so it looks like this then can a
nalysis market timeing important
hey frank i got the precise time zones specification dennis wanted
just gimme a buzz at skype :22:
so we can work on it quick 
[^^^^^^^:)
shame that buy and sell was on a demo account…sucks
[quote=dennis14685;411453]^^ ^^
Dennis,
- The EUR/USD is squeezing now. Should we take entry when it hits the 20?
- Is there any way to predict Japan’s Sunday opening bid direction? I would guess it should go up to hit the 20 so London can close the squeeze.
- In the post above you’re describing Oliver Velez’s 20SMA snap back? “When the 20 is flat, it’s a ranging market and the price will swing around the 20 and snap back it.”
- From looking at charts, the squeeze really is only valid when the 20 and 200 are converging with momentum as is happening on the E/U? I’m on my mobile but will post screen shots later.
I’ll probably get in very small at market open and add to the position if Japan goes north. If it goes down, ill just wait. Either way I’ll TP at the 200 or move stop to BE since this spike up may start its fall now.
It looks like there is a point where the 20 is sending the price away from the 200, then a point where the price doesn’t care about the 20, then the 20 contains price and brings it back to the 200. We need to see the containment first before trading the squeeze. If PA isn’t obeying the 20, the 20 can’t squeeze it against the 200.
i agree i would define eur usd within same trend charecter as of the 18th down trend however price has found significant support at 1.30173. price is within a SQ zone however not in a SQ entry. I would wait for GAP 2 in tokyo to enter
YES THATS RIGHT…we need to see pressure, buy selling pressure
in tokyo no direction for eur, expect tight range in gap 2…watch bias sell the high of tokyo with sl tight…but keep in mind, theres a strong support that stoped euro in its tracks on friday. want to see some errosion of that to be determined prior to london
^^ ^^ ^^ ^^:41:
For people looking for a purely mechanical trading style, you will lose money in the long run. The market has a lot of quirks that make some rules work at some times and other rules work at other times. For this reason most successful EA’s are not on all the time but are activated by an intelligent trader when the conditions are right. Dennis does not say that at any time of day or in all conditions will his method work. Here is a list of some market reminders:
- The market has different characteristics based on the bankers who happen to be trading that session. Asia prefers Asian currencies, so the EUR is sleepy and ranging. 12pm London time is lunch for the bankers and is before NY open. 12pm NY time is the end of London and lunch for NY so the market is sleepy then too. This means markets will move and range pretty reliably at different times of day depending on which bankers are in the office.
- London likes to take out the hitchhikers after the Tokyo range and move market to fake everyone out. If London wants to go down today, it will often run the price up past the previous high or out of the Tokyo ranging market to take out stops and get its positions filled, then run the market down. It is expensive to do this so it happens only twice per day at most, once near London open and once more near or after NY open, but some days you don’t see it at all. Tues, Wed, Thurs are most likely to have this happen. After the first 90 minutes of each trading session, this is less likely to happen. The currencies that this is most likely to happen are EUR, USD and GPB crosses with each other. The ones London and NY like.
- NY doesn’t usually run opposite London.
- London often takes profit before lunch (sleepy lunch time) causing a retracement and NY takes it the rest of the way.
- It is dumb to trade Friday after London closes unless it is NFP day. NY tends to wind down after their lunch and brag about the weeks winnings. If you get out when they do, you can brag too.
- The big financial centers tend to run the price in 3 drives. This is a very old theory (Larry Pesavento writes about it). After three more or less equal drives, the market will retrace. Try to understand which cycle you’re in. If there have been two strong pushes up, a third one is really likely. And after three drives a fourth is really unlikely, time for a retrace. This tells you the day’s trading direction bias in advance.
- Any daily close below the weekly pivot point is generally considered a bear market. This gives the next day’s bias.
- The weekly pivot point is hit 70% of the time during any week. PA will often retrace in a trending market, hit the WPP, then continue the trend. This can help you get a good price on a good trend.
- Markets are usually quiet before NFP and the interest rate quotes for any currency. Insiders have the numbers in advance and sometimes are getting in to the market early. The gradual drifting of the market up or down before news very often indicates where the market will go after the news commotion.
- NFP and interest rate news can stop you out of a great trend but doesn’t usually change a trend. Remove SL for the first 5 mins of a release or be out of the market. Let the spike happen and get in again with the trend. Not looking at a news calendar before you trade is silly.
- It takes at least 15 minutes after big news settles down to know where the market is going.
- Central banks often use news to start one of their three drives.
- Central banks use news to fool people into getting in on the wrong side of the market.
- Any really long candle in any TF of 15m and higher will usually bring along at least one more candle in the same direction. Sometimes many more candles. Remember London and NY often manipulate the sheep into going the wrong direction so be aware of the time of day. An hour candle is less likely to fool you than a 5 minute.
- 10 pips in 5 minutes (except news) is a VERY STRONG indicator about market intention. Big money just got in. If you got in on that train every time you saw it you would be rich.
