Naked November tradelog (scalping)

[QUOTE=dusktrader;229752]I think I understand what you’re saying about treating scaled trades separately. I actually tried to do this initially, but then got burned by the FIFO rules. I guess if you “keep up with it” then you could conceivably make that work. But I’m such a visual person – I prefer to trade entirely by the chart and minimize numbers and calculations. With FIFO, if you have a 5-legged trade and you want to close the 5th leg because it became profitable, for example… closing that will actually close the first trade. This seems to screw up the Oanda average position line, unless I am mis-interpreting this. :frowning: I rely heavily on that avg position line to know where to get out. I basically determined the idea wasn’t possible.
QUOTE]

I’m am a little confused on this statement. When I am doing the scaling as I described, I will click on my last trade placed ( in the dialog box that displays P/L, Position Size, % P/L etc…) and it will bring up a ticket window. At this point I can do multiple things including closing that one specific trade buy hitting submit. Now if you try to close a trade buy using the one click entry feature then yes I do believe it will close out the first trade placed in comparison to the open trades that you have. Maybe your reffering to something else and i am not familuar with FIFO?

Ahhh… gotcha. Maybe you can do it that way then, I’ve never tried it. I don’t like to look at numbers when I’m scalping. Some are necessary evils but I don’t like to do math in my head. So I guess for that reason, I consider it “too much thinking” to dig up a specific trade leg and make that kind of adjustment. That’s also a lot of clicks of the mouse and/or keypad.

I’m not knocking your idea here, I think it could definitely be valid. I am searching for uber-simple though, and any type of math calculations mid-trade like this would push me over the edge I think. As it stands right now, I don’t do any math at all. For stacking and unstacking trades, I have a series of unit levels already jotted on my pad so I don’t even have to think about it.

Personally, my opinion is that the more we can eliminate the math, the more we can focus on the psychology of the movements.

PS: by FIFO I am referring to the First-In-First-Out new rules, which I thought could be why the platform always closes the first trade first (makes sense). I could be wrong on this…

PPS: I recently noticed something else about scaled trades. Frequently they are what I consider still “good form” / there is no reason to let the trade idea go sour. But… since I do get stuck in them longer than a simple 1-leg trade… then I should try to cover this opportunity loss with a higher-cranked profit. Pip-siphon alluded to something vaguely similar to this in one of his posts where he defended the stacked trades and said that he made his most money on these (I think, if I’m recalling correctly). If you think about it… a trade is stacked when it passes through a known resistance level to the next one. This is further winding-up and should eventually lead to an even more forceful snap-back. Additionally you are adding leverage with each leg stacked. So when it finally does snap back, I only need one or two pips beyond the average-position line to rack up a huge gain. I don’t target a specific $ or pip amount but I do look at it in retrospect and I’m happy to see that in most cases… all that time waiting through the legs… that I’ve managed to accumulate enough profit to more than justify the equivalent profit I would have made on individual scalps, had I not stacked during that period. Does that make sense?

Monday 11/22/10
Quick stats:
12 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 12 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.0546% account change

One thing I’ll have to decide this week is whether or not to attempt trading at all on Thursday or Friday morning. I’m leaning towards “definitely no” on Thursday. But possibly no Friday either. I got burned real bad a couple years ago trading during this highly illiquid time. But that was also a swing strategy so it was even more stupid. But I could already “feel” the lack of liquidity today so I’m leaning towards sitting out Thursday and Friday (I could call it “learning from past stupidity” LOL.) I know the market is illiquid because the Oanda spreads jumped more than usual today, ranging from the typical 0.9 up to about 1.7 at times. I don’t bother too much with the spreads as long as I’m still seeing logical moves. But sometimes when it’s really quiet you get giant candles and instantaneous jumps, which can be scary if you’re on the wrong side of the momentum. Today was actually pretty moderate in my opinion, and while there were some giant candles, they pretty reliably respected the downward bias I had already identified from the 15min chart.

