Not the "Holy Grail", But Consistent Easy Profits

[FXBrokerRatings]

It looks like a very simple yet effective strategy. What do you do for SLs however? Do you use them incase things turn against you?

One thing I have yet to learn is patience for these longer TFs.

I noticed on your second chart of the USDCHF, that you entered trades before 5 weeks of downtrend as you stated in your system rules. It was about 2 or 3 candles I believe on the weekly chart before a position was opened. Still profitable however what constitutes entering those trades as opposed to waiting for the next week or two? If you’d waited the move would have been over.

Good question, I should add that to the website also. Normally for a SL I look back a few weeks and figure out the average amount the instrument moves in a week and use 1 1/2 times that-Usually. Every instrument is different, so every SL is different depending on what I’m trading.

I have added two gray circles where I believe the trend starts on the two short trades. What happens often: there is an initial move, re-tracement, then a continuation of the initial move. In fact, it happened in all three trades on this chart. That is why I say to wait [B]atleast[/B] five weeks and again that changes per instrument, but is a good general starting point.

I dind’t put a gray circle in for the long position…where would you put it? Where do you think the trend starts?

[system]

I exited for a profit of about 1520 pips and was open for 30 weeks.

30 x 5 = 150 days

1520 pips / 150 days = [B]10.13 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

exited on the next up red arrow for about 1670 pips and was open for 17 weeks.

17 x 5 = 85 days

1670 pips / 85 days = [B]19.64 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

The next up red arrow is a buy that at this time is in an unrealized profit of about 1490 pips and has been open for 27 weeks.

27 x 5 = 135 days

1490 pips / 135 days = [B]11.09 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

The first trade took about 900 pips and was open 14 weeks,

14 x 5 = 90 days

900 pips / 90 days = [B]10 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

and the second trade took about 1155 pips and was open 20 weeks.

20 x 5 = 100 days

1155 pips / 100 days = [B]11.55 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

The current trade has an unrealized profit of 1060 pips and has been open 27 weeks.

27 x 5 = 135 days

1060 pips / 135 days = [B]7.85 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

Pretty nice.

Are you kidding me…?

With 24 hours continous risk exposure lasting weeks pulling 7 - 19 pips per day minus daily interest charged by broker.

Ever cared to look @daily average range of those pairs you traded…?

[xtraction]

CAS, very well presented.

[TalonD]

I was thinking that from the first post. newbies are often advised to trade higher time frames and for me it’s 1h but 1 week? that’s a lot of pips left on the table.

[system]

newbies are often advised to trade higher time frames

Whoever advises that to newbies isn’t telling the whole story.

You take your TF of choice.

You need to know what’s going on [B]at least[/B] 2 TF up from your chosen TF.

Smart people know what’s going on 2 TF below from your chosen TF as well.

So in fact you are trading up to 5 TF.

Real smart people know what’s going on with correlated pairs as well in their respective TF.

[TalonD]

Yep, I’ve noticed that, I’ve got g/u charts from 5 up to daily open all the time. Even though I’m forcing myself to stick mainly to 1H due to ‘headspace’ constraints as you call it.

And speaking of correlated pairs, I wanted to ask about E/U vs. G/U but don’t want to get this thread off track so… elsewhere…

[FXBrokerRatings]

CAS, You are right with your math and thank you for another perspective. I was using those SIMPLE examples because they offered a little of everything, that I look at, WHEN I LOOK for a trade. I look probably once a week. I got tired of sitting in front of my computer all day looking for trades and when I didn’t find any for a while, trying to make something happen and losing. Also, When I have up to twenty positions open, if I get into micromanaging them, I’ll lose my mind. I let them do what they want because they will, I just go along with the flow. I’m still making good money, and out living my life.

You mentioned interest. Sometimes you pay it and sometime you get paid it. I don’t factor it in when I trade the majors because the interest charged, or paid, is miniscule.

I gave simple examples with reverse correlated pairs, my bad. I just wanted the concept to be understood. Apperently my audience may be a little more advanced, but unfortunately my trading strategy isn’t so here’s another chart.

This is the current weekly GBP/NZD. The color coding and shapes are the same as above. The first trade profited about 2000 pips over about 20 weeks=20 pips per day + 3% rollover per day. The second trade was about another 2000 pips over 18 weeks=22 pips per day + 3% rollover (I don’t care to know how to figure the actual number related to pips) per day. Third trade another 2000 pips over 18 weeks ( there is a patten developing) 22 pips per day minus the 3% rollover. So cancel the rollover I gained in one of the previous trades and I’m still up on rollover. Trade 4. About 4000 pips in 25 weeks. 32 pips per day. Paid on the rollover.

[B]Time I looked at this position per week (5 min) x total weeks (81=1.5 years roughly) = 405 min / 60 = 6.75 hours of face time this instrument received in a year and a half. 10,000 pips in that 1 1/2 years or 6.75 hours face time. 10K/6.75= 1481.48 pips/hour of face time for that instrument and ahead in rollover. I’ll take it! Numbers are fun.[/B]

I’d say with all the positions I have open at any point in time probably take 2 hours of my time per week, instead of days and days like they did before.