- NY and London like to drive the EUR/USD about 90-100 pips.
- Because the EUR and the CHF are pegged, it makes any third currency an exact mirror of the EUR. So EUR/CHF = EUR/USD x USD/CHF. Since the EUR/CHF is always the same, the EUR/USD and the USD/CHF are exactly mirrored. A squeeze trade will appear on both simultaneously. No need to trade both currencies. This works the same for any third currency.
- Japan’s opening bid on Sunday night is worth 20-30 pips on EUR/USD. It starts 7-7:30 pm EDT and goes for about 1-2h.
- The market’s job is to fool as many people as possible. There has to be more losers than winners in order for it to work and make profit for some.
- Banks who trade against you are also often clearing houses and liquidity providers. They can see where most stops are placed with in their bank and this tells them where most stops are placed with other liquidity providers. Don’t be a sitting duck and put your stop above a previous high. You’ll get nailed.
So when you refer to gaps, you’re not meaning price gaps that we usually see after friday close to Sunday open…when there is a big space between the close of the last candle, and opening of the next candle. Instead of sessions, you’re calling them gaps?
Sweet Pip,
You might be on to something here! Trading the second bar after a news “elephant bar” might be the neatest easiest “system” or method to trade the news.
Look for the first closed 60 or even 30 minute “elephant bar” after a red flag news event and then jump in the second bar for 15-20-plus pips. Easy to schedule too.
Do something as simple as this 2-3 times a week could start to really add up at the end of the month. I like it! 
So I’m practicing the squeeze and the 20 trend BSC-short and BLC-long and the range snap using the 20.
EUR/USD is squeezing down. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
EUR/JPY is squeezing down. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
AUD/USD is squeezing down. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
GBP/JPY is squeezing down. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
USD/CAD is ready for a BLC-long. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
NZD/USD isn’t ready for anything but it looks like it ranges pretty often during NY session after London close. Will watch for that tomorrow.
EUR/GBP - indecisive PA.
GBP/USD is ready for a BSC-short. Wait for PA to hit the 20 again.
For all SQ trades: 2 positions, close 1/2 at 50%, move stop to BE and leave open for trend run as it clears the 200 and keeps going (possibly).
For BLC-BSC. Probably project TP from last drop/rise in the trend. I guess: 2 positions, close 1/2 at 50%, move stop to BE and leave open for trend run.
For range: Buy at bottom, sell at top. TP at 75% to the other end and SL at 50-60%? Not sure about this one. Welcome suggestions. Not every range is 20 full pips but the R/R needs to be worth it.
These are some trades Oliver Velez describes:
- 3-5 rule for daily charts. Statistically it is very unlikely that any chart can have more than 3-5 daily candles of the same color. After three reds place a pending order above the last reds high with a SL below the red’s low. If there is a 4th or 5th red candle, move the pending ready for the pull back. The opposite is true for three or more greens. This tends to fail in ranging markets or if there are 7 or 8 reds or greens it is because a couple of them are doji, indecision candles. That means this works best if you are trading in the direction of a trend with momentum. For this trade set up, any PA above the up slanting 200SMA is trending up and any PA below the down slanted 200SMA is trending down. This is a much better trade if the last candle in the 3-5 run is small indicating indecision and especially if it is also hitting a major S/R like the 200SMA.
- Elephant trade. A daily candle that is 2-3 larger than the average of the last 35-50 trading days is an elephant. It means institutions are in agreement about where price should go. And elephant candle will usually mean the beginning of a trend has started and you can take the market for at least one more day in the same direction of the elephant candle. Pending below elephant, SL is above. SMALL POSITIONS ONLY!! Much is at risk but this is a really high probability trade. Elephant candles can start 800-1200 pip runs. Open 2 or more positions, TP after 1 day, move stop to 1/2 of elephant candle. After next day, move stop to BE. Let this run and move stop 2 days away .
He uses day candles but I’ve noticed pretty much every elephant candle from 15m and higher tends to bring at least one friend along in the same direction
Here’s my screen. Shows sessions, Weekly Pivot point, average days range and has the MA’s. Light blue is a 100 that I may remove. Dark blue is the 200. Yellow marks the 100’s. Dotted grey marks NY close to make counting days back easier.
I believe you enter at the last few minutes or less of the elephant bar, or seconds depending on what timeframe you’re on. Did you watch Oliver Valez’s video on them? YouTube
Sweet Pip,
No I haven’t watched Oliver’s video. :56: But, a few years ago I sat in on one of Oliver’s free online “Kamikaze” programs and I remember the general concepts, but guess I’ve forgotten some of the entry details, I’ll watch the vid for a refresh. But yeah jumping in a few minutes before the bar close would add to the pip count, right?
I have a crap load of Oliver’s stuff from his days at Pristine, he was one of my early trading gurus. I should figure out how to share some of it here without violating too many of the copy write laws. :27: