You’ve got it!!!
Put it this way - at the moment - had you (I) done this - you’d (I’d) be in the ‘pound seats’ right now.
I’ll post some charts just now with Gold / Oil and AUD/NZD/CAD/ZAR for comparison purposes and detail my idea a little more.
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
Great that we r on the same line!! so now want to ask u a quick question there was a vaild entry yesterday with the GBP/CHF on delta platform did u open this postion or not?
Akram
Hello,
Yes - I got the signal a day before - and took it (GBP/CHF).
At the moment it’s in a ‘tiny’ loss - but I think this position will turn to profit tomorrow because I believe that the Swiss are going to raise interest rates tomorrow SO this should be good for anything CHF.
Also - if you look nicely (and I’m throwing EVERYTHING in here) - MACD has crossed AND ‘your’ Alligator has started to turn down (although not in a confirmed trend though but it’s coming I HOPE)!!!
Regards,
Dale.
That means that the USD/CHF u opened a week ago for sell has to be closed?
Akram
sorry dale i know it is ABC trade but i just want to confirm my knowledge
When the intrestrate raise up in any country that means i have to sell right
Ok to be more clear if i went to sell the gbp/chf and the intrest rate on the chf is going to be rasied so the chf will be droped down right ?
Akram
Hello,
OK - well - basically - when a country raises its interest rate - that’s good for the currency i.e. the currency will strengthen.
So - in the case of GBP/CHF - if the Swiss raise interest rates - then the CHF will strengthen against the GBP - so - in this case - you should be short (sell).
One thing you must also remember though (at least from what I’ve seen) there will be a ‘spike’ just after the interest rate announcement BUT usually things return to ‘normal’ and then the currency just continues on it’s path in the same direction as it was going before as per Parabolic SAR. That’s why I was saying that it’s funny that ‘normally’ Parabolic SAR is already going in the right direction before these announcements (as in the case of GBP/CHF at the moment). This rule DOES NOT however apply to USD/JPY though (at least in my experience). In other words - with USD/JPY - let’s say that the USA raises interest rates and Japan stays on hold - this normally results in the USD strengthening against the JPY and this appears to hold for weeks on end - because of the carry trade.
I’ll tell you where I learned a hell of a lot in a short space of time: at Forex Calendar @ Forex Factory. There they give you the ‘expected’ impact of each upcoming economic announcement BUT they also give you a short explanation as to HOW or WHY such an announcement affects the currency concerned.
Regards,
Dale.
Well i read abook that was saying somthing completly different thatn what u are saying i will scan it and send it for u tom. that is why i was really going banana about this issue!! any ways i will check the website and give u my feed back
One more thing do u know any website that gives u the news for free like when they announce it?
Hey guyss i am junior member now i don’t know if this is good or bad!!!
but any ways i think it better than a newbie i hate to be a newbie like baby born!!!
Akram
Akram
Hello,
OK - well scan the pages and send them to me - maybe I don’t understand the question then.
That website that I gave you to look at i.e. the calendar at Forex Factory - that gives you exactly what you are asking for i.e. the date and the time of the pending announcement, the currency in question, the expected impact of the announcement for the currency in question, and an explanation of why such an announcement has an effect on the currenc in question. Did you actually go to that site to have a look?
Again - as far as interest rates are concerned - I’m not sure how what I’m saying could be different from anything you’ve read.
Take EUR/USD as another example:
If the ECB raised interest rates then the EUR would appreciate i.e. get stronger against the USD (buy or go long EUR/USD). On the other hand if the USA dropped interest rates then the USD would weaken against the EUR. But if the ECB was to drop interest rates then the EUR would depreciate against the USD OR the USD would strengthen against the EUR (sell or go short EUR/USD). The reason I use this example is because that is exactly what is happening right now i.e. traders are not sure if or when the ECB are going to raise interest rates BUT they seem to be pretty sure that the US are going to drop interest rates so the difference between interest rates is being speculated on at the moment i.e. the interest rate differential between the two currencies could be widening.
