Well, we have had a very exciting and interesting election night here in Sweden. As a result I haven’t done my weekend fx analysis, I’ll do that tomorrow night instead.
Currently GBPUSD open with SL in positive territory.
Quick update.
GBPUSD stopped out today bringing the account almost exactly to the starting equity.
Tonight’s chart analysis yielded three pairs of interest:
CADCHF, EURCAD and GBPUSD.
I see the uploaded charts turned out so-so. I’ll make better uploads in the future, but I think one can make out that these pairs are all potentially forming that lower high or higher low that we’re looking for. Trade in the direction of the main trend and use a CBL to enter at interesting locations and voila!
Charts below:
Both yes and no. The good news was that the right coaltition won, the bad news was that the rascist party made it into the riksdag.
The final results aren’t in yet and there’s still a chance that the right wing coalition will get a majority, that’s what I’m hoping for. If they don’t we’ll get a so called hung parliament which would be a shame.
Totally beat again tonight. My workout is killing me 
Missed the GBPUSD entry so I’m going to watch it from the sidelines.
No charts tonight, but I have been thinking about some interesting possible changes. Some related to the trading plan and some technological.
Will experiment at work tomorrow a little bit. Off to bed now for sure!
Life is for living mate, I follow this thread with interest and it often amazes me how hard you make trading.
Haha! To each his own 
I like the 4H and up TF and yes, that kind of collides with life but I’m finding better and better ways of making it work without discomfort.
Yes, that is so right fair dos, if it suits you and it’s working for you, it’s the right thing.
Indeed, or one of the other pairs that were on my watchlist but that I missed…
Right now however I’m focusing on evaluating the approach and as far as that goes a pair like AUDCAD confirms my beliefs.
Rules and Goals:
[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve three consecutive profitable months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li]Netdania.com ChartStation demo will be used for all charting[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li]4H bars close at 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 22 GMT+1[/li][/ol]
[li]Trading will be performed with Oanda FXGame accounts[/li][li]Trades will be placed using Oanda FXTrade and Oanda FXTrade for Android[/li][/LIST]
[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li][li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li][ol]
[li] The risk per trade will always be 1.5%[/li][LIST=1]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 3%[/li][/ol]
[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 10x the normal risk, that is, 15%[/li][ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 30%[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL[/li][ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at around 1R as circumstances allow[/li][/ol]
[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li][ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]
[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li][ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]
[li] Records:[/li][ol]
[li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]
[li] During the weekend as well as every evening a detailed analysis is performed where pairs of interest are noted and placed on the Watchlist. The Watchlist may contain a maximum of two pairs.[/li]
[ol]
[li]Every night the appropriate position size Pprimary is calculated for a 1 pip SL position for the pair(s) on the Watchlist. This is used for quickly calculating the correct position size during the next day:[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li]Position size = Pprimary / n, where n is the number of pips in the desired SL[/li][/ol]
[/LIST]
[li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li][ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]
[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li][ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li][LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]
[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]
[li]Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]
As per the post below I’ve made some changes to the demo trading plan.
These changes were all made with the intent of simplifying the trading method. Less work will be required to place an order and I’ll have to watch no more than two pairs during the day.
I’m placing CADJPY and NZDJPY on my watchlist for possible long trades.
In fact, CADJPY would already have triggered the 4H CBL last week, so I may actually decide to enter straight away. Will consider while brushing teeth.
CADJPY triggered shortly after my pending order was placed and as I write the trade is negative by 38 pips. We shall see if the trend will reassert itself or not. Seems it has been a slow day in the markets today btw.
NZDJPY has a pending order that hasn’t triggered.
After looking through the charts tonight my conclusion is that nothing much has changed since my weekend analysis and as a result I’m keeping NZDJPY on the Watchlist. Nothing else that warrants immediate attention that I could find.
As usual, details can be found in myfxbook, should anyone care.
Major changes to the Demo Trading Plan. These changes have been on my mind for a while but it wasn’t until today I finally decided they will be implemented.
I’m completely removing the “standard risk” demo to put all my focus on the Kelly demo. In spite of it going against all common sense, dispensed not least by me plentifully around BP, I have faith in the mathematical correctness of the Kelly criterion and thus it is inefficient to trade less than the Kelly ratio, just as it is unwise to trade more than the Kelly ratio.
The price of trading according to Kelly is huge swings in the equity curve, but I think and hope I now have the psyche to endure that. The demo trading will be no problem anyway. For this very reason I’ve decided to trade with live money instead, I’ve diverted a very small amount of my live account balance to a sub account. It will be a live demo, if you will, nevertheless the psychological component will be slightly better represented this way.