Tuesday 11/23/10
Quick stats:
10 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 10 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.4163% account change

Today was a comfortable trading day, it actually felt really easy and predictable. It felt like I was rehearsing something I had already done many times before. What’s weird about that feeling is that I’m taking money from the market and it doesn’t seem like it should be this easy. I just sit back in my chair, chomp on my oatmeal cookie, and push a button. It’s weird. (I’m not used this this.)

Speaking of comfort: lately I’ve been having these UNcomfortable feelings about how I will know when the time is right. You know, that time when you finally can say “wow, this is really working – I think I’ll go take out a mortgage on the house and sell all my stuff so I can beef up my trading stake” – heehee, well I wouldn’t go that far, but still I wonder about this all the time. How do I know if I’ve practiced enough? How do I know if I’ve paid my tuition in full yet?

I took a step back though, on my commute to the dayjob. If I’m trading well and the unknown feels uncomfortable, then maybe that is not necessarily a bad thing. What if the moment I get “comfortable” with things, I start to slack off? What if I get c-ocky and start doing things that never happened during my trading exercises? What if this is the reason for the so-called “beginner’s luck”? It does seem possible that things may never feel perfect. That I must always remain vigilant yet humble towards the market. Trading is fun and challenging and playful and stress-reducing. It is a lot of things. But at the end of the day, it is a business, one that is critically important to big-picture dreams and ideals. So I want to always keep that in perspective. Maybe there will never be an “aha” moment where I say “NOW I’m ready to go balls to the wall.”

Wednesday 11/24/10 (day before Thanksgiving)
Quick stats:
12 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 12 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
2.2418% account change

Today I’ve got big problems. This is REALLY disturbing. I am so upset with myself. I probably shouldn’t have traded today anyway, given the holiday week, but that’s no excuse really. The fact is that I DID trade, and for what it was worth – the market itself wasn’t really that crazy acting. What is crazy, though, is when the trader can’t make a decision to take a loss. The problem with this trading style is that I don’t ever have to take a loss. That means I never have to face the uncomfortable situations. That’s not really normal, and I need to fix it before my account blows up.

So starting Monday, I’m changing this style. I want to think it through over the long weekend a little better. But I think I might start trading naked without allowing any scaling at all. This exercise should force me to learn how to take a loss. The scaling is nice and all, but if I do not sharpen my skills with loss-taking, then I will not be doing myself any good service in the long run. It doesn’t do me any good at all to win win win and then blow up in a single trading session. I’ve got to start taking losses left and right so I know how to take them smartly. I need practice. I’m not sure yet what condition should tell me when it’s time to take a loss, but I’m gonna try to figure it out.

PS: Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Monday 11/29/10
Quick stats:
33 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 14 wins, 6 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 7 wins, 6 losses
0.5392% account change

Today was an interesting exercise. I think I’ll repeat it for several more days, at least until I get some traction and figure things out a little better. My goal here is to “get comfortable” with taking losses. Psychologically, I’m very adverse to taking losses. This is really a fault in my view, because if I never learn how to take a loss gracefully, then that means there could come a situation where I refuse to stop scaling (for example) and let the entire account blow up because of the phenomenon where “I must be right” in my trade analysis. The great thing about today is that I felt that I was exercising that brain muscle that lets me close a trade idea and then immediately re-open another one. A stop-and-(immediate)-reverse action would be an example of this. Trading on the 30sec chart, I have to be able to get in and out of trades extremely fast without looking back.

My goal is to learn the market rhythm a little better, and be able take more wins than losses. If I can maintain that with ANY degree of consistency, I think I’ll have a real sustainable plan here. Because without scaling, I can crank the leverage way up by gearing it to my known loss pips. Right now I have an extremely low leverage setting (my opinion) based on the intention to scale. If scaling did not exist, or if it was at least severely restrained, then I could take far more leverage per trade.