Another example is USD/JPY.
Again - at the moment - traders are expecting the US Fed to drop interest rates (next week I think) - so - the USD is weakening against the JPY OR the JPY is strengthening against the USD (same thing - different way of saying it - sort of - at least for the purposes of explanation).
Make sense?
So taking CHF/JPY and GBP/CHF:
Swiss raise interest rates - buy or go long CHF/JPY and sell or go short GBP/CHF.
Swiss drop interest rates - sell or go short CHF/JPY and buy or go long GBP/CHF.
I really trying here - and starting to ‘fry’ my own brain.
Does this make sense?
Put it this way (if I have not ‘lost the plot’ in my ‘tiredness’): the Swiss will announce their interest rate decision at 14h00 South African time (GMT+2) so have your GBP/CHF chart open and watch. If I’m right there should be a ‘spike’ down on GBP/CHF i.e. the CHF is strengthening against the GBP (and if you have something like CHF/JPY you should see a ‘spike’ up). By the way - again if I’m right - then we’re both trading in the right direction right now on GBP/CHF i.e. we are short.
Somebody else please check this to ensure that I have not made any mistakes - if I have then they must be corrected before someone acts on this information.
Edit:
Sorry - now I know what you were asking about websites that give you the information ‘when they announce it’. You’re talking about one of those ‘feeds’ or something like that so that you can place a trade before the ‘spike’. That, friend, is called ‘news trading’ and - unless you are with a broker that gives you INSTANT execution - and I mean INSTANT (not even Delta is quick enough for this) - YOU WILL GET BURNED!!! What happens at news time is that most of the brokers will ‘slip’ your stop order (and yes you have to use a stop or limit order because a market order will NEVER be executed at news time) and when they do this the order will get executed at the end of the ‘spike’ and then the price retracts (always) and - guess what - you’ve made a nice loss in a couple of seconds!!! Not for me - but - have a go (once) - you’ll get the idea (and then your faith in Parabolic SAR and the daily charts will be justified and restored)!!!
Regards,
Dale.
I beleive in what u said i will have alook on the book and i will show it to u tom.and we can discuss it more. let me go tom to my office coz the book is there and i will send it .
No i don’t want to trade news i am just trying to see how things are going on the market but i think this website is good enough.( I am going to check it in sec) i agree that most of the broker hate news trader so they control there trade to make them loss (this is a fact).
To be honest with u Dale what i can understand from the market so far that any thing that u pridict (like the intrest rate) if there are rumers about it that it is going high and it did go high then the impact will not be as good as if it was somthing different than the pridiction and that goes to every thing concering the news not just the intrest rate.
ANYWAYS tom is very soon my dear we will see if we r going to lose on the GBP/CHF or not!!!
Please guys share us!!
Akram
N.B. I am not a newbie any more!!!
correct me if im wrong, from what I learned increase of interest rates means that the currency will be strong
On thurs. swiss will likely increase its increase rates
So I would
USD/CHF - go short?
CHF/JPY - go long?
GBP/CHF - go short?
should i open up the positions early to get a headstart?
Alan
Hello,
NOW TO GO AGAINST EVERYTHING THAT WE HAVE LEARNED OR TRIED TO ACCOMPLISH ON THIS MESSAGE THREAD I.E. IGNORE PARABOLIC SAR AND GET GREEDY:
I too (as a sign of good faith) have done the following tonight:
CHF/JPY - Long
EUR/CHF - Short
and I am (was) already short GBP/CHF and USD/CHF.
OK - if the ‘truth’ be told - I would not have taken any positions that were in contradiction of Parabolic SAR i.e. all of the above - although these are very ‘late’ Parabolic SAR entries - are taken in the direction of Parabolic SAR - so - I hope that means (once again) that Parabolic SAR is right YET AGAIN!!!
