My Trading Log

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
229

EUR against:
GBP - fell but recovered and closed only slightly down
JPY - declined sharply, recovered some but still closed as a convincing bearish outside day
USD - tested 1.43 major R level, failed and closed down

EUR showed weakness against JPY and USD today.

EURGBP

1728×1080

Chart patterns: none identified

General S/R analysis: Price is respecting the rising S trendline which began June 22. Bounced off of it today.
On the upside, price has found some R in the 0.86-0.87 zone.

VSA: suggests weakness IMO, but it’s not very clear. Two upthrusts on low volume during July and falling volume lately as price edges higher. Then again it’s vacation time so I feel VSA is unclear.

Bias: unclear, but I’m leaning slightly to a bearish bias.

EURJPY

1728×1080

Chart patterns: potential head and shoulders with right shoulder being formed now, requires good will to see

General S/R analysis: Broke through and closed below trendline July 7. Trendline retested July 27/28 - now acting as R trendline. Price bounced off of it and also off the minor R zone 135.3-135.7

VSA: June 5 may have been a climax top. Otherwise nothing particular that I can see on VSA

Bias: Bearish

EURUSD

1728×1080

Chart patterns: Potential double top with second top now forming. Not a text book example of the pattern.

General S/R analysis: Price tested the Strong R at 1.43 and failed today. On the downside there are two S trendlines, the first one coming in at approx 1.41 if reached 20090729. The older trendline is a bit further down.

VSA: Several long wicked candles recently. Seems to not be much strength in up moves.

Bias: Bearish

230

GBP against:
EUR - strengthened but fell back later, closed slightly up
JPY - fell sharply, recovered slightly but closed as a bearish outside bar
USD - made a new weekly high but then fell and closed down

GBPJPY

1728×1080

Chart patterns: We’ve recently witnessed a nice H&S play out. Nothing of interest right now though.

General S/R analysis: Price broke through and closed below the trendline on July 7. Since then the trendline has acted as R. No horisontal R above for a good distance, below S zone begins a 151.5

VSA: Recent upmove seems to be running out of steam. July 24 & 27 low volume suggesting no demand. As price went down July 28 volume increased.

Bias: Bearish

GBPUSD

1728×1080

Chart patterns: none of interest

General S/R analysis: Since beginning of June price has tested the 1.66 R zone and failed. In July price hasn’t been able to reach up to test the zone, instead the S trendline has been tested twice. The second test is going on right now.

VSA: June 30 is an upthrust on low volume suggesting smart money want to unload their positions by fooling the weak money that price is going higher.

Bias: Bearish

231

Wow o99o you need bigger charts…I can hardly see em.:smiley:

232

JPY against:
EUR - strengthened substantially although it fell back some toward the close
GBP - same as for EUR, strengthened substantially although it fell back some toward the close
USD - strengthened here as well, but fell back more toward the end than against the two ther majors. Did however close as a clear down day, albeit with a noteworthy lower wick.

USDJPY

1728×1080

Chart patterns: none

General S/R analysis: recently broke through the 93.5-94.0 zone and bounced off of it today suggesting the zone acts as S now. Above R zone begins at 95.75 and higher up is a R trendline.

VSA: Recent days action suggest no demand to me, especially the low volume following the very bullish candle July 23. No followtrough.

Bias: Slightly bearish

233

USD against:
EUR - fell initially but when EUR failed at 1.43 it turned around and the USD strengthened
GBP - fell initially but then turned around and closed stronger against the GBP
JPY - fell sharply against the Yen, recovered somewhat but still closed for a bearish outside bar

USD index

800×550

The index fell and made a new low, but then turned and closed for a bullish outside bar.

234

Yeah, I know they’re big, but I learned from Tymen that you actually need really big charts in order to see well.

235

[B]EURGBP[/B]
Potential short on convincing break and close below S trendline
Potential long on convincing break and close above 0.87 R zone
[B]
EURJPY
[/B]Pending short order placed @ 134.6, with SL @ 136.5, preliminary TP @ 132.0
[B]
EURUSD
[/B]Potential short on convincing break and close below S trendline
Long positions currently unlikely
[B]
GBPJPY
[/B]Pending short order placed @ 156.0, with SL @ 159.1, preliminary TP @ 152.5
Long positions currently unlikely
[B]
GBPUSD
[/B]Potential short on convincing break and close below S trendline
Long positions considered on break and close above 1.6770
[B]
USDJPY[/B]
Potential trades on convincing breaks or bounces when price reaches S or R zones

236

sorry to get off track here…but your charts got me to thinking what the perfect sized chart is to post…

What size are yours if I may ask?

Here’s my tests…

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/27193-just-test-annoyed.html#post123382

Again sorry for the rabbit trail.

237

No worries

I take 1920x1200 screenshots since that’s my screen resolution, then I upload them at Photobucket using the 1 megabyte option.

