Parabolic SAR - that's all!

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Hello every body:

here is a very nice post about the Alligator indicator and how it works in the market
Lips, Teeth and Jaw of the Alligator show the interaction of different time periods. As clear trends can be seen only 15 to 30 per cent of the time, it is essential to follow them and refrain from working on markets that fluctuate only within certain price periods.

When the Jaw, the Teeth and the Lips are closed or intertwined, it means the Alligator is going to sleep or is asleep already. As it sleeps, it gets hungrier and hungrier � the longer it will sleep, the hungrier it will wake up. The first thing it does after it wakes up is to open its mouth and yawn. Then the smell of food comes to its nostrils: flesh of a bull or flesh of a bear, and the Alligator starts to hunt it. Having eaten enough to feel quite full, the Alligator starts to lose the interest to the food/price (Balance Lines join together) � this is the time to fix the profit.

Hey Dale i think this make sence as the chart is saying so 2 so this will really help us big time.we should keep on applying them into the PSAR and try to reduce our Loss as much as we can

Regards,

Akram

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hey Akram,

The alligator indictator looks interesting, as I am only using SAR right now. However, I can’t find this indictator in my platform. Is there another name that it goes by?

Alan

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Hello Alan,

well what platform u r using?

Regards,
Akram

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hello every body,

Well i was just thinking that now we can know how the market goes with our nice new Indicator that we r using with the PSAR.But i still don’t buy one thing which is when u know that the market is going in sideways we have to keep out of trade coz basicly our strategy will not be profitable.it may get us some loss that we need to aviod.

Ok this is good so far.But why the hell can’t we take some advantages over that???

WHAT i mean (i am just thinking loudly now) why can’t we use this Alligator and try to think for another strategy that will work for us in those bad days (i mean the sideways move days) then we can ride the trend up or down and when it go silent we can ride it as well.very smart point i think!! but how?

Well i think we really should think for somthing that can help us to get some pips out when the Aligator go to sleep.

I noticed that when the 3 MA’S hit the same candel what happen is that the market form a sideways walk and they almost go up in one point and go down to another point and repeat them selfs up and down till they form a new trend .or in another word till the alligator starts to wake up and eat!!!

Regards,

Akram

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I am currently trading with forex.com. Thanks for the help

Hope the alligator is working well for you

Alan

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Dear Alan,

i don’t know really what is the platform u r using with Forex.com is it like a jave platform or is it MT4 platform?

Akram

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hello Alan,

yes i think they are working properly.they r not telling me that the market is forming a sideways walk yet for any of the postions i am openning.i opened 5 postions so far . so lets see how things will go for the next couple of days
and i will keep on posting my experiance here

I don’t know where is Dale?? Dale watch the alligator man he is eating now!!!

Akram

330

Good afternoon everyone,

Don’t worry - I’m here - just got a late start today!!!

Akram - I am following the Alligator and your theory (but on stocks as I do not have it on my ‘forex only’ platform and Delta) and I like what I’m seeing very much.

For now - on forex - I’m still following my ‘shotgun approach’ and opening positions based purely on Parabolic SAR. I must say that it is not going too well at the moment i.e. I’m still in a loss because I have a position on one particular pair i.e. the USD/RON which is absolutely ‘killing’ me - so much so that I’m tempted to take the loss and forget about it - but - experience has taught me - that if Parabolic SAR has not reversed - then - do nothing - as I have seen it too many times before - you take the loss ‘thinking’ you know which direction the price is going to go in - and then it turns out Parabolic SAR was right and you have not only now taken a loss but missed out on a big profit as well!!!

Regards,

Dale.

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well i am taking some loss 2!!! i have 5 open postions and i do have 3 losses but i will stick to the rule will not close any of them unill i have somthing that is telling me to do so.

Any ways the market today is moving slowly but not with the 3 postions that i am lossing with!!!

Akram

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Dale,

did u close the USD/CHF???

Akram

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And now everyone - for the ‘surprise’ that I’ve been talking about:

About two weeks ago I contacted Mr Wilder’s organisation and asked them if it would be at all possible for them to offer us (the people subscribed to this thread and I suppose anyone else that has registered with babypips and is interested in his work) a discount on the book ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ and - today - they sent me the discount ‘code’.

They have agreed to give anyone who subscribes to this thread (or anyone that has registered with babypips) a $20 discount on the book making the price of the book now only $45 (excluding shipping and handling of course).

I thought that this was extremely decent of them. I explained to them that although the price of the book - even at the full retail price - is worth every cent (in my opinion) - if you only have $200 or $300 to open a trading account - then $65 is quite a percentage of the money that you have available - and - they agreed - and are quite willing to help out.

