My Long Road Back to Forex – Falling, Failing, and Starting Over

[LEBO1997]

Yeah, I’m deep into learning the concepts now. It’s complex but finally starting to click.

Appreciate you looking out!

[LEBO1997]

@Johnny1974

‘I accept that my way is not the only way. I describe my way. Whatever you decide is right for you is right for you. Trust it.’

That’s a brilliant quote. It hits on something crucial I’m realizing: the real edge isn’t in the strategy itself, but in the unwavering trust you build in your own way.

Thanks for sharing that, @Johnny1974

[mtb_rex]

Consistency is really the name of the game. And its the thing you can completely blow up in a single trade if you’re not disciplined and using proper risk management.

I don’t know how many times I’ve had a FOMO trade blow me up. I don’t know how many times a winning streak turned into a losing streak because I thought I knew what the market was going to do, and I broke away from my rules, and then the market did the complete opposite and continued to do the opposite for a really long time.

At least in my experience you have to do the boring stuff over and over and over and half the time you might still lose, but the other half of the time is enough to make you profitable. But will the first 50% keep you from coming back and wear you down because you think you need to win more?

Risk management and it’s effect on profitability is key to understanding how often you really need to win. You don’t need to win every trade. New traders get caught up in that close to 100% win rate. It’s not necessary. You could even win less than 50% and still come out on top.

[LEBO1997]

This really hits home. I’ve blown up my account too by chasing trades and breaking my rules.

You’re so right about the boring stuff. I’m learning that discipline is more important than any secret strategy.

And realizing I don’t need a high win rate to be profitable? That changes everything. Thank you for this reality check.

[mtb_rex]

@LEBO1997

I’m learning that discipline is more important than any secret strategy.

Yes, this.

Discipline to review this week’s events.
Discipline to use the correct position sizing based on your account funds.
Discipline to add stops.
Discipline to add TPs.
Discipline not to FOMO in because you see giant candles moving fast.
Discipline not to revenge trade.
Discipline to stick to your entry and exit rules.
Discipline to trade with the trend for the highest chance of success.
Discipline to journal your trades.
Discipline to review your losing trades and learn from them.

There’s more but this should help keep you on track.

[SchmaltzHerring]

@LEBO1997

And realizing I don’t need a high win rate to be profitable? That changes everything.

I think a high win rate is very strongly advisable, especially in the early stages.

@TerryMc

That’s why professional traders focus on asymmetric reward — bigger wins, smaller losses.

As anyone who has ever worked in the industry will tell you, they actually collectively do exactly the opposite!

@TerryMc

Experienced traders chase good risk-to-reward and protect their capital.

I think this is awful advice.

People have different opinions about what’s a “good” R/R. Some people think “good” and “high” are similar (newsflash: they’re not!).

In forums, many people like (and advise) risk to reward of 1:2+; among professional and successful traders, 1:1 is about the maximum; among prop firm customers doing evaluations, the average is 1:2+ (they always say) but among the far smaller proportion of people actually passing them, it’s normally under 1:1; in the trading industry, on trading floors, for fast intraday trading, around 0.7 or 0.75 is actually pretty standard.

But there you go: we all decide for ourselves whose advice we choose to listen to.

For anyone open-minded enough to look at some experienced, professional, successful traders explaining why the popular forum advice of 1:2 and a lower win-rate is so mistaken and misguided, the links below might be interesting -

Beginner question - leverage and trade example

OMG. Among successful daytraders a typical reward-to-risk is around 0.5 to 0.8, or something like that. It’s almost always LESS than 1.0. It’s among people posting in retail trading forums that one often, sadly, finds the “advice” to trade with a take-profit target of 2-to-3 times (or more!!) the size of the stop loss. It’s shockingly bad advice that actively prevents huge numbers of people from ever becoming profitable. I’ve noticed here that people who point out this reality sometimes get …

Zone recovery strategy

If you can “only win 40% of the time” then all the people sitting on trading floors earning 7 figure salaries and bonuses (even if they’re almost all virtual trading-floors, these days) must be doing something terribly wrong, because they seem to believe the exact opposite!! This myth just won’t die out. At least, in forums full of struggling retail traders it won’t die out. And it gets continually reinforced on Youtube, in PDF’s and on websites where people are selli…

Risk reward Ratio for scalping?

this is just nonsense sorry to appear so contradictory, but some of the people expressing their beliefs on this subject simply have no idea what they’re talking about at all!!

This Week's Question: What's a Commonly Perceived Trading Mistake That You Personally Think Isn't One?

Not quite. (Sorry, I didn’t word it well!). I’m saying that the common advice that taking a trade with an R under 1.0 is a mistake, is itself mistaken, because those can be very good trades (and some people - among professional traders many people - make a full-time living from them). My own vary, sometimes a bit more than 1.0, usually less. The often seen forum perspective, of sticking to 1:2 (reward twice as big as risk) really is horribly bad advice, and is the reason some people fail, IMO…

Beginner question - leverage and trade example

Do you think so? Some people posting in beginners’ forums might even agree with you, because retail daytraders usually recommend an R:R of at least 1.5 or 2.0 or even more. They’re united by that, and by the reality that almost none of them is trading profitably. In great contrast, among successful and/or professional daytraders, a typical R:R would be around 0.5 to 0.8: around the figure originally used in the example given by @AnnaProbably. But the main point you’re missing is t…

Risk Reward Ratio

There’s always quite a bit of confusion,in forum conversations, between risk-to-reward and reward-to-risk. The “industry standard term”, for what it’s worth (if anything) is “risk-to-reward” so having the reward twice the size of the risk is normally stated as “1:2”. My own belief is that almost no retail CFD traders are steadily profitable with net reward greater than net risk. In forums, of course, everyone’s profitable, and they’re all trading with something like 1:2 (reward twice the size …

[LEBO1997]

This is incredibly valuable context, thank you. It seems the core of your argument is about the realistic execution of a trading plan, which is exactly what I’m trying to learn.

My current strategy is built on the institutional sweep concept, which theoretically aims for those larger moves. I’m going to demo-trade it as designed, but I’ll now be paying very close attention to the relationship between my win rate and my average R:R.

Your point hasn’t changed my plan, but it has sharpened my focus. I’m no longer just looking for ‘profits’, I’m now specifically testing whether I can achieve the win rate this strategy requires to be viable.

[Hopsack]

Nice journey and respect for sticking through all those cycles. Most people disappear after the first few blows but you are committed and that says a lot. The restart phase hits hard but it’s also where things finally click if you slow down like you’re doing now. A couple thoughts that helped me: Journal your emotions as much as your trades coz half the game is mindset. A good routine beats motivation as charts feel easier when you have structure. Stay in the slow lane until it starts paying you to speed up.

[LEBO1997]

You’re right about writing down my feelings. I just started tracking my trades, but I will add my emotions too.

“Stay in the slow lane” - I like that. I’m learning to be patient now.
I appreciate your advice.

I just realized something, I’m actually really enjoying this forum. Learning from everyone’s experience makes the journey feel less lonely. Thanks for all the support.