I like Photobucket better than Imageshack which I used previously because it’s easier to organize your pictures in different folders and sub-folders.

238

Since I’m at the computer, a short update.

Neither of the two pending orders have been hit yet. I wanted to get slightly better entry prices but so far that hasn’t happened.

If pending orders don’t get hit during the day I’ll always remove them and then it will depend on the next analysis if they’re added again or not.

239

GBPJPY short pending has been hit

I’m removing the EURJPY pending since EUR never went up to hit my trigger level. Hindsight says it would have been smarter to open at market, but these are things we cannot know and therefor we should not fret over it.

I’ll post todays analysis later tonight.

241

Update on active trades:
GBPJPY short was triggered and is active
EURJPY failed to trigger pending order and has been removed

EUR general strength today against:
GBP - fell sharply completing an evening star-like candle formation
JPY - fell, but recovered roughly half the decline, closed down
USD - fell sharply

GBP general strength today against:
EUR - gained substantially
JPY - indecisive, doji-like action today, closed slightly up
USD - fell

JPY general strength today against:
EUR - rose, but lost roughly half the ascent, closed up
GBP - indecisive, doji-like action today, closed slightly down
USD - fell, forming a harami candle with upper and lower wicks, both touching S/R zones

USD general strength today against:
EUR - rose substantially
GBP - rose
JPY - rose, forming a harami candle with both end wicks
USD Index chart:

Index seems to be in the process of completing a double bottom, ascent may just be beginning

Strongest currency today of the four: USD

Weakest currency today of the four: EUR

EURGBP charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
None
General S/R analysis
Price tested and failed against 0.8660 R zone and thereafter went down to penetrate and close below S trendline.

VSA analysis
Volume higher today on break of trendline suggesting smart money is interested in this bearish move

Bias
Bearish, although a retest of the trendline may be expected

EURJPY charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
As written yesterday, potential, messy H&S

General S/R analysis
Nothing much happened today, price ranged up and down, closing slightly down

VSA analysis
Intraday look at hourly shows low volume on up bars and highest volume during day on down bar with a relatively long upper wick. Looks like weakness to me.

Bias
Bearish

EURUSD charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
Potential messy double top

General S/R analysis
After failing to break the 1.43 R yesterday, price today went on to break and close below the first S trendline

VSA analysis
1H, first hour of Frankfurt shows a beatiful example of a so called test, albeit volume was slightly higher than in a textbook example. Price was pushed down wildly to see how much buying interest was left in the market.
Trendline was broken through when New York came online. Selling may have climaxed for now.

Bias
Bearish, but a retest of the trendline might be coming up first

242

GBPJPY charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
None of interest

General S/R analysis
Doji formed today, new lower low formed. Price closed below the 155.5 level.

VSA analysis
High volume - lots of effort, but little result. This is a sign of weakness as it formed on an up bar.

Bias
Bearish

GBPUSD charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
None of interest

General S/R analysis
Price broke through and closed just below S trendline which may now become R trendline.

VSA analysis
Looking at 1H chart, first hour after London closed shows a good example of no demand. looking at daily volume, it was high, suggesting that the break is supported by smart money.

Bias
Bearish although a retest of the trendline might be in store.

USDJPY charts:

1728×1080

Confirmed/potential chart patterns
None

General S/R analysis
Price first tested the S zone starting at 94.00, bounced there and then proceeded to again assault and fail at the 95.40 R level. A lower top may be forming.

VSA analysis
Looking intraday we see that the assault up was supported by much lower volume than the test of the 94.00 level. That suggests that there’s really no interest among smart money to attack higher levels.

Bias
Short

243

Projected strongest currency tomorrow: JPY

Projected weakest currency tomorrow: EUR

[B]EURGBP[/B] potential short on retest and failure at trendline

[B]EURJPY [/B]no trades, missed the train yesterday

[B]EURUSD[/B] potential sell on retest and failure at broken trendline

[B]GBPJPY[/B] already active short position

[B]GBPUSD[/B] new short trade entered now, with SL @ 1.6450 and TP @ 1.6260

[B]USDJPY[/B] new short trade entered now, with SL @ 95.55 and preliminary TP @ 93.70

244

I forgot to mention that in order to track my performance, I’m starting an index set to 1000 initially.

The percentual changes to the index will reflect how my trading either compounds or decomposes :smiley:

As mentioned earlier, the goal is for the index to grow by 1% per week on average.

245

.

Nice! How are you going to name it!

246

How about the MacGyver Index :slight_smile:

247

Ha works for me! I’ll be watching for that index!

248

Unfortunately the GBPUSD trade hit the SL, which gives us the first completed trade for a 2% account loss.

Current MacGyver Index: 980

249

I felt uneasy about that trade since I took it.
When i got the chance now I closed it at break even. Seems wrong to me to trade the two bullish currencies against each other.

Will discuss this more in tonights analysis