That’s what I said in a previous message on this thread: it’s ‘strange’ how - at the time of economic news or data releases - that Parabolic SAR is (normally) already going in the ‘right’ or ‘anticiapted’ direction - almost like it ‘knows’. Actually - it’s not that - it’s just that ALL TRADERS would be taking positions in the same direction e.g. EVERYONE is probably going short or selling GBP/CHF right now - and that’s why the price if going down (Akram - you should ALREADY be in profit on GBP/CHF at this point) - now just watch the Swiss ‘surprise’ all of us tomorrow!!! There - now I said it - they won’t raise interest rates tomorrow - so - now were ALL good to go and make a nice profit on GBP/CHF by being short!!!
Regards,
Dale.
PS - Don’t sue me if I’m wrong!!! I accept NO responsibility for being wrong!!! Everything I have learned I have learned on this website!!! From people like all of you!!! Bear this in mind!!!
Guys,
we r all in one boat and we r all trying to help each others so there is nothing to be bad if i am wrong or Dale is wrong we r here coz we want to be a good traders so as i mentioned earlier i will scan the book i mean the part that talk about the intrest rate and will post tom morning i hope i am wrong to be honest with u coz what Dale said make sence to me and i think to u guys ,but the guy who wrote the book is suppose to be one of those good trader in the market and yes i have some gain for he GBP/CHF
TO ALL OF U I REALLY WANT TO BE WRONG CONCERNING THIS POINT.so guys let us keep the good work and belive me we will never be good if we r not going to participate on this thread i belive that Dale invented this thread to be better than he already is
Regards,
Akram
Dale,
u r not having a signal for the EUR/CHF i don’t know why u want to open this postion the EUR is hiking up big time with all the pairs that is too risky Anyways i hope u make some pips out of it but i will never open it specially i think that there was a great news that came on the last 2 days as it is went to the highiest point to the Dollar and is going up to with the GBP
Good luck Dale
Akram
Hey Akram,
You’re too good at this!
You’re right - I did not even notice that Parabolic SAR was going in the opposite direction!
Probably what I was thinking was that the EUR can’t go much higher (don’t ask me why I say this - it’s one of those ‘feelings’ that I have that always costs me money) AND the Swiss interest rates are going up tomorrow - SO - theoretically - hopefully - the EUR weakens against the CHF AND the CHF strengthens against the EUR tomorrow!!! A sort of ‘double bonus’!!!
That’s my ‘logic’ and as long as I can ‘explain it away’ I feel better!!!
Regards,
Dale.
By the way Akram,
I forgot to mention that Delta has a live news feed included in the trading platform.
The news comes (mainly) from Thompsons and Associated Press.
It’s normally never more than a second or two behind Bloomberg TV and CNBC (sometimes it’s been ahead of them) BUT I don’t think it’s fast enough for news trading (I know that’s not what you are interested in but I thought that I’d just mention it). What’s nice about it is that not only do you get the ‘big’ news from the US and UK BUT because Delta is in Bulgaria you get LOTS of news from the Eurozone that Bloomberg and CNBC could not be bothered with and it’s not just economic data but real news and sometimes analysis and statistics from the banks. I don’t use it much (unless I’m bored then I’ll sift through to find something that captures my interest) but it’s good.
It’s only visible to live account holders though.
Regards,
Dale.
hi everyone,
This sucks I am sitting at some loss right now. I really hope swiss will raise the interest rate. BTW Dale, what is the site for the delta platform. I live in the US and forex.com is not cutting it for me. I am thinking of switching brokers.
Alan
Hi Alan,
Don’t feel lonely - I’m sitting on just over a $9K nett loss at the moment - GBP/NZD, USD/RON, NZD/CHF and GBP/CAD are ABSOLUTELY KILLING ME at the moment.