I think this exercise will help promote mastery because I want to be able to trade successfully without any scaling. Scaling skews results and can make your trading style look better than it really may be. It does me no good to grow the account quickly and then in a single trade or string of bad trades blow the entire account. But I think there could be a place for responsible scaling. That should probably be an advanced technique that I use only after mastering this timeframe without any scaling at all.

Tuesday 11/30/10
Quick stats:
15 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 5 wins, 7 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 1 wins, 2 losses
-0.8581% account change

Wow today I am really in a funk. I don’t like the way I’m trading at all. It was a huge mental drain for me today. So much so, that I just quit one hour into the session. I’m not even going to spend the time doing analysis on the chart today because I don’t want to reinforce any of this. It felt completely haphazard and totally off my game.

I think what I would like to do is take a step back, go back to what I know has been working, and start again from there. I would like to go back to the foundations that I have built up thus far, and try to fix the parts that are broken.

So things that are working would be:

  1. method for drawing trendlines / I like this very much
  2. method of scalping 1-5 pips only, no extra large moves
  3. trading with the 15min trend bias only
  4. taking fade entries primarily on the major trendlines (mostly not the intermediaries)
  5. scaling into fades that do not work initially

Ok, so #5 is the big one. I know that I can scale successfully. What I need to “fix” though is knowing when to abandon ship. Right now there is not a definitive rule in my head that tells me to stop. One thing I want to do before the next trading session is take a look at some past journal entries and see what happens if I filter out some trades. For example, what if I limit myself to 3 scales max and then just jump ship? It could be that I take a big loss, but that the opportunity for new trades is enough to recover that loss in the same session. That is the kind of info I would like to find.

I just did a little hypothetical study to see what would happen if I never scaled more than 3 legs. I started the study on November 10th, which is when the method really began to take form (also note equity climb starts here on MyFXBook).

I update a spreadsheet everyday along with the chartshots. This is basically just the Oanda output of trade history, but I color-code them and keep track of a couple things. I went back on this spreadsheet and painstakingly calculated this scenario. So basically for any trade idea that went beyond 3 scaled legs, I did this:

  1. Canceled entire trade profit from the equity balance
  2. Calculated a loss based on a stop which would have been the 4th leg entry point
  3. Re-calculated the profit gain for that entire day

One really cool thing about this is that I’ve basically now defined a hard stop. In almost every case, the worst leg is down no more than about 15 pips. By having this hard stop value in place (assuming I were going to begin trading with this rule), I could now re-figure trade leverage based on a known stop. My guess is that this would allow me to trade a much higher leverage than I’m trading now, for my personal risk tolerance (ie, optimizing).

Here are the results of this mini-study. I may also go back and do the same study but with allowance for 4 scaling legs instead of 3.


           Gain with no    Gain when limiting   Max loss pips   Gain when limiting   Max loss pips
 Date    limit to scaling    to max 3 legs      3+ leg trades     to max 4 legs      4+ leg trades
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Nov 10       0.9375%            0.2359%            54.7              0.1411%            73.9
 Nov 11       0.7600%            0.7274%            27.9              0.7600%             n/a
 Nov 15       0.3374%           -0.0014%            24.7             -0.0428%            55.9
 Nov 16       1.0089%            0.8147%            19.9              0.7241%            28.0
 Nov 17       1.1555%            1.2260%            19.7              1.2173%            27.3
 Nov 18       1.2004%            0.8539%            28.0              0.8453%            35.6
 Nov 19       1.5879%           -0.0895%            30.6             -0.0057%            53.0
 Nov 22       1.0546%            0.6369%            22.4              1.0546%             n/a
 Nov 23       1.4163%            1.4163%             n/a              1.4163%             n/a
 Nov 24       2.2418%            0.7509%            10.4              0.7384%            22.0
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         sum 11.7003         sum 6.5711         avg 26.5          sum 6.8486         avg 42.2

I like where this logic is going. Basically I’m trying to constrain the overall risk, but hopefully without too much impact to the core trading method.