Trade how you may… I’ve got things to do.

[xtraction]

Whoever advises that to newbies isn’t telling the whole story.

You take your TF of choice.

You need to know what’s going on [B]at least[/B] 2 TF up from your chosen TF.

Smart people know what’s going on 2 TF below from your chosen TF as well.

So in fact you are trading up to 5 TF.

Real smart people know what’s going on with correlated pairs as well in their respective TF.

Traders are fooled by charts based on different time frames. The 1 minute chart tells me the same thing as the daily chart and that is where price is relative to any previous point in time. All higher time frame charts do is compress more data into the same amount of space on your screen. What you really want to know is whether price is retreating from the highest point over a given span of time or moving toward it. Substitute lowest for highest if you like, it doesn’t matter.

[xtraction]

[B]Time I looked at this position per week (5 min) x total weeks (81=1.5 years roughly) = 405 min / 60 = 6.75 hours of face time this instrument received in a year and a half. 10,000 pips in that 1 1/2 years or 6.75 hours face time. 10K/6.75= 1481.48 pips/hour of face time for that instrument and ahead in rollover. I’ll take it! Numbers are fun.[/B]

I’d say with all the positions I have open at any point in time probably take 2 hours of my time per week, instead of days and days like they did before.

Trade how you may… I’ve got things to do.

Please post your next entry, as soon as possible, so it can be studied and tracked.

[FXBrokerRatings]

Please post your next entry, as soon as possible, so it can be studied and tracked.

I will do that, and that has been the plan, to start a log of what I am doing, that is one of the reasons I started this thread.

From the looks of it in a couple weeks it will be long on GBP/NZD. If something else comes up before then, I will post it.

From now on I will post my open and close, and every trade I open from this day will be updated (Start anew, Create a list of what is going on in my accountand update it with every open and close.) . It will be a good tool for me and everyone, see how many pips I can rack up this next year starting from today.

[aaron3719]

i take it you must have a pretty big account to do this right?

[system]

Traders are fooled by charts based on different time frames. The 1 minute chart tells me the same thing as the daily chart and that is where price is relative to any previous point in time. All higher time frame charts do is compress more data into the same amount of space on your screen. What you really want to know is whether price is retreating from the highest point over a given span of time or moving toward it. Substitute lowest for highest if you like, it doesn’t matter.

“Sunshine”, if you trade “Alive in Wonderland”…it’s your choice. Not my problem.

You have never in your life risked even 1 dollar in a live trade. If you had you wouldn’t post the nonsense you are posting on this board.

I have asked you once before how it feels in that box of yours…?

I am still waiting for an answer.

The lower the TF…especially 1m are nothing but noise. PA can motor down the chart on 5m, up the chart on 30m, down the chart on 4h and up the chart on 1d.

Taking your nonsense what you have posted as determinator for PA I would never be able to establish where price is actually heading.

As you have posted in another thread…out of your “Alive in Wonderland” trading world…rejecting all commonly excepted trading terms…that box you’re in must really be one hell of a box.

[Letseethepips]

Look forward to your entrys. Cas always liked that avatar and movie.Stephen Chow should have come out with a sequel before he gets to old.

[FXBrokerRatings]

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone… I’m still holding out on entering a buy on GBP/NZD. It is currently hovering around its lowest value ever (as far as I can tell, my chart only goes back to 1997). So I am keeping a close eye on it. For those out there that are gonna tell me that the lowest low means nothing, it can go lower, I know. But, I do believe it has reversed, 6 weeks ago and will continue to develop a bull trend. The next couple weeks will be the deal maker. Here’s a chart so you don’t have to look it up.

Happy Thanksgiving.

[aaron3719]

hey FXbroker, how has this strategy been working for you? is it satisfactory? what kind of lots are you using?

[FXBrokerRatings]

Just made the trade on GBP/NZD that I have been predicting would be the next one. Long @ 2.285720, SL starting at 2.265 and will eventually convert to a big TS once into profit a ways. Looking for a 2.55 TP in about 8-10 weeks but will, as always, play it by ear.

[ArmyDoc]

[QUOTE=cas;148398]30 x 5 = 150 days

1520 pips / 150 days = [B]10.13 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]This represents 35% annualized return[/B]

17 x 5 = 85 days

1670 pips / 85 days = [B]19.64 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]=79% annualized return[/B]

27 x 5 = 135 days

1490 pips / 135 days = [B]11.09 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]= 39% annualized return[/B]

14 x 5 = 90 days

900 pips / 90 days = [B]10 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]= 36% annualized return[/B]

20 x 5 = 100 days

1155 pips / 100 days = [B]11.55 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]= 42% annualized return[/B]

27 x 5 = 135 days

1060 pips / 135 days = [B]7.85 pips per day[/B] minus interest charged

[B]= 27% annualized return[/B]

[B]Are you kidding me…?[/B]

With 24 hours continous risk exposure lasting weeks pulling 7 - 19 pips per day minus daily interest charged by broker.

