No one can predict the future for more than 50% of times

[Dollar_McGavin]

@AryaStarky

You’re correct that stock markets have a long-term upward bias, but it’s not only because of inflation or central banks targeting 2%. It’s also the real economic growth, innovation, reinvested earnings etc. If it were just inflation, stocks would only rise at the same rate as CPI, but historically their real return (after inflation) has been significant.

I never said that the upward bias in stocks was due to “inflation”, I said that upward bias is due to the degradation of a currency’s purchasing power, which is caused by the expansion of the money supply (which in turn has its roots in the CB monetary policies).

I also never stated that it was only due to purchasing power degradation, only that this purchasing power degradation is continuously occurring, independent of economic cycles due to the make up of the EuroDollar / global monetary & banking system.

BTW, CPI is not the same thing as “inflation”.

@AryaStarky

Thank you for partly answering my question! At last, someone who didn’t attribute profitability to risk management. Bravo! Only partly though…

Actually, I answered your question fully, maybe not in the way you expected it though.

My brain is wired for analysis (my strength), unfortunately it means that I struggle with effective communication, especially on an internet forum, but hopefully my answer here will be clear enough.

Your question was:

@AryaStarky

but yet, we do see some profitable forex traders.
So how do they do it?

I am a full time professional trader and this is how I do it:

@Dollar_McGavin

The trick is to do nothing and wait until there are telltale signs that a trend reversal has begun, i.e. let the market tip its hand.

@Dollar_McGavin

I wasted a lot of time and effort trying finding a profitable strategy instead of developing my analytical and adaptation skills.

In other words, instead of focusing on a strategy, I analyze market movements, trends, conditions, intermarket correlations and more to align my position with where the market is headed (not where it’s at or where it’s been). Strategy doesn’t matter, even random coin flip entries can be profitable.

@AryaStarky

And I think you slightly overstated the 100%. The timing and depth of a reversal are never guaranteed.

No, I didn’t overstate the 100%, I stated virtually 100% guaranteed, there are of course outliers and exceptions like public companies going bankrupt. However especially with forex, you can have multiple pullbacks / corrections but eventually a trend will end and reverse.

Nothing in life is guaranteed but the timing and magnitude of a reversal can be forecasted with a high enough accuracy to be very profitable.

@AryaStarky

Some “reversals” are just short pullbacks before continuation, and distinguishing between a correction and a true reversal is close to impossible.

Please accept my apologies for being blunt here, I’m not trying to insult, but this is impossible for you.

My friend, I do this for a living and I (as well as other pros I know) can easily distinguish a pullback / correction from a reversal.

For those that are interested, here are 3 examples that I posted on this forum.

Example #1

This one I called out in real time and clearly show the difference between pullbacks / corrections (labeled LTF noise / “tiny oscillations”) and reversals. There are also follow up replies where I literally map out where I thought price was heading and follow up with where price actually went.

@Dollar_McGavin

Here’s an updated 4H chart, where I have the highs and lows clearly labeled as well as point out what are not highs / lows

The last thing I wrote in that thread was:

@Dollar_McGavin

I would now expect price to either make a lower 4H low below 1.1550 or to consolidate in a triangle pattern before turning up again.

And price made a new low on the 4H TF @ 1.13916 (below 1.1550), before turning up again

Example #2

How I Let Profits Run

This post is a continuation of my discussion with @MattyMoney about how “beautiful charts lead to beautiful trades”, i.e. better analysis and chart reading skills leads to more profitable trading. TL;DR: I struggled for a long time because I thought the key to letting profits run was having the right discipline & patience (trading psychology) after entering a trade. This was so wrong – the key to letting profits run starts with analysis and chart reading long before the initial trade entry. Th…

Example #3

I made this post April 10th, 2025

@Dollar_McGavin

This adds another layer of complexity. I’ll add this more detailed chart to illustrate.

Believe it or not, the chart above is a detailed look into the anatomy of a higher timescale trend reversal.

…

To me this has all the signs of an intermediate trend reversal with a 70% probability that price will hit the 200 level over 2 daily cycles (10 to 14 weeks).

And 18 weeks later (longer than the forecasted 10 to 14 weeks) on August 13th 2025, price tagged the 200 level