PS: one other thing I forgot to point out here. The daily gain figures “should” be somewhat conservative for the simple fact that I am unable to calculate the opportunity loss in place of the canceled trade. On the spreadsheet, I’m only able to cancel a trade. In reality, I would immediately be available to continue trading after closing the scaled trade, so in real life there should be more trades and more profits.

EDITS:
I updated the chart and corrected a few errors and added the other scenario where I would cancel trades if they failed to turn a profit after 4 legs (stop at entry of 5th leg). This is very interesting to me:

The gain on the max-4-legs scenario is marginally better than the max-3-leg scenario, but the risk is much higher. The average max-loss-pips represents the highest cumulative loss for that day on a single multi-leg trade idea. So this figure is what I will use to base my trade leverage on.

You can see that by constraining myself to a max-3-leg scenario, I’m nearly cutting the profit potential in half. But I actually like this plan, because it sets a hard limit on losses as well. I would rather make consistently “less” but have a known loss limiter like this. Also, for what it’s worth… the trade leverage/units I’m using now should be considered irrelevant because I just invented them. They need to be based on something that is actually relevant, such as the max loss pips… that way I can make sure I am not under-leveraged for my risk tolerance. I will work on this more and possibly make an adjustment starting tomorrow.

Wednesday 12/1/10
Quick stats:
7 trades
15min trend bias: down (questionable, maybe I interpreted this wrong)
Trades with 15min trend bias: 6 wins, 1 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
-0.1983% account change

I implemented a new rule today based on the mini-study above. I’m putting a hard limit on scaling to a max of 3 legs. If the trade continues moving against me, I’ll plan to close it at about the point where I would have taken a 4th leg (with a little cushion). I’ve calculated the cumulative loss pips on this and felt that I could reasonably double my units under this scenario. Actually I think I can add about 2.8 times more leverage, but I’m trying to be conservative and see how this works first. The first trade here was a loss, unfortunately, but the remaining trades are all very meaty. Looks like if the first trade didn’t exist, the account gain would have been about 2%. Another observation is that there were only 7 trades which is less than typical (I average about 10 per hour). So this seems promising. I’m not passing judgment on this until I get a few days under my belt with good execution.

Thursday 12/2/10
Quick stats:
12 trades
15min trend bias: up, but then changed to down after bouncing off 3hour trendline
Trades with 15min trend bias: 12 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
2.1138% account change

I did something today that I haven’t done before: I changed my trend bias mid-stream based on discretion of an upcoming 3hour trendline. I think this was the right choice to make. Price action tends to magnetize towards strong trendlines, and then once pierced, it will either burst forward or bounce back. My gut feeling was that we’d at least get some intermediary bounce action before it really makes up its mind (and that will provide plenty of action on the 30sec level for today and possibly days to come).

This is the 3hour view: sorry for all the trendlines, but I don’t normally look at this view for very long. When I do look, I’m looking for clues like these. (Before I started trading, price had not quite reached the orange trendline near 1.3200)

Friday 12/3/10
Quick stats:
9 trades
15min trend bias: up
Trades with 15min trend bias: 9 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.6808% account change

Wish I could have taken more trades. I do love those scale trades, except when they get me hogtied like today. But frequently I find myself in a position where I’m excited for the market to move up or down… if it moves up to the next level, I’m excited to take the profit. If it moves down to the next level, I’m excited to get into another leg.

Wanted to also point something out that I noticed today about the trend bias. I make an educated guess about this by looking at the 15min (and sometimes also the 1hour) trendline. When I start trading on the 30sec chart, one thing that gives me a lot of confidence is seeing a series of forceful candles in my bias direction. For example I saw that today… price tiptoes downward in a meandering fashion, but then there are repeated forceful up moves. This confirms to me that the bias is up.

