Ozball's Trading Journal

[Ozball]

Went with a compromise, preset entry on the Bearish side, and will watch and manually enter on the Bullside if news goes the other way.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: BOJs Interest Rate Decision news release.

Entry: 149.20
~30 points below the roughly 149.50 it’s trading at in the leadup to the release.

Stop: 149.50 (30 pips)
Might be a bit tight tbh, as we could see it whipsaw a lot around this release.

Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
Usual amount, though lot size reduced a bit to account for the larger stop than usual.

Target Price: 148.60 (-60 pips)
2:1 RR but also because I feel once we break the 149 range it will just drop a decent amount. I do wonder if we’ll even see 148.00 hit.

Further Notes:
I’ll be looking to enter Manually around the 149.75 level on the Bull side if the BOJ leaves things unchanged today. Also I might try and add to the Bearish side if we see a very strong move downwards (eg breaking the 148 level, but that might be a bit much to hope for)

[Ozball]

BOJ took forever (30 minutes late) to release, so I missed the first minute or so of the move. (was reading related articles etc ) Ended up entering manually at 150.02. Stop is at -30 pips and TP at 60 pips. We’ll see how this plays out.

[Ozball]

I’d just moved my SL up to just above BE as the trade was 30+ pips in profit… and I got hit by a weird sell off for a few minutes just after the hour. So SL got hit… trade result +3 pips. Such is life I suppose. At least we’re not at a loss.

Might consider an entry at just below 150 again to see if we get any overnight swings to the downside again… but considering there are a number of Med-High US news reports coming out in the next 6 hours or so, I might pass. Will reevaluate things later in the evening.

EDIT: Looks like the 1800 JST sell off was just after the close of the Tokyo Session, so I need to remember that for future trades.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 103.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 4
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 25.925
Average Pips Lost: 15

[Ozball]

So I did end up doing another trade last night, but didn’t have time at the time to write up a post.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: Start of the NY Session, and the expectation that the NY session will continue the rise from the Tokyo session due to the results of the BOJ’s policy meeting (and not changing interesting rates yet).

Entry: 150.8
Price was not moving much around the 150.60-75 range for the previous two hours, after some further rises the previous few hours before that. Basically if the NY session was the continue the trend, it probably wouldn’t take much movement to start it.

Stop: 150.6 (-20 pips)
This would drop it below the long legged Doji that occurred 2 hours prior, and would likely signal that the price would be reversing (or at least that there is more Bearish sentiment than I’m happy with for this trade)

Lot Size/Risk: 1% of Account
Only half my usual amount, I’d have liked to put more, but with the pair being strongly in the 150s, and this trade would take it into the 151s, the risk of intervention by the BOJ is still hanging heavy in the air.

Target Price: 151.1 (30 pips)
I felt that testing 151 would be quite likely if there was upward movement, and that 151.1 was possible, even if it reversed back afterwards. But beyond 151.1 I wasn’t as confident. So ended up with a 1.5:1 RRR.

[Ozball]

The above trade went well. I was correct in my assumption that the market would continue it’s momentum from the Tokyo session. It only took a couple hours and TP was hit. The price ended up going above 151.5 before tapering off a bit, so I probably could have been a bit more aggressive with my target, but overall happy with the quick 30 pips.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 133.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 26.74
Average Pips Lost: 15

[Ozball]

Looking at another USD/JPY trade today… we’ve had a decent downtrend today and have already broken today’s daily PP. I think this run has the potential to test 150 again, after the US held interest rates last night.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: US held interest rates, and we seems to have a decent downtrend happing. Considering it’s still early in the Tokyo session, I feel we could see a test of 150 out of this. Downsides, RSI already starting to hit 30 and oversold levels. However, ATX is around 30 and currently in an uptrend, so hopefully this implies the downtrend is picking up speed a bit.

Entry: 150.45
This was mostly a Market Entry after it continued to move down in the candle after it closed below S1. Was probably a bit late in this (breakfast took priority ), and should have entered close to 150.50-55, but ah well.