Another reason that I tried to organise some sort of discount for you guys (to make the book more accessible) - is because I would like to start two other threads on babypips dedicated to two of the trading systems in the book. These trading systems are specifically designed to work in ‘sideways’ or ‘choppy’ markets - and they do work - well - and they are not .

The problem is that I cannot start these threads unless I know that there are other people who have the book following the threads - for the simple reason that if you don’t have the book - you won’t be able to follow the threads because you won’t know what’s going on - and I can’t post the systems in their entirety on the threads - because that would be a copyright violation - first and foremost - and - I also firmly believe - that Mr Wilder is due at least something for his trouble if you are using his work and it’s making money for you.

In the book there are also in depth explanations of his indicators (obviously like Parabolic SAR) and a host of other things e.g. the Commodity Selection Index (CSI) which basically, once calculated, tell you which commodities (pairs) you SHOULD be trading at a given time based on certain factors and which commodities (pairs) you should NOT be trading based on certain factors.

Anyway - where to from here?

If you are interested then the only way that I can think of doing this is that you send me a PM and I will then give you the discount ‘code’ via PM. That way I will also have a good idea as to how many people are interested in starting the threads as well i.e if it’s not enough and only one or two people are interested then those one or two people and myself can just ‘trade’ together via email and not via threads on babypips.

Now - before anybody even entertains the idea of saying that I’m trying to sell or promote the book and make a profit out of the sales:

I am in no way affiliated with Mr Wilder, nor his organisation, and will not receive a single ‘dime’ out of any of these sales - and that you have my word on - and - believe you me - that good enough.

Moreover - I bought the book ages ago - and I refer to it pretty much everyday - so it really is no ‘skin off my nose’ whether you buy the book or not. What I can tell you is that - by using the trading systems in the book and actually ‘understanding’ how his indicators were designed to work (like RSI for example) as opposed to just ‘plonking’ them on a chart and hoping for the best - I have paid for the book a ‘gazillion’ times over and I’ll also tell you that it was only when I actually sat down and ‘studied’ the book that my trading took a turn for the good and I stopped taking ‘humungous’ losses and wiping out live accounts.

Anyway - don’t EVER say that I don’t think of you guys!!!

Regards,

Dale.

PS - Administrators - I have not heard from you on this subject yet - but - I really believe that the way I have done this - should (hopefully) be OK with you. If it is not OK and I am contravening any rule of babypips then you have my sincere apologies and - obviously - feel free to delete this message. All I want to say is that what I am trying to accomplish here is being done in good faith and in an effort to help those who are maybe less fortuanate than I and don’t have the vast resources that I have had at my disposal and am trying to help my fellow traders (especially the new ones) to make money and avoid the financial ‘pain’ that trading caused me for many months when I started out.

PPS - Another thought - why not take you $20 ‘saving’ and donate it to babypips - by now - if you have been following this thread - you should have made WAY in excess of $65!!!

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Akram:

did u close the USD/CHF???

Whatever for???

It’s one of the FEW positions that ARE showing a profit ($342) at the moment!!!

Sorry - that’s one thing - I HAD closed USD/CHF at month end last month - but the reason that I got back in on this pair was because I was using Mr Wilders’ ‘Reaction Trend System’ on this pair because it was range bound for a time and it ‘broke out’ on Friday - so that’s the only reason I’m in this trade again - otherwise I would have had to have waited for the reversal. I do hope, however, that those Parabolic SAR dots start accelerating very rapidly because the price is FAR FAR away from the current dot and if this reverses before profit gets locked in you are looking at taking a loss of ‘majestic’ proportions!!!

Regards,

Dale.

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By the way:

For those of you who are looking at Akram’s method to confirm Parabolic SAR entry (or rather to see if the pair is range bound or trending) by using Bill Williams’ Alligator BUT don’t have the this indicator included with their trading platform or charting tools:

The Alligator indicator consists of the following (defaults):

Alligator’s Jaw:

Blue Line
13-period moving average at the mid-price (High+Low)/2 which is offset 8 bars into the future

Alligators Teeth:

Red Line
8-period moving average at the mid-price (High+Low)/2 which is offset 5 bars into the future

Alligators Lips:

Red Line
5-period moving average at the mid-price (High+Low)/2 which is offset 2 bars into the future

Some charting tools or trading platforms will allow you to ‘offset’ a number of bars into the future (as above).

On others - like Delta - I would not have clue as to how to do this (offset the number of bars into the future) - BUT - by just having the above three MA’s on your chart (without worrying about the offset) - you can at least see the same thing as the Alligator indicator would indicate to you i.e. ranging, ‘waking up’, ‘eating’, trending, stuff like that - you just can’t see the ‘prediction’ that the actual Alligator would give you (because of the offset into the ‘future’).

Regards,

Dale.

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Hello Dale,

thanks for this post offcourse there is nothing that can predict the future price or else we will be so rish!!!

But the good thing about the Alligator it gives u the signals for how the mareket is .so if u r in a trend it will tell u that u probebly wait and don’t close postions untill u get the max. profit or it can tell u that the marekt is not forming a trend so u eather close your postion if u r already having one or wait for a new possible trend that is comming soon and be prepared to ride the wind!!

So about the book what is the name of the book? i don’t think that i will find it here in Egypt but i think that i can have it when i go to canada and that will be very soon.Hope it is worth it Dale or else i will get my money back from u!!!.

Dale yesterday i was thinking to tell u something about the weekend that will make sence for u coz i am sure u don’t buy what i said about the weekend.

But when u read what i am saying i think that will make sence for u.u guys take sat. and sun day as a weekend coz on sunday u go to cherch same thing in middel eastern countries that we go to the mosque on friday that is why it has to be a day off!! i think now it makes sence for u

337

OK - now that I have ‘programmed’ the Alligator into Delta’s platform - I have just remembered something:

In Bill Williams’ ‘Trading Chaos’ trading system the Alligator’s jaw or lips MAY be used as values for placing stop losses depending on whether you are long or short.

Now - I have just noticed something (chart attached):

If you apply this SAME principle combined with Parabolic SAR it would appear that you get out MUCH earlier when the reversal comes.

In the attached chart you will see that whenever a trend has ended the price has touched either the jar or the lips BEFORE a new Parabolic SAR dot has appeared the next day indicating a reversal. The difference is that when you are stopped out by the value of the Alligator’s jaw or lips you have ‘saved’ quite a lot of profit / made the loss smaller than you would have had you ‘stuck’ with the ‘pure’ Parabolic SAR method.

Just an idea.

I’m not sure if this is what Akram was trying to tell me - if it was - then I apologise for not understanding you properly. If this NOT what you were trying to say Akram - then thanks for putting us onto the idea!

Regards,

Dale.

gbpchf daily delta alligator.jpg700×518 66.6 KB

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Hey Akram,

Sorry - we were ‘overtyping’ each other again.

I did understand what you were saying about your weekend - I just never knew that is all.

I also think I was posting the same ‘idea’ as you were while I was typing it (see my previous message and chart).

As far as the book is concerned - I think it’s worth it - just bear in mind that if you want to get the $20 discount you have to order it through their website i.e. that’s where you would put the ‘discount code’ in (I assume anyway). Look - $20 is not a lot - but it’s something - although - if you are going overseas - like to Canada - you may pay full retail for the book BUT you would obviously not have to pay shipping and handling fees - so - in the end - it would probably work out the same - for you anyway.

The name of the book is ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’ by J. Welles Wilder Jnr. It’s a sort of ‘classic’ i.e. it was written a very long time ago BUT I can tell you that - even with the technology that we have today - the market ‘principles’ have not changed at all from what I can see.

Regards,

Dale.

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Hey Dale,

what i was trying to say is that whenever we have a reversal trent that has to be attached with a uturn from our lovely alligator which i called it a new born alligator.

What will happen after that is 2 possible things:

1- that the 3 MA’S will not touch each others and will go up or down (depends on the PSAR)till the trend change the direction and they form another uturn .and that means that our Alligator is very hungry and he is moving so fast.

2-the 3 MA’S cross each others that means the market is walking on a sideways.and when they do so that means our alligator is sleepy and he is not hungry.

I tested them and i can tell u that there are no lagging the moment PSAR form a dot in the other direction they form a nice uturn.i have no doupt about that.

Regards,

Akram

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I will search on the book and i will get it when i go there so wait for me till i read it!!

Akram

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No problem Akram!

How is everybody doing today?

I’m getting ‘killed’ or should I say that I’m ‘dying’ here - there is very little or no movement in the markets once again - is this because it’s Monday AGAIN!!!

I mean - I’m sitting on 18 positions that have been alternating between a nett loss of around $1300 and a net profit of never more than about $400 or so for the past two days - I can’t STAND IT!!!

At this point I have a very bad feeling that my 114% is NOT going to materialize this month!!!

Regards,

Dale.

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Dale,

I hope it is coz monday but hey it is really very slow today and i think tom we should watch some trends happening i think the USD/CHF is doing fine Dale.

Dale i want to ask u somthing about the rollover how they calcuate it? if i do open a postion for let say 18 days how much they will charge me i never succed to know such a thing

Akram