Ozball's Trading Journal

Going to start documenting my trades here. Mostly because I’m bad at doing it in the first place, and making them public adds some accountability. But also hoping it will help me nail down some more specifics of my trading systems. I was originally going to start this after I finished the School of Pipsology, but I got inspired by a few other people who are also still going through it who have started trading journals lately such as @RedEyeRishMan and @playwiththegods.



Secondary (though only rarely/if I have a lot of spare time on my hands)


Sessions: AU/JP

Main: 1h

Secondary: 4h/15m

Tertiary: 1d

Honestly not sure what I’m really doing with some of this, so planning to basically just post my trades and my thinking around them, and then also how they turn out. Comments and criticisms welcome!

Running Progress Update:
As of 01/11/2023

Pips Profit: 133.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 5
Losing Trades: 2
Average Pips Won: 26.74
Average Pips Lost: 15


Going to start this off with a trade I actually started on Friday that I’m relatively happy it’s basis, regardless of out it turns out.

Symbol: AUD/NZD

Reasoning: Ascending Triangle.
I was actually in a short trade earlier in the day when I noticed the ascending triangle forming, so got out of that (thankfully without a loss)

Entry: 1.08400
Above the top of the triangle, but also not so far as to miss any initial moves.

Stop: 1.08200 (-20 Pips)
This is where the trade would be invalid as the triangle would be broken.

Lot Size/Risk: 2% of account.
As this is a demo account, it has a lot more than I would normally be trading with, but to be able to accurately judge returns overtime, I figure I should be trading within the means of my demo account.

Target Price: 1.08800 (40 Pips)
This is just 2:1 of Risk. Will consider exiting early if things start to noticeably swing the other way. But in general planning to just let it run, if I get stopped out, I get stopped out. I do need to work on setting my TP better, as I’ve mostly just used 2:1 so far :thinking:

(Excuse the mess of indicators)

Update on the AUD/NZD trade above.

Hit entry price about 5 hours later, and so far, since then, the top of the triangle has turned into a level of support. Although it had a scary moment over the weekend/market open where it actually dipped below the triangle thanks to very wide-spreads. (16.5 over the weekend… usually it jumps between 2.5 and 5, which is still already quite wide)
This week, I need to be a bit careful of Australian Inflation figures being released on Wednesday.

(Tried for a cleaner image this time)

Absolutely awesome to see you bringing a journal into your routine!

I really do wish I was at the level I could provide criticism and thoughtful insight, unfortunately I’m still at a very early stage of learning just candlesticks and charts themselves, much less trading as a whole.

But I will be however following your progression and learning all I can from it and yourself!

Really looking forward to your trading my friend! :beers:


Cool man. You Aussie? I lived in Melbourne for three months when I used to be a missionary. Fun times.

I miss the fish and chips wrapped in newspaper and the malt vinegar. I can’t get that here in California.

You might want to check out the trading journal of @dushimes and follow him if you think it will be helpful.


Yeah man, grew up in South Australia, but started my career in Melbourne. So a lot of love for both places. And yeah, I’m struggling with similar withdrawals of kebabs/yiros here in Japan. There is a great Greek community in Melbourne, which meant that it was always easy to find great yiros, and kebabs were pretty plentiful too. Will check out dushimes post, cheers for the recommendation! I’ve seen it crop up occasionally in the Latest lists, but hadn’t gotten around to reading through it yet.

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Started another trade today. Didn’t really want to as I was/am feeling a bit rough this morning due to a potential throat infection (or just a cold), but trying to work on a system I’ve got in the works for currency crosses (or at least trialing it on the AUD/NZD and the EUR/CHF) and all the signals were lining up, so pulled the trigger and got in. We’ll see how it plays out…

Symbol: EUR/CHF

Reasoning: Second bearish Heikin-Ashi candle in a row, and no upper wick. Outside of the 1SD Bollinger Band. RSI above 60 (and actually above 70 even). MACD Histogram below 0.0002, and ADX above 20. Not sure on the ADX requirement tbh… as that would imply the previous trend is still strong, rather than turning :thinking: Bonus signal, bumping up along R1 daily pivot point of 0.95084

Entry: Market - 0.95034
Signals are there, get in.

Stop: 0.95134 (10 Pips)
Still need to work on how to place stops for this system. But it’s above R1 at least, so if the price moves too far above that, it would invalidate the trade anyways.