Stop: 150.75 (30 pips)
This would have brought us back up above S1, and while a retracement uptowards it is probably likely at some point, S1 sits at 150.665 so this is a further 10 pips above it. Part of me wonders if I should be setting it looser, up at around 150.95, where the top of the first red candle of the current run of 3 started. Time will tell.

Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
Smaller lot size to account for a wider stop.

Target Price: 149.95 (-50 pips)
Not quite 2:1 RRR but while I feel the price will test 150, I don’t think it will break through it necessarily. So just below 150 to catch the test.

[Ozball]

The above USD/JPY traded ended well, and while S2 did end up providing a bit of support initially, it did get broken, albeit with some help from the US Jobless Claims coming in a bit weak overnight.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 183.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 30.61
Average Pips Lost: 15

EDIT: Hmm looks like you can’t edit posts that are older than 10 days Won’t be able to update the OP with the Running Summary anymore.

[RedEyeRishMan]

Awesome trades my man! 6/2 ! Those are good numbers to me!

Keep it in the green my friend. Looking forward to the next.

[Ozball]

Trying another Straddle around the US Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls release.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: US Unemployment Data and Non-Farm Payrolls

Entry: Bull: 150.44 Bear: 149.95
Price is trading around 150.2 about 5 minutes out from release. If it comes in negative, we still need to contend with the psychological 150 level, so entry is just below that in the hopes we break through and keep going down. If it comes in positive then looking at entry up around the PP for the day, and where the price has been sitting most of today.

Stop: Bull: 150.24 (-20 pips) Bear: 150.15 (20 pips)
These are basically levels that would invalidate the trade. On the bear side a solid move back up above the 150 line, and on the bull side a drop down towards where the price started.

Lot Size/Risk: 1.6% of Account
Still trying to find out what’s a good level for these straddles, since placing two trades with high lots eats up a lot of my margin. Also there is always a chance of a whipsaw and losing on both. Playing it a bit safe here.

Target Price: Bull: 150.74 (30 pips) Bear: 149.65 (-30 pips)
Bear price is just below the daily S1, I figure after nearly bouncing off a S1 in my last trade, I probably should be a bit more careful of those levels, at least in the USD/JPY and around the 150 level. And Bull was just the same distance as Bear basically.

[Ozball]

This was kind of funny, since the trade finished as I was writing up the above post

Report came in negative, so bear candle straight away. And TP was hit within a minute. +30 pips.

Some observations… my assumption around S1 was mostly correct, the price pushed slightly past it, and then bounced up slightly, but at the time of writing it’s pushing below it again and is trading around 149.52. So I could have potentially been more aggressive with my TP and aimed for 40 points, but I’m also wary about the price punching through both 150 and 149.50 levels in one move. It’s possible (and it still might), but for news releases like this, I’m happy getting my quick pips in. If it ends up being a strong sustained move, I can look at re-entering a trade after TP is hit. Not going to do that this evening, it’s late, and I’m happy ending the week on a high note.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 213.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 7
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 30.52
Average Pips Lost: 15

[Ozball]

Thanks man! This winning streak will have to break eventually, but I’ll ride it while I can!

[MatthaelFx]

Amazing…you’re doing pretty good at this already.

[Ozball]

Play around the release of the RBAs interest rate decision today. Trying something new in that I’ve actually got entries on two pairs.

Symbol: AUD/JPY and AUD/USD

Reasoning: RBA interest rate decision. I’ve got a directional leaning towards rates going up, and there for the Aussie gaining versus the Yen and the Dollar.

Entry: AUD/JPY: Bull: 97.53 Bear: 97.15 - AUD/USD: Bull: 0.6507 Bear: None.
AUD/JPY Bull entry is above the high from the beginning of the week, and also just above the psychological level of 97.50, also just above the daily R1 pivot.
AUD/JPY Bear is below the low of a few hours ago/earlier in the week, not 100% sure on this, as we would need to break through the 97.00 level to hit our PT.
AUD/USD Bull entry is above the psychological 0.6500 level, and the daily Pivot Point.

