Naked November tradelog (scalping)

I admit, I’m a total n00b when it comes to scalping – I’ve never tried it before. But a few weeks ago when I got a renewed interest in “fixing” my trading, I decided to purposely look for radical changes to what I had already been doing.

I never even considered scalping, because I assumed the following:
[ul][li]It would probably stress me out to be glued to the screen watching each tick. After all, this is what us swing-traders try so hard NOT to do to keep from getting emotionally involved;
[/li][li]My brain could not think and react quickly enough to jump in and out. This was mostly based on the extensive calculations it would take me to get in and out of swing trades (mostly figuring proper leverage, which I calculated based on the unique stop for each trade);
[/li][li]Brokers don’t like scalpers and might even prevent your success;[/ul]
[/li]
But after stumbling onto Pip-Siphon’s most excellent scalping wisdom thread, I became hooked and determined to give this an honest effort.

Things I really love about this trading style:
[ul][li]No heavy-duty analysis needed. Mostly I just take note of the upcoming news releases and then check for major trends in place. That’s it.
[/li][li]Oanda has a really nifty platform feature that lets you enter and exit trades with a single click of the mouse. Wow, this must be made for scalpers. No thinking required. No math brain cells needed at 4:30am LOL.
[/li][li]This style can be fit into a tight little box. I absolutely love this part!! I can wake up, do my trading, then turn off the computer and I don’t have any obligations or worries until the next time. This is NOT the case with swing trading EVER.
[/li][li]The repetitive nature of this style promotes mastery I think. I’m a firm believer in perfect practice makes a perfect trader. When you are constantly exposed to new trades, you can quickly build a repertoire of wisdom.[/ul]
[/li]
So first thing I did was jump in straight-away with Pip-Siphons method on a demo account. Wow, it was SO MUCH FUN. I can’t even tell you how thrilling it felt. Actually, I had to take a step back, because I felt like I should not be this elated about trading. Most experts recommend that you not be too elated, and not too upset either. It could mean that I don’t have a good control of emotion.

After several good experiences, I moved to a live account. From this point, I did not do so well. I think it really was a psychological impact. Watching money go “poof” faster than ever before was scary. At least in swing trading, you can turn off the screen and walk away knowing you are following your plan. But this method feels more like riding a rollercoaster in the dark with no seatbelt… you have to be able to react as a reflex without too much thinking. That is the skill I want to perfect.

So the next thing I did was go back and study pip-siphon’s wisdom a little more closely. It’s amazing how much more information you can pickup when you go back a second time. His thread is really filled with some good nuggets of wisdom. I highly recommend you go back through it yourself when you have time. I am a note-taker, so I took notes on the first read, and then more notes and tweaks on the second.

One of pip-siphons recommendations for someone trying to learn this style of trading is very very good I think. Here is what he said:

Another piece of advice for scalping I can give you…
Is to strip your charts of all indicators.
Bring up a 30sec chart, and a 1min chart.
Then try for a month to trade succesfully without indicators.
But with REAL money. ($50 in Oanda, trading 20units a trade)

When you can achieve between 0.1%-0.5% a day, then add whatever indicators you think will strengthen your edge. But NEVER rely on the indicators. Only use them for strengthening ideas/trades.

So that is exactly what I have done and it has been a TON OF FUN. I can really feel myself getting better. I still make mistakes, and I know where the problem points are. But what’s even SWEETER is that I am learning how to identify and FIX those problems.

I’m going to use this thread to journal in. If I can find enough discipline in my hectic schedule, I’d love to analyze my trading every single day. Because I do trade this every day for 1.5 to 2.5 hours on average (before my dayjob). This works out to 4:30am to 7am Eastern. Usually between 4:30 and 5 I am prepping for trading and saying my prayers, so the actual trading doesn’t start until 5-ish.

I’m also tracking my live account performance here.

Thanks for following…

Friday 11/5/10
Quick stats:
19 trades *
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 14 wins, 0 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 1 win, 4 losses
-4.0161% account change

*Note: for my purposes, I consider scaled trades to be essentially 1 trade with different leverage, since they are based on a single trade concept

Excellent thread so far dusktrader, ill be sure to be following along. :smiley:

Monday 11/8/10
Quick stats:
28 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 21 wins, 2 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 1 win, 4 losses
3.0335% account change

Tuesday 11/9/10
Quick stats:
19 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 4 wins, 8 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 4 wins, 3 losses
(interesting how this correlates with my chart comment of possibly misinterpreting the trend – could be that the trend was not clearly up or down on this day)
-2.5381% account change

Wednesday 11/10/10
Quick stats:
28 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 11 wins, 4 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 7 wins, 6 losses
0.9375% account change

I learned several important things today. One thing I learned is that my trade units are still too leveraged. I know this because when a multi-leg trade got scary, it used up way too much margin. Emotionally, I also switched from “business trader” mode to “hobby trader” mode and almost didn’t care at one point if the account would blow up. Those are two strong indications, in my mind, that the leverage is too high. I will immediately cut leverage in half beginning tomorrow. My goal is for consistency and not thrills. If I don’t treat this like a serious business then it never will become one.

dusktrader,

Sorry for posting on your thread again, but those charts are from OANDA correct? If so where did you get the pop ups that show 5:30 news release? Thanks

Hey crashtriple, it’s no problem at all if you want to comment on this thread.

The news thing is just an overlay graphic I added in my chart journal. I get that from Forex Factory’s calendar. I usually only pay attention to the red ones. I like to include them on my chart journal so in retrospect I can see what the fundamental climate might have been during my trading session.

(I wish it was more automatic than that, but it’s not)

PS: yep I use Oanda

Thursday 11/11/10
Quick stats:
39 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 20 wins, 2 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 14 wins, 2 losses
0.7600% account change

Beginning today, I’ve also cut my units in half and also increased account equity 5x to $50. My hope is that this will help keep emotions better in check.

(Note: I did not trade Friday 11/12)

Monday 11/15/10
Quick stats:
11 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 7 wins, 0 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 0 wins, 4 losses
0.3374% account change

There is something to be gleaned from each trading session. I believe in serendipity. You should never look at your trading as a failure, or a waste of time. Sometimes you just have to keep looking until you find the gem. There is always a gem of wisdom, but sometime’s it’s buried, and sometimes you have to “sleep on it” before you can really see it good.

One thought I just had after studying today’s charts… I wonder what effect trading against the (pre-defined) predominant trend has. I am going to review quickly and add this to my Quick Stats.

Looks promising. :slight_smile:

When I saw your thread this pic came to my mind:

LOL… I do trade in my underwear most days, because I’m up at the crack of dawn. I usually wrap up in a nice fuzzy blanket and I always wear socks. I’ve got the heat turned down to 64 during the night so I can save more pennies for my trading stake LOL.

Tuesday 11/16/10
Quick stats:
19 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 19 wins, 0 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.0089% account change

Wednesday 11/17/10
Quick stats:
20 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: down
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 18 wins, 2 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.1555% account change

Thursday 11/18/10
Quick stats:
16 trades
Predominant 15min trend was: up
Trades with predominant 15min trend: 16 wins, 0 losses
Trades against predominant 15min trend: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.2004% account change

While the account change is inline with what I’m looking for, I do not feel that I did a very good job trading today. I am still recovering from a nasty cold. But moreso, I think the predominant trend is questionable at this time. The 1hour trend seemed to be down (possible trendline break) but the 15min trend seemed up. I’m attaching chartshot of the 15min trend. I think the theory of taking trades only with the predominant trend has worked well. What I’m not 100% sure about is if that trend should be from the 15min chart, or perhaps something smaller like the 5min chart?? In any case, the volatility was higher and there was definitely upward pressure. Spreads were generally higher today on Oanda.

pic of the 15min trend when I started

Friday 11/19/10
Quick stats:
3 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 3 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.5879% account change

Firstly, I’ve decided that the 15min trend should not be taken at face value. If you look at the first chartshot below, you can see that it is clearly in an uptrend. However, I don’t want to be so rigid that I can’t use discretion to protect my trading. So I’ve decided to start calling this a “trend bias” based on the 15min trend. In this chartshot, it’s pretty evident to me that the likelihood as of 4:30am is for a move down, at least in the shortterm that would affect the 30sec charts that I trade on. This seems more responsible than blindly restricting myself to longs-only “just because” the 15min trend is technically up. I think I’ve made the right decision with this thought. What I’m still not 100% convinced on is whether I should be looking at the 15min trend or 5min trend (with regard to the shortterm 30sec movement).

Overall I am not happy with today at all. I am still sick but that is no excuse. If I make it to 7pm tonight without ibuprofen, it will be the first 24hour in several days (I think the fever has finally broken).

The reason I’m unhappy is because today’s trading felt extremely uncomfortable. You can see from the stats – only 3 trade ideas could be executed. There should have been closer to 20 for a scalping method. That means I got stuck into some stacked trades that really tied my hands. (Sidenote: I actually considered the idea of having a separate Oanda subaccount that I could scalp in also, while waiting out these stacked trades – has anyone ever done that before? It’s really frustrating to see lots and lots of trade possibilities in the ranging conditions like that upper yellow 15min trendline, but be unable to take advantage of them.)

