found the love for it, last even longer.
Those who have discovered that they were born for this, last to the end (me). Destiny.

Well, in order to move on, trading requires a method of doing so. It’s called the strategy. Plain and simple. It only makes sense. It’s the how.

This brings me back to what I thought of in the beginning. And still believe it’s true.

You demo trade, and prove to yourself that your strategy, method, system will work. Over your preferred length of time.

The mystery is clear. It’s not gonna happen in a relatively short amount of time. It’ll happen, slowly but surely, over a longer period of time. And even that’s all relative to each individual.

Ok. I believe this is exactly where I’m at now. I believe this past year has taught me that my system will work. I’m excited about it, and believe it. But…you know what? I could be deceiving myself. Sure. It’s happened before. I’m aware of this. Just when I think I know something…life will show me differently.

But this is where I’m at right now. I think I’ve spent enough time with every aspect of my trading system, and have seen enough (still working on it though) back testing data to show me what outcomes I will, and can, accept.

Have I perfected it?
Nope.
I kind of sometimes wonder whether my position sizing is correct. But…I have a feeling that I will forever think this (I’m a perfectionist don’t forget).

So. The question for me is…now what?
How do I move on?
What do I need to learn next?
Should I continue to demo, or go live?
What’s the next step in building my business?

I’m thinking, and reminding myself of some of the things I’ve mentioned to myself in the past. So…don’t mind this nonsense. Sometimes I just have to shoot from the hips.

Do I want to start building up some capital for the business?
Should I take it another step forward and put my system to the test, for a mock trading business? Kind of like what I wanted to do this year, but didn’t. Remember…I wanted to generate cash flow statements, on a monthly basis, all with the same strategy? I underwent too many changes for that to happen. Maybe I will be able to do that this year.

Well, I do remember a good conversation. Concerning what to do with a trading account. Live, of course. There’s two different view points. One is capital building. The other is supporting a business by it. The two are different.

— Capital building —

• Generating the most money that you can out of the market
• That strategy would consist of more risk
• The goal and focus is making your trading account balance to grow
• Attached to that could be the different reasons (withdrawal for purchases)
• To attain to a higher level, for progress sake

— Business sustaining —

• Generating money for conducting and sustaining the business
• Paying yourself on a monthly basis
• The strategy is of less risk to ensure it’s purpose
• With more of a focus on long term sustainability

Well, I’m not a wealthy person. I’m just not that lucky to have a lot of money in the bank, even if I did think I was ready. And I’m talking about the amount of money that is deemed necessarily needed.

Given that fact, for some reason I don’t think I should try for the capital building aspect of it. I don’t know…maybe some day down the road…when I have proven my system over and over again. And then maybe that capital building aspect can be utilized much more effectively. Know what I mean?

I think I want to continue on with this theme of proving my strategy, and practicing it.
I mean, what good will it do for me if I go live? I’m not gonna learn anything.

When I really think about it…if I were to go live, wouldn’t I want to build up some capital? I mean, what other reason is there, to go live, to begin with?

I know.
Psychologically!

Well, I don’t have a problem with that. I’ve been there, done that. And moved beyond, like the title of this thread indicates. Let’s move onto what’s really important. And well, in fact, that’s what I’m trying to figure out here. What’s the next important thing for me?

(As I look back on what I just wrote here) Another reason to go live, is, well, to actually start the business. In real life I’m talking about. Since I don’t have the start up capital to do that with, I can’t do that.

Therefore, I will be content working my strategy, system, in the way that I should. By running my business.

Look. That is what I want.
This is my definition of success.

I should always keep this in mind, whatever I plan on doing.
It’s the reason why I wake up in the morning (good memories from my mentoring days).

Yeah. So this year is gonna consist more of what I’ve done this past year.

• Work my strategy with less and less changes to it
• Keep the detailed metrics of the strategy
• Keep records as if I was running my business for real

As in the same way I feel about how I should demo, should be in the same way I feel about how I should run my business. No difference. And all about proving it to myself.

Alright Journal.
This is a good start for this week.
I plan on coming back in here to give some details about what I’m gonna do this year.

Thanks for listening Journal.
Mike