As far as my ‘findings’ are concerned with Parabolic SAR at Delta:
Don’t get me wrong - I’m NOT saying that you should change how Parabolic SAR is calculated or plotted IF IT IS CALCULATED CORRECTLY (even IF this was an option to you). What I am saying is that I think that Delta’s calculations ARE WRONG i.e. according to ‘the book’ when Parabolic SAR is calculated it is only the HIGHEST HIGH PRICES that are (supposed to be) taken into account and from what I can see Delta’s ‘SAR’ is calculated using the HIGHEST CLOSING PRICES for THEIR ‘SAR’. Now the fact is that there obviously is some merit in doing it this way (whether it be a mistake or not) i.e. there are (like I said previously) far less ‘whipsaws’ and Delta’s calculation of SAR keeps you going with, and in, the trend longer HOWEVER it would ‘appear’ that because of this ‘possible mistake’ you are getting entry signals too early and stop and reverse signals too late. That’s why I need some input from ‘the man himself’.
As far as asking your broker about this is concerned - I would not waste my time. Delta is THE ONLY broker that I know of where your queries make it past customer service to the IT department (I know this because they have already (in the current version of the trading platform) added one or two of MY suggestions to the software, and will be adding one or two more of MY suggestions to the new version). For the most part - at ‘other’ brokers - you are pretty much talking to the ‘broker equivalent’ of a ‘call centre agent’ and are more likely to get the question ‘Parabolic WHAT?’ from customer service than ‘Oh yes - of course - our Parabolic SAR uses the highest high price while in a long trade to calculate Parabolic SAR - is there anything else I can do for you?’!!!
As far as your 500 ‘green’ PIP’s and your 250 ‘red’ PIP’s are concerned - yes - that IS HUGE and well done. I probably DID have all those positions open until two weeks ago and would probably be sitting in the same place you are right now. HOWEVER - the object of the (our) ‘excercise’ is to ‘eliminate’ those ‘red’ PIP’s ‘from the get go’. Would it not be FAR better to ONLY have the ‘green’ PIP’s right now??? The kind of trades I’m hoping we are going to get from now on are the ‘text book’ trades where NOTHING can go wrong (I have attached a chart to demonstrate what I reckon is going to be a ‘text book’ trade next week maybe even as soon as Monday and THESE are the kind of trades that I’m hoping we will start taking ALL THE TIME from now on). In other words - the object of the excercise NOW is to end up with (at any given time) for example - out of 44 positions / pairs - hopefully 42 of them showing a profit and maybe only 2 of them showing a loss (and these 2 only there because you ‘broke a rule’) - as opposed to 22 of them showing a profit and 22 of them showing a loss and hoping that the ‘nett’ is a profit. Remember (I have proved this already I think): your ‘nett’ could just as easily be a ‘nett loss’ as a ‘nett profit’ depending on which pairs you are trading at any given time. Like I also said before - unless there is a way of ‘weighting’ the pairs against each other - you could land up in the ‘sh1t’!!! In other words - let’s assume that your lot size is 100000: 100000 units of GBP/ZAR is a whole lot different position than 100000 units of EUR/USD and if, let’s say, GBP/ZAR is showing a loss then EUR/USD has to be showing a ‘disproportionate’ profit to cover the loss on GBP/ZAR. So - I figure - we either have to ‘weight’ the pairs against each other (by varying the lot sizes) OR we ONLY take ‘text book’ trades!!! This would ALSO have the added benefit of reducing the amount of margin or capital needed for the simple reason that you don’t have to ‘carry’ or ‘cover’ a ‘sh1tpile’ of losing positions.
Again - as far as the attached chart is concerned - imagine that every single trade that you took started out like this one (possibly could) and after waiting for this type of setup on each and every single pair (44 pairs) and ALL of those positions sitting in a profit at any given time!!! Now THAT’S trading!!! Look how many days I’ve waited for this (count the ‘dots’)!!!
Let me put it this way: if trades like THIS turn ‘sour’ then I might as well make a nice big poster listing all the pairs in two columns - one column to ‘buy’ the pair and one column to ‘sell’ the pair. The procedure then would be to place such poster on a dartboard once a day, blindfold myself, spin around three times, and throw a dart at the poster and, depending on where the dart lands, either buy or sell that pair. If I miss completely then that would be a signal to stay out of the market for that day!!! What do you think???