Hence, I’m killing both of the myfxbook demo’s and I will shortly add a new one that will track the tiny live demo instead.
This wasn’t the only change though and in the next post comes the updated demo trading plan.
Rules and Goals:
[ol]
[li] The goal of the demo trading is to achieve a net profitable result after a minimum of three consecutive months.[/li]Only months when trades have been taken count, no trading months are viewed as non existent when performance is reviewed.
[li] The home chart for trading will be the 4H time frame.[/li]2H and 8H are also allowed for trading.
[li] Charts and demo accounts[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] Netdania.com ChartStation demo will be used for all charting[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] 4H bars close at 02, 06, 10, 14, 18, 22 GMT+1[/li][/ol]
[li] Trading will be performed with an Oanda FXGame account[/li][li] Trades will be placed using Oanda FXTrade and Oanda FXTrade for Android[/li][/LIST]
[li] The charts will be checked when a bar closes except during night hours or when circumstances cause a delay[/li][li] All trades are placed using pending orders and trades are triggered if/when the CBL entry line is reached by price. The CBL is always used for entries.[/li][li] Risk per trade[/li]
[ol]
[li] On the Kelly demo the risk will be 20%[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] Since sufficient trading data does not exist this figure is based on a reasonably conservative estimate where a win rate of 60% is combined with an average reward of 1R[/li][li] When enough trading data exists the risk will be adjusted to reflect this[/li][/ol]
[li] Maximum simultaneous risk will be 20%[/li][/LIST]
[li] Stop loss is always used and it is placed a few pips beyond the high/low of the CBL formation[/li]
[ol]
[li] The stop loss is moved to break even at around 1R as circumstances allow[/li][/ol]
[li] Trades can be exited in three different ways:[/li]
[ol]
[li] By trailing the stop loss behind swing levels[/li][li] By exiting at a predetermined level[/li][li] By stop loss being hit[/li][/ol]
[li] Funds will not be added to the demo account at all[/li]
[ol]
[li] If/when the method is used for live trading funds will be added only after a profitable month when trades have been taken.[/li][/ol]
[li] Records:[/li]
[ol]
[li] All trades will be recorded in the online service MyFXBook[/li][/ol]
[li] During the weekend as well as every evening a detailed analysis is performed where the most promising pair is noted and placed on the Watchlist. The Watchlist may contain a maximum of one pair.[/li]
[ol]
[li] Every night the appropriate position size Pprimary is calculated for a 1 pip SL position for the instrument on the Watchlist. This is used for quickly calculating the correct position size during the next day:[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] Position size = Pprimary / n, where n is the number of pips in the desired SL[/li][/ol]
[li] The new Pprimary for a case scenario where the account suffers a hit SL trade will also be calculated[/li][/LIST]
[li] There are three different setups that are allowed for trading:[/li]
[ol]
[li] Retracements in a trend[/li][li] Retests of breakouts in trend direction[/li][li] Counter trend trades at very strong PPZ levels where price is likely to turn, such as the outer boundaries of a range zone[/li][/ol]
[li] Chart analysis will be based on:[/li]
[ol]
[li] Determination of trend or no trend[/li]
[LIST=1]
[li] If trend - strength and clarity[/li][li] If range - strength of range boundaries and determination of price behavior in the range[/li][/ol]
[li] Determination of higher time frame trend or range[/li][li] Placement of appropriate S/R lines[/li][li] Placement of appropriate trendlines[/li][/LIST]
[li] Only the very best setups will be chosen[/li][/LIST]
Well pretty much, only one trade that’s not at BE at a time.
In the interest of transparency I should mention that the CADJPY long stopped out for a loss today. Currently a new CBL has been set on CADJPY and the one on NZDJPY is still active.
Both of these will be deleted however due to the changes I making.
I’m starting with a blank record.
Quite an eventless day today in the markets, at least for my part.
Having looked over the charts tonight I find that NZDJPY is still the only pair that looks immediately interesting on my radar.
It is still holding above the 61.50 PPZ and it’s still in a potential retracement phase in a trend of HH and HL on the 4H. It’s not an A+ setup but it is good enough.
The order for a long at 62.50 still stands.
Still NZDJPY only pair of any real interest. Pending order has been moved. Now pending long at 62.02 with a SL at 61.02 to reflect current CBL.