Stop: AUD/JPY Bull: 97.28 (-25 pips) Bear: 97.40 (25 pips) - AUD/USD Bull 0.6487 (-20 pips)
AUD/JPY Bull stop is below the pivot point and below most of the lows of the beginning of the week. Bear is back above the Pivot Point and above most of the candles from earlier in the week.
AUD/USD Bull stop is around the S1 level, and below most of the lows from earlier in the week.

Lot Size/Risk: AUD/JPY Bull: 2.3%, Bear: 1.9% AUD/USD: 2%
Slightly lower on the Bear as I have a directional bias towards the Bull movement.

Target Price: AUD/JPY Bull: 97.98 (45 pips) Bear: 96.65 (-50 pips) AUD/USD: 0.6544 (37 pips)
AUD/JPY Bull is around the R3 level and the psychological 98.00 level. Bear is down at S3, if we break the psychological 97.00 level then I think it’s possible it will move that far.
AUD/USD: Just above R3 for the day, and near the 0.6550 level which might be a psychological one.

[Ozball]

I need to find a way to time these so I get the orders placed with enough time to write the post before news happens

So, I was right about the way the rates went, but price movement was wrong. The initial move up happened, but then it whipsawed back down and I got stopped out of the AUD/JPY trade (AUD/USD Entry never got hit). Price then moved further down and temporarily broke 97.00 before moving back up. Currently it’s sitting just below S1, so the Bear trade is currently in profit, but I’ve also moved the stop up a bit to 97.275, as I’m not sure it can sustain the downwards pressure, and I want to limit my losses. Part of me really wants to move it to break even, but I might wait for things to settle down a bit first. Currently down 25 pips from the bull trade. I’ll do the full summary once the bear trade has played out. I’ve also cancelled the AUD/USD entry as the price there has also moved bearish.

[Ozball]

So I ended up with one more trade yesterday. It was something I read on the forums here somewhere, and I’ve been wanting to try out for a while now, but never really had the right setup. Soon after writing the previous post, the price was jumping around between S1 and 97.00, the initial momentum from the decision mostly worn out. Usually it feels that after these big decisions, the tone of the day is in the same direction (not always, it does depend a bit on the news, unexpectedness etc). So, I put in a second order, with an open price at the low of where it had reached previously, with a stop at the entry point of the first order, and moving the stop of the first order to the breakeven point. This meant that I was still on the hook for the full 25 pips if the trade went south (Order 1 would break even, and Order 2 would be -25 pips), but if I was right and the price did continue down and break 97.00 again, I would be increasing my profits by having 2 orders hitting their TP, potentially bagging 75 pips worth of profit (50 from the first trade, and 25 from the second), or effectively a 3:1 RRR if I’m doing my math right.

Symbol: AUD/JPY

Reasoning: Price action usually continues in the main trend for the day after a big news story, and if 97 is broken again, then the original price target from the previous order is still valid.

Entry: 96.91
This is the low at which the first order reached last time it broke 97.00, and if the price got there again it would likely continue to go downwards. And while I didn’t quite notice it at the time it’s also exactly half way between Entry and TP for that order.

Stop: 97.15 (25 pips)
This is the entry point for the previous order. With the stop from the previous order being moved to BE, the overall risk over the two orders remains the same (25 pips), while increasing profit chances.

Lot Size/Risk: 1.9%
Same size as the previous order.

Target Price: 96.65 (-25 pips)
Same target price as the previous order.

Further Notes:
Stop on the previous order moves to BE on entry (image doesn’t show it having moved yet).

[Ozball]

In the end, the price did continue to move down and broke the 97.00 mark, triggering the second trade above, and the price actually got as low as 96.50 before reversing back upwards. So overall I came away with 76 pips profit (50 from the first order, and 26 from the second), and 25 pips loss from the first bull trade that got stopped out, for a total of 51 pips profit.
For my summary I’m going to count the winning trade as just 1 trade, rather than 2, since it was effectively just adding to my position on an existing trade.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 289.7
Pips Lost: 55
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 3
Average Pips Won: 36.21
Average Pips Lost: 18.33

[chimmyfx]

Thank you for sharing your trading journal, Ozball! I like how you write your journal, it’s very detailed and organized. I’ll definitely be following your trading journey, and I wish you the best of luck!