[B]Ever cared to look @daily average range of those pairs you traded…?[/[/B]QUOTE]

Actually, what FXbrokerrating is doing is very good performance.

Here’s the numbers:

Lowest profit: 1060 pips/135 days = 9.18% profit (assuming you were risking 2% of capital on this trade and used a stop loss of 230, (if you set SL at last lowest minima) 135 days= 37% of a year.

This means that his lowest return, on an annualized basis was 27%.

What about his other returns? Just see above.

Keep in mind you could open 20 such positions, thus providing massive profits.

[B]FXbrokerratings is averaging 42% annual returns with his system[/B]. On wall street anyone who can do that is considered a god and gets paid billions in bonuses. Note, the stock market has averaged 11% annual performance over the last 50 years, small caps about 13%.

Even with interest payments, the man is succesful beyond anything I have heard of. I will certainly try this long term approach as it seems the easiest to do both in terms of daily quality of life, and has proven insanely profitable for him.

Thanks fxbrokersratings, you are an inspiration to us all.

[ArmyDoc]

CAS, You are right with your math and thank you for another perspective. I was using those SIMPLE examples because they offered a little of everything, that I look at, WHEN I LOOK for a trade. I look probably once a week. I got tired of sitting in front of my computer all day looking for trades and when I didn’t find any for a while, trying to make something happen and losing. Also, When I have up to twenty positions open, if I get into micromanaging them, I’ll lose my mind. I let them do what they want because they will, I just go along with the flow. I’m still making good money, and out living my life.

You mentioned interest. Sometimes you pay it and sometime you get paid it. I don’t factor it in when I trade the majors because the interest charged, or paid, is miniscule.

I gave simple examples with reverse correlated pairs, my bad. I just wanted the concept to be understood. Apperently my audience may be a little more advanced, but unfortunately my trading strategy isn’t so here’s another chart.

This is the current weekly GBP/NZD. The color coding and shapes are the same as above. The first trade profited about 2000 pips over about 20 weeks=20 pips per day + 3% rollover per day. The second trade was about another 2000 pips over 18 weeks=22 pips per day + 3% rollover (I don’t care to know how to figure the actual number related to pips) per day. Third trade another 2000 pips over 18 weeks ( there is a patten developing) 22 pips per day minus the 3% rollover. So cancel the rollover I gained in one of the previous trades and I’m still up on rollover. Trade 4. About 4000 pips in 25 weeks. 32 pips per day. Paid on the rollover.

[B]Time I looked at this position per week (5 min) x total weeks (81=1.5 years roughly) = 405 min / 60 = 6.75 hours of face time this instrument received in a year and a half. [B]10,000 pips in that 1 1/2 years [/B]or 6.75 hours face time. 10K/6.75= 1481.48 pips/hour of face time for that instrument and ahead in rollover. I’ll take it! Numbers are fun.[/B]

I’d say with all the positions I have open at any point in time probably take 2 hours of my time per week, instead of days and days like they did before.

Trade how you may… I’ve got things to do.

I just ran the numbers through Oanda and calculated the annualized returns of 10,000 pip profit over 1.5 years, (to see how much money I would make if I managed those profits).

Assuming you use large SLs, (so low margin trading) and risk only 2% of your capital/trade, 10,000 pips/1.5 years = 52% annualized returns.

fxbrokerratings, you are truely an investing god! If I can only be half as good as you, I will become rich beyond my wildest dreams.

Thank you so much for the info. From what I read about scalp trading, it seemed a bit like alchemy, good in theory but not possible for the average retail trader.

Your long term strategy seems like it actually works giving hope to us all!

[FXBrokerRatings]

ArmyDoc, thank you for your support and you calculations! I have never calculated my annualized returns, and it is nice to see the numbers. Thank you, and thank you for you compliments, although calling me a trading god may be quite overstated and I would say I am far from it.

Next, I would like to apoligize to the forum for my actions of “advertising” my website that resulted in all the charts that I have posted thus far being deleted. I have gone through the efforts of editing them and re-uploading them to my websiteso that I could re-post them here and be legal. And I’m sorry that I did not react quicker to the deletion.

For an update, that GBP/NZD buy that I made yesterday at 2.28720 is currently +121.60 pips and I am expecting to see at least two green bars, one for each of the next two weeks, which should allow to modify the current SL from 2.265 into positive territory with a TS of about 500 pips and let the profits run!

I have been known to be wrong, so if you are banking on what I am saying, please use descretion, money management, and common sense. With that said, I excuse myself from responsibility of your actions. I say that because the trade I have made may be making you drool.

[ArmyDoc]

FXBrokerRatings, would you mind verifying that I have your basic system understood correctly?

You say that you are looking for 5 week trends, do you mean you wait for 5 consecutive candles all moving in the same direction? Or are you also taking into account the candle chart indicators, (I noticed that there was a hanging man on the EUR/USD chart right before you went short, did that influence you in any way?).

Also what % of capital do you risk/trade? Is it a fixed amount or variable?