Actually - now that I think about it - I’m sure that I read somewhere - that it’s possible to trade like that i.e. I read somewhere that because of ‘our connection to the universe’ and ‘fractals’ and ‘stuff’ like that that it is quite feasible to just walk up to your computer and take a ‘random’ trade i.e. no charts no nothing and then just keep repeating the process every day. Apparantley it can be (was) quite successful if I remember correctly!!! Chances are good though that this person was ALREADY a multi-million dollar millionaire and had nothing better to do with themselves!!!
Anyway - PATIENCE is STILL THE KEY - EVEN MORE SO NOW - DO YOU GET THAT DALE!!!
So many pages of posts that I have to cacth up with and read through.
Just a quick update of the positions I am holding. I have 8 still open that were taken over a week ago now using parabolic SAR alone. Every one of these is sitting in healthy profit. The GBP/USD position I closed manually after the dollar rallied after the Fed cut.
What I did on about 4 of these positions after they broke the 200 pip profit barrier, I took 1/3 of the profits of the table and let the rest run. I know this is not in system in anyway, but I felt I should bank some profits.
Will be interesting to see how we progress in the week ahead.
I dont know about you guys, but I have not seen a valid entry for a few days now. Patience is very much the key with this system.
I’m not sure that I would worry too much about ‘messing’ with the exit strategy. If I’m not mistaken it was Ingot54 that said something like ‘your profits are in your exit strategy’ or something like that.
Again though - with Parabolic SAR - once you have ‘broken’ the cycle early - you could wait a LONG time to get back in again. That’s the problem.
Actually - it just occurred to me - that the title of this thread could no longer be further from the truth - even if I tried!!!
Here is a quote from my ‘opening’ post on this thread:
Why is it that we all feel the need to ‘mess’ with the indicators and try and find that ‘edge’ when there are already tried and tested and proven methods of making money!
ROFLOLTSOOE (pronounced - ‘rof - lol - tsuey’)!!! It’s a new one: ‘Roll On Floor Laughing Out Loud Tears Streaming Out Of Eyes’!!!
You are right that If we exit early it may take some time before there is an opportunity to get back in the market again and this may not satisfy our addiction to be trading:D.
But patience and discipling are needed here I think. Let’s see how it goes, we are still developing the sysyetm after all and I think it’s going very well up til now.
I got to go back and read the last twenty pages of the thread to refresh my memory.
I just found this article on the Internet and found it interesting (see attached Adobe PDF file).
It is an interview with ‘THE MAN’ (Mr J. Welles Wilder Jnr.) from ‘The Traders Journal’.
Read it carefully i.e. ‘read between the lines’ - there is a lot of information and good advice here.
Just thought it may give you more confidence in ‘THE INDICATOR’ (Parabolic SAR) i.e. KNOWING that it was not ‘just slapped together’ by some ‘yahoo’ that had nothing better to do with his time than to draw some ‘random dots’ on a sheet of graph paper!!!
u love this guy big time!! well after i read this intrview i think he is one of the best traders on the earth!!.
But Dale how can we get both systems he is talking about??? and he is saying he makes 50k a year on the delta system is this all what the system can be done?? or he means it makes 50k if he use just 1 lot??? I don’t understand this point!!
Thanks for posting this i think it is very nice to be known
I’m not sure which systems you are talking about (he mentions some new ones and some of the ‘original’ ones - like his ‘Volatility System’ - and these are in my (his) book i.e. ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’). I (currently) use three of the systems that he mentions: ‘The Volatility System’, ‘The Trend Balance Point System’, and ‘The Reaction Trend System’ on the Indices, Gold, Oil, and Silver (oh and on Soybeans of course). Of the three ‘The Volatility System’ does THE LEAST trades (I have not even had one yet) BUT I track it daily and I can tell you that when I do eventually get a signal and enter it’s going to pay off BUT BIG TIME. ‘The Reaction Trend System’ gives a lot of action and makes consistent profits. The ‘problem’ with all of these systems is that you really have to understand and study them and you cannot trade too many instruments with them at a time for the pure and simple reason that it takes time to maintain them on a daily basis e.g. you could not use them (well maybe you could use ‘The Volatility System’) to trade 44 pairs daily UNLESS you had a live data feed and software to do the calculations for you (I manually key in the open, high, low, and close prices into a spreadsheet for each instrument that I trade with them and this is time consuming). That’s why I was hoping that more people would ‘spring’ for his book ‘New Concepts In Technical Trading Systems’. The idea was to sort of ‘spread the load’ on a daily basis among ourselves e.g. I would do the calcuation of the entry, exit, take profit, and stop loss values for say 10 pairs, somebody else could do it for another 10 pairs, somebody else another 10 (you get the picture) and then we could ‘pool’ our information daily thus making it quicker and easier to maintain the systems on a daily basis but nobody seems interested for some or the other reason even AFTER they offered everybody here a discount. Anyway - as far as profit from these systems goes - they are constantly profitable - but I’m still getting ‘comfortable’ with them so I’m only trading with small amounts at this point i.e. I still have to refer to the book every time I want to do something BUT when these systems become sort of ‘second nature’ to me then I’ll start ‘ploughing in’ the ‘BIG’ money and opening the ‘FAT’ positions!!!