Bonus Exit Condition:
2 bullish Heikin-Ashi candles in a row, with little to no bottom wicks.

Lot Size/Risk: 1.4% of account.
Didn’t want to commit fully to 2%, but also with a tight stop the number of lots needed to hit 2% is quite high, and I still have the AUD/NZD in play, so usable margin is low. (I need to go back and properly figure out how IG does their stuff… it seems weird/I don’t fully understand it)

Target Price: 0.94834 (-20 Pips)
Still sticking with 2:1 Risk. If the trade looks to be going well I might look at shifting it further while bring up the stop, as currently TP is only around the middle of the BBs. But lets get to that point first, and then decide.

EUR/CHF got stopped out almost immediately (2-3 bars after entry). I really need to take that system back to the drawing board and trade it with minimum lots for a bit I think :thinking:

AUD/NZD still in, had a nice rally during most of today, and currently up 25 pips. And I’ve also moved the stop to just above BE (+ 5.1pips above). Might be being a bit greedy, but hoping to lock in at least a few profits, even if it does swing wildly back down.

Hellooo! :blush: There’s definitely no issue with demo trading while you’re completing the school. It lets you put the things you’ve learned into practice right away. :smiley: But I do hope you’re on demo though? Also just wanted to drop by to say that I wish you all the best on this trading journey. :blush: I’ll be cheering for you!


Trying to practice a straddle trade for today’s AU inflation numbers. I’ll fill this post out more neatly a bit later. Woke up late/sick so didn’t have as much prep time as I’d have liked. Yellow lines are breakout points, with entries just above and below them.

Symbol: AUD/JPY

Reasoning: Australian Inflation numbers release, straddle play.

Entry: Bull: 95.42 Bear: 94.97
Just above and below breakout points (Yellow dotted lines) of 95.363 and 95.077. Bear was a bit lower than Bull due to the psychological 95.000 level being just below the breakout point.

Stop: Bull: 95.22 (-20 pips), Bear: 95.17 (20 pips)

Lot Size/Risk: 1% of Account per side
Didn’t want to commit the full 2% on each side as I’m still learning the Straddle.

Target Price: Bull: 95.77 (35 pips) Bear: 94.62 (-35 pips)
Range before the breakout was ~30 pips, so TP set to a similar number. Maybe should have stuck straight to 30 pips, but was feeling a bit greedy I guess?

Hiya! :smiley: Yeah 100% demo account for now… I still don’t have what I’d confidently call a “system” to my trading, so trying a number of different things to see what fits me best. And I’ve told myself I’m not opening a live account until I finish the School of Pipsology, and manage to put away enough savings specifically for trading (ie not part of my normal savings). So might still be a while till I do :sweat_smile: But just gives me more time to practice.

Update on Straddle:

Broke out to the Bullish side, initial movement came within 2 pips of TP :weary: Currently still 16 pips up. Have moved Stop to BE.

EDIT: 25 min later, TP is hit. 35 pips profit. Will keep an eye on the price for a bit. TP was just around R2 Pivot for the day, so if it keeps moving up and above that, then we might have another trade setup, but also the 96.000 level is just above it, so breaking both R2 and the 96.000 level at once might a bit of a tall ask.

EDIT2: Further notes on the Straddle play… While the AUD/JPY moved 49.2 pips in the 1h candle which had the news release in it, the AUD/USD moved 31.5, and the AUD/NZD moved 29.6. So in theory plays could have been done on any of these if one had the capital :thinking: but that’s also a lot of risk and setup to put a straddle on all different pairs.

And forgot to mention the AUD had a nice rally against the NZD last night, so hit TP for the AUD/NZD trade there as well overnight. Current running total (based on start time for this journal):

Pips Profit: 75
Pips Lost: 10
Winning Trades: 2
Losing Trades: 1

Might add this to the top post and keep it updated there :thinking:

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Another possible trade lining up, but a much riskier one. It’s one I’ve been considering for a while, and with the price creeping up again, I figured I’d have a go. Going to put down more thoughts here, as this is very much not a technical play.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: The price is approaching the massive psychological level of 150.00 again. Every time in the last month, that the price has closed in on it, we’ve seen volatile swings downwards. Including the 1h candle on 3rd October 2300 JST where the price move down 149.051 points, between open and close, and the overall distance between the two wicks was 287.8 pips. Much speculation has been had around whether the BOJ intervened or not, but regardless, traders seem skittish around that level, and I’m guessing there might be a few other people with this trade in mind having entry orders around the 150 mark.

Entry: 149.99
Sometimes it doesn’t quite hit the 150 mark before selling triggers, so just in case we’re going in just a pip under it.

Stop: 150.19 (20 pips)
This is just above the peak of the October 3rd candles wick (150.161). So even if there is some aggressive buying to counter the sells, hopefully we don’t get stopped out.

Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account.
Honestly… I might be too greedy here on this quite risky play. Logic is telling me to put in a smaller amount and test the theory. But also there is only so many time the price can test the 150 mark like this before it either breaks up above (which puts Japan in a very rough economic position), or it slides down the other way due to some decision from the BOJ (likely around Yield Curves).

Target Price: 149.59 (-40 pips)
This is just below some of the spikes down, and above some of the others. I wanted initially to put it at the psychological level of 149.50, but (for once in this trade’s reasoning) I’m trying not to be too greedy.

Further Notes:
There are a couple big news tickets coming out in the next few days, Fed Chair Powell speech in the early hours of the morning (JST), followed by Durable Goods Orders and GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv tomorrow evening, and then a few other big US ones on Friday. And of course the BOJs Interest Rate Decision on Halloween (Tuesday).
All of this could have an impact on this trade, and depending on the timing and effects could cause the trade to get blown up, or just never hit the entry at all. As of writing, the price is at 149.94 for SELL, and has creeped up from 149.80 over the day.
Also need to be a bit careful holding this for too long if we do enter, as we’re in relatively strong negative carry trade setup. So if price doesn’t move much, and we’re holding till BOJ’s Interest Rate decision, that’s something that should be taken into account.

Honestly, I’m nervous as hell about this trade, but on the other hand, this is what Demo accounts are for right? Practicing and learning, and at the end of the day, my risk is managed. And it shouldn’t blow up my account as we would need some MAAAAAJOR slippage for that to happen. But also… these kinds of events are ones that can cause slippage (though hopefully not that much) so we’ll see.

You’re doing pretty good with your analysis here. I believe you close to killing it with real account.

Best of luck👍🏽

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So the USD/JPY trade didn’t play out, and is currently trading above the 150 line. While a losing trade is never a nice result, I’m happy with my analysis at the time. We’re in mostly uncharted territory now with the symbol, with numbers not seen since the spike in October last year where it hit a high of 151.948 before some severe intervention by the BOJ. And previously to last October, we haven’t seen the symbol trading anywhere near these numbers in over 10 years. I’m not going to go too much into the analysis here, @FOREX.com have a good analysis post just a few hours ago summarising most of what I’m saying in a more in-depth format USD/JPY: Big call looms for BOJ YCC as Tokyo inflationary pressures heat up. 27/10/2023

The BOJ’s Interest Rate decision on 31st of October is all the more important to watch now, as we might see a lot of volatility around it, especially if any changes to the Yield Control Curve get mentioned. Planning on attempting a News Trade around it, but I fear that a straddle strategy might be too risky, and would likely get whipsawed in both directions. Need to do some research and see if I can develop a directional bias to trade instead.

Regardless, I think there will be a number of USD/JPY trade opportunities presenting themselves over the next few weeks.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 75
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 2
Losing Trades: 2

I need to find a way to put in Lot Sizes in to the summary as 20 pips at 1 lot is very different to 10 pips at 100 lots :thinking: But at the same time, the main goal of a demo account at the moment is total pip profit. Sizing will need some work, but overall, Pips are more important atm.

Ok, I wasn’t planning on another trade this week, but my stupid arse decided to put in a long-shot entry incase the BOJ decided to intervene late at night on a Friday like they did last year when the price was over 150. What I didn’t expect was a strong rally by the Yen in the last couple hours pushing past my entry and about 40 points past it. I’ll post my initial entry data, as normal, but I’ve already moved the stop to just beyond B/E, and will see how far this goes.

Symbol: USD/JPY

Reasoning: Just in case the BOJ decides to try some intervention at the end of the week due to the price being above 150 the last couple days. Honestly this was a stupid premise initially, and my entry point was way too close to the current price when I placed it, even if it was beyond the psychological level of 150.

Entry: 149.90
Worth noting, when I put this order in and left my desk, the price was around 150.20. 30 Pips drop was probably too close to use… if it was going to drop due to intervention, and extra 30 or 50 Pips further down would still have caught the bulk of the move.

Stop: 150.10 (20 pips)
Standard risk prevention, even if it was a stupid premise, if it did happen and whipsawed in the wrong direction for me, it wouldn’t lose more than I would on a normal trade. At least I made one sensible decision in this trade.

Lot Size/Risk: 2% of Account
For such a crazy trade idea, I shouldn’t have been risking anywhere near this amount. I just defaulted to my usual. :man_facepalming:

Target Price: 147.90 (-200 Pips)
If the BOJ was going to intervene, and last year was any indication, it would probably drop a few hundred points. Last time (based on 1D chart) it dropped close to 400 points from it’s open price, before closing the day at around -150 Pips. So 200 Pips seemed like a nice long shot.

Further Notes:
As of writing the trade is about 20 Pips in profit, and I’ve moved the stop to about 3 Pips in profit to at least avoid losing anything on this trade. Despite this (at least, currently) going well for me, I still feel very stupid getting into it in the first place. It was poorly thought out, and entry was placed way too close to current price.
For now I’m going to leave the TP where it is, not because I think it will actually reach it, but I want to watch the price a little bit before deciding where to place it, or whether to close the trade entirely before heading to bed.

EDIT: Further Notes:
On doing some looking at the economic calendar, it seems as though part of this rally by the Yen is driven by slightly worse than expected PCE numbers coming out from the US around 21:30 JST. Another thing I should have checked before putting in this crazy entry order… whether there were major news events scheduled. :man_facepalming:
Also I’ve moved the TP to 40 Pips as is my usual 2:1 RRR even though the Stop is already (just) in profit. Treating it like a normal trade for now.

Momentum seemed to have died out in the last 20 minutes or so, so just manually closed the trade. Total Profit: 22.7 Pips. Not how I intended to end the week, but at least it turned out well. Time for some sleep.

Running Summary:
Pips Profit: 97.7
Pips Lost: 30
Winning Trades: 3
Losing Trades: 2

New week, new stuff to look at. No trades planned today, but will be keeping a close eye on a number of events this week, and hope to get some trades around them. Going to take some notes here on my thoughts and stuff. Need to start thinking about which to try and trade, and which to miss.

First of all the BOJs Interest Rate decision tomorrow (Tuesday) will be a big one, especially with the USD/JPY breaking and then dropping back down below the 150 level at the end of last week. Lots of speculation about potential big news out of tomorrow’s meeting.

There is NZ Unemployment rates on Wednesday… not sure if I’m going to do much around this. In a quieter period I would, but with all the US and JP stuff this week I might give it a miss.

Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning brings the US Interest Rates decision, and depending on how the JP one goes, this could also have some strong effects on the USD/JPY.

Following day has some Payroll news from the US… will see where we stand at that point in the week whether or not to try and trade those. US news is always a bit tricky for me as half the time it comes out at 3am in the morning, so it’s usually more of a set entry levels and hope, sort of deal.

So some good chances to make some pips, just need to make sure I play them right and get what I can. the RBA’s interest rate decision is early next week too, so it will be an interesting 10 days or so.

Ok, 50 minutes till the BOJ’s decision and I need to start forming a strategy properly. As much as I’d like to trade this on both the AUD/JPY and the USD/JPY, I’m going to play it safe and just trade the USD/JPY.

I’m tending towards a Bearish direction for the result, I think the BOJ will make some changes that will send the pair downwards. But at the same time, they’ve been quite stubborn about changing their monetary policy, so if they don’t do any changes, we could see a strong rally up, and possibly break the 150 level again.

Currently the pair is around the 149.50 level, and I feel that moves to either 150, or 149 are both on the table. The pair actually dropped nearly 70 points last night just before midnight and started the day around the 149 level, and then boosted up to around 149.50 off of some weaker than expected Retail Sales reports out of Japan.

If I aim for a straddle, I think I’ll look for about 50 points initially (though considering the nearly 70 point drop last night, maybe I should be going higher…), with an entry at 149.80 on the Bull side. As it is the top of the range the price was trading before it dropped off last night, and if we do go up, I’m expecting to break the 150 range.

For the downside, it’s a bit harder, we don’t have much of a range leading up the release… Thinking of going with around 149.20, basically needing the price to move 30 pips in either direction to trigger the entries. The main worry is that there might be a lot of whipsawing after this release :thinking: Regardless of what happens, this will be a good learning experience. I’ll post my trades as normal once I’ve put them in a bit closer to the time.