Monday 12/6/10
Quick stats:
12 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 12 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
2.9059% account change

Without a doubt, the most important time I invest in this trading method would be the 15-20 minutes I spend each morning before I take the first trade. During this time, I am looking at the Daily, 3hour, 1hour and 15min timeframes. I’m making a discretionary decision about what the trend bias is, and as I’ve mentioned, I usually base this decision on the 15min trend. I have a whole system of trendline drawing that I’ve developed that is crucial to me during the trading session. In an instant, I need to know what trendlines are important in relation to realtime price action, and how strong they might be. I want to share this method I’ve come up with so I’m planning to figure out the best way to do a screencast soon.

Tuesday 12/7/10
Quick stats:
4 trades
15min trend bias: up
Trades with 15min trend bias: 4 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
1.5049% account change

Spreads were generally higher on Oanda this morning, about 1.3. They have been higher since around Thanksgiving, but usually not this high consistently. I guess that means the liquidity is lower today. That also aligns with the volatility I observed, which was downright boring. I only got 4 good setups today, but the last one ate up all my time due to getting stuck in a scaling situation.

BUT, on a positive note… I will say that I felt very comfortable in this scale position. On one hand, I feel the urge to keep scaling in at new levels, but on the other hand, I can really see how stopping the scaling helps my risk. When I zoom out the chart, I can see that I’m in the middle of larger trends, and possibly downward as of the scaled trade. But with the lower leverage of a max-3-leg trade, I can afford to ride it down much further. So far seems like this plan is working.

One idea I just had this morning while I was sitting there munching on carrots… I should go back through my journal and see if I can determine hypothetical trades I might’ve taken had I exited these scale trades sooner. The jury is still out on which makes more sense, at least in my mind. The advantage of the scale trades (usually) is that I can lean on my swing-trading background to just convert the trade-in-progress to a larger timeframe. Sometimes it looks scary on the 30sec chart (ie, how much more price needs to move back to become profitable) but when I look at the larger timeframes, I can see that it’s really just a normal-looking move within a larger channel.

Dusktrader,

I’ve notice you have cut back on your scaling to only 3 or 4 legs, what i am still confused on is how long are you willing to let those legs ride? On monday it looks as if you were -50 some pips on 3 legs, if i read your chart right. What was your draw down on that and what are your postion sizes 125 units correct? And what if it would have just kept climbing where would you have closed out? Thanks and good luck.

Hi crashtriple,
yep you’re right – as of last Wednesday I changed one of my trading rules to allow only 3 legs max. I am still testing this theory to see how well it works. In my early analysis (posted somewhere around last Tuesday), it seems that 3 legs can be profitable and adding a 4th leg only increases risk while marginal gain. I will re-evaluate this again once I get more trades under my belt to see if it still makes sense.

As far as a stop, I still struggle with this. I am currently taking it on a case-by-case basis. I do not have a “hard stop” in mind ahead of time. However, when I do get stuck in a scaled trade near the end of my trading window (7am ET), I have no choice but to determine a hard stop and target (I put in limit orders).

I prefer to use logical levels rather than some arbitrary figure like 100 pips. As long as the logical level is within my risk tolerance, I don’t see this as a problem. Today at the worst case the drawdown was about 3%. The level at around 5% drawdown was below the major daily trendline shown on my chart (and then some). I felt that this was a reasonable stop level so I used that (the exact stop I set was 1.33440). Keep in mind that I DO NOT anticipate or plan for the stop to be hit. But, assuming my trade idea is totally wrong, I also don’t want to be underwater for too long. I felt that I could recover from a 5% hit pretty quickly and had already become psychologically “happy” with either outcome while I was in the shower at 7am. I knew if my logical target hit I would have a nice profit, and that this was the likely outcome. I also knew that in the worst case scenario, I would be looking at a 5% loss, which I can stomach.

There have been drawdown periods worse than this, but I’m unsure since I started the max-3-leg rule. I think I would not let it go down more than about 5% (and probably not even that far – again, looking for a logical level to tell me “you’re just wrong”)

I’ll fully admit, I have a hard time taking losses. I see no reason to do this if there is a way I can wiggle out of them. I don’t want to be stupid about it, but I don’t like the idea of automatic mechanical losses.

(Keep in mind I’m a n00b so I may not have a clue what’s really best.)

PS: my position sizes have been 250 units per leg. Just today I boosted that to 300. I will keep it at 300 for awhile now, unless there is a hiccup bringing the account equity down.

hi dusktrader

a great thread, congrats.
i am also a scalper mainly, and i think our methods has plenty similarity, but few differences too.
i would want to suggest you something that might be a useful point to work out from: some positions of yours the scaling seem to be not too logical, especially after the spread considered. while it might be good solution to limit the legs, i would suggest to try some different method to restrict the numbers, namely limit the distance to a min between 2 legs, ie 3-5 pips…one of the best example i can mention is your nov 25th post ( if i am correct), where you had a scaling in with no less than 12 legs? while leg 2-5 was all within a bare 5 pips distance, for example, a waste of margin, since the possible outcome or your probabilities didnt move at all.
not to interphere at all, you had great way of trading, just thought you might consider.
another thing might help a bit to confirm your trend bias with some indicator, in that i am the fun of RSI. in itself RSI might be not somthing you would consider on a smaller TF, but when you add it to your 15 min trend chart, you can decide better the times when disregard the trend: the times when RSI shows an extreme reading on the 15 min…ie a uptrend move is getting too overbought for example, might be wiser to get ready for some choppiness, or fade the prior trend.
and a last thought: even though your spread is small, when there is little move on the market, might consider to stay on the sideline, dont try to scalp out 1-2 pips from a total 3-5 pips sideways move. those gonna be the luck trades, not your high probability entries, for sure. since you mentioned you are not in for the thrill.

anyway,once again, a great thread, congrats! :slight_smile:
hope you dont mind that i added a few thoughts, since we trade somewhat similar way.

Wednesday 12/8/10
Quick stats:
5 trades
15min trend bias: down
Trades with 15min trend bias: 5 wins, 0 losses
Trades against 15min trend bias: 0 wins, 0 losses
0.9662% account change

Overall this was not one of my favorite trading days. It’s never a good day when you catch yourself taking bad-form trades.

Hi tingtong, welcome to my journal. Thanks for your comments and ideas, they are really appreciated.

I think the day you are referring to is 11/24, the day before US Thanksgiving holiday (a very light liquidity day – in retrospect I should not have traded at all). I will tell you also that after that experience with the 12-legged monster, I vowed never to do that again and as you can see in the following days, there were some hiccups as I tried to find a compromise (that’s partly where I came up with the idea to limit legs to 3).

You make some very good points about the minimum distance between legs. I too have noticed that and have been trying to be more relaxed. On my charts, the dotted green trendlines are what I call “intermediary levels” that price likes to “hang out” at. My guess is that with many brokers, this is “between the spread.” On Oanda I have some advantage with such low spreads so I can trade off them from time to time. However, the primary logical levels are the non-green lines, usually white and purple. The reason I’m mentioning this is because the typical distance from a white/purple to a green is about 5 pips. When I draw the 1min and 30sec trendlines, I am careful to ensure that I am looking at levels yielding roughly 10 pips. This allows me to visually gauge pips without having to look at numbers (remember I am not a numbers person, I can’t trade that way). So my preference would be to scale new legs at every 2 levels (~10 pips), although I can’t say I always follow this guideline (I’m working on it). I do also make an exception – if the level is major, such as a pink 1hour or orange 3hour trendline, then I will usually always scale at that level regardless.

not to interphere at all, you had great way of trading, just thought you might consider.

Thank you – I welcome all your criticism and ideas. It’s great to find others who trade similar to this style. For me it is a work-in-progress. I’m not sure what it will turn into but my hope is that it becomes consistent and safe (ie low risk).

another thing might help a bit to confirm your trend bias with some indicator, in that i am the fun of RSI. in itself RSI might be not somthing you would consider on a smaller TF, but when you add it to your 15 min trend chart, you can decide better the times when disregard the trend: the times when RSI shows an extreme reading on the 15 min…ie a uptrend move is getting too overbought for example, might be wiser to get ready for some choppiness, or fade the prior trend.

This is a very good idea and I will play around with it. I think the discretionary decision about trend bias is one of the single-most-important decisions of the entire day for me, especially since I restrict my trading to only that direction. It could be the single factor that determines if I have a good day or bad, a real edge or just a wash.

The problem is, I’m not very good at indicators. I know of RSI but I actually do not know how to work it at all. I will do some research on this and see what “they” say about it. But I tend to be very negative towards indicators. In all my past trading lives, it’s always been the indicators that got in the way. I’m really on the fence about using some magical number to tell me what the trend is and I believe my brain could outsmart that anyway. (But I will still look into the idea.)

and a last thought: even though your spread is small, when there is little move on the market, might consider to stay on the sideline, dont try to scalp out 1-2 pips from a total 3-5 pips sideways move. those gonna be the luck trades, not your high probability entries, for sure. since you mentioned you are not in for the thrill.

I’ve heard people complain loudly about the spread. Some threads about scalping say anything higher than Oanda’s 0.9 is unacceptable and maybe you should go to an ECN broker… blah blah blah. So far I have traded everything from 0.9 all the way up to the max sustained I’ve seen at about 1.3. I’m still not sure that it really matters to me. I don’t get upset about the spread because there is nothing I can do about it. Oanda tells me the avg position line immediately upon trade entry, so I know visually where I’m in profit. I’m always looking for a logical level to take profits, so if I’m still seeing those, I’m happy. I guess I’m just not buying the argument that spread makes that big of a difference in overall trading, even at the 30sec timeframe. The way I see it… higher spreads, yeah they suck, and they probably bring down the total day gains. But I’d rather trade if there are good setups than not trade at all.

With that said, if I see sustained spreads of too much higher (say 1.5+), then I would use that as an indication of extreme low liquidity, and probably stay out of the market for that reason alone.

anyway,once again, a great thread, congrats! :slight_smile:
hope you dont mind that i added a few thoughts, since we trade somewhat similar way.

Thanks again!

dusktrader,

Can you explain how you draw the purple and green lines. I’m just confused on the method and reason behind them and how you determine them every trading session. Thanks.

Ok, I’ll take my best shot at explaining, but you might be better served by waiting for the screencast I’m planning to make soon. Next week they’re going to remove my wisdom teeth and I’m told I’ll be laid-up for 4 days. (Read: woohoo! more time to feed my trading addiction) Anyway, I’ll probably assemble the video at that time.

Ok, so I already explained above that the first step in my prep for the day (from about 4:40am - 5am ET) is to make a determination on the trend bias, and also draw all the trendlines.

To save my sanity, I do a Save Profile in my Oanda account to permanently save the drawn trendlines for Daily, 3hour, 1hour and 15min. I can then add onto these as needed and re-save the profile from day to day.

For the trendlines on 1min and 30sec, I have a philosophy that these must be drawn from scratch every day so I always start with a clean slate. The market changes from day to day, especially at these short timeframes. As such, I do not want my thinking to be skewed by something that happened so long ago. Also, over time I get better at things like trendline-drawing so I think it’s refreshing to draw them clean every morning. For me drawing trendlines is very fun.

I draw trendlines for all timeframes the same way. I have come up with a system that is meaningful to me. The goal I was trying to achieve in all this was that I would be able to maximize the amount of information that could be perceived by looking at a single chart window, rather than having to move frantically between timeframe windows during crunchtime. Also, I only have a very modest computer setup and 1 screen for now, so that forces me to be as efficient as I can. I typically trade with only the 30sec window open, but a “peeking view” of the 1min view behind that.

So the rules of my trendlines are as follows:
Red: Daily
Orange: 3hour
Pink: 1hour
Yellow: 15min
White: 1min
Purple: 30sec
(Green): intermediary only, I’ll explain below

solid thicks: a very strong trendline, usually Daily or 3hour
solid: a trendline that has not yet been violated
dashed: a trendline that has been violated (price been through it before)
dotted: a trendline projection of where I think price will stop

The procedure I use is this:
At the current timeframe, draw the first trendline. You have to start somewhere. I like to have fun with this, play around. I draw a trendline that looks meaningful and then look for confirmation. Usually I am looking for at least 2 touches at the level I’m drawing.

Once the first trendline is drawn, I duplicate it (in Oanda it’s called Duplicate, an identical line is created for you) and then slide it across the chart to find another place that it fits. It should fit like a glove. If it doesn’t fit a previous or future price action, then the first trendline was wrong and you need to start over. This is critical. I have become pretty comfortable with trendline drawing now and I usually get the first one right, and then can immediately confirm it after the first duplication to another level.

Once you’ve established the first 2 trendline levels, the rest is cake. Unfocus your eyes slightly and look at the distance between those two identical trendlines. Then duplicate again and place another trendline equidistant on the chart. You should find that it lines up nearly perfectly. If not, you may need to start over. After I draw all the lines in one direction, I go back and look for an alternate trend in the other direction and do the same exercise. This will result in a grid pattern across the chart. It’s amazing to me that the market respects these price levels in such a geometric way, but it does. On some RARE occasions I have drawn an additional trendline at a non-equidistant spacing if I see a strong magnetism at a particular level (because I don’t want to disregard that magnetism).

Generally speaking, after I’ve drawn all the (usually dashed) trendlines across the visible price action, I will draw at least 2 additional projection lines using the same equidistance technique I described. Since these are only projections, I make them dotted so in realtime I know they are untested levels. During trading, I am constantly “graduating” dotted trendlines to dashed trendlines and then adding more dotted projections, as price wiggles around.

One thing that I have learned through this… the levels and grids are fractal in nature. Meaning… that they continue on forever. At each smaller timeframe, the same grid exists in a different dimension. So keep that in mind and avoid information overload. I like to create nice little grid boxes that are not too tight but not too spacey. It is a discretion to pick which levels are important at the timeframe you are currently drawing on. I have learned that on the 30sec timeframe, I want to see grid spacing of about 10 pips per level. If it is much more than that, I need to focus more finely and draw more. If it is less than that, I need to look at price action and skip some of the swing levels.

Lastly, during trading, I like to draw the dotted green trendlines at the midpoint area between primary trendlines. As I’ve pointed out in some chartshots, the fractals and/or fib psychology is very evident and causes congestion at every 50% imaginable. Since the distance between levels on the 30sec chart is about 10 pips, I’ve found it helpful to have the dotted-green areas noted, because price FREQUENTLY takes a break at these levels. You can use that information to your benefit. I will sometimes take trade entries off a green level, but more likely I am looking at them as a scalp target area. Price almost always stops at the green dotted lines, so if it’s a nice scalp, I’m out.

After that I’m staring at the 30sec chart only for 99% of the trading session. All the information I need is there. I know if I see a dashed pink line, it’s a very strong and reliable resistance. If I see price activity across a solid thick red or orange line, then I know it’s crossed a major boundary and trend bias change may be imminent. In any case, the information is very rich and I love having it all right at my fingertips without the chaos of flipping charts or scanning multiple monitors.

Hope this helps. I will try to explain this better on the screencast once I get it done. :slight_smile: