Sweet_Pip:
So when you refer to gaps, you’re not meaning price gaps that we usually see after friday close to Sunday open…when there is a big space between the close of the last candle, and opening of the next candle. Instead of sessions, you’re calling them gaps?
Yes SP your termonology is more correct then mine. ^^ ^^
as mentioned and this is what happaned. GUYS I AM NOT BEING HIGH HAT. I JUST WANT YOU TO SEE WHAT I SEE SO YOU CAN BE BANG ON YOUR FORECAST AND MAKE SOME MONEY
Vinster:
For people looking for a purely mechanical trading style, you will lose money in the long run. The market has a lot of quirks that make some rules work at some times and other rules work at other times. For this reason most successful EA’s are not on all the time but are activated by an intelligent trader when the conditions are right. Dennis does not say that at any time of day or in all conditions will his method work. Here is a list of some market reminders:
The market has different characteristics based on the bankers who happen to be trading that session. Asia prefers Asian currencies, so the EUR is sleepy and ranging. 12pm London time is lunch for the bankers and is before NY open. 12pm NY time is the end of London and lunch for NY so the market is sleepy then too. This means markets will move and range pretty reliably at different times of day depending on which bankers are in the office.
London likes to take out the hitchhikers after the Tokyo range and move market to fake everyone out. If London wants to go down today, it will often run the price up past the previous high or out of the Tokyo ranging market to take out stops and get its positions filled, then run the market down. It is expensive to do this so it happens only twice per day at most, once near London open and once more near or after NY open, but some days you don’t see it at all. Tues, Wed, Thurs are most likely to have this happen. After the first 90 minutes of each trading session, this is less likely to happen. The currencies that this is most likely to happen are EUR, USD and GPB crosses with each other. The ones London and NY like.
NY doesn’t usually run opposite London.
London often takes profit before lunch (sleepy lunch time) causing a retracement and NY takes it the rest of the way.
It is dumb to trade Friday after London closes unless it is NFP day. NY tends to wind down after their lunch and brag about the weeks winnings. If you get out when they do, you can brag too.
The big financial centers tend to run the price in 3 drives. This is a very old theory (Larry Pesavento writes about it). After three more or less equal drives, the market will retrace. Try to understand which cycle you’re in. If there have been two strong pushes up, a third one is really likely. And after three drives a fourth is really unlikely, time for a retrace. This tells you the day’s trading direction bias in advance.
Any daily close below the weekly pivot point is generally considered a bear market. This gives the next day’s bias.
The weekly pivot point is hit 70% of the time during any week. PA will often retrace in a trending market, hit the WPP, then continue the trend. This can help you get a good price on a good trend.
Markets are usually quiet before NFP and the interest rate quotes for any currency. Insiders have the numbers in advance and sometimes are getting in to the market early. The gradual drifting of the market up or down before news very often indicates where the market will go after the news commotion.
NFP and interest rate news can stop you out of a great trend but doesn’t usually change a trend. Remove SL for the first 5 mins of a release or be out of the market. Let the spike happen and get in again with the trend. Not looking at a news calendar before you trade is silly.
It takes at least 15 minutes after big news settles down to know where the market is going.
Central banks often use news to start one of their three drives.
Central banks use news to fool people into getting in on the wrong side of the market.
Any really long candle in any TF of 15m and higher will usually bring along at least one more candle in the same direction. Sometimes many more candles. Remember London and NY often manipulate the sheep into going the wrong direction so be aware of the time of day. An hour candle is less likely to fool you than a 5 minute.
10 pips in 5 minutes (except news) is a VERY STRONG indicator about market intention. Big money just got in. If you got in on that train every time you saw it you would be rich.
NY and London like to drive the EUR/USD about 90-100 pips.
Because the EUR and the CHF are pegged, it makes any third currency an exact mirror of the EUR. So EUR/CHF = EUR/USD x USD/CHF. Since the EUR/CHF is always the same, the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF are exactly mirrored. A squeeze trade will appear on both simultaneously. No need to trade both currencies. This works the same for any third currency.
Japan’s opening bid on Sunday night is worth 20-30 pips on EUR/USD. It starts 7-7:30 pm EDT and goes for about 1-2h.
The market’s job is to fool as many people as possible. There has to be more losers than winners in order for it to work and make profit for some.
Banks who trade against you are also often clearing houses and liquidity providers. They can see where most stops are placed with in their bank and this tells them where most stops are placed with other liquidity providers. Don’t be a sitting duck and put your stop above a previous high. You’ll get nailed.
Thank you for excellent input…really good stuff.
In addition does anyone have experience with live trading real money with a EA: I would like to hear about pros and cons
[QUOTE=dennis14685;411782]as mentioned and this is what happaned. ^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^
true 3 to 5 candles price is plum tuckered
vinster:
for people looking for a purely mechanical trading style, you will lose money in the long run. The market has a lot of quirks that make some rules work at some times and other rules work at other times. For this reason most successful ea’s are not on all the time but are activated by an intelligent trader when the conditions are right. Dennis does not say that at any time of day or in all conditions will his method work. Here is a list of some market reminders:
The market has different characteristics based on the bankers who happen to be trading that session. Asia prefers asian currencies, so the eur is sleepy and ranging. 12pm london time is lunch for the bankers and is before ny open. 12pm ny time is the end of london and lunch for ny so the market is sleepy then too. This means markets will move and range pretty reliably at different times of day depending on which bankers are in the office.
London likes to take out the hitchhikers after the tokyo range and move market to fake everyone out. If london wants to go down today, it will often run the price up past the previous high or out of the tokyo ranging market to take out stops and get its positions filled, then run the market down. It is expensive to do this so it happens only twice per day at most, once near london open and once more near or after ny open, but some days you don’t see it at all. Tues, wed, thurs are most likely to have this happen. After the first 90 minutes of each trading session, this is less likely to happen. The currencies that this is most likely to happen are eur, usd and gpb crosses with each other. The ones london and ny like.
Ny doesn’t usually run opposite london.
London often takes profit before lunch (sleepy lunch time) causing a retracement and ny takes it the rest of the way.
It is dumb to trade friday after london closes unless it is nfp day. Ny tends to wind down after their lunch and brag about the weeks winnings. If you get out when they do, you can brag too.
The big financial centers tend to run the price in 3 drives. This is a very old theory (larry pesavento writes about it). After three more or less equal drives, the market will retrace. Try to understand which cycle you’re in. If there have been two strong pushes up, a third one is really likely. And after three drives a fourth is really unlikely, time for a retrace. This tells you the day’s trading direction bias in advance.
Any daily close below the weekly pivot point is generally considered a bear market. This gives the next day’s bias.
The weekly pivot point is hit 70% of the time during any week. Pa will often retrace in a trending market, hit the wpp, then continue the trend. This can help you get a good price on a good trend.
Markets are usually quiet before nfp and the interest rate quotes for any currency. Insiders have the numbers in advance and sometimes are getting in to the market early. The gradual drifting of the market up or down before news very often indicates where the market will go after the news commotion.
Nfp and interest rate news can stop you out of a great trend but doesn’t usually change a trend. Remove sl for the first 5 mins of a release or be out of the market. Let the spike happen and get in again with the trend. Not looking at a news calendar before you trade is silly.
It takes at least 15 minutes after big news settles down to know where the market is going.
Central banks often use news to start one of their three drives.
Central banks use news to fool people into getting in on the wrong side of the market.
Any really long candle in any tf of 15m and higher will usually bring along at least one more candle in the same direction. Sometimes many more candles. Remember london and ny often manipulate the sheep into going the wrong direction so be aware of the time of day. An hour candle is less likely to fool you than a 5 minute.
10 pips in 5 minutes (except news) is a very strong indicator about market intention. Big money just got in. If you got in on that train every time you saw it you would be rich.