Probably, I should have decided to not trade at all today after seeing Bernanke on the radar last night. Even worse, I continued trading after it became obvious that volatility had gone crazy. That lack of discipline will really hurt me if I don’t get it under control. For this reason, I consider today’s trades to be extremely bad form.

dusktrader,

What is your allowable drawn down; you’re cut off point for scaled trades? Some of those scaled trades in look very steep. Also what are your position sizes since you said you changed it up a little?

Scaling:

I have decided to start scaling again as I do agree it is a huge portion of this method. But I have changed it a little that maybe you would be interested in to accommodate for the missing out on trades.

Basically what I do is consider each scale in its own trade, in a sense. Meaning, say I am on my 3rd scale in, I am still using a scaled larger position but I maintain my trading rules if that position moves about 3-5 pips in my direction I close that trade individually. Then if the market decides to go back to exactly where the original 3rd scale in was placed I simply jump back in and I am now back exactly where I was but I also “banked” 3-5 pips while inside of my scaled position. And those pips are the ones that add up because of the larger position size I have on

This has worked well so far because as you have notice you could easily make 5-10 trades sometimes but are stuck in a scaled position. Also what is nice is that if the scaled position reaches my hard stop of 1.5% draw down I close out BUT I may have made .25-1% in gains during.

Hi crashtriple,
I do not have a plan for dealing with scaled trades right now. I know I need to fix that. Rather than a hard stop level, I strongly prefer to train myself to have intuition to know when to just take a loss. For example, I’ve tried to note on my chartshots the few cases that some of these extreme scaled trades have occurred – usually there is an early indication that I should not keep scaling. If I could just recognize that in realtime, I could work on having conviction to take the loss. The problem is that this situation occurs so infrequently that I don’t have very much practice. (Over 400 trades (technically) in November so far and I’d say this situation has come up only a handful of times at most.)

I really hate hard stops. In fact when that emergency stop hit this morning, it really pissed me off because I was definitely not wanting to get out of the market at that point. I feel like in some ways I “revenge traded” to compensate for that, which I know is wrong. But I was targeting a logical level so at least I had a plan. Still, this could not be called scalping when I’m needing huge amounts of pips like that.

I think I understand what you’re saying about treating scaled trades separately. I actually tried to do this initially, but then got burned by the FIFO rules. I guess if you “keep up with it” then you could conceivably make that work. But I’m such a visual person – I prefer to trade entirely by the chart and minimize numbers and calculations. With FIFO, if you have a 5-legged trade and you want to close the 5th leg because it became profitable, for example… closing that will actually close the first trade. This seems to screw up the Oanda average position line, unless I am mis-interpreting this. :frowning: I rely heavily on that avg position line to know where to get out. I basically determined the idea wasn’t possible.

(But, it would be possible, for example, to continue scalping in a sub-account while the scaled trade works itself out. In this way, I’d be gathering pips while just waiting for the bigger move. I think in this scenario I would not want to scale at all. I might try this sub-account thing next week.)

Oh, I forgot to address your question about position sizes. Yes I did cut it in half somewhere earlier on in this thread. The current position size for my $50 account is 125 units per trade leg. So if I scale into 2 additional legs then I would close it with 375 units.

The # of units I’m using is a little bit arbitrary (I’m not exactly sure how I arrived at that figure) but I do know that I can scale and scale and scale until I’m blue in the face and it doesn’t seem to make too big a dent in my available margin (so far anyway). It also doesn’t make me queasy at this level, so that was really important.

I’d like to have a way to optimize this a little better. One thing I’m planning to do with these chartshots is go back and calculate the actual in-trade drawdowns on these crazy scaled trades. If I knew how many cumulative pips that was, I could come up with a formula to limit my risk based on a known typical drawdown. I should be maximizing my units with this figure in mind, and to keep my risk objectives in check.

Right now my primary focus is consistency. I would like to prove that I can be consistently disciplined to take only good-form trades. I’d like to show that I can return a profit every single trading session. After that, I can start optimizing things and throwing more money at the trading plan.

I struggle with this as well… the best I can suggest and what I question myself over and over again is "Am I getting a good price within the trend?"
I ask myself that question a lot near the high end of the last couple hours’ price range and the low end of that price range.

Great thread!
Devour vitamins and get some sleep this week-end,
I have no doubt you will do amazing things next week!