And no - I have not had an answer yet - but I know I’ll get one - soon.
And - back to business: just gone through my ‘wishlist’ and STILL no ‘text book’ entries - they’re all still ‘coming’!!! This week LOOKS promising though i.e. the ‘wishlist’ is getting longer and longer as the days goes by!!!
I think i have to buy the book coz i need to understand every thing from the begining i think there are lots of people are intrested to get the same book and we may try another thread to those who trade with these new system.But i can feel it is very very hard to trade with as it takes from u long time to have a vailed entry through these new systems!!
Akram - funny you should say that it takes a long time to get valid entry points with these systems. I was actually thinking about that yesterday and it seems to apply ‘across the board’ as it were i.e. it appears to me that the amount of profit that a position eventually makes is in direct proportion to the amount of time that you had to wait to enter the position in the first place (and I’m not trying to make a joke here either).
Don’t know - just something that sort of ‘struck’ me yesterday or sometime last week.
OK - and now for the ‘joke’ part: I sincerely hope that the above IS in fact true i.e. I’ve been waiting long enough now to get some valid entried based on OUR ‘rules’!!!
I think it will affect me i.e. if some of my charts are updated at 06h00 here in SA - which is 00h00 New York time - then when DST ‘kicks in’ in the USA that means what??? - my 06h00 charts (00h00 New York) are now going to be updated at 05h00 SA time not??? There goes another hour of sleep!!!
I don’t THINK that Bulgaria has DST. Does anyone know if Belize has DST? I suppose I COULD look it up myself hey!!! On the other hand it MAY be something that you all forgot about so consider this a reminder!!!
Totally ‘off topic’ but some useful (useless) information anyway:
This has NOTHING to do with Parabolic SAR BUT is a ‘quick way’ to make a few PIP’s (not tried yet BUT will probably give it a bash tonight):
This is not a new concept by any means i.e. it is ‘detailed’ in ‘Mastering The Trade’ by John F. Carter (which is REALLY another excellent book but I won’t bore you with the details because you people don’t like reading it would seem) (neither do I if the truth be told UNLESS the reading material is yet another way of making money in this business). The name of the chapter however says it all i.e. ‘The Opening Gap: The First and Highest Probability Play of the Day’!!!
I read this a while a go but never REALLY gave it much consideration UNTIL TODAY.
In preparing my daily worksheets for Mr Wilder’s trading systems it has FINALLY dawned on me what this ‘gap play’ is about.
Basically - every day I update my worksheets (I’m building up a ‘library’ of worksheets for each Index, commodity, precious metal, and pair that I want to trade with Mr Wilders’s trading systems BUT it’s taking time TO DO IT ON MY OWN) - and every day I capture the open, high, low, and close price of an instrument. NOW - it’s just ‘hit’ me that there IS a ‘gap’ between the closing price of an instrument (pair) on Friday night and the opening price of the same instrument (pair) on Sunday night!!! THIS IS THE GAP!!! Why this is significant is BECAUSE THE GAP HAS TO BE FILLED!!! SO - the play is this: if the closing price of an instrument (pair) on Friday night is HIGHER than the opening price of the same instrument (pair) on Sunday night THEN YOU KNOW that the ‘gap’ is going to be filled in the next day or two SO in this instance you would go long just after the open on Sunday night and TP when the gap is filled!!! Conversely - if the closing price of an instrument (pair) on Friday night is LOWER than the opening price of the same instrument (pair) on Sunday night then you would go short and TP when the gap is filled!!! Simple???
Have a look at your charts for the past couple of weeks and compare the opening price on Sunday night with the closing price on Friday night if you don’t believe me!!! And - obviously - the bigger the ‘gap’ the more you’re going to make (watch out for the high spread pairs here though)!!!
Now - the plot thickens!!! This was detailed in ‘Mastering The Trade’ BUT was being applied to stocks and the Indices (not Index futures but the ‘proper’ indices) BECAUSE these instruments ARE NOT traded 24 hours a day i.e. they open and close at the same time as the NYSE so there COULD be a ‘gap play’ every day UNLIKE forex pairs where they are traded 24 hours a day BUT I have just discovered (‘Analysis-Paralysis’) that THERE IS A GAP EVERY SUNDAY NIGHT!!!