Ny and london like to drive the eur/usd about 90-100 pips.
Because the eur and the chf are pegged, it makes any third currency an exact mirror of the eur. So eur/chf = eur/usd x usd/chf. Since the eur/chf is always the same, the eur/usd and the usd/chf are exactly mirrored. A squeeze trade will appear on both simultaneously. No need to trade both currencies. This works the same for any third currency.
Japan’s opening bid on sunday night is worth 20-30 pips on eur/usd. It starts 7-7:30 pm edt and goes for about 1-2h.
The market’s job is to fool as many people as possible. There has to be more losers than winners in order for it to work and make profit for some.
Banks who trade against you are also often clearing houses and liquidity providers. They can see where most stops are placed with in their bank and this tells them where most stops are placed with other liquidity providers. Don’t be a sitting duck and put your stop above a previous high. You’ll get nailed.
everyone take note of this post…its spot on
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 8:57am
802
You were right. It hit the Weekly pivot point and turned around. My indicator didn’t project it because the day hadn’t closed yet but the bankers knew where it was.
Thanks again for your time.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 9:46am
803
Sorry if I’m asking you to repeat. Please explain how the sessions affect price. The move up just before London(Gap3?) is probably Frankfurt getting in. Can that indicate where we’ll be going?
I can see you bought at the significant support at 1.3017. Nice. I went short for a little loss. Trading very small.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 10:30am
804
Just sold a double top on the GJ. I expect a possible stop run as London is closing for a possible drop during NY.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 11:46am
805
NZD/USD is starting to range. Bought off the WPP and is in profit now. I was about 5 pips late but still at the bottom of the range.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 11:59am
806
Took the range for 8.2 pips. Set a pending order at 8185, at the top of the range.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 12:28pm
807
USDJPY has 8 green in a row, is hitting the top of a daily PPZ (price pivot zone) and on the 1h shows a string of doji’s. 8 greens plus confluence resistance makes this highly likely to become a sell for a few days. Will look for more PA confirmation (probably an hourly outside bearish engulfing bar) for a short back toward the WPP.
Thanks for the ICT videos. Watching them now.
Vinster
October 22, 2012, 12:32pm
808
Closed the GBPJPY for 18+3 pips. It was such a decisive thrust up, I figured it was better to get out positive. SHould have looked at the 15m before opening position. I sold at the bottom of a channel. PA moved against me, so I added more at teh top of the channel and waited for the price to come back. It did, and I’m flat for now.
I am having trouble following this…sorry.
dennis14685:
we want buys or sells in the pink zone only. Gap 2 correct?
contrary buy sells would only be after london open if this fits play =
“after london” is gap 3 right…so the following are for gap 3 only or both gap 2 & 3?
candle price down not exceed the 20 period for short visa versa for long. ???
Or price brakes the 20 above long the 20 do nothing - if next candle opens above 20 above last candle close go long. ???
Or price brakes the 20 above long the 20 do nothing - if next candle opens below the 20 below the green candle close go short. ???
But play close attention to SR for validation always
Can you expand a little more please…thank you
Yeah I’m a little confused as well, so if we are looking at the charts and it appears there is a Short SQ forming, we see the end of NY session and also look at the Asian session, once the Asian session establishes a range within the same range as the very end of NY session, then we would sell in the very beginning of London session, and SELL at the TOP of the ASIAN session?
And here’s an indicator I got from another thread, it defines and shows you where the different sessions start and end
Market Hours.zip (848 Bytes)
Here’s a short on EURUSD. I entered just above the 20ma at the upper yellow channel trendline, which also was a prior resistance area (red line). Stop moved to +5 and 1/2 closed… +35 so far…
I like these points. In about 5 mins, there will be a high impact news release for any GBP pairs and I was considering using the 5 min chart to detect any elephant bars that result…but this has given me something to be aware of especially about getting faked out…hmmmm.