I’m hoping at least that NZF/CHF will come right tomorrow (today) and I can only hope that Gold and Oil continue up for just a little while longer so that I can get out of GBP/NZD (particularly) without having to take the loss.
Anyway - Delta’s website is deltastock dot com (everytime I put the home page address here it gets edited out or something like that but you know what I mean i.e. spelling out the address like that).
Download their demo and have a look. Be warned - it DOES take some getting used to - but I can tell you - that once you’ve used it - and looked at some of the ‘features’ offered - you get used to it very quickly - and then you start wondering why everybody else has not done it this way.
Just bear in mind (before you close any live account with your existing broker and then find that you can’t trade live for a week or so) that there is a waiting period to open an account with them i.e. they will not open an account until they have sent the documents to you (via courier at their cost), you have signed them, and then sent the originals back to them via courier (again at their cost i.e. they send the documents via courier and then when you have completed them you send them an email and they send the courier to you to collect them). This is because they have to comply with certain statutory requirements as laid down by one or two regulatory bodies (I forget the names right now) but I think they are ‘sort of like’ the EU ‘equivalents’ of the NFA.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
Dale.
Dale,
it is almost 4 in the morning here where it is the first day of Ramadan we fast the whole month Egypt is always bomming in this month.
ok i couldn’t sleep i was thinking about the intrest rate and i feel more confident to what i am thinking about.
Why would any country raise or drop it’s intrest rate???
In my point of view they will do this change coz they have money sitting in the bank doing nothing and they need more investors or they don’t have money and they r full they don’t need more people to invest.or it could be they r facing much trouble concerning the loans for people to get new houses which has a direct effect on the intrest rate.(which is why the states are going to lower there intrest rate this month)
So the country always care about the people who will come and invest some money in the country that is why the less intrest rate the more people who will come and invest the moeny and take loans to go for more busniess
That means whenever the country get the intrest rate low it means that there will be lost of investors who will be encourage to put there money and the money they will take as aloan from the banks to do busniess beside the normal people like us will be more encourged to take loans to build or get new houses.
The states are facing very much trouble now with lots of the american people who can’t pay there loan i think we all heard about this bad news and the economy of the state r going bad coz of this.
then the book that i was reading 2 month back the guy who wrote it is absloutly right coz when they make the intrest rate high why the hell i will go and take loan from the bank to buy new houses or do some busniess or even try to make my company bigger it will never encourage me so i will go to other country where i can have better intrest rate or i will stay till they make it less to start on doing more busniess and take money from the bank.
so when the intrest rate will be low in the states that means the demand for the dollar will be high which will cause strenthing the dollar against any other currency and the vise versa.
Agian the point i wanted to make earlier is that all the poeple know as fact of life that the states are going to low there intrest rate. this is somthing expected but the question is will it affect the marekt? is there will be a huge impact on the market?
Yes there will be an impact ok i agree but what if the governement didn’t do this? what will happen HERE IS A VERY HUGE IMPACT ON THE MARKET coz no one pridcited it so this is where u see huge impact
I remmemebr this when i was trading the GBP against the Dollar when they said that the intrest rate for England will rais up but nothing happened it stays where it was then the pound when crazy DOWN
Any ways i am not 100% sure of what i am saying but i think it sounds logic and i will confirm that the moment i will go to the office (hopfully i will)
Dale i don’t know what to say more about the intrest rate i know it is somthing essiential and very important but guys if u do have some tht u know about the intrest rate please share it with us.
Thanks,
Akram
No Dale
i will never open this position if i am in your positon coz i don’t have a vaild entry and if u look to the EUR there is somthing happing there i don’t know what but it really now getting high with all the currencies exept the CDN so u never know.
ANYWAYS keep me posted for what is going on
AS for delta they seem to be good and thank god we have some one who tried them before
Akram
thanks for the info Akram. What you are saying is correct I believe. Today, NZD accounced its interest rate and it stay the SAME, the pair went down.
Alan