[Ozball]

sigh I think I must have had itchy trigger fingers or something… These are the kinds of trades I need to stop doing. (or at least fully commit to in a proper fashion)

Symbol: AUD/JPY

Reasoning: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy release. Was thinking this might drive the price below the S3 that it had been sitting at for a few hours after a decent drop overnight over some US Fed speeches. Quick 20 points down to the psychological 96.00 level.

Entry: 96.149
I actually missed my initial entry of 96.20 because I didn’t set an entry order and decided to do an At Market after the price started to move. Basically didn’t have confidence that it would actually do anything (Medium impact news doesn’t always move the market). Should have just committed to the entry at 96.20 or stayed out entierly.

Stop: 96.249 (10 pips)
The idea is that this was a short quick downwards move that wouldn’t last all that long. 10 pips stop, and 20 PT would be enough.

Lot Size/Risk: 1%
This is an area I did ok in, I kept it lower than I might have otherwise as I wasn’t confident in the trade. This probably should have been my first warning tbh.

Target Price: 95.949 (-20 pips)
Just beyond the psychological 96.00 level, but honestly a bit further than I’d have liked… initial entry target of 96.20 would have nicely had this on the 96 mark.

Further Notes:
Screenshot is of my intended trade, but as I didn’t commit to it, the Entry, Stop and TP are all wrong. Trade is still in progress as of writing, but nearly at Stop level.

[Ozball]

And stopped out. These kinds of trades are where I lose most I think… I’ve been wanting to write down my thoughts as to what my goals are, and try and put some of my strategy into words so that I’m not just flying by the seat of my pants all the time. Might see if I have time later for that.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 289.7
Pips Lost: 65
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 4
Average Pips Won: 36.21
Average Pips Lost: 16.25

[Ozball]

New week, new chance for pips. Trying something new at the moment. Playing around with other pairs (GBP/JPY in this case) and also trying to learn Ichimoku more. I want to try some higher/longer timeframes as well, but that will come, I don’t think this trade is it.

I actually spotted the chance for this trade a few hours before it hit, but told myself to wait for confirmation, so the first chart is when I spotted it (though didn’t put in an order), and the second was from when I put in the order, but as I was out of the house, I had to do it via the mobile app.

Symbol: GBP/JPY

Reasoning: Golden Cross of Span A and Span B being the final trigger (not visible on first chart), Kijunsen and Tenkansen are sloping up, and Tenkansen is above the Kijunsen. Chikoku sen/span (apparently it’s actually called both) is above the candles, and by a decent amount too. Also just broken above R1 daily Pivot.

Entry: Market (185.751)
Waited for the golden cross, and then jumped in.

Stop: 185.481 (-27 pips)
I still need to work on my stops for Ichimoku I think… This is just below the R1 and around the point of consolidation before the move started. So a move back to this level would likely invalidate the move. Probably should have put it down by the Ichimoku cloud (Span A/B), but it felt far away, and would have meant quite a low size to account for the risk. But, again I think that’s something I need to work on.

Lot Size/Risk: 2%
Usual 2% risk. Lower lot size than some of my other trades to account for it.

Target Price: 186.051 (30 pips)
Another area that needs work… Assuming we break through the daily R2 then I think a test of the 186 level is likely, hence the TP. But there is also a swing high at 185.967 from 6th November, which if there is momentum to break that, then we could see the price go well beyond 186… might try and keep an eye on it and see above moving TP up with a SL move as well if things look strong. Need to get past that R2 at 185.826 first.

Further Notes:
This is my first trade on the GBP/JPY, which is meant to be a more volatile pair, so my usual SL and TPs might not work as well here. In just the first half of this hour the price has ranged 20 pips already. I’m not against having more volatility, in fact it’s why I started looking at the GBP/JPY in the first place, but I need to be aware that I might need to be looser with my SLs.