See what ‘reading’ can do for you!!!
Anyway - use it - don’t use it - interesting though!!!
Hello - glad to see I’m not the only ‘dedicated’ one!!!
I just read the chapter again (and again) and - unless I’m missing it - there is actually no explanation as to ‘why’ just that they WILL ALWAYS be at some point in the future (according to the book).
In looking at the charts it EVEN happens of EUR/USD (sometime later I’ll put the data down on paper and post this information with an accompanying chart).
Just quickly (I have to go and make lunch - we’re having ANOTHER ‘braai’ or ‘barbeque’ here today) - last week EUR/USD closed at 1.3876 on Friday night and it opened on Sunday night at 1.3866. Now - you may say to yourself - ‘so what - that’s only 10 PIP’s - less the spread of let’s say 3 PIP’s - so you’re only making 7 PIP’s - not worth the trouble’ - right - BUT - NOW let’s say that these are GUARANTEED PIP’s - that’s a different story is it not??? In other words - throw enough margin at it - so that you’re making $100 per PIP - that’s $700 profit on one position in a matter of hours - throw even MORE margin at it - it could be $7000!!! Get the picture??? (I only NEED about $10K or $12K to pay EVERYTHING at the end of each month). The gap was closed, by the way, sometime between Sunday and Monday - I suppose I could get the exact times by looking at the 1 minute chart - if necessary!!!
Just checked (for interest sake): the gap was closed 7 hours later.
Now this COULD get even more interesting BECAUSE there are SOME pairs that WILL have a ‘gap’ just about EVERY DAY e.g. USD/RUB. Why? Because this pair can only be traded at certain times i.e. not 24 hours SO let’s say for example that after trading closed on this pair there was some HUGE event that took place between the close of trading on this pair today and the opening of trading on this pair the next day - it could be HUGE because the ‘payoff’ of this pair is very high (OK - so is the spread - but I suppose that’s a judgement call).
Anyway - to be sure - I need to ‘delve’ more deeply into this - but so far - I CAN see that there definitely IS a gap at least once a week (can you believe it’s taken me nearly 42 years to learn what ‘the gap’ is) - BUT - the risk involved here needs to be assessed (according to the book the gap is NOT NECESSARILY filled the next day and could take DAYS to fill so you have to make sure you have LOADS of margin to make REAL money out of this).
Actually - if I have a good look at the above statement of mine - Parabolic SAR - you’re STILL the best!!!
Sorry - I just interrupted my lunch to come and post this because something has been ‘bugging me’ (and I don’t want somebody trying this tonight and swearing at me tomorrow - AND - I’m ‘on the Rum’ again - so I might NOT make it back here tonight - it’s a public holiday here tomorrow so I can AFFORD to have a ‘slight headache’)!!!
Anyway - be VERY careful if you’re going to try this (at least until we’ve ‘checked it out’ more thoroughly).
What’s been ‘bugging me’ is this: remember that I said in a previous post that Delta does not give you a ‘Sunday’ candle or bar WHICH IS GOOD? BUT - if you are going to ‘give this a bash’ just make VERY sure that when you open the position that your opening price IS NOT ALREADY equal to the closing price of Friday i.e. if there is an hour delay (so that you’re not getting a ‘Sunday’ candle or bar) the price COULD already have moved so that it’s back to the closing price of Friday by the time you get the new candle or bar - in which case THERE IS NO LONGER A GAP!!!
Look - this is obviously a ‘valid’ trading idea - but - like anything else - it needs some more ‘analysis’ before any REAL money is ‘put on the table’!!! Like I said (from the book) - it DOES work on stocks etc. etc. etc. - I just HAPPENED to notice ‘the forex gap’ this morning!!!
And - then again - is this not just trying to make a ‘quick buck’ - which is against EVERYTHING we’ve worked for on this thread???
Man - I ‘gotta tell ya’ - this thread AT VERY LEAST has some ‘class’ - you will not BELIEVE the ‘sh1t’ that is going on in some of the other threads on babypips!!!
Anyway - what I’d like to know - is ‘WHERE THE F’ IS EVERYONE’???
It’s Sunday night people!!! TRADING IS OPEN EVERYONE!!!
On a ‘SERIOUS’ note - please feel free to skip over my (our) ‘classy’ posts - BUT - PLEASE - could someone give me (us) an answer to the DST question!!!
Hey there, i’ve been trying this SAR only system on shorter time frames and its been working quite fine! Have any of you had an experience trying to trade with this system on a shorter time frame? If so, did